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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Audioboxer
Member
Maybe so but she is wrecking Labour in Scotland. Soo many see her as Tory-lite or at least chasing the Tory way of things by constantly making it out anyone supporting the SNP or even considering indyref2 is problematic. The irony there is as I've said. Many who went to the SNP in 2015 were once Labour voters and probably could still be classed as soft-SNP.
At times like this where there is SNP voters who are either uncertain of indyref2 or outright against it, Scottish Labour are managing to keep them with the SNP. Whilst also managing to push what is left of their own voting base to Conservative. Although that is possibly more to do with them failing to be as big douchebags as Davidson and her team. They cannot outdo the Tories on that front so if Dugdale had some tactical sense she'd be chasing SNP voters.
Labour Scotland is stuck in a rut and is going to be further embarrassed this GE if you ask me. In one sense it doesn't matter too much because if you are centre-left the SNP probably is a better choice. On the other hand it's just going to keep the political divide between Scotland and the rUK alive and ultimately probably will contribute towards a chance of indyref2 being successful. Which of course I do support, but it doesn't mean I can't be "neutral" and comment on how an opposition party could be doing better.
I wonder if the papers might link this back to May?
PMs chief of staff entangled in South Thanet election spending row
PMs chief of staff entangled in South Thanet election spending row
Camp Freddie
Member
I'd find it hilarious if we rejected the Bosman ruling ("We won't let the beautiful game - which we invented by the way - be governed by unelected bureaucrats in European courts") and the Rooneys and Kanes of this world find that they've lost their leverage to secure those 200K/week contracts.
And work permit rules mean that lots of talented youngsters remain in the European leagues. It seems quite common for deals with African/South American kids to fall apart (or simply not be attempted) due to work permit issues.
That's me. I very ted Labour up until 2015 when they moved too far right for my liking so I switched to SNP. Thinking about going back to labour because Corbyn is moving them way left again which is fine by me and they seem to have a chance of doing damage to the Tories.
I voted yes for independence but I have no appetite for Indy ref 2. We made our decision, asking again feels petty and pointless to me.
Between the NHS failures and the campaign cheating, it's starting to look like the Torys are trying to flood the news coverage with shit so no one knows what to yell about first. Expect May to start rocking some fox fur shoes to campaign events in the next day or so.
They caused the mess to logically they can only be the ones to fix it!
Starwolf_UK
Member
An interesting development. A friend of mine wondered when the election was announced if this expenses scandal was the reason but then I heard of it being mostly dropped and now it has come back at just the worst time 
Also I finally got a youtube ad for a non-Tory party.
*-Well it didn't actually say that but can I please make that joke of the definition of peer being member of the house of lords rather than an assigned reviewer on behalf of an academic journal.
https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/870405393780019204
Self loathing British Asian going into rant about immigrants and bogus colleges (which I thought the crackdown happened years ago). Why couldn't they be on tonight.
David Davis only needed to accuse the Shadow Brexit Minister of being a defeatist to get cheers when said person was pointing out that WTO rules are in no way a substitute for a FTA so to stop saying crap like no deal is better than a bad deal because WTO rules will be a disaster. With an example given of lamb being subject to 40% tariff...which might actually be a non-issue (although I'm sure the rest of the WTO rules are full of nasty surprises) because between the years of 2011 and 2014 the UK was self sufficient when it came to lamb...imports and exports were nearly equal (it's seasonal production hence the need to import/export in the first place) and it's still pretty close today.
Also I finally got a youtube ad for a non-Tory party.
Lib Dems
You've got it wrong. Uni of Oxford and Torygraph have done "peer reviewed"* research into this and all the bots are labour majority (1/8 of GE tweets are form bots supposedly). It's on the cover of a right wing newspaper and it gets as far as "Twitter is predominantly used by young people, who are also more likely to be Labour supporters." before telling me to insert credits to continue so I'm sure there is no spin at all. I don't even know the researchers names!
*-Well it didn't actually say that but can I please make that joke of the definition of peer being member of the house of lords rather than an assigned reviewer on behalf of an academic journal.
Well this was something:
https://twitter.com/EL4JC/status/870405393780019204
Self loathing British Asian going into rant about immigrants and bogus colleges (which I thought the crackdown happened years ago). Why couldn't they be on tonight.
David Davis only needed to accuse the Shadow Brexit Minister of being a defeatist to get cheers when said person was pointing out that WTO rules are in no way a substitute for a FTA so to stop saying crap like no deal is better than a bad deal because WTO rules will be a disaster. With an example given of lamb being subject to 40% tariff...which might actually be a non-issue (although I'm sure the rest of the WTO rules are full of nasty surprises) because between the years of 2011 and 2014 the UK was self sufficient when it came to lamb...imports and exports were nearly equal (it's seasonal production hence the need to import/export in the first place) and it's still pretty close today.
Daffy Duck
Member
The system is truly fucked up if he can still run. I mean seriously WHAT THE FUCK.
They are more likely to somehow link it to Corbyn.
Audioboxer
Member
Did you vote leave or remain? Okay, petty, if that is how you feel, but Brexit did change things up massively for the future of this country. So, "pointless", I'd contest that.
In other news I got my Conservative leaflet today
Found the good ole "back to the day job" again. One reason why Labour trying to copy this in their leaflets will further tank them for soft-SNP voters. Using Tory language.
However, there is a real possibility my area could go back to Conservative from SNP (2015). The LE results
That Lib Dem figure. Huw, PM me if you're okay?
I went to the Electoral Commission to check their guidelines and, if I'm reading this correctly, I don't believe he can stand if convicted (he is yet to appear in court):
1.12 You are also disqualified under the Representation of the People Act 1983 (as amended), if you have been convicted or have been reported guilty of a corrupt or illegal electoral practice or of an offence relating to donations.
Paging Phisheep.
Edit: One imagines if he stood, he won and then was found guilty, he would have to stand down and a by-election would be held.
However - also as per the guidelines - he would only be disqualified for a period of three years and could then stand again at the next general election, assuming it was after three years and he was so inclined.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I love it when other parties use Lib Dem tactics - the "can't win here" graph, in this case!
The reason those graphs are needed is because the Tories love the unfair FPTP system.
There's not enough context in this clip but I got the impression that he was trying to ape a Tory/UKIP type perspective and then his ranty bit is trying to point out how unreasonable that is i.e. he says 'Now you've taken X position why don't you do Y'. Unfortunately, he stumbled over a few key bits and came across as a bit mental/self-loathing.
If my interpretation is correct he was challenging the Conservative's on the basis that their 100,000 target implies they agree immigration is bad for the country, so why don't they retrospectively apply their criteria to people whom they apparently didn't have a problem with for the last 10-15 years. I think this is why he makes reference to 'bogus language colleges' - not because he personally thinks they are bogus, but because the Tories have included students in their 100,000 figure and justified that by implying bogus colleges give out visas to immigrants.
This was my take anyway.
Audioboxer
Member
There he is!
Lib Dems have pretty much died in my area though lol
Dat 2015 swing. Also why Scottish Labour chasing the Tory vote is mental as a blanket tactic across Scotland. It was a Labour bleed to SNP that wrecked them.
And then the recent local election
A referendum is only pointless if the result is not in doubt. I don't think that's true for indyref2.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Yeah, I'm as Tory as they come but I wouldn't vote for a crim.
Did you vote leave or remain? Okay, petty, if that is how you feel, but Brexit did change things up massively for the future of this country. So, "pointless", I'd contest that.
In other news I got my Conservative leaflet today
Found the good ole "back to the day job" again. One reason why Labour trying to copy this in their leaflets will further tank them for soft-SNP voters. Using Tory language.
However, there is a real possibility my area could go back to Conservative from SNP (2015). The LE results
That Lib Dem figure. Huw, PM me if you're okay?
Your leaflets are so aggressive lol. Got my Labour/LibDeb recently and they both say "Vote for us and we'll oppose indyref2" nothing about any day jobs or anything. Don't think we have gotten tory leaflet yet but last election they didnt even get double digit % of votes so they don't have a leg to stand on anyways
Once you know the details of Brexit you guys should have a choice. Getting dragged out of he EU is a big deal. If the majority still want to stay after that then cool.
JonathanEx
Member
Ah but innocent until proven crim, as I'm sure the saying goes.
Really interesting to see how this would affect the seat. I presume this is all about how local campaigns deal with it and local news coverage?
Craig is still going to win South Thanet.And it's nearly impossible for the lib Dems to keep Richmond park at this point.They same factors that helped them win Richmond park in that byelection a year or two ago are now mostly gone. Goldsmith will win back his seat in a landslide.
Audioboxer
Member
I don't have a Lib Dem leaflet, neither off the streets walking around or through the door. I guess in areas with such low turn out they're just not bothering lol.
Btw GAF what was the anti-immigration rant mentioned here? https://twitter.com/AamerAnwar/status/870408877833166848 Anyone got a link?
It's Question Time, I take it it was from the other night?
edit: Okay, it's just the latest one http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08sh4g1 (36ish mins in statement is "immigration has destroyed this country")
If I'm interpreting these guidelines correctly - again, paging Phisheep - being imprisoned ever for any period of time over one year permanently disqualifies you from standing for Parliament, but being convicted for illegal practice within an election disqualifies you for three years and being convicted for corruption disqualifies you for five. Does that not seem wonky to anyone else?
Edit: Link to the pdf if anyone wants to peruse for themselves: https://www.electoralcommission.org...7/UKPGE-Part-1-Can-you-stand-for-election.pdf
Huw_Dawson
Member
Biggest reason for lack of LD surge this election: lack of local support bases in constituencies to build on.
It'll take 10 years to rebuild. We've only had 2.
It'll take 10 years to rebuild. We've only had 2.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Latest IpsosMORI/Standard Poll:
Con 45% (-4)
Lab 40% (+6)
Lib Dems 7% (nc)
UKIP 4% (nc)
Down from a 15 point lead in their last poll.
Con 45% (-4)
Lab 40% (+6)
Lib Dems 7% (nc)
UKIP 4% (nc)
Down from a 15 point lead in their last poll.
WhateverItTakes
Banned
More gap lowering hmmm
Jesus.
That's quite a swing
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Down from a 23 point lead to a 5 point lead in 32 days. Can't remember the last time we had a swing that crazy in that short a time - beats even peak Cleggmania.
QuicheFontaine
Member
That is indeed the saying, but CPS only take cases that they think they have a better than evens chance of winning (not sure of the exact phrasing of their rules, but pretty sure that's the gist of it). So I'm happy to say probable crim.
Edit:
Sheeeeeeit, isn't the margin of error around 3%? So Labour could actually be ahead here?
ferrasvansen
Member
that momentum seems unstoppable now, might see Labour lead very soon.
itsbenoclock
Member
😨
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I mean, we have less than 6 days and they're still 5 points behind - more according to the average. Don't get overly excited.
But there is a realistic chance for a hung parliament now. Even going by the average and considering the trend that shows no slowing down yet.
Audioboxer
Member
Conservative-GAF sitting back and thinking do these optimists never learn from current day polls? *Shy Tories assemble*
Conservative majority. Morning of Friday the 9th, despair, tears and outrage in this topic.
Conservative majority. Morning of Friday the 9th, despair, tears and outrage in this topic.
and everyone back to blaming Corbyn
It is in borderline hung parliament territory though (even at 5pt it'll take a lot of seats to fall 'correctly' for that to happen)
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
It's still less likely than not.
Dirtyshubb
Member
Time is always the issue for progressives, it takes so long breaking down the oppositions pr and lies that coming back is nearly impossible (Corbyns giving it a go though).
We need to hope that everyone presses the Tories for everything they can to drive their approval rating down. Corbyn needs to hold a speech or something and bring up the election fraud, the lack of may signing against Trump, all new stuff that could still have an effect.
Last election for my area Lib dem did even worse than the tories so I was surprised to get a leaflet from them first. I'm guessing tories aren't even bothering here since SNP should dominate again
crab said:
If we did get a result like that (I still think it will be 10% + to Conservatives personally) how would the PLP react? Do you think there's any chance they would shut up, stand behind Corbyn's manifesto as a clear route forward for the party, or would they instantly revert to demanding Corbyn's resignation and claim the left can never win outright?
It's not a rollercoaster without the "up" bit.
I think the most interesting, and most inevitable outcome, of these polls is that - barring a sudden collapse in the vote share - Corbyn is definitely staying on after the election.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I mean, depends how much confidence you have in their ability to read the waters. If Corbyn gains seats, which is probable if that poll held true, then the membership will back him to the ends of the earth. They'd be Cnut trying push back the tides; resistance would be futile.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Until the exit polls say something like this I refuse to believe
Audioboxer
Member
Glasgow superior City confirmed. Edinburgh is a bit mental. Huw could be excited about Edinburgh West though
What I'm saying is, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIB DEM?
Yeah, the up, the growth in love for Corbyn and then the crashing down and back to shouting at Corbyn to resign. I mean, I hope it doesn't come to that, but one week today, this topic might be a disaster lol.
Dirtyshubb
Member
If anyone tries to blame Corbyn for this potential loss they are out of their mind.
He has pretty much done everything right and has helped bring the party back into contenders. You want someone to blame, try attacking the Tories and media for lying and distorting the truth so much in the first place.
If Labour lose they need to keep Corbyn and build on this movement. Dont start from the beginning, make him your hero. We have seen the more people see him, the more they like him and become engaged. Letting him go or moving to a more central position would be a grave mistake.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Other than "it's not going to be a rout for Labour" and the fact that my party won't secure a notably increased vote-share, I'm not putting any stock in polling now.
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