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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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PJV3

PJV3

Member
Crab said:
I'm inclined to agree. 310 is like the sweetspot for "everything is shit". CON + DUP + UUP isn't enough, LAB + SNP + PC + GRN isn't enough, the LDs aren't doing anything, nothing is stable, we have our third election in three years.

Strong and stable, folks.
Click to expand...

Madness, the Tories starting article 50 and then calling an election is actually more stupid than Cameron calling a referendum for party reasons in the first place.

Tories and national interest in a nutshell.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
Faddy said:
In that scenario the Tories stay in power but they have no natural coalition partner but could probably squeeze by with DUP support (maybe?) but that is literally bringing things down to 1 or 2 votes every time.

Theresa May would be shanked on Friday Morning with that result, the whole thing would be blown to bits.

At this point it feels like YouGov are publishing these numbers for the LOLs
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At this stage, all polls are really for the lolz. Don't trust anything till 2~6am on Friday the 9th.

There's a lot of reactionary formulaic work going on here as yes, May is fucking tanking in the eyes of... every other party voter in the UK. Point being, do not underestimate the Tory voter's ability to get behind the party no matter what. Just like the Republican vote in America.

I'm pretty convinced that most of the lulz going on around Twitter/FB and social media, in general, is really coming from the Labour/SNP/Lib Dem/Greens camps. While I think the Tories might come in under projection now, I'm sadly still thinking they'll manage a majority.

I also need to spread this despair to try and cool the inevitable wounds/outrage in this topic come the 9th. Just expect the worst, then MAYBE be surprised
 
T

TimmmV

Member
Ghost said:
That's great and I'm in the same boat but it doesn't apply to a lot of people. I know a lot of people who see their whole world as their kids, wife, house & car. They see things like 'increase personal tax allowance' and know that they will get a direct benefit from voting Tory which they justify as "I'm just looking out for my family".
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Yeah.

I've got a mate who is usually anti tuition fees, but reacted to Corbyns policy negatively because "its only for new students, not us"

Sometimes people can have generally progressive views but still be pretty selfish.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
TimmmV said:
Yeah.

I've got a mate who is usually anti tuition fees, but reacted to Corbyns policy negatively because "its only for new students, not us"

Sometimes people can have generally progressive views but still be pretty selfish.
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But it's not only for new students? Corbyn wants debt relief for existing students, too.
 
Spuck-uk

Spuck-uk

Banned
gun_haver said:
no cos a lot of those young left wing voters will be pulled to the right as they begin to get established in life and have actual income to tax
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I've gotten more left wing and more willing to pay higher taxes as I've gotten older and much better paid.
 
Spuck-uk

Spuck-uk

Banned
RetroDLC said:
The Lib Dems should be fine pairing up with Labour if they get weed and the Brexit deal ref through.
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If the lib dems break another election pledge by going into coalition after campaigning that they won't, they might as well Get in The Rocket as far as future electability.
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
Faddy said:
There is a huge contradiction within the Unionist parties. Politically they cannot campaign on a hard border. That would throw the whole island into chaos as work, travel and trade barriers destroy the economy. But they also cannot support customs arrangements between NI and GB.

And with the Tories pledging to pull us out the EU Customs Union, there is a huge political problem that seems without a solution... unless NI gets a bespoke Brexit deal but then Scotland would want a bespoke deal as well.
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Faddy said:
If you thought the Scottish Referendum was divisive, an Irish one still has the possibility of terrorism engulfing the whole process.
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I shudder. It would be a complete mess. In fact Brexit is a complete mess for the border. Over three hundred crossings to be policed. No way the handful of customs guys and Garda are going to bother. Everyone will just turn a blind eye.

And there is a whole pile of people just waiting for the pot to boil over again. It was only ever on simmer.
 
T

TimmmV

Member
Crab said:
But it's not only for new students? Corbyn wants debt relief for existing students, too.
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Our understanding was that Corbyn ultimately wants that, but it isn't in this manifesto

I tried to reason to him that getting them abolished in the first place would be a good way to lead to ours getting written off, but he wasn't having it

He's still voting Labour at least, just sometimes his logic is annoyingly selfish. IDK what/whether there is a British equivalent, but were he American it would probably be fair to group him with the Bernie Bros
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
We normally get the E3 hype train. This topic needs the UK General Election rocket for everyone that needs to take a Virgin Galactic one-way trip to space.
 
M

Morat

Banned
Crab said:
Greens was 1 (nc); didn't bother stating them because they're not different.

Ashcroft's model has also been updated.

CON: 355 (+25)
LAB: 224 (-8)
LD: 5 (-3)
SNP: 46 (-10)
PC: 1 (-2)
Greens: 0 (-1)
UKIP: 0 (-1)

His model is the most conservative (and Conservative!) of the major forecasters.
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Huh. Things are getting interesting.
 
T

Tregard

Soothsayer
Faddy said:
There is a huge contradiction within the Unionist parties. Politically they cannot campaign on a hard border. That would throw the whole island into chaos as work, travel and trade barriers destroy the economy. But they also cannot support customs arrangements between NI and GB.

And with the Tories pledging to pull us out the EU Customs Union, there is a huge political problem that seems without a solution... unless NI gets a bespoke Brexit deal but then Scotland would want a bespoke deal as well.
Click to expand...

We can't even get our own government up and running at Stormont, and nobody in Parliament cares enough about NI for this to happen.
 
S

SlipperyFishes

Banned
Spuck-uk said:
The Unionists are understandably not a fan of leaving the Union ;)
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Those fuckers block everything that's progressivenin society. They've most recently reinforced how anti gay marriage they are by declaring "Peter will never marry Paul". Utter cunts.

If England can cope with men and women being happy married to the same sex then they should too or fucking rip the union from them.
 
D

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
Jacob Rees-Mogg is like a cartoon parody of a Tory that came to life and just started being an MP but nobody knows how to stop him.
 
E

Empty

Member
it's bad but extremely funny if we waste nearly the entire first year of article 50 on one election that leads to a hung parliament and a few months of complete confusion then another election at the end of the year.

all because strong and stable theresa may called an election on entirely false pretenses when she already had a majority and then turned in the worst campaign ever
 
V

Vagabundo

Member
Empty said:
it's bad but extremely funny if we waste nearly the entire first year of article 50 on one election that leads to a hung parliament and a few months of complete confusion then another election at the end of the year.

all because strong and stable theresa may called an election on entirely false pretenses when she already had a majority and then turned in the worst campaign ever
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Brexit ain't happening in two years.
 
T

Tregard

Soothsayer
SlipperyFishes said:
Those fuckers block everything that's progressivenin society. They've most recently reinforced how anti gay marriage they are by declaring "Peter will never marry Paul". Utter cunts.

If England can cope with men and women being happy married to the same sex then they should too or fucking rip the union from them.
Click to expand...

It's become a sad state of affair where Unionism isn't the belief that NI should be part of the UK, rather it's hardcore Christianity alongside pro-life beliefs. The DUP's policies are ancient, broken and caustic, but they survive (even with the most inept and clumsy first minister) due to the fear they strike in the populous that to leave them is to hand over Northern Ireland to the Republicans.
 
Spuck-uk

Spuck-uk

Banned
SlipperyFishes said:
Those fuckers block everything that's progressivenin society. They've most recently reinforced how anti gay marriage they are by declaring "Peter will never marry Paul". Utter cunts.

If England can cope with men and women being happy married to the same sex then they should too or fucking rip the union from them.
Click to expand...

When you;re at the point you're more regressive than the republic you should really be taking a good hard look at yourselves.
 
D

Doctor_Thomas

Member
I'm from Northern Ireland. Belfast North has been DUP since 2001. I'm, very much, a unionist. I'm probably pro-independent Northern Ireland, if anything, but that's a pipe dream. Never voted DUP, SF, SDLP etc. Always socialist parties (Worker's Party and PBP lost my vote over their Brexit stance).

I'm tempted to hand in my Green vote to Sinn Fein because a party that doesn't sit is better than the DUP licking Tory arse.
 
S

Spaghetti

Member
Crab said:
Greens was 1 (nc); didn't bother stating them because they're not different.

Ashcroft's model has also been updated.

CON: 355 (+25)
LAB: 224 (-8)
LD: 5 (-3)
SNP: 46 (-10)
PC: 1 (-2)
Greens: 0 (-1)
UKIP: 0 (-1)

His model is the most conservative (and Conservative!) of the major forecasters.
Click to expand...
Remember when the Tories were predicted to pick up 100+ seats? lol

D4Danger said:
Jacob Rees-Mogg is like a cartoon parody of a Tory that came to life and just started being an MP but nobody knows how to stop him.
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I am fucking astounded Rees-Mogg somehow looks older than my father, who is 10+ years his senior.
 
C

Cindres

Vied for a tag related to cocks, so here it is.
D4Danger said:
Jacob Rees-Mogg is like a cartoon parody of a Tory that came to life and just started being an MP but nobody knows how to stop him.
Click to expand...

God I despise that man, I can't even put into words how much I bloody hate him or even why I just hate him with every fibre of my being.
 
C

Chinner

Banned
Psychotext said:
Even if they lose one seat I'll be happy.

Any gains in seats will be spun as a victory, no matter how ridiculous that actually is.
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"let me be clear that this gain of 1 seat gives the Conservatives a massive majority that gives us the mandate of the people and allows the Conservatives to be strong and stabile when I bring a Brexit that truly means Brexit as the EU will know that I am a bloody difficult women"

Etc.
 
P

Pandy

Member
Audioboxer said:
I wasn't really all that familiar with him till now, but jeez, that voting record.
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Cindres said:
God I despise that man, I can't even put into words how much I bloody hate him or even why I just hate him with every fibre of my being.
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To contribute to the Rees-Mogg dogpile, here's a little snippet of the man himself explaining how great it is that we have foodbanks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ0R2ZuZI_U

(Snippet courtesy of Wings Over Scotland, for those of you that would rather not give Rev Stu a click.)
 
S

Spaghetti

Member
Audioboxer said:
I wasn't really all that familiar with him till now, but jeez, that voting record.
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It's not just that, he's got some dodgy connections with fringe groups. Traditional Britain or something like that, that literally advocate for Enoch Powell's "repatriation" policies.
 
T

Tregard

Soothsayer
Doctor_Thomas said:
I'm from Northern Ireland. Belfast North has been DUP since 2001. I'm, very much, a unionist. I'm probably pro-independent Northern Ireland, if anything, but that's a pipe dream. Never voted DUP, SF, SDLP etc. Always socialist parties (Worker's Party and PBP lost my vote over their Brexit stance).

I'm tempted to hand in my Green vote to Sinn Fein because a party that doesn't sit is better than the DUP licking Tory arse.
Click to expand...

Currently in Strangford, DUP Stronghold. Simon Hamilton waltzes up to my door a few days ago handing me a leaflet asking me to vote for Jim Shannon, a man no one is capable of liking.

Checked his 2015 stats

U3CyN6w.png


The man claims over £200'000 in expenses, more than ANY other MP, and runs entirely unopposed.

Shambles.
 
H

Hazzuh

Member
Some thoughts from Tory and Labour sources involved in the campaign, seems to confirm that the swing in polling is borne out by what is happening on the ground:
LONDON — The Conservative Party Campaign believes the election results in up to 30 or 40 seats are now in doubt, as unexpectedly high numbers of voters switch back and forth between backing the Tories and Labour.

One senior Conservative campaign source told Business Insider that there are now a far higher number of unpredictable seats than they had expected to be dealing with at this late stage. There were dozens of seats "switching between us and them in key battlegrounds," a senior strategist for the Conservatives told Business Insider.

In a normal election, about 10% of voters are likely to change their vote at this stage before the election, the source says. But this time around the percentage of voters potentially switching their loyalty between Labour and Conservative is around 20%, according to intelligence being examined inside Tory party HQ. That means that 30 to 40 seats where the result would normally be safe are now in doubt.

Elector volatility is so high this year that one in five voters is "extremely likely to change" their vote, the source says. This number has surprised Tory strategists.

It implies that recent opinion polls showing a narrowing gap between the Conservatives and Labour are being taken seriously inside CCHQ. Despite some senior campaign figures dismissing polls showing a narrow Tory lead, the campaign appears to be treating the trend as real, and not merely a pre-election blip.

Labour has gained on the Tories in the polls recently. One YouGov poll put the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 39%, a result that could lead to a hung parliament in June. While the media have been excited by the sudden and surprising upswing for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour, Tory campaign veterans have been more sanguine. They believe it is normal, between elections when there is nothing at stake, for polls to show wide gaps between the parties. And it is equally normal, when people face the real possibility of actually voting, for voters to take it more seriously — and to slip back into old habits. They say the collapse of Labour in the polls over the last year, and the party's sudden resurgence, should not be a surprise.

Labour sources have also poured cold water on the narrowing polls. One party source told Business Insider that while they were now doing better in some parts of the country, they were hearing "very bad reports" from other regions.

One Labour source campaigning in a top target marginal seat for the Conservatives told BI that whereas at the start of the campaign they had all but given up hope of retaining the seat for Labour, they now believed the result was too close to call.

"It's definitely feeling more like 2010 than 2015 here," the source said, although they added that Labour may see some surprising losses in their former northern heartlands.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we held onto some southern marginal seats against the Tories but lost some other safe seats with 6,000 vote majorities elsewhere," they said.
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Nothing too surprising but I thought it was interesting..

http://uk.businessinsider.com/tory-hq-fear-30-40-seats-unexpectedly-high-voter-volatility-2017-6
 
T

TimmmV

Member
Pandy said:
To contribute to the Rees-Mogg dogpile, here's a little snippet of the man himself explaining how great it is that we have foodbanks: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qQ0R2ZuZI_U

(Snippet courtesy of Wings Over Scotland, for those of you that would rather not give Rev Stu a click.)
Click to expand...

I didn't realise it was possible to hate him more, but that vid just made it possible. Justifying it as the state not being able to manage to provide everything is bullshit too, given how people didn't need food banks anywhere near as much 10 years ago

Fuck those people clapping at "its christian" too
 
M

Maledict

Member
Chinner said:
"let me be clear that this gain of 1 seat gives the Conservatives a massive majority that gives us the mandate of the people and allows the Conservatives to be strong and stabile when I bring a Brexit that truly means Brexit as the EU will know that I am a bloody difficult women"

Etc.
Click to expand...

If she gets less than a 50 seat majority there's no way she survives past Brexit, if that. The PCP hate her already, if she fucks this up with that manifesto and her complete inability to appear human they will be out for blood.
 
D

DarthMasta

Member
Vagabundo said:
Brexit ain't happening in two years.
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Yes it is. As things stand at the moment, Brexit is very much happening in two years. A bit less even. For that not to happen you'll need an unanimous vote, and the way things are going I'm not sure it should be considered a fait accompli that you'll get that.
 
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