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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Random piece of trivia: on the basis of that poll, Corbyn would do better than '97 Blair did in England.

If the Liberal Democrats hadn't doubled down on the EU stuff and had focused on hitting the Conservatives from the economics side (Theresa May interfering in markets blah blah), this could have been a fun election. I don't get the feeling historians will be especially kind to Farron.
 

*Splinter

Member
If anyone tries to blame Corbyn for this potential loss they are out of their mind.

He has pretty much done everything right and has helped bring the party back into contenders. You want someone to blame, try attacking the Tories and media for lying and distorting the truth so much in the first place.

If Labour lose they need to keep Corbyn and build on this movement. Dont start from the beginning, make him your hero. We have seen the more people see him, the more they like him and become engaged. Letting him go or moving to a more central position would be a grave mistake.
But the Tories have done everything in their power to cause a Labour win :p
 
If we did get a result like that (I still think it will be 10% + to Conservatives personally) how would the PLP react? Do you think there's any chance they would shut up, stand behind Corbyn's manifesto as a clear route forward for the party, or would they instantly revert to demanding Corbyn's resignation and claim the left can never win outright?

I'd never bet against in-fighting as a default Labour response these days, but if Labour improve their position and the Tories see a reduced majority I think that that - plus Corbyn's reasonable performance during the GE campaign - will see less public dissent and a more unified front from the party. Given that there is no clear successor to Corbyn, I just don't see the appetite for a leadership challenge if the results are reasonably good (assuming here that they aren't going to win the GE; I think that's out of reach, but a solid showing and a reduction of the Tory majority will qualify as "good")
 

Dougald

Member
You can blame Corbyn for a lot since he became leader, but frankly I think Labours campaign this GE has been pretty much on-point and he has to get credit for that.

I'd even vote Labour now if it weren't for FPTP
 
If anyone tries to blame Corbyn for this potential loss they are out of their mind.

He has pretty much done everything right and has helped bring the party back into contenders. You want someone to blame, try attacking the Tories and media for lying and distorting the truth so much in the first place.

If Labour lose they need to keep Corbyn and build on this movement. Dont start from the beginning, make him your hero. We have seen the more people see him, the more they like him and become engaged. Letting him go or moving to a more central position would be a grave mistake.

Corbyn has tons of past baggage which is an attack ad producer's wet dream though. It's arguable that if Corbyn wasn't leader Labour would actually win. He has exceeded my expectations a lot though. I'm pleasantly surprised.
 

StayDead

Member
If anyone tries to blame Corbyn for this potential loss they are out of their mind.

He has pretty much done everything right and has helped bring the party back into contenders. You want someone to blame, try attacking the Tories and media for lying and distorting the truth so much in the first place.

If Labour lose they need to keep Corbyn and build on this movement. Dont start from the beginning, make him your hero. We have seen the more people see him, the more they like him and become engaged. Letting him go or moving to a more central position would be a grave mistake.

Honestly I hate Corbyn for his stance on Brexit, but I'll be damned if I don't respect him a huge amount. When he talks to people he genuinly seems to come across as if he cares which you don't get with most politicians.

He's been backing his own ideals for the past 40 or so years and never has he given up on them. He's come out time and time again in the build up to this election to prove just how endearing he is.

I hate the Media for running a smear campaign against him.
 
Corbyn has tons of past baggage which is an attack ad producer's wet dream though. It's arguable that if Corbyn wasn't leader Labour would actually win. He has exceeded my expectations a lot though. I'm pleasantly surprised.

If Corbyn wasn't leader the manifesto wouldn't be anywhere near as popular. Swings and roundabouts
 

sammex

Member
Have we seen many celebrity endorsements in this election cycle?

Have a feeling James Corden and David Beckham may be trotted out next week for
the Conservatives
.

DBT6QI9W0AQKQHV.jpg
 

jem0208

Member
Corbyn has tons of past baggage which is an attack ad producer's wet dream though. It's arguable that if Corbyn wasn't leader Labour would actually win. He has exceeded my expectations a lot though. I'm pleasantly surprised.
Corbyn and Labour have definitely done a decent job, however, I feel like the swing has more been due to how absymal May and Tories have been.
 
So Corbyn... trying to think what I make of him now.

He's done a decent job of the campaign. Has come across fairly well in interviews. He's pushed the party to have a manifesto which is actually probably better than 'someone playing it safe to go for the middle' would, and hasn't hugely messed up.

I still have doubts over his team, his ability to get to the denial in the best way for interviews, and other aspects. There are points I feel they could have done more to exploit the Tory weaknesses, but they've had their moments like just turning up for the debate, regardless of how that actually went.

I can't tell if they'd do better or worse without him really. Oddly, his difference has really helped him stand out, but that doesn't mean I don't think it could be improved with a bit better media training etc.

I worry him staying on would be 'baggage', (more 'oh just go the people didn't want you') but if he decided to pass and recommend a younger leader candidate, hmm.

I'm genuinely a bit unsure what I think would be best.
 
Random piece of trivia: on the basis of that poll, Corbyn would do better than '97 Blair did in England.

If the Liberal Democrats hadn't doubled down on the EU stuff and had focused on hitting the Conservatives from the economics side (Theresa May interfering in markets blah blah), this could have been a fun election. I don't get the feeling historians will be especially kind to Farron.

Lib Dems are fundamentally pro European. It's in their DNA. And I don't see what's wrong with sticking up for the EU and saying hard Brexit is irresponsible. Only change I would make is drop the 2nd referendum and say 'join the EEA'. Simple and clear message.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Andy Murray tweeting about pro-Scottish Independence was the best. He's a dirty YES voter!!! .... but he's the British Tennis player that actually wins

A356jiI.gif


Celebrities getting involved in politics is usually always a bit of a laugh.
 

kmag

Member
Times reckon David Davis could be out at Brexit if the Tories win, replaced with Ben Gummer (supposedly the best and brightest the tories have although if that's the case you'd think he'd be in the cabinet). Davis going to Home office, and presumably Rudd to the Treasury. May also wants to park Boris as Party chairman, presumably to put Hammond back as foreign secretary
 
So Corbyn... trying to think what I make of him now.

He's done a decent job of the campaign. Has come across fairly well in interviews. He's pushed the party to have a manifesto which is actually probably better than 'someone playing it safe to go for the middle' would, and hasn't hugely messed up.

I still have doubts over his team, his ability to get to the denial in the best way for interviews, and other aspects. There are points I feel they could have done more to exploit the Tory weaknesses, but they've had their moments like just turning up for the debate, regardless of how that actually went.

I can't tell if they'd do better or worse without him really. Oddly, his difference has really helped him stand out, but that doesn't mean I don't think it could be improved with a bit better media training etc.

I worry him staying on would be 'baggage', (more 'oh just go the people didn't want you') but if he decided to pass and recommend a younger leader candidate, hmm.

I'm genuinely a bit unsure what I think would be best.

If he stepped down there's no guarantee that the PLP, who are still riddled with slugs, would allow a candidate from the Corbyn wing to even be nominated for the leadership. Not to mention that the similarly beslugged NEC could fiddle the rules again to try to exclude new members.

Corbyn isn't a permanent solution, but if he leaves before his people have control of the party then it all may have been in vain
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Lib Dems are fundamentally pro European. It's in their DNA. And I don't see what's wrong with sticking up for the EU and saying hard Brexit is irresponsible. Only change I would make is drop the 2nd referendum and say 'join the EEA'. Simple and clear message.

Because it doesn't win votes. As I've pointed out, Labour are getting pretty close to their 1997 performance in England if we're to believe the more positive polls. The difference is the SNP in Scotland, which, fine, isn't so much a problem (although still one in parts) because they won't back a Conservative government, and the failure of the Liberal Democrats in England. That failure is because being fundamentally pro-European is being fundamentally vote-losing. Even people who think we think we shouldn't have left think you're being dishonest and deceitful by arguing joining the EEA or second referendum.
 
Conservative-GAF sitting back and thinking do these optimists never learn from current day polls? *Shy Tories assemble*

Conservative majority. Morning of Friday the 9th, despair, tears and outrage in this topic.
and everyone back to blaming Corbyn

I'm already eating so much crow about Corbyn, he's got more of the country on message behind him than I ever thought he might.

Question is for next go round is if this is his ceiling, or if a few years of Labour all being on the same page and on message would a real chance for the next go round.
 

*Splinter

Member
So Corbyn... trying to think what I make of him now.

He's done a decent job of the campaign. Has come across fairly well in interviews. He's pushed the party to have a manifesto which is actually probably better than 'someone playing it safe to go for the middle' would, and hasn't hugely messed up.

I still have doubts over his team, his ability to get to the denial in the best way for interviews, and other aspects. There are points I feel they could have done more to exploit the Tory weaknesses, but they've had their moments like just turning up for the debate, regardless of how that actually went.

I can't tell if they'd do better or worse without him really. Oddly, his difference has really helped him stand out, but that doesn't mean I don't think it could be improved with a bit better media training etc.

I worry him staying on would be 'baggage', (more 'oh just go the people didn't want you') but if he decided to pass and recommend a younger leader candidate, hmm.

I'm genuinely a bit unsure what I think would be best.
He's been great for the GE campaign but was pretty naff as opposition leader. He's overseen a massive swing toward Labour support but he also bares some responsibility for them being in such a bad place to begin with.

I can't decide either. Whether he stays or goes I hope they keep to this kind of manifesto. I don't think the policies are the problem.
 

RulkezX

Member
Corbyn has been decent at best, the Tories have been a sham though.

I still think Corbyn can not and never will lead the country, but Labour look like they could be electable again which is the most important thing going forward.
 
If he stepped down there's no guarantee that the PLP, who are still riddled with slugs, would allow a candidate from the Corbyn wing to even be nominated for the leadership. Not to mention that the similarly beslugged NEC could fiddle the rules again to try to exclude new members.

Corbyn isn't a permanent solution, but if he leaves before his people have control of the party then it all may have been in vain

Yes under that hypothetical I was assuming that McDonnell etc would get the rule change they wanted through. Which in itself is another fun in-fight to happen.

He's been great for the GE campaign but was pretty naff as opposition leader. He's overseen a massive swing toward Labour support but he also bares some responsibility for them being in such a bad place to begin with.

I think that's a good summary.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
He's not my ideal candidate for an election, but I must admit Corbyn has probably succeeded on his own terms. The Labour Party will fundamentally change as a result of this election.
 
So Corbyn... trying to think what I make of him now.

He's done a decent job of the campaign. Has come across fairly well in interviews. He's pushed the party to have a manifesto which is actually probably better than 'someone playing it safe to go for the middle' would, and hasn't hugely messed up.

I still have doubts over his team, his ability to get to the denial in the best way for interviews, and other aspects. There are points I feel they could have done more to exploit the Tory weaknesses, but they've had their moments like just turning up for the debate, regardless of how that actually went.

I can't tell if they'd do better or worse without him really. Oddly, his difference has really helped him stand out, but that doesn't mean I don't think it could be improved with a bit better media training etc.

I worry him staying on would be 'baggage', (more 'oh just go the people didn't want you') but if he decided to pass and recommend a younger leader candidate, hmm.

I'm genuinely a bit unsure what I think would be best.

If they outperform expectations i.e. they at the very least don't lose a significant number of seats then I don't see the value in them trying and failing to dump him again.
They'll lose all the momentum they clearly have at the moment, there's no one better to step up, and we're then back to square one where Corbyn will hang on and any chance of being an effective opposition and holding the Tories feet to the fire over the invitably shit job they're going to do with Brexit will be overshadowed by everyone focussing on their internal squabbling.
 
That failure is because being fundamentally pro-European is being fundamentally vote-losing.

I don't think it loses votes, but it does not win as many votes as being pro-leave, which is why we have seen the Tories gain significantly in this election as well. This has been a Brexit election, but when opposition to the issue of the day gets you called a Britain-hating anti-democrat, it is hard to have a fair discussion.

The real issue with the LD campaign has been visibility and brand identity. We're still smeared by coalition too, and Farron and his advisors are going to need to review his media strategy, which has been hit-or-miss this election. We'll bounce back, but it takes a good few years to do so.

The important thing is that we don't endure an embarrassing night - and everything I'm hearing internally is that we're expecting to be up on seats, just not as much as we'd like. After that, we will have core issues to rally around that will help in the years ahead - social justice, and being a pro-business, pro-EU party.

We should have another two years at least to properly rebuild before there's any likelihood of another election. If we and Labour do well, it will keep the Tory majority slim and increase the chances that May has to go to the country again. It will be then that we can make a proper break with the recent past and return to winning ways. :)
 

Sordid

Member
Your leaflets are so aggressive lol. Got my Labour/LibDeb recently and they both say "Vote for us and we'll oppose indyref2" nothing about any day jobs or anything. Don't think we have gotten tory leaflet yet but last election they didnt even get double digit % of votes so they don't have a leg to stand on anyways

Weird, I've had similar ones to Audioboxer. Same 'Labour and the Lib Dems can't win here' graph from the Tories but with Labour and the Lib Dems about 5% each. All leaflets bar the SNP are aggressive and negative whilst the SNP one said "here's what we've done and here's what we're hoping to do". The difference is insane.

Edit: My favourite leaflet line is still 'only RUTH DAVIDSON'S CANDIDATE can stop the SNP' with the blokes actual name underneath. Wish I took a picture of it.

Edit 2: Refusing to get too excited about these polls but I have hope that things won't be as bad as they were predicted to be back when the election was called.
 

WhatNXt

Member
I have to say this.. Without Corbyn, we would have a shit manifesto and the party would be being led by shit, personality-void carsalesmen like Owen Smith or Angela Eagle. They would be crumbling worse than May is now. For all his critics, and all the infighting, Corbyn has stayed strong, resolute and righted the ship. I personally feel he's been proving critics wrong for some time. Had the party gotten behind him sooner, this would have been a truly truly exciting and different election. I'm glad they're behind him now anyway.

There's still a week to go and the CPS have just charged the conservative in South Thanet. A lot can happen in a week.
 
Random piece of trivia: on the basis of that poll, Corbyn would do better than '97 Blair did in England.

If the Liberal Democrats hadn't doubled down on the EU stuff and had focused on hitting the Conservatives from the economics side (Theresa May interfering in markets blah blah), this could have been a fun election. I don't get the feeling historians will be especially kind to Farron.

It seems like Farron's staunched the bleeding, and grown the membership - how he's viewed in the future will more likely be dependant on the acts of others. With hindsight, it's obvious David Steel was fantastic for the party - but had Ashdown not come in and made huge gains in '97, then history would've been far less kind to Steel.

Corbyn has tons of past baggage which is an attack ad producer's wet dream though. It's arguable that if Corbyn wasn't leader Labour would actually win. He has exceeded my expectations a lot though. I'm pleasantly surprised.

This is where I come down. Even Ed Miliband would've beaten May - Corbyn's personality is what makes it a contest. People are voting Labour in spite of him.

Christ. How reliable is that?

Ipsos MORI has a great reputation for a good reason.
 
Corbyn has tons of past baggage which is an attack ad producer's wet dream though. It's arguable that if Corbyn wasn't leader Labour would actually win. He has exceeded my expectations a lot though. I'm pleasantly surprised.
While the argument could easily be made that he does put some people off from voting (because its true), I think the power of PR is actually weakening on him and is making him stronger.

For every “I hate Corbyn and wont vote labour” message i have seen one saying “Watching Corbyn speak actually makes me like him” or “God the press just keep going on about the past, focus on the issues like Corbyn is”.

I think those who would never vote for Labour because of one person wouldn’t vote for them anyway and are likely to fall prey of the Tory PR machine of sound bites and empty words anyway so forget them. For everyone else though, keep showing them Corbyn and giving him the platform and visibility he needs to focus on the progressive manifesto they want to put in place.

Use the medias bias against them and show how hypocritical they are or how they cant attack him on policy and help change the public’s perception of not only him but the oppositions attacks.
 

CCS

Banned
Labour need to go full fake news on this. Like, Tories stealing elections through fraud, conspiracy from the top type stuff. Lie put their arses if necessary, just make as many people as possible convinced that the Tories are trying to fix the election. Have to fight fire with fire.
 

Go_Ly_Dow

Member
Come on, hoping for one more major Tory fuck up that the media can't ignore before polling day.

GIVE ME TOO ME MAY, A BIG JUICY STABLE N STRONG FUCK UP.
 
If this were true I think the Lib Dems would be doing a lot better though.

No, we've seen that there's little appetite for a pro-EU party. There's enough for one to exist and win seats, but not enough of one to form a big force... yet. It will be different once the economy takes the Brexit hit.

Should be noted BTW that after this election there will be an automatic leadership election within a year within the LDs. No such rule in the Labour Party!
 

Audioboxer

Member
I'm already eating so much crow about Corbyn, he's got more of the country on message behind him than I ever thought he might.

Question is for next go round is if this is his ceiling, or if a few years of Labour all being on the same page and on message would a real chance for the next go round.

He's a decent orator and May has been playing one hell of a disaster piece in recent weeks. If the country at large still go and vote for a Tory majority a lot of the Corbyn love will instantly go away. It's what is going to make election night a bit mental. From, "I came round to Corbyn and he's quite good!" to hours later and "Corbyn is literally the most terrible MP ever, RESIGN!".

The polls aren't always wrong, but in recent times, the polls have been a bit of a crapshoot. A lot of May making cock-ups will end up disintegrating into the 24hour news cycle. As long as she doesn't shit the bed 24~48 hours before polling you'll get people in booths who "can't remember" what happened/was said one week ago. The "strong and stable" slogan etched in their brains will divert that pencil to cross Tory.
 
Latest IpsosMORI/Standard Poll:

Con 45% (-4)
Lab 40% (+6)
Lib Dems 7% (nc)
UKIP 4% (nc)

Down from a 15 point lead in their last poll.
Look. I get the people saying 'lol polls', 'lol Brexit', 'lol, polls said Clinton would win the popular vote but she actually did so the polls weren't wrong' but that really misses a massive point here.

This poll isn't significant because Labour may win. Its significant because the Tories have completely fucked it. They saw this as a home-run but the real issue is that Corbyn had years of the left and right wing media vilifying him and making the public dislike him with very little visibility awarded to him. Now, though, people actually have to listen to Corbyn and a lot of them like what he has to say. I'm not a Labour voter but fuck me, the Tories hubris has been at least partly an undoing, fucking ridiculous.
 

PJV3

Member
Labour need to go full fake news on this. Like, Tories stealing elections through fraud, conspiracy from the top type stuff. Lie put their arses if necessary, just make as many people as possible convinced that the Tories are trying to fix the election. Have to fight fire with fire.

I haven't seen much from Labour, I thought they built up a huge campaign warchest from his elections and £3 voters. The Tories seem to have bought YouTube for the election.
 
No, we've seen that there's little appetite for a pro-EU party. There's enough for one to exist and win seats, but not enough of one to form a big force... yet. It will be different once the economy takes the Brexit hit.

Should be noted BTW that after this election there will be an automatic leadership election within a year within the LDs. No such rule in the Labour Party!

Would you vote for a change if the Lib Dems finished up on, say, 12 seats?
 
Would you vote for a change if the Lib Dems finished up on, say, 12 seats?

My decision in the automatic leadership election will entirely depend on who is standing.

As it stands the obvious next leader, provided she wins, is Jo Swinson, but only if Farron was to step down.

I back Farron as leader of the Lib Dems. But by the end of our recovery, we should not be called the Lib Dems anymore. We should be a new successor party that can go forwards with a clean slate and a clear identity.
 

nOoblet16

Member
Corbyn has probably done more for Labour to get the swing than anyone has since Blair, however if Tories get a majority then everyone will turn their backs on him and blame him and his shift to left for the loss. No matter the fact that the abysmal Labour performance in 2015 was from a centrist Labour party
since anyone who wanted to vote for that just ended up voting Tory.


I really hope things work out and there's a Labour SNP coalition, they have to realise that's a better option than having the Tories be in power. It'd be the best for the country.
 
My decision in the automatic leadership election will entirely depend on who is standing.

Make it easy, Lamb v Farron.

Even though I think Lamb would be the better leader, I'm tempted to go Farron. With the Lib Dems so anonymous outside of elections, having a leader that some people recognise is vital.
 
He's a decent orator and May has been playing one hell of a disaster piece in recent weeks. If the country at large still go and vote for a Tory majority a lot of the Corbyn love will instantly go away. It's what is going to make election night a bit mental. From, "I came round to Corbyn and he's quite good!" to hours later and "Corbyn is literally the most terrible MP ever, RESIGN!".

The polls aren't always wrong, but in recent times, the polls have been a bit of a crapshoot. A lot of May making cock-ups will end up disintegrating into the 24hour news cycle. As long as she doesn't shit the bed 24~48 hours before polling you'll get people in booths who "can't remember" what happened/was said one week ago. The "strong and stable" slogan etched in their brains will divert that pencil to cross Tory.

I know for sure my stance on the dude was way different before the election. All I saw were gaffs, party turmoil and annoying stances like on nuclear power. Fundamentally I figured I'm down for a more left platform as a whole, but wanted him to be a more effective opposition, because I couldn't see his Labour getting anywhere.

But now we're here, turns out there is a decent amount of momentum, a decent amount of people who would vote for them. Maybe it's more disdain for the Tories and them running a limp campaign. Maybe people are coming round to Corbyn's unconventional ways. But whatever it is he's not causing the huge vote migration I was worried about.

It'd probably be misguided to scapegoat him for a conservative majority. Might mean he shouldn't be the face of Labour but I'd hope the party would look at how and why people voted and work out a strategy from there.
 

Lagamorph

Member
Corbyn has probably done more for Labour to get the swing than anyone has since Blair, however if Tories get a majority then everyone will turn their backs on him and blame him and his shift to left for the loss. No matter the fact that the abysmal Labour performance in 2015 was from a centrist Labour party
since anyone who wanted to vote for that just ended up voting Tory.
I'd say that May has done more for the Labour swing than anybody.
 

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
I have to say this.. Without Corbyn, we would have a shit manifesto and the party would be being led by shit, personality-void carsalesmen like Owen Smith or Angela Eagle. They would be crumbling worse than May is now. For all his critics, and all the infighting, Corbyn has stayed strong, resolute and righted the ship. I personally feel he's been proving critics wrong for some time. Had the party gotten behind him sooner, this would have been a truly truly exciting and different election. I'm glad they're behind him now anyway.
.

Not really a Corbyn fan, but it is hard to argue that he has proven to be the better option. Labour have a real identity and he has really stood out nicely.

The Labour party deserves scorn for their continual lack of support and the persistent infighting. However the Corbyn team were absolute shite for a long time. They were atrocious and mismanaged opposition. If they'd been as competent as this campaign, then it would be a different story altogether.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Make it easy, Lamb v Farron.

Even though I think Lamb would be the better leader, I'm tempted to go Farron. With the Lib Dems so anonymous outside of elections, having a leader that some people recognise is vital.

I think the Lib Dems would do better under Lamb. They're not going for student votes, they're going for the 50-something business person who thinks the Conservatives are getting too heavy-handed and authoritarian. You want someone who broadcasts this image of 'senior professional'. I personally prefer Farron to Lamb, but I'm a Labour voter so it is unsurprising I'd prefer the more left of the two. If they actually want to make progress, I think the Liberal Democrats need to tack back towards Orange Book-ism.
 
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