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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Audioboxer

Member
Get the whisky out first!

That reminds me, I should buy a bottle of something nice for Thursday night.

The rest of Scotland will invade them and take their damn whisky away if they go blue. Go red if you have to, not blue.

I live in Perth and I'm getting Conservative flyers almost daily - they're really gunning for this seat.

Makes sense. Angus is an asset in Westminster.

pgMm9bB.png


It still requires a sizeable swing. Either SNP voters not turning up, or them moving to Tory. There's not enough Labour alone to play catch up.

Although watching the turnout will be interesting, as 69% is still a bit low.
 

Spuck-uk

Banned
Just had an old man post another conservative party leaflet through my door. The third one in the last couple of weeks. Seems they are pushing really hard here for some reason. It's normally a labour safe seat but I guess they feel like it's up for grabs.

They seem to be taking a new direction too. "Do you think Corbyn as PM can't happen?" with comparisons to surprise Trump and Brexit wins.

I love that bit of advertising, it's just really stupid and accidentally energising to people who vote Labour.
 
Corbyn is probably the closest the LD will ever get to voter reform since I actually would think he'd be for it.

If you just reformed voting then you're basically giving the Lib Dems a near permanent seat in government - there's far too many seats in this country where the LDs would be the compromise candidate between left and right. For actual fairness you'd need to totally re-write the rules of government to make sure that centrists are not overrepresented.

The reason why the left and right voted down AV was to make sure this didn't happen - the Tories win majorities with 38% of the vote and are unpopular with the majority of society. They'd find it nearly impossible to ever win power under such a system - same as Labour.

BTW Labour Uncut have infiltrated Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...vately-be-preparing-for-a-u-k-election-defeat
 

WhatNXt

Member
If you just reformed voting then you're basically giving the Lib Dems a near permanent seat in government - there's far too many seats in this country where the LDs would be the compromise candidate between left and right. For actual fairness you'd need to totally re-write the rules of government to make sure that centrists are not overrepresented.

The reason why the left and right voted down AV was to make sure this didn't happen - the Tories win majorities with 38% of the vote and are unpopular with the majority of society. They'd find it nearly impossible to ever win power under such a system - same as Labour.

People always say that, that there would need to be some kind of alteration to ensure effective changes in government - and that it would result in more coalitions - but I don't think that's necessarily true. Or if it is, that it's necessarily bad.

The fact is, people tire of the incumbent and whatever the incumbent represents, the moment they stop getting the desired results. I'm fairly sure that a failing centrist government would be replaced by something to the left or the right, or that something to the left would eventually be replaced - almost cyclically - by something from the right. Enough years of a failing coalition would see people unite behind a convincing alternative, singular candidate.

Our current system, of allowing such large ideological changes, to allow things like the last 7 years of austerity - based on the will of a very small number of the electorate - is just crazy. We need a proper second house too. I would love some kind of voting reform.
 

Spuck-uk

Banned
If you just reformed voting then you're basically giving the Lib Dems a near permanent seat in government - there's far too many seats in this country where the LDs would be the compromise candidate between left and right. For actual fairness you'd need to totally re-write the rules of government to make sure that centrists are not overrepresented.

The reason why the left and right voted down AV was to make sure this didn't happen - the Tories win majorities with 38% of the vote and are unpopular with the majority of society. They'd find it nearly impossible to ever win power under such a system - same as Labour.

BTW Labour Uncut have infiltrated Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...vately-be-preparing-for-a-u-k-election-defeat

Ew, Labour Uncut, gross. Wonder who they'll be sending up as a sacrifice for the next leadership attempt.

Our current system dooms us to a 2 party state, much like America. It's shitty and people don't want to change it. AV was still crap, but at least a step in the right direction.

Huw salivating over the prospect of the Lib Dems having some kind of sniff of power aside, change does need to happen.
 
One thing of note: Had the Lib Dems won 2,000 more votes in the West of England mayoral contest, we'd have won the mayoralty. *That* is how powerful the 2nd preference system is for Lib Dems.

You'd get exactly one Lib Dem government, and then the entire electoral and government system would be rewritten from the ground up.
 

Meadows

Banned
Bloomberg said:
One candidate said that while the vote will hold up in the metropolitan areas of London, Leeds, Manchester and Liverpool, it is falling away elsewhere and Labour is likely to lose swathes of seats in northeast England, the Midlands, Yorkshire, and across the Pennine hills.

Corbyn has come from behind to close the gap with May, who suffered from a series of campaign missteps. Nevertheless, Labour candidates said their leader is still a drag on their party's fortunes. One said there's every chance the party will lose 70 seats, on track to get as few as 160 seats.

But the results may not all go in one direction. Candidates said they thought the party could pick off some seats from the Conservatives in Wales and in city centers. They agreed that young people love Corbyn but doubted whether that enthusiasm will translate into votes.

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...vately-be-preparing-for-a-u-k-election-defeat

yeesh
 
Well I have been wondering about getting a CRISPR and creating virus that only targets people with significantly shortened telomeres and with a shelf life of say, ten years before it self destructs.

Wait er, I mean, er, I LOVE OLD PEOPLE. THEY'RE GREAT.
Sounds like a Great idea, let's do it.

12monkeys2.gif
 
There's the chestnut of the majority of Labour's seats being Leave but the majority of their voters being Remain.

It's not outside the realm of possibility for Labour to end up stacking up 160 Liverpool Waltons in the metropolitan seats where the Tories traditionally do worse anyway and still losing the election by a big margin.

I would SERIOUSLY hope that some bizarre 40/40 split that saw the Tories gain over twice the number of seats Labour did would make Labour consider voting reform, but I'm not confident.
 

Meadows

Banned
Final Opinium poll before the election (they were the most accurate in 2015)

CON 43 (-)
LAB 36 (-1)
LDEM 8 (+2)
UKIP 5 (-)
SNP 5 (-)
GRN 2(-)

(Polling from the 4th June. Numbers compared to polls from 30th May)

(Source: Guardian)
 

Pandy

Member
If you just reformed voting then you're basically giving the Lib Dems a near permanent seat in government - there's far too many seats in this country where the LDs would be the compromise candidate between left and right. For actual fairness you'd need to totally re-write the rules of government to make sure that centrists are not overrepresented.

The reason why the left and right voted down AV was to make sure this didn't happen - the Tories win majorities with 38% of the vote and are unpopular with the majority of society. They'd find it nearly impossible to ever win power under such a system - same as Labour.

BTW Labour Uncut have infiltrated Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...vately-be-preparing-for-a-u-k-election-defeat

Nobody wanted AV. It was a strawman sent out to fail. (I did vote for it in the hope it would trigger more changes.)
If Lab/SNP/Lib Dem could agree on nothing else other than getting an EFTA deal from Brexit, and a 2022 GE to be held under STV, the UK would be in a much better place than it looks like being today.

All hypothetical guff, of course. The Tories are going to burn the country down.
 

Uzzy

Member
Finally got a campaign leaflet from the Tories, two in two days actually. Big focus on May, unsurprisingly.

I also finally got one from our next MP, the Labour candidate Emma Hardy. No mention of Corbyn, which is a little surprising tbh. They've also got a form I can fill in to get a free Vote Labour poster, which is great, though a little late!
 

Meadows

Banned
Seat predictions (based off those Opinium figures):

CON 349
LAB 221
LDEM 3 (ouch)
UKIP 0
SNP 55
GRN 1

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 24

I doubt the SNP would have that many or the LDs that few but the LAB/CON figures probably work out about right.
 

Dougald

Member
Literally got one thing from Labour through the door this entire campaign. :|

Same here, but the local lab ground campaign is nothing on the lib dems (8 leaflets) here

I only had one leaflet from the Conservatives but that's probably because their original shipment was... misplaced
 

Ashes

Banned
They probably think shy Tories + a lack of youth vote will scupper them

Areas where the youth have the biggest influence are already accounted for in Labour seats. So lack of the youth vote will hardly dent Labour aspirations.

In fact, Labour have only to gain, by any increase in the youth vote, in the marginals, because they just didn't turn up in previous elections.

Corbyn has this whole grassroots thing going that seems to be infecting communities.

He's got a credible shot at stopping the Tories from having a landslide.
 

Spuck-uk

Banned
Here's how the chips would fall if we had PR and the YouGov polls were right

Con: 273
Lab: 247
LD: 58
UKIP: 26
SNP: 26
Green: 13
 

nOoblet16

Member
Seat predictions (based off those Opinium figures):

CON 349
LAB 221
LDEM 3 (ouch)
UKIP 0
SNP 55
GRN 1

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 24

I doubt the SNP would have that many or the LDs that few but the LAB/CON figures probably work out about right.
This doesn't feel right but it'll probably end up this way.

Tories get to increase their majority like they wanted and all that Labour momentum we saw would account for fuck all on election day because of turnout among young voters and the shy Tories. Both are factors that affect pre election polls and can change the prediction on election day
 

Theonik

Member
If you just reformed voting then you're basically giving the Lib Dems a near permanent seat in government - there's far too many seats in this country where the LDs would be the compromise candidate between left and right. For actual fairness you'd need to totally re-write the rules of government to make sure that centrists are not overrepresented.

The reason why the left and right voted down AV was to make sure this didn't happen - the Tories win majorities with 38% of the vote and are unpopular with the majority of society. They'd find it nearly impossible to ever win power under such a system - same as Labour.
Not necessarily. Campaigning will also change if you were to change the voting system and centrists are already over-represented anyway. Labour is centre-left, Conservatives are centre-right, LD is centre. Of course getting rid of FPTP will change the governance of this country. For the better I would argue! Corbyn as a labour leader is much more likely than any other LAB or CON leader backing this.
 

King_Moc

Banned
Corbyn is probably the closest the LD will ever get to voting reform since I actually would think he'd be for it. But it would be a new referendum not the government's doing. Also the fixed parliaments act might keep a new election at bay. Though as you know all it would take is a 2 week period without a new government after no confidence to trigger it anyway.

Gordon Brown was actually on favour of it too. I think it was a manifesto pledge for 2010.
 
Seat predictions (based off those Opinium figures)

Ran it through on EC and got something like a Tory 48-seat majority.

Sod knows what's actually going to happen though. Seat predictions beyond "hey uh I guess the SNP will lose a few" are extremely hard to call. The only reason the SNP's one is obvious is because they got a fluke result in 2015 - the mid 40s is much more reflective of the Scottish situation.

Same here, but the local lab ground campaign is nothing on the lib dems (8 leaflets) here

I only had one leaflet from the Conservatives but that's probably because their original shipment was... misplaced

In case you're wondering what the impact of the LDs having 100k members is, your poor letterbox is a VERY good example. 100k members + lots of cash + stiff targeting = ???
 
I live in a Lib Dem area and they've been posting stuff most days, must cost a fortune with all these glossy leaflets but they're worried about losing ground to the Cons. Cons have done a decent amount of leaflets and Labour maybe 2-3. Lib Dem is 30-50 leaflets.
 

nOoblet16

Member
If you just reformed voting then you're basically giving the Lib Dems a near permanent seat in government - there's far too many seats in this country where the LDs would be the compromise candidate between left and right. For actual fairness you'd need to totally re-write the rules of government to make sure that centrists are not overrepresented.

The reason why the left and right voted down AV was to make sure this didn't happen - the Tories win majorities with 38% of the vote and are unpopular with the majority of society. They'd find OP's it nearly impossible to ever win power under such a system - same as Labour.

BTW Labour Uncut have infiltrated Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...vately-be-preparing-for-a-u-k-election-defeat
Why is that a bad thing? Why should a party that's unpopular with the majority of the public ever be in power? Beside isn't it just as unfair when a party that is unpopular among the majority of the public ends up being in power ?
 

CCS

Banned
A scene:

Theresa May looks down triumphantly. She's a couple of steps up the ladder away from claiming the belt. Nuttall is lying in a crumpled heap after slamming his own head into a ringside table. Robertson stormed out of the arena after being counted out. Farron is tangled in the ropes, incapable of making it to his feet. Corbyn's been smashed with so many copies of the Daily Mail that he can barely even find the strength to raise his arms.

And then, with his last desperate breaths, he slams his body into the ladder. It wobbles, it starts to topple sideways, but it doesn't quite go far enough. It's too strong, too stable. It rocks back the other way and begins to steady, as May prepares to reach upwards.

BUT WHO'S THIS?!?! A crowd of young people have broken through security, their weapons made out of smug thinkpieces about Millennial apathy unable to beat them back!! They reach the ladder, and before anyone can stop them, before the Nuclear Nine can make it into the ring, they give the ladder an almighty shove and it falls, and with it so does May.

The crowd are screaming, delirious with joy as these young heroes form their bodies into a human pyramid for Corbyn to climb towards the prize. Almost unnoticed, one of the brave students has peeled off and walks towards May. As she cowers before him, he lifts her up with one mighty arm.

Something's wrong though. That's not a face... it's a mask! Slowly, savouring the moment he raises his other hand and slowly peels it from his face. And so his true identity is revealed:

"It was me, Theresa! It was me all along!" screams Boris Johnson.
 

Jezbollah

Member
I'd be very wary of believing that shit, reasons explained why by Spuck-uk a few posts back

Given the polling in the last election, EU referendum and US election, I'm taking all polls with a pinch of salt. That exit poll is the be all and end all IMO prior to declarations.
 

WhatNXt

Member
A scene:

Theresa May looks down triumphantly. She's a couple of steps up the ladder away from claiming the belt. Nuttall is lying in a crumpled heap after slamming his own head into a ringside table. Robertson stormed out of the arena after being counted out. Farron is tangled in the ropes, incapable of making it to his feet. Corbyn's been smashed with so many copies of the Daily Mail that he can barely even find the strength to raise his arms.

And then, with his last desperate breaths, he slams his body into the ladder. It wobbles, it starts to topple sideways, but it doesn't quite go far enough. It's too strong, too stable. It rocks back the other way and begins to steady, as May prepares to reach upwards.

BUT WHO'S THIS?!?! A crowd of young people have broken through security, their weapons made out of smug thinkpieces about Millennial apathy unable to beat them back!! They reach the ladder, and before anyone can stop them, before the Nuclear Nine can make it into the ring, they give the ladder an almighty shove and it falls, and with it so does May.

The crowd are screaming, delirious with joy as these young heroes form their bodies into a human pyramid for Corbyn to climb towards the prize. Almost unnoticed, one of the brave students has peeled off and walks towards May. As she cowers before him, he lifts her up with one mighty arm.

Something's wrong though. That's not a face... it's a mask! Slowly, savouring the moment he raises his other hand and slowly peels it from his face. And so his true identity is revealed:

"It was me, Theresa! It was me all along!" screams Boris Johnson.

😂 this is better than the Harry Potter election thing

Your own work?
 

pulsemyne

Member
Seat predictions (based off those Opinium figures):

CON 349
LAB 221
LDEM 3 (ouch)
UKIP 0
SNP 55
GRN 1

CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 24

I doubt the SNP would have that many or the LDs that few but the LAB/CON figures probably work out about right.

Yeah I can see this pretty much being the case. Basically the entire election will turn out to rather points in terms of majority and May could end up being thrown on the dung heap.
 

Pandy

Member
Given the polling in the last election, EU referendum and US election, I'm taking all polls with a pinch of salt. That exit poll is the be all and end all IMO prior to declarations.

I always think exit polls are such weird things. The results are just a few hours away by that point.
 

WhatNXt

Member
So...I was wary of posting this as it could be absolute bollocks, so PLEASE keep in mind that this could be a load of shit - but the language in it is quite realistic.

https://twitter.com/SINON_REBORN

This could be a big problem for Labour this close to an election.

If she'd have agreed to lying about her condition I think it would be worse, but on the face of it it, even in a successful entrapment - it sounds like she was uncomfortable with saying anything false, and is in fact not well / not up to facing the media.

The more pertinent attack that could be gleaned from it is that she was gullible enough to reply and couldn't be trusted with high office for such a reason.

Does he/she just spoof emails and fool his way in to peoples confidence or does he actually break in to accounts? First time I'm hearing of this

Edit: 1 month old twitter account IS a red flag
 
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