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[Dirtyshubb]

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)

Panelbase previously showed the largest gap (15 points) and has by far the most Labour-punitive weighting.

I look forward to ICM with interest.

So the gap has closed by 7 points im assuming?

Things seem to be gaining a little speed. Lets hope this continues and it hurts the Tories even more.

On a side note I just had my first Tory Ad on YouTube, absolutely disgusting. The fact they even included reporters asking a question as an attack when if you watch the actual video Corbyn shut her down straight away and she looked foolish.

Lastly, are there any good UK based progressive podcasts around? I watch TYT, Secular Talk and The Humanist Report for US news but it just seems that the UK are far less engaged with politics from my searching on YouTube so the only ones I can find is big news channels and random people videos with less than a dozen views.

 

[TimmmV]

what in the name of fuck



i know some of yall joke that she a robot, but god damn.

Its like reading a transcript with one of those early experimental AI chat bots

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Also something I thought was interesting: this should be a really good test of methodologies, because Panelbase and YouGov have identical unweighted samples (which is statistically is unlikely to begin with!). All of the difference is in how honest they expect voters to be and how they expect undecideds to break.

 

[Daemul]

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)

Panelbase previously showed the largest gap (15 points) and has by far the most Labour-punitive weighting.

I look forward to ICM with interest.

Guys, I fucking starting to believe.

 

[ferrasvansen]

The momentum change is staggering, at this rate a Labour win though slim is now feasible, unbelievable swings and volitility in the electorate just now. I reckon tories will end largest party in a hung parliament.

 

[CCS]

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)

Panelbase previously showed the largest gap (15 points) and has by far the most Labour-punitive weighting.

I look forward to ICM with interest.

The hype that was promised

 

[The Friendly Monster]

What an absolute clusterfuck from the Tories, May is truly dreadful.

I would have mixed feelings about a Tory minority government or Labour getting into government. Brexit will surely be an absolute disaster and I want the Tories to fucking own it.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

A Labour win isn't happening - not even largest party. Stick with thinking of a hung parliament without a workable Con/DUP/UUP block as the best possible result and you won't get too disappointed.

 

[IlGialloMondadori]

I've asked a few idiots at my work who they'd vote for, and they responded the same, "Conservative. I'm not Conservative, but we need to vote Conservative to get the best Brexit."

Man, wtf. Super depressing. I want May out.

 

[D4Danger]

A Labour win isn't happening - not even largest party. Stick with thinking of a hung parliament without a workable Con/DUP/UUP block as the best possible result and you won't get too disappointed.

I'll just be happy if the Tory majority is under triple digits and Labour aren't completely obliterated.

 

[pulsemyne]

And after last night it's going to get worse for the tories. Mays no show went down very badly. Also that Panelbase poll is taken over several days and those type of polls tend to iron out any shift to a party happening closer to today so what you seeing there is the clusterfuck of the past week starting to make an impact. 8 points on panel base and the 6 from Survation must be worrying for the tories.

 

[KingSnake]

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)

Panelbase previously showed the largest gap (15 points) and has by far the most Labour-punitive weighting.

I look forward to ICM with interest.

This kind of gap would most likely lead to hung parliament, right?

Anyhow, no matter what methodology is used the trend is pretty obvious in all the polls, there was a big shift in momentum towards Labour that doesn't seem to stop yet.

 

[King_Moc]

That panelbase poll gives genuine cause for optimism.

 

[ReplacementPelican]

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)

Panelbase previously showed the largest gap (15 points) and has by far the most Labour-punitive weighting.

I look forward to ICM with interest.

Are there any polls that take into account seats? Like, I get that this is good for Labour supporters but if the uptick in voters is within strong Labour seats then it wont translate to much. Right?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

This kind of gap would most likely lead to hung parliament, right?

Anyhow, no matter what methodology is used the trend is pretty obvious in all the polls, there was a big shift in momentum towards Labour that doesn't seem to stop yet.

I think you'd need a gap of 6 and below for hung parliament to be on the cards. 8 is still Con majority - probably even a few gains.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Are there any polls that take into account seats? Like, I get that this is good for Labour supporters but if the uptick in voters is within strong Labour seats then it wont translate to much. Right?

You're quite right.
That's what makes predicting FPTP results so hard.

 

[KingSnake]

I think you'd need a gap of 6 and below for hung parliament to be on the cards. 8 is still Con majority - probably even a few gains.

Ah right, 6 was the magic number. There is still time to be reached even in the less optimistic polls if May doesn't stop the leaking.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

Are there any polls that take into account seats? Like, I get that this is good for Labour supporters but if the uptick in voters is within strong Labour seats then it wont translate to much. Right?

Only the YouGov one from a couple days ago that kickstarted shit going cray cray as far as I know. Would love to see more.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

A Labour win isn't happening - not even largest party. Stick with thinking of a hung parliament without a workable Con/DUP/UUP block as the best possible result and you won't get too disappointed.

At this point I would be content with May being re-elected with exactly the same or smaller majority she has now, and watch her squirm during the most awkward and empty victory speech ever delivered.

 

[Coriolanus]

At this point I would be content with May being re-elected with exactly the same or smaller majority she has now, and watch her squirm during the most awkward and empty victory speech ever delivered.

She'd most likely deliver exactly the same speech, regardless of the result. That person appears to simply be unable to adapt to new events, and will strongly parrot whatever is presented to her. Stably.

 

[King_Moc]

At this point I would be content with May being re-elected with exactly the same or smaller majority she has now, and watch her squirm during the most awkward and empty victory speech ever delivered.

Yep, her leadership would be reduced to a joke and she'd pretty much have to resign.

In the most strong and stable manner possible, of course.

 

[Beefy]

CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

(via PanelbaseMD / 26 May - 01 Jun)

Panelbase previously showed the largest gap (15 points) and has by far the most Labour-punitive weighting.

I look forward to ICM with interest.

So:

YouGov: 3pt
Survation: 6pt
Kantar: 10pt
FT poll of polls: 9pt
ICM: 12pt
ComRes: 12pt
Panelbase: 8pt

 

[liquidtmd]

In terms of meltdowns, I'm half expecting May's own 'covfefe' moment at this rate.

 

[kmag]

So:

YouGov: 3pt
Survation: 6pt
Kantar: 10pt
FT poll of polls: 9pt
ICM: 12pt
ComRes: 12pt
Panelbase: 8pt

The poll of polls should be closing a bit with these latest polls.

 

[Stuart444]

I've asked a few idiots at my work who they'd vote for, and they responded the same, "Conservative. I'm not Conservative, but we need to vote Conservative to get the best Brexit."

Man, wtf. Super depressing. I want May out.

I don't know how anyone can think that if they have ever seen May speak at all

She is just not a leader.

 

[TimmmV]

May having a weak government that can't do too much heinous shite over their 5 year term is probably the best possible outcome really.

If Labour manage to get a hung parliament the press in this country will do their best to paint them responsible for anything bad that comes from leaving the EU (and lets face it, there is going to be a lot of it)

I don't know how anyone can think that if they have ever seen May speak at all

She is just not a leader.

Turn off brain. Regurgitate election slogans. Repeat.

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

So my old boss gave me 2 jobs and helped kickstart my life (7 years ago), but recently he keeps sharing stuff like this and it makes me so mad.

I feel like unfriending him, but I'm torn! Dammit, I thought he was better than this.

 

[WhateverItTakes]

May having a weak government that can't do too much heinous shite over their 5 year term is probably the best possible outcome really.

If Labour manage to get a hung parliament the press in this country will do their best to paint them responsible for anything bad that comes from leaving the EU (and lets face it, there is going to be a lot of it)

That'll suck, but I still think it's worthwhile. Brexit is a big big thing for the future of this country, I don't trust the conservatives at all with navigating it.

But yeah whoever's in power during negotiations is probably gonna lose it when the inevitable election is called afterwards.

 

[Mr. Sam]

Lastly, are there any good UK based progressive podcasts around? I watch TYT, Secular Talk and The Humanist Report for US news but it just seems that the UK are far less engaged with politics from my searching on YouTube so the only ones I can find is big news channels and random people videos with less than a dozen views.

The New Statesmen podcast might be too centre-left for your liking but I find it informative and entertaining.

 

[liquidtmd]

I don't know how anyone can think that if they have ever seen May speak at all

She is just not a leader.

She's not even a good public speaker compared to her peers, let alone a Leader.

She can't get her point across and out-debate even Corbyn, who has been OK lately but not great - in terms of the Brexit negotiation intricacies, the EU Brexit team are going to destroy her.

 

[D4Danger]

So my old boss gave me 2 jobs and helped kickstart my life (7 years ago), but recently he keeps sharing stuff like this and it makes me so mad.

I feel like unfriending him, but I'm torn! Dammit, I thought he was better than this.

I'd unfriend him just for the amount of jpg compression used in that image

 

[Dirtyshubb]

The New Statesmen podcast might be too centre-left for your liking but I find it informative and entertaining.

Thanks for your suggestion, I will check it out.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So:

YouGov: 3pt
Survation: 6pt
Kantar: 10pt
ICM: 12pt
ComRes: 12pt
Panelbase: 8pt

Lots of these are quite old, though. I've ordered them by date like so:

**Panelbase (01 Jun): Con +8
YouGov (31 May): Con +3
**Kantar (30 May): Con +10
**ICM (29 May): Con +12
Survation (27 May): Con +6
**ComRes (26 May): Con +12
ORB (25 May) Con +6
Opinium (24 May) Con +10

I've also split them into two groups - those that more aggressively weight (Panelbase, Kantar, ICM, ComRes) and those that more lightly weight (YouGov, Survation, ORB, Opinium).

 

[PowderedToast]

the protest banger i've been waiting for

 

[travisbickle]

As a person of centre-right leanings, I have bloody no one to vote for who are even close to my viewpoints.

The tory campaign has been a bloody shambles. Going far too right-wing for my liking and Theresa May is looking less 'strong and stable' each passing day.
The Labour campaign is way too left wing. I'm certain in my mind they will break this country financially. Their manifesto scares me.
The Lib Dems support a second referendum. I certainly don't. And Tim Farron has questionable personal views for me.

Brilliant. I might as well start my own party for the next GE. All the main English parties suck.

I'd be quite interested if you wrote down a few policies you would enact that aren't in the current manifestos.

 

[Simplet]

I feel so bad for you guys in the UK, your election is like a reverse german election where both main parties are utter shite. I couldn't even come up with a decent outcome if I could decide the elections results myself, except maybe for some kind of miraculous Lib dem victory. Even that might turn out to be for the worse though if they have to deal with brexit while they clearly don't support it...

 

[TrutaS]

So Corbyn in his latest speech just said he'd like the benefits of single market but end free movement? That's ridiculous, just stop it with the free-movement restriction to and from europe!!

 

[Rubbish King]

So my old boss gave me 2 jobs and helped kickstart my life (7 years ago), but recently he keeps sharing stuff like this and it makes me so mad.

I feel like unfriending him, but I'm torn! Dammit, I thought he was better than this.

PM him and try to get him onside mate, you can do it!

Lots of these are quite old, though. I've ordered them by date like so:

**Panelbase (01 Jun): Con +8
YouGov (31 May): Con +3
**Kantar (30 May): Con +10
**ICM (29 May): Con +12
Survation (27 May): Con +6
**ComRes (26 May): Con +12
ORB (25 May) Con +6
Opinium (24 May) Con +10

I've also split them into two groups - those that more aggressively weight (Panelbase, Kantar, ICM, ComRes) and those that more lightly weight (YouGov, Survation, ORB, Opinium).

my hero

So Corbyn in his latest speech just said he'd like the benefits of single market but end free movement? That's ridiculous, just stop it with the free-movement restriction to and from europe!!

Hey man, we need him to win

 

[Filthy Casual]

the protest banger i've been waiting for

Amazing

 

[Dirtyshubb]

the protest banger i've been waiting for

Hahaha this is great, watched a few of Taxi drivers videos recently so this is especially funny.

 

[*Splinter]

I feel so bad for you guys in the UK, your election is like a reverse german election where both main parties are utter shite. I couldn't even come up with a decent outcome if I could decide the elections results myself, except maybe for some kind of miraculous Lib dem victory. Even that might turn out to be for the worse though if they have to deal with brexit while they clearly don't support it...

Take the blame for something they don't even support?

Classic Lib Dem manoeuvre

 

[JonathanEx]

So we've discussed what the best-but-still-plausible outcome is for leftyGAF. But here's my question - what would be the *funniest* result?

I think... if she gained 1 seat. That'd be pretty damn funny to have justified the expense of the campaign, and she'd simultaneously won and lost by their own standards.

Or lost one seat. It being that little a change is funniest, surely?

 

[Zaph]

It's beyond parody at this point

 

[*Splinter]

So we've discussed what the best-but-still-plausible outcome is for leftyGAF. But here's my question - what would be the *funniest* result?

I think... if she gained 1 seat. That'd be pretty damn funny to have justified the expense of the campaign, and she'd simultaneously won and lost by their own standards.

Or lost one seat. It being that little a change is funniest, surely?

No change, surely

By your own logic even. All this for... Nothing

 

[Deleted member 231381]

So we've discussed what the best-but-still-plausible outcome is for leftyGAF. But here's my question - what would be the *funniest* result?

I think... if she gained 1 seat. That'd be pretty damn funny to have justified the expense of the campaign, and she'd simultaneously won and lost by their own standards.

Or lost one seat. It being that little a change is funniest, surely?

Not a single seat changes, methinks. She'd look like a right tit.

 

[JonathanEx]

Yes, you're both right. No change to the numbers has got to be it really hasn't it.

 

[Pookmunki]

So my old boss gave me 2 jobs and helped kickstart my life (7 years ago), but recently he keeps sharing stuff like this and it makes me so mad.

I feel like unfriending him, but I'm torn! Dammit, I thought he was better than this.

What bothers me the most about these Facebook images is the poor grammar and punctuation.

It's a bit rich slagging off someone's education without a single full stop, question mark and apostrophes in the wrong place. It's fast food takeaway menu level and that alone should put people off.

 

[twofoldd]

Lastly, are there any good UK based progressive podcasts around? I watch TYT, Secular Talk and The Humanist Report for US news but it just seems that the UK are far less engaged with politics from my searching on YouTube so the only ones I can find is big news channels and random people videos with less than a dozen views.

BBC's daily Electioncast is good, as is Pienaar's Politics. The New Statesman, Financial Times, Polling Matters, and Times Red Box podcasts are good too.

 

[kmag]

Not a single seat changes, methinks. She'd look like a right tit.

She'd be whittering on about the vote percentage like it was some sort of massive brexit mandate.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Andrew Neil reporting that his interview with Tim Farron is a bit tetchy. Looks like I was right in my supposition that he was going to hammer Farron's faith for 30 minutes.