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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
No matter how bad May and cronies get, thought of Diane Abbot as Home Secretary sends chills down my spine.
 

jelly

Member
Is Abbot that bad in offfice or just terrible in interviews?

I don't know anything about her ideas or work in government beyond her being on some politics show and this election.
 
What's happening tonight? Saw that labour said they weren't campaigning until tonight...?
After watching Emily Thornberry on the last leg I think they are going to tear May a new one on her failure to protect the country. I'm also secretly hoping they mention the weapon sales to Saudi Arabia.

She was asked if the terror attack would change their campaign and she was very coy but said they listen to the public on what issues to cover and that would determine what they say tonight.

You could tell she was upset but angry so I think they are going all out to change the narrative to one of theresa and the Tories can't keep us safe (and the weapons sales to Saudi Arabia).

*edit - it's also the perfect thing to bring up because it's clear the Tories have no way to defend what they have done. First Amber rudd gives the shortest debate answer I have seen by saying 'it's good for industry' and then she shuts down the man talking about it and then they delay the report into the causes of terrorism. This is their weak spot and they fucking know it.

We need to throw everything at the idea they have help arm and fund terrorists and they could be fucker.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
There's no way Abbott would ever remain Home Secretary. In the immensely unlikely event Corbyn was in a position to form government, the PLP would crawl back to kiss the ring faster than you can say 'principled opposition', and he'd reshuffle his cabinet to bring back in real talent. Even Corbyn's office is deeply frustrated by Abbott at this point.
 
Yup, I don't think it's a coincidence that the zenith of the Scottish independence movement came at a time of economic hardship following the credit crunch. If the UK economy falters and there's an obvious fix by entering Europe, the SNP will have a powerful card to play.

However leaving the UK would probably cause more economic harm to scotland than whatever good joining the EU would bring
 

PJV3

Member
There's no way Abbott would ever remain Home Secretary. In the immensely unlikely event Corbyn was in a position to form government, the PLP would crawl back to kiss the ring faster than you can say 'principled opposition', and he'd reshuffle his cabinet to bring back in real talent. Even Corbyn's office is deeply frustrated by Abbott at this point.


I don't think she would even want a high pressure position like that, she seems distant recently.
 
I'm liable to agree with Crab. But I do think that a Labour government would be quite unstable, at least for periods during its stint in office - there's definitely two ideologies at loggerheads in the party.

If, for example, there was a call to arms - for example, the US requested the UK's aid in intervention in a Middle Eastern country, that could cause a nasty rift, for example.

If Labour wasn't badly split, the front bench would represent the real talent in the party AND the new ideological direction of said party. There's a lot of talent on the back benches right now and that is a shame.
 

Number45

Member
Man, Andrew Neill went for Farron in a way he wouldn't have fucking dared go for May. Even Nuttall didn't get that level of contempt.

The BBC couldn't even be arsed to find a picture of him for the programme page on iPlayer.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I don't think she would even want a high pressure position like that, she seems distant recently.

She has an alcohol problem and is reaching the Kennedy stage where it is clearly affecting her performance. I think her resignation would be the best for everyone, including herself. It's a serious situation and the last thing she needs is an election campaign on top of it.
 

gun_haver

Member
I'm liable to agree with Crab. But I do think that a Labour government would be quite unstable, at least for periods during its stint in office - there's definitely two ideologies at loggerheads in the party.

If, for example, there was a call to arms - for example, the US requested the UK's aid in intervention in a Middle Eastern country, that could cause a nasty rift, for example.

If Labour wasn't badly split, the front bench would represent the real talent in the party AND the new ideological direction of said party. There's a lot of talent on the back benches right now and that is a shame.

Wouldn't the party be more likely to come together in the event of an election win? A lot of the talk about why Corbyn was a bad leader was that he was unelectable - this campaign has proven already that this isn't the case and a few big names like Alistair Campbell and Alan Johnson have released statements saying as much and supporting him. I'm sure there are many heretofore quiet opportunists who would do a similar thing and go where the momentum is.
 

Madouu

Member
Wouldn't the party be more likely to come together in the event of an election win? A lot of the talk about why Corbyn was a bad leader was that he was unelectable - this campaign has proven already that this isn't the case and a few big names like Alistair Campbell and Alan Johnson have released statements saying as much and supporting him. I'm sure there are many heretofore quiet opportunists who would do a similar thing and go where the momentum is.

It's a guarantee, that's how it works everywhere.
 

jelly

Member
I think Labour MPs would get behind Corbyn in a win but whether he chooses those Blairites is another matter but at least in interviews he seems quite open to talking with everyone so maybe working is just the same, best person for the job.
 
Yeah the Andrew Neil interview with Farron is BS - I'm not sure who is more at fault, but Neil has had it in for LDs for years and years.

@Gun_haver, I wouldn't think it was a done deal either way, but I think there'd be a lot of internal arguing inside a Labour cabinet lead by Corbyn - probably more arguing than inside a Tory one.

Corbyn's not been that good at dealing with internal party divisions. I'd hope the party would band together, and I think there's enough common sense people on the right of the party who would be a great fit in cabinet (Hillary Benn, for example).
 

PJV3

Member
She has an alcohol problem and is reaching the Kennedy stage where it is clearly affecting her performance. I think her resignation would be the best for everyone, including herself. It's a serious situation and the last thing she needs is an election campaign on top of it.

Yeah, we have talked about that before, I think she's doing the job more as a favour to Jeremy because he's been isolated than any desire for the role.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
As an interesting aside, if you except Kantar's latest poll, which appears to be an outlier, every single major pollster's unweighted sample is within the margin of error of CON 41 LAB 39. All of the difference between pollsters isn't due to differences in sampling, but due to different assumptions about turnout and the way undecided voters will break. So, at the very least, the underlying data is consistent, it's just what it exactly it means is uncertain.
 

nekkid

It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
I still can't believe we're in a situation where Labour is actually in contention for a win. Imagine that 8 weeks ago...
 
In fairness if I was in Abbot's shoes I'd be extremely proud to be where she is. Especially considering her generation and her background.

And yeah Crab that's really true - I think this election will be a really good test of the various new methodologies. This hopefully means better polls going ahead.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I still can't believe we're in a situation where Labour is actually in contention for a win. Imagine that 8 weeks ago...

They're not, though. Only a single forecaster (YouGov) has a Labour plurality (not majority!) within even the 95% confidence level, and even then it is a very unlikely event. Again, people are getting too hyped. The most likely outcome by far is narrow Con gains, then narrow Con losses, then Con minority, then hung parliament leading to re-election.
 
No matter how bad May and cronies get, thought of Diane Abbot as Home Secretary sends chills down my spine.

She doesn't deserve 1% of the hate she gets. There are far far far worse politicians out there, the abuse she gets online is vile.

I've heard nothing but great things about her, and she makes a mistake with figures and people treat her like an idiot. The Tory manifesto thought you could feed children on 7p and no one gives a toss.

Not saying you can't hate who you like by the way. I just shouldn't read her tweet replies.
 
I think the thread title should be changed to The Purple Wedding, partly because I think Theresa May is going to be offed, but also the collapse of UKIP.
 

Theonik

Member
Yup, I don't think it's a coincidence that the zenith of the Scottish independence movement came at a time of economic hardship following the credit crunch. If the UK economy falters and there's an obvious fix by entering Europe, the SNP will have a powerful card to play.
I think a May majority also works well for the SNP if independence is their goal even though it's bad for Scotland. There is a lot of resentment up north about not fitting in culturally with the rest of the United Kingdom, and if the Conservative keep up this crazy path that will only become worse.

However leaving the UK would probably cause more economic harm to scotland than whatever good joining the EU would bring
Voters are not rational. Were they rational demagogues wouldn't be effective.

If a hung parliament leads to another election, does that bode well for Jezza and Labour?
It depends. A second election will likely cause a re-alignment. There wasn't much time in this campaign for it to come to bear. If May fails to get a majority, her credibility will shatter while Corbyn's credibility at that point will be quite solid and people who doubted his ability might be put at ease.
 
Is this actually getting much attention in the media though?
It don't know but probably not.

That's why I think Labour need to come out tonight and bring all the security issues up. Reference these police officers specifically, mention may being home sec for 6 years, mention selling weapons to Saudi Arabia and that evidence shows they use those weapons on innocents and help terrorists.

Link it all into a clear picture of failure on her part so the people can get a real understanding of her history.

Go heavy on all this and the papers will be forced to cover it. They might even try to attack him which will probably help him the way things are going.

Just do something big and relevant to help shake things in the last stretch.
 
If a hung parliament leads to another election, does that bode well for Jezza and Labour?

It gives the tories the chance to make a manifesto that is not complete shit but it depends what happens in the interim.

If it's May vs Corbyn again and he's doing more debates and keeps going and she keeps ducking and diving then it's hard to see how things will improve for them in another election unless their manifesto is actually not top 5% complete garbage again.

That being said people keep voting for the Tories for a reason so who knows, I don't think it's a bad thing for Corbs at least if he can keep the energy going
 

Beefy

Member
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gun_haver

Member
The thing that bothers me the most about all of this is how the entire context of the campaign is shifted towards how fucking hard the candidates are going to be on terrorism. The strategy for maintaining safety is something most of the public honestly isn't qualified to have a proper opinion on, but it is easily turned into a political grenade and completely warps a campaign which is about more substantive things like income inequality.

It's ugly as fuck and it dismays me to see basically the entire world react the way it does to these sorts of things. It doesn't help. May saying enough is enough doesn't help, whether you call it Islamic terrorism or not doesn't help. One thing that might help is having more police to deal with the reports that come in, but that's a fairly simple proposition and doesn't warrant the unbearable bombast about how this is a FIGHT FOR DEMOCRACY ITSELF.

I would hope that leaders would help set a tone that thwarts the potential for prejudicial insanity in the public, and that potential is clearly fucking rife, not to clear a road vote it because that road also happens to lead to the polling booth.
 
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