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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
- Start date
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Psychotext
Member
Cheers.
Huw_Dawson
Member
After the last suspension, everyone realised it was a really stupid idea to cease local campaigning. Too many instances of activists ignoring the memos, too many leaflets needing to be delivered etc.
Also this is a smaller attack than Manchester and much closer to the GE.
Freewheelin'
Member
Extraordinary Freudian slip
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
I was thinking the same.
JonathanEx
Member
Tonight's Sturgen/Farron Leaders Question Time has been bumped.
SamCoatesTimes
After SW1 terror attacks Amber Rudd said: " I don't think it would be right now to have some knee-jerk reaction and introduce something new"
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/871328651522039808
After SW1 terror attacks Amber Rudd said: " I don't think it would be right now to have some knee-jerk reaction and introduce something new"
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/871328651522039808
SlipperyFishes
Banned
I got an email to say my message forwarding that video had been sent to the channel 4 news desk
Huw_Dawson
Member
There's potential advantage for Farron's if it was the night before the election or something and went really well, but this is ultimately an extremely minor thing.
Gonna assume this is fake considering nobody in the replies can find the source and searching on goggle sends you to a reddit post which also can't find a source.
Doesn't seem to be real
Huw_Dawson
Member
New Britain Elect Nowcast out.
I'll be really pleased with BE if they turn out to be the closest.
http://britainelects.com/nowcast/
I've been saying the LDs have been looking at 12+ for a while now and they're pretty much matching my prediction.
I'll be really pleased with BE if they turn out to be the closest.
http://britainelects.com/nowcast/
I've been saying the LDs have been looking at 12+ for a while now and they're pretty much matching my prediction.
Yeah let's hope Britain Elects is right with a decent Tory majority so the Lib Dems can have a couple of extra seats.
Or we could hope for the YouGov projections and get the Tories out.
I am one of those. I was resolute at the beginning of the HE campaign that l wouldn't vote Labour, but every time l seehear him, it all makes sense.
And he absolutely bossed QT on Friday. May was actually shaking. It was so bad Dimbleby was jumping in to hold her hand. It was really awkward to watch.
In retrospect that nuclear stuff was a non-seqitur. Not even in the height of the cold war did NATO have a first strike policy it was always 'flexible response'.
As a related question None of the security council have first use do they?
RPGCrazied
Member
Please no May. Hows it looking for her?
Huw_Dawson
Member
No, I am saying that the BE projection looks the most correct. Yougov's one would be nice, but I don't think it is as realistic.
Scottish independence voting intention:
Yes: 42% (-1)
No: 50% (+2)
(via Survation / 31 May - 02 Jun)
Chgs. w/ Apr
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871376495058591745
Yes: 42% (-1)
No: 50% (+2)
(via Survation / 31 May - 02 Jun)
Chgs. w/ Apr
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/871376495058591745
Likely to have an increased majority of between 30 and 100+ seats.
How are you coming to the conclusion that Britiain Elects is more accurate than YouGov? Do you have something to tell us about why one methodology is more accurate than the other?
Or are you biased towards the company that gives the Lib Dems slightly more seats?
RPGCrazied
Member
Don't know UK politics, but does that mean she will have decision making powers?
Widdle Puppy
Banned
This seems like the best thread to ask this question.
How likely is it to see Scotland separate from the UK?
I want to visit Scotland and would like to preferably when they are their own country that is part of the EUROPEAN UNION.
How likely is it to see Scotland separate from the UK?
I want to visit Scotland and would like to preferably when they are their own country that is part of the EUROPEAN UNION.
Yes, bear in mind she had them prior to the GE. She probably called the GE because she could foresee some rebellions on the back benches during the Brexit negotiations.
Huw_Dawson
Member
No, I'm biased towards what looks right from my own personal analysis for the past six weeks, from my analysis of the betting markets, what I am hearing internally and repeated analysis of the polls that show red flags - pun intended - when analysing the polls like Yougov's.
BE's prediction is based on all polls, Yougov's is based on only theirs - I prefer a prediction that takes in multiple data sources.
When I see "LD 12" and everything else I've looked at says "LDs on 12, entirely depending on targeting otherwise for further gains" and everything I've seen says "the Tories are not getting a landslide but are going to beat Labour".
I'd actually PREFER the Yougov result. I personally think the BE result is more likely!
JonathanEx
Member
Tomorrow 9pm now. Actually a more high profile slot for it I'd say. Not that I think it'll make much of a difference, but hey, Huw's needed some good news.
Also, Nick Robinson is substitute Dimbleby!
Huw_Dawson
Member
I like Robinson a lot. Really good for Sturgeon too - she needs to rally the troops. She seriously needs to make the point that the Westminster election is NOT about independence, but instead about Brexit and Scotland's voice at Westminster.
Increasing less likely I think, despite brexit. Which is a good thing in my opinion
Widdle Puppy
Banned
Who decides if Scotland leaves or not? If Scotland districts all vote and have a majority to leave are they able to?
Huw_Dawson
Member
I think the independence movement has peaked and will take a little time to get going again.
Independence can be avoided if the UK goes through a reforming period. Change the voting laws, change how Westminster works, federalise and increase powers to the regions etc.
Otherwise it's the pizza analogy. Scotland and England are two pieces of a cheese pizza slowly being pulled away from each other, with ever-thinning ties that will eventually break.
I think Scotland's time as part of the UK is finite. I think that either reform or disintegration will occur.
I'll say this again btw - if I had the ability to, I'd happily trade a few LD seats in this GE for a Tory minority government and another election later this year. But that's a weird tradeoff, as the more seats the LDs win, the more likely a hung parliament is!
Independence can be avoided if the UK goes through a reforming period. Change the voting laws, change how Westminster works, federalise and increase powers to the regions etc.
Otherwise it's the pizza analogy. Scotland and England are two pieces of a cheese pizza slowly being pulled away from each other, with ever-thinning ties that will eventually break.
I think Scotland's time as part of the UK is finite. I think that either reform or disintegration will occur.
I'll say this again btw - if I had the ability to, I'd happily trade a few LD seats in this GE for a Tory minority government and another election later this year. But that's a weird tradeoff, as the more seats the LDs win, the more likely a hung parliament is!
Delusibeta
Banned
A Scottish independence poll was released today, whereby No went up and Yes went down.
So, right now: not likely.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
From my experience in Canada, Scotland will never leave. You have big momentum early on, then it wanes as the unofficial negotiation carrot is dangled in front of everyone for years and years until the generation that pushed for it is gone or has given up and the new generation has been accustomed to seeing independence as a disfavored out of date option.
Not happening.
Not happening.
Theonik
Member
The only permanent member of the UN security council that has pledged to not use nuclear weapons as first use, is China. (since 1968 at that)
Attitudes on first use vary between states with some refusing to rule out first use entirely but pledging to use them defensively. Overall NATO does not have an NFU policy. But in practice the attitudes in most states is against nuclear escalation.
Personally I consider any state that advocates first use in 'extreme circumstances' or any variation of that to be lying or not having a credible first use policy. (defacto nfu)
31GhostsIV
Banned
May using her speech to push her internet privacy-killing bullshit in a period when campaigning is supposed to be suspended is disgusting.
If she gets in again, and pushes this through... where does it all end? It began with the ISP level filters - I knew they were taking the privacy removal creep route. In the next few years will we basically have a Tory controlled intranet where our internet used to be?
In other May related news - has she defended Sadiq Khan against Trump's bullshit yet? Of course she hasn't.
If she gets in again, and pushes this through... where does it all end? It began with the ISP level filters - I knew they were taking the privacy removal creep route. In the next few years will we basically have a Tory controlled intranet where our internet used to be?
In other May related news - has she defended Sadiq Khan against Trump's bullshit yet? Of course she hasn't.
Dirtyshubb
Member
Another person's perspective from the Amber Rudd censorship event.
https://twitter.com/gibgibgibgibgib/status/871094311919656960
https://twitter.com/gibgibgibgibgib/status/871094311919656960
itsbenoclock
Member
Tweeted that Rudd video at Owen Jones, anyone else I can send it to? Don't know many names of journalists myself.
Theonik
Member
Could get it to the Daily Express but don't know how much good that'll do!
Downing Street has defended Khan and emphasised his role in COBR-A today etc.
Plenty of shit to throw at these bastards without falsehoods.
frankie_baby
Member
As a tourist why the fuck would you care?
SporeCrawler
Member
well who knows what kind of travel restrictions there will be when the UK gets out of the EU. i could see some harsh restrictions being put in place by the europeans, as having to get a visa in advance - vetting included - before you can enter the eu (which will be agonizing for people in gibraltar and northern ireland). its likely that the opposite will also be the case. tourism will be restricted simply because there are not enough people to review all those visa applications. a waiver programme would be a solution but at this political climate I doubt it will happen.
frankie_baby
Member
Well if thats his issue then he might as well just visit now, the UK scotland included is still in the EU and will be for at least the next 21 months (wouldnt surprise me if that deadline gets extended a fair bit too), I'd also expect visa free tourism to and from the EU would be pretty lilely after brexit anyway
Just thr way he said it seemed totally bizarre, it'd be like me saying i wanted to visit Vermont but only when it was its own country that was in NAFTA
Seems like you're just being sentimental about it, it doesn't seem likely that a strict visa policy will be put in place between the UK and the EU at the current time. That's just some melodrama. I think people get caught up in emotional waves like this, and of course that has been encouraged by the idiot Theresa May since she's become PM, but that is as a strategy to solidify her support, and it has failed to galvanise her supporters since she has been bleeding support since the campaign began.
As for Scottish independence, it seems like it has fallen by the wayside as a pressing issue for the moment while this election goes on and what Brexit is going to entail. I could see it gaining support again from its current level of, apparently about 40%, if the Tories do win a majority and continue to ignore Scotland's opinion on the issue and enact their typical policies.
I think right now it's impossible to say how likely Scottish independence is in the short to mid-term, we'd need to wait until all the tumult settles down and the issue can get some focus.
AHA-Lambda
Member
FFS >_<
Dirtyshubb
Member
Anyone watched the last leg with Emily Thornberry?
I think Labour are going to come out HARD on May's history of failures on protecting the country tonight.
I'm fucking hoping they mention the weapon sales to the Saudis, force the papers to cover it and it could be a massive blow. That's the sort of shit that could turn even the hardest tory if they believe the government have actively helped in creating terrorists.
I think Labour are going to come out HARD on May's history of failures on protecting the country tonight.
I'm fucking hoping they mention the weapon sales to the Saudis, force the papers to cover it and it could be a massive blow. That's the sort of shit that could turn even the hardest tory if they believe the government have actively helped in creating terrorists.
chromatic9
Member
Two years is a long time. Not really worth gauging Scottish independence until we're certain what the deal is and we actually leave.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yup, I don't think it's a coincidence that the zenith of the Scottish independence movement came at a time of economic hardship following the credit crunch. If the UK economy falters and there's an obvious fix by entering Europe, the SNP will have a powerful card to play.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Not much - Corbyn will give a quiet speech tonight. Real campaigns resume tomorrow.
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