UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Spaghetti said:
Have we seen many celebrity endorsements in this election cycle?

Have a feeling James Corden and David Beckham may be trotted out next week for
the Conservatives
.
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Y'know in retrospect I'm kinda surprised there wasn't more efforts by footballers and teams to Remain. Know they aren't the sharpest tools in the box and still as the mega rich they'll avoid the consequences mostly but you'd think with their reliance on free movement and a strong pound they would've actually tried.
 
WhateverItTakes said:
Y'know in retrospect I'm kinda surprised there wasn't more efforts by footballers and teams to Remain. Know they aren't the sharpest tools in the box and still as the mega rich they'll avoid the consequences mostly but you'd think with their reliance on free movement and a strong pound they would've actually tried.
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I don't actually think Footballers care about free movement at all - they're rich and immigration systems generally only put barriers in front of poorer people while the rich can mostly move anywhere at will.
 
So today's big event, the Corbyn and May but not at the same time Question Time audience.

With the history of QT audiences I can only assume this will go badly for both as May fails to be human and Corbyn gets IRA shouted at him a lot
 
killer_clank said:
I don't actually think Footballers care about free movement at all - they're rich and immigration systems generally only put barriers in front of poorer people while the rich can mostly move anywhere at will.
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I think it's less about how rich they are and more about the fact that their clubs will take care of everything.
 
Roberto Larcos said:
I know we go over this a lot, but what are your hopeful gains for the Lib Dems? Assuming Southport and Richmond Park are gone, that's 7. If Norman Lamb struggles (as he might in a pro-Brexit seat), that's 6 - so 10 gains on top of that.
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Alright, so at the moment:

Dunbartonshire Easy
Edinburgh West
Twickenham

Those are the three near-certain gains.

Kingston and Surbiton
Cambridge
Richmond Park (nominally)

Those are a bit further out but still very good shots.

Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Eastbourne
Bath

Again, slightly further out.

Lastly, the seats I am less sure on:

Wells
Lewes
Birmingham Yardley
Cheltenham
St Albans
St Ives
Fife North West
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Ross, Lochaber and Skye
Vauxhall

We shall see - the question of this campaign is how good the local campaigns have been. The hope is that Farron did well enough on the Leader's Debate to shore up a bit of our 2015 vote, and people do not freak out about Corbyn possibly getting into Number 10.

But yeah, it is entirely possibly the LDs get to 18 seats this time, but it would be against the national trend. We could easily go down in seats, too.
 
Ashes said:
Are they seriously not on at the same time?
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I remember being told that she even refused to be in the same room as Corbyn on one show they both attended so he had to stay in a little room waiting until she was gone.

Thats strong and stable leadership examples right there that will really help with the Brexit talks.
 
Going back a few weeks, what in the fuck were the Tories thinking of announcing the fox hunting and school dinners policies?

That's like, oh, why don't we just lose 10% of our vote over some weird rural shit and a cost saving measure that will free up a pretty small amount of money, but allow us to be portrayed as cruel.

It's just such a big own goal.
 
Miles Quaritch said:
Cleared about those skeletons from his closet huh...

I know Dan Jarvis is busy raising his kids, but I still think he's the man to get Labour re-elected.
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The problem with Dan Jarvis is he looks ideal on paper, but is terminally boring in person. Hopefully he's had some speech coaching.
 
Meadows said:
Going back a few weeks, what in the fuck were the Tories thinking of announcing the fox hunting and school dinners policies?

That's like, oh, why don't we just lose 10% of our vote over some weird rural shit and a cost saving measure that will free up a pretty small amount of money, but allow us to be portrayed as cruel.

It's just such a big own goal.
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There's a real possibility that little Theresa has stared at the Brexit abyss for too long and just wants out...
 
Maledict said:
The problem with Dan Jarvis is he looks ideal on paper, but is terminally boring in person. Hopefully he's had some speech coaching.
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You're not wrong. There's lots of potential there, military background, took time off to raise a family, widower, he just needs to tap into some passion and be engaging.

Then again, look at who is going to be the next PM...being well spoken and passionate doesn't seem all that important.
 
Anyone listening to 5Live this morning? I turned on when they were into their debate but it sounded like the Tory on their panel just questioned whether climate change was real! I'll try and confirm this and post a link.

EDIT: Couldn't figure out who was speaking in the end - they don't always reintroduce each speaker. Suspect it was just a punter in the audience.
 
Maledict said:
The problem with Dan Jarvis is he looks ideal on paper, but is terminally boring in person. Hopefully he's had some speech coaching.
Click to expand...

You can get away with being boring and dull if you look like a safe pair of hands, the John Major school of leadership.
 
PJV3 said:
You can get away with being boring and dull if you look like a safe pair of hands, the John Major school of leadership.
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Maybe on the right (although you have to remember how loathed Kinnock was by a lot of people. But the left needs to be inspired. See Clinton.
 
Latest #KantarPublicUK #GE2017 #polling:
#Conservative 43% (+1)
#Labour 33% (-1)
#LibDems 11% (+2)
#UKIP 4% (nc)

http://bit.ly/2rklOti

For the curious, Kantar is like ICM and makes assumptions about DKs to reshuffle them back into the pot. That's still the major difference in this election between the pollsters - there's a lot of undecided voters (a surprisingly large amount given how close we are); it's not clear which way they'll go and you have to make a best-guess.
 
Hmm I feel that the BBC website and radio are for different audiences. On Radio 4 they didn't even mention May's non-statement about Paris Climate Change yet on the web it is the 2nd headline kept apart from the Global dismay on it.

JonathanEx said:
With the history of QT audiences I can only assume this will go badly for both as May fails to be human and Corbyn gets IRA shouted at him a lot
Click to expand...
I feel I already watched something like this a few days ago.

Still can't wait for Boris Johnson to be like "this bias from the BBC is ludicrous. If she said this in the house of commons the speaker would have to call for order to stop the cheering".

Miles Quaritch said:
No wait, that was the school breakfast policy?
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Were these the breakfasts that cost just £0.09 7p but remember everybody it's Labour that doesn't know numbers (I'm feeling this is our version of "but her emails").
The reason they've given it about 1/7th of the budget is they know breakfasts won't be taken up because getting to school 30 minutes earlier is difficult and the people using breakfasts tend be to those that live far from the school to begin with (though most my friends in this situation ate at the morrisons cafe instead) and cover a range of background whereas free school meals are exclusively poor

Honestly I'd love to see a monster raving looney party policy to put maths first in school as these politicians show it wouldn't be a bad thing. Then again maybe that is the idea keep the populace innumerate so absurd policies can't be questioned
 
2MF said:
There's a real possibility that little Theresa has stared at the Brexit abyss for too long and just wants out...
Click to expand...

In the dark parts of the (four dimensional) lizard part of my brain, I play with the idea that the Tories are sabotaging their own campaign as part of a much longer game.

Then I realise that ascribes them a level of competency and forethought they don't seem capable of.

PJV3 said:
You can get away with being boring and dull if you look like a safe pair of hands, the Clement Attlee school of leadership.
Click to expand...

That's better.
 
Crab said:
Latest #KantarPublicUK #GE2017 #polling:
#Conservative 43% (+1)
#Labour 33% (-1)
#LibDems 11% (+2)
#UKIP 4% (nc)

http://bit.ly/2rklOti
Click to expand...


I found this really interesting:

The Labour party remains the most active on Facebook (with 56 posts in the last week) ahead of the Lib Dems (20 posts) and the Conservatives (19 posts). However, Facebook users are becoming more engaged with the content posted by the Conservative party; over the last week their posts have been shared 69,984 times – up from 17,542 the previous week – although this still lags behind Labour (97,841). On Twitter @Conservatives and @UKLabour have shown a similar level of activity (90 and 86 original tweets respectively). @UKLabour continue to have the most engaged Twitter followers with 38,119 retweets over this period, substantially more than @Conservatives (19,677) and @LibDems (6,524). When it comes to party leaders, Jeremy Corbyn remains the most active on social media and his posts have also received the most retweets on Twitter and the most Likes, Comments and Shares on Facebook.
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I would have thought the Torys were doing better on Facebook, but I guess this doesn't include the 'Micro-pacs' (Individuals posting political bullshit).
 
I'm willing to bet the vast majority of the Conservatives additional funds have gone on their targeted Facebook and YouTube adds.

If that'd the case their returns are pretty terrible and I would have thought it would be higher than that.

I also wouldn't be surprised if there are Russian bots involved driving up engagement.
 
Ghost said:
I found this really interesting:

I would have thought the Torys were doing better on Facebook, but I guess this doesn't include the 'Micro-pacs' (Individuals posting political bullshit).
Click to expand...

Meh, I wouldn't really take online activity as predictive of anything. I remember when the Scottish Indyref was going to be a Yes because look at all the tweets.
 
Dirtyshubb said:
I'm willing to bet the vast majority of the Conservatives additional funds have gone on their targeted Facebook and YouTube adds.

If that'd the case their returns are pretty terrible and I would have thought it would be higher than that.

I also wouldn't be surprised if there are Russian bots involved driving up engagement.
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Had a snapchat ad with May's voice booming out. Horrible stuff.
 
WhateverItTakes said:
Y'know in retrospect I'm kinda surprised there wasn't more efforts by footballers and teams to Remain. Know they aren't the sharpest tools in the box and still as the mega rich they'll avoid the consequences mostly but you'd think with their reliance on free movement and a strong pound they would've actually tried.
Click to expand...

Probably better for them not to stick their neck out and risk pissing off a load of their fans. They prob don't wouldn't want to risk breaking FIFA's dumb "no politics in football" rule too
 
Huw_Dawson said:
Alright, so at the moment:

Dunbartonshire Easy
Edinburgh West
Twickenham

Those are the three near-certain gains.

Kingston and Surbiton
Cambridge
Richmond Park (nominally)

Those are a bit further out but still very good shots.

Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Eastbourne
Bath

Again, slightly further out.

Lastly, the seats I am less sure on:

Wells
Lewes
Birmingham Yardley
Cheltenham
St Albans
St Ives
Fife North West
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Ross, Lochaber and Skye
Vauxhall

We shall see - the question of this campaign is how good the local campaigns have been. The hope is that Farron did well enough on the Leader's Debate to shore up a bit of our 2015 vote, and people do not freak out about Corbyn possibly getting into Number 10.

But yeah, it is entirely possibly the LDs get to 18 seats this time, but it would be against the national trend. We could easily go down in seats, too.
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I'm interested in why you think Lewes is less sure. My parents live there and everyone was incredibly fucked off that it went tory (though largely self inflicted). I thought LD taking it back would be nailed on.
 
Lewes was a knife-edge seat between Leave and Remain, it's a toss-up as to whether the Lib Dems' stances on other issues can bring back all the Leave voters they lost and were critical to them holding Lewes.
 
Crab said:
Lewes was a knife-edge seat between Leave and Remain, it's a toss-up as to whether the Lib Dems' stances on other issues can bring back all the Leave voters they lost and were critical to them holding Lewes.
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Oh right, I wasn't sure what happened there in the referendum. I know last GE the MP was not flavour of the month because he had some dodgy skeletons rattling about with expenses and the coalition business which punished just about LD everywhere iirc, but I figured a new MP, time passing and having been tory for a while would be enough to bring it back. I'll have to keep an eye out, though it always seems to get called real real late.
 
So a few thoughts, and obviously, I'll note that contempt of court is now in play.

1. I don't think this alone changes much - but it's not good for the Tory narrative
2. I don't think anyone saw this coming... it seemed they might get a slap on the wrist, or held off until after the election
3. Oh it's funny. Tories will be able to bat it off with no comment for legal reasons.
4. C4News vindicated. Doing brilliant work continually.
5. HAHAHAHA
6. Question Time will be funny
7. Do you think this could be the Hillary FBI investigation moment? (No)
8. Let me enjoy this moment after they got away with the other breaking of the rules not being enough to bring charges but definitely wrong
 
Corbyn is growing on me. It's a major advantage for Labour in this environment that it's led by a good principled Leftist rather than another pro-EU Blairite drone.
 
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