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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Ashes

Banned
This is virtually impossible since so much of Labour's support is in central belt seats (esp. Glasgow) where the SNP has large majorities. Labour are favourites to hold Edinburgh South, their lone seat, but much beyond that would be very unexpected.

Meanwhile there are a lot of seats that the bookies have down as SNP/Tory marginals: East Renfrewshire, Aberdeen South, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, Moray, Perth & North Perthshire, Edinburgh South West, Edinburgh North & Leith, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, East Lothian (though this is a 3-way with Labour in the mix too). Even in Angus the Tories are priced at 2/1, and in Banff & Buchan they are 5/2. Compare Labour in Glasgow South (my seat): 16/1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk and Dumfries & Galloway are regarded as safe seats for the Tories so I didn't list them.

Don't the Tories have one seat too? With the up surge in Labour, doesn't the trend suggest a Labour gain and SNP loss?
 

Pandy

Member
This is virtually impossible since so much of Labour's support is in central belt seats (esp. Glasgow) where the SNP has large majorities. Labour are favourites to hold Edinburgh South, their lone seat, but much beyond that would be very unexpected.

Meanwhile there are a lot of seats that the bookies have down as SNP/Tory marginals: East Renfrewshire, Aberdeen South, West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine, Moray, Perth & North Perthshire, Edinburgh South West, Edinburgh North & Leith, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, East Lothian (though this is a 3-way with Labour in the mix too). Even in Angus the Tories are priced at 2/1, and in Banff & Buchan they are 5/2. Compare Labour in Glasgow South (my seat): 16/1. Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk and Dumfries & Galloway are regarded as safe seats for the Tories so I didn't list them.

I know, but it would still be really nice to see the Tories slipping back to third place. Would require Tories to slip further down the polls so that the SNP can hold them to only a couple of seats in the SNP/Tory marginals, while Labour continue climbing this week and take a few surprise victories from the SNP elsewhere. Not likely, but one can hope.

If it happened it might give Scottish Labour the confidence to stop aping the Scottish Tories and provide a positive Unionist voice to help the independence debate move forward in a less toxic atmosphere. I'm in favour of independence, but I'm not so closed minded to think their aren't good arguments on the other side. All we're getting at the moment though is the warmed over leftovers of Project Fear telling us we shouldn't have another referendum in case they lose it, instead of a positive case for the UK.
 
Don't the Tories have one seat too? With the up surge in Labour, doesn't the trend suggest a Labour gain and SNP loss?

The Tories hold Dumfriesshire (they held it by under 1000 votes in 2015). My point is that the voting trends will not reflect the seats changing hands: Labour and the Tories are both going to do better than 2015 (Lab polled 24% then, the Tories 15%, so the swing to the Tories will almost certainly be much greater, whether or not they beat Labour in the popular vote). But much of the Labour vote will be "wasted" on seats they'll never come near winning in the central belt, where the SNP has cemented itself most strongly. In the richer and more rural parts of Scotland, even though they're the ancestral home of the SNP, the Tories will likely provide a serious challenge and take at least a couple of seats. Representation tends to matter more than raw votes, in the long run, for all kinds of reasons.

I think it is difficult for posters from outside Scotland to appreciate just how much the independence debate has dominated our politics since the 2011 Holyrood election. It's not that it's everything, it's the only thing. The SNP took full advantage of it first, as you'd expect, but under Ruth Davidson the Tories have learned how to play in the new landscape, and are starting, in Scotland, to put the post-Thatcher legacy behind them by wrapping themselves in the Union Jack. Labour have no idea what to do, and, worse, no one capable of doing it, even if they did.
 
It's about community policing, that's where they get intelligence so don't say it wouldn't have prevented anything, the fact is we are seeing the fruits of an underfunded police force.

Our government need to stop trying to protect its people on the cheap.
I'm not allowed to say it wouldn't have prevented this but you are allowed to say that it would? Ok I'll be quiet then and let you have a one sided debate with yourself.
 
Who supports terrorism again? Seems a lot like the Tories are indirectly selling them weapons, then shutting down any debate on it to me.

But no, Corbyn, spoke with the IRA 35 fucking years ago. Clearly that is a more pressing matter.
That's the biggest fucking thing that needs to be said.

'YOU ACCUSE CORBYN OF TALKING TO TERRORISTS 30 YEARS AGO BUT YOU SELL WEAPONS TO TERRORISTS RIGHT NOW!!'
 

Dougald

Member
I'm not allowed to say it wouldn't have prevented this but you are allowed to say that it would? Ok I'll be quiet then and let you have a one sided debate with yourself.

OverBlood gave actual reasons for his point of view rather than a throwaway statement. It's only a "one sided debate" if you don't bother to actually debate, mate
 

Hazzuh

Member
Every ridiculous thing Trump tweets out makes May's continued support for him more and more embarrassing. Is she really going to tolerate him smearing the mayor of London? Is he really going to be invited for a state visit in a few months?
 
OverBlood gave actual reasons for his point of view rather than a throwaway statement. It's only a "one sided debate" if you don't bother to actually debate, mate
The blanket statement was from OverBlood himself who said that more police officers would have prevented last night's atrocity. Now that's a blanket statement. And don't use 'mate'.
No I'd just rather take the opinion of police officers who work in the communities than you.
You're missing my point. More community police officers may reduce the threat but does not prevent/eradicate the threat, obviously.
 

Dougald

Member
The blanket statement was from OverBlood himself who said that more police officers would have prevented last night's atrocity. Now that's a blanket statement.

You categorically stated something without expanding on it, and when someone countered you with a reason you claimed that meant you weren't allowed to have an opinion and they were having a "one sided debate". Either give a cohesive argument or don't bother.
 
That Rudd video was posted: https://youtu.be/TEcMW6RmC_w
I honestly find Rudd even more vile than May. She's everything I hate about the Tories in one complete package.
You categorically stated something without expanding on it, and when someone countered you with a reason you claimed that meant you weren't allowed to have an opinion and they were having a "one sided debate". Either give a cohesive argument or don't bother.
He said "don't say" basically telling me to be quiet, he reminded me of Amber Rudd and the Tory dictatorship.
 
The blanket statement was from OverBlood himself who said that more police officers would have prevented last night's atrocity. Now that's a blanket statement. And don't use 'mate'.

You're missing my point. More community police officers may reduce the threat but does not prevent/eradicate the threat, obviously.

It wasn't a blanket statement about fuck all. So don't try to misrepresent what I said it was a specific point, to someone who you replied to about a community officer warning (Theresa May) against this exact thing. Since then many other police officers and intelligence services have said the same thing.

Saying 'This can't be prevented' which is what you initially said is absolutely redundant when people in the field are saying it can be. Your follow up point is more naunced because you admit it can be reduced which I agree with.

Proper funding can prevent this kind of shit, I'll reiterate that the government shouldn't be trying to protect us on the cheap.
 

Dougald

Member
He said "don't say" basically telling me to be quiet, he reminded me of Amber Rudd and the Tory dictatorship.

Then engage in conversation, don't shout about how unfair it is when someone has a differing opinion and used a figure of speech that sounds a little bit mean. Police cuts, especially now, are something that is worth debating
 

Beefy

Member
Has this been posted:


Tories U-turn on plan to build more socially rented council housing

The Conservatives have U-turned on a flagship pledge to build “a new generation” of social housing announced in their manifesto just weeks ago.

Theresa May personally promised her policy would deliver “a constant supply of new homes for social rent”, but her housing minister has now admitted planned homes would in fact be of a significantly less affordable type.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...general-election-2017-manifesto-a7769866.html
 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/15/bae.armstrade

Saudi Arabia's rulers threatened to make it easier for terrorists to attack London unless corruption investigations into their arms deals were halted, according to court documents revealed yesterday.

Previously secret files describe how investigators were told they faced "another 7/7" and the loss of "British lives on British streets" if they pressed on with their inquiries and the Saudis carried out their threat to cut off intelligence.


We need to get the fuck away from these lunatics.
 
Well then, the audio could be better and the rant at the end about censorship. while understandable, was unnecessary, but that's a pretty damning video right there. She seems to instruct the moderator to shut him down as soon as he mentions Saudi Arabia. It's much more clean cunt than I thought it would be.

I have to assume she didn't realise or forgot the debate was being filmed.
 
Well then, the audio could be better and the rant at the end about censorship. while understandable, was unnecessary, but that's a pretty damning video right there. She seems to instruct the moderator to shut him down as soon as he mentions Saudi Arabia. It's much more clean cunt than I thought it would be.

I have to assume she didn't realise or forgot the debate was being filmed.

I used to follow that guy on twitter for years and he's had a really hard time because he's a whistleblower for HSBC. I can't really remember the details but it's led him to having mental health issues. He's calmer than I would've been.
 

jelly

Member
I'm not entirely convinced on the Saudi point, I know they spread evil and have horrible values. Selling arms to them is bad, selling anything to them is bad right? I know America and the UK deal with them, do other other countries avoid them because they spread terrorism?
 
I used to follow that guy on twitter for years and he's had a really hard time because he's a whistleblower for HSBC. I can't really remember the details but it's led him to having mental health issues. He's calmer than I would've been.

Yeah, I could hear the anger and frustration in his voice and if he's been at it for years I can totally understand why he'd rant at the end.
 

Theonik

Member
We can't with Brexit.

Actually, that's not entirely accurate, we could decide not to deal with them any more, but we'd suffer for it.
We'd suffer for it either way. If the UK is to re-align itself in the world stage we had best be careful who we align ourselves with or we risk bearing the consequences of it for decades to come.
 
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