Spuck-uk
Banned
Nate Silver has shown that polling for the UK is especially awful and, variance is massive.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Nate Silver has shown that polling for the UK is especially awful and, variance is massive.
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
I honestly have no idea how the vote goes (coming from someone who predicted Brexit and Trump).
I would have anticipated a Tory landslide a few werks back, but tge more I think about it, I reckon a lot of the angry Brexiteers might stay home, which might give a chance for Labour to close the gap. Only, I dont think Corbyn taps succesfully into the popular zeitgeist, or is pro Europe enough to attract the Remain camp.
Maybe a Tory majority of 30?
I would have anticipated a Tory landslide a few werks back, but tge more I think about it, I reckon a lot of the angry Brexiteers might stay home, which might give a chance for Labour to close the gap. Only, I dont think Corbyn taps succesfully into the popular zeitgeist, or is pro Europe enough to attract the Remain camp.
Maybe a Tory majority of 30?
I love 538 but I do think that they've chickened out somewhat - calling out all the predictions that people are making but then not doing their own because they don't think that there is enough data out there.
Their 2015 predictions were way off.
Roberto Larcos
Member
We've come a long way since this thing was announced. All of me, Crab, QuicheFontaine and mo60 predicted a Conservative majority north of 200. Crab and QuicheFontaine gave the Tories over 400 seats!
Huw_Dawson
Member
I think this article's solid - one of the best articles I've seen on LD prospects:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ightback-tim-farron-election?CMP=share_btn_tw
Basically - no huge fightback (obviously) but the internal targeting has gone well.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ightback-tim-farron-election?CMP=share_btn_tw
Basically - no huge fightback (obviously) but the internal targeting has gone well.
Thornton Reed
Member
I'm so glad I'm seeing pessimistic predictions in this thread. NEogaf is my echo chamber and seeing the users getting excited about the closing polls would ultimately lead to a bigger disappointment.
I'm not clued up enough to do a full party prediction. I do however expect a small increase in the Tory majority. In fact I would say this is my preferred outcome. I don't want a labour government anywhere near the fallout of brexit.
We need to stick it out another 5 years, stay true to the policies in the manifesto and we can smash the tories in the next election. I'm playing the long game.
I'm not clued up enough to do a full party prediction. I do however expect a small increase in the Tory majority. In fact I would say this is my preferred outcome. I don't want a labour government anywhere near the fallout of brexit.
We need to stick it out another 5 years, stay true to the policies in the manifesto and we can smash the tories in the next election. I'm playing the long game.
Spuck-uk
Banned
I sort of saw it as an admission of failure on their own previous efforts, but it's an interesting read to see just HOW wrong polls have had the GE and Brexit results here.
They're an aggregator. All the fancy models in the world don't work when data set itself is poor.
TheCrackInTime
Neo Member
Would Goldsmith losing again count as being Portillo'd? Given he's not the incumbent, I'd liken it more to a Farage moment.
Exactly. If they don't have a clue, I've got no chance!
The polls got it wrong last time, but it's inaccurate to say they were a million miles off.
I know but their involvement in UK politics is just basically slagging off our pollsters for a few weeks and then not saying anything for years until the next election.
I guess they are US-based but their skills could be used so much around the world, I love love love their content.
Spuck-uk
Banned
I don't really see where they go from here if they don't increase their seats a substantial amount.
Ah, pro-Indy majority, I get you now.
Nate Silver in particular was quite far off in 2015 (https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/), as were several of the polls.
Roberto Larcos
Member
Feel free to put in the YouGov, Ashcroft or Britain Elects predictions if you're really feeling stuck.
Zvonimir Boban
Banned
A posh accent lets you get away with a lot of shit.
Seems relevant to some in here:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/polit...r-saying-theyre-scum-otherwise-20170606128892
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/polit...r-saying-theyre-scum-otherwise-20170606128892
Stuff that is so pie in the sky that it could never reasonably actioned. If for some reason they managed to find a way to come to an agreement, it would have a shelf life of a year max and then the Tories would come in and dick slam them at an election.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Alright, I can sort of answer that:
1. The return of the decapitated LD top brass - Cable/Swinson/Davey/Hughes and a few others - could seriously help with visibility. Cable especially is well-known.
2. With UKIP collapsed, the BBC has more time for England's third party, probably leading to more visibility there, too.
3. Brexit is going to be very hard and the public are totally unprepared. Whatever happens, negative sentiment is likely.
4. Despite the net loss in seats, the LD vote was seriously up at council level in May. Outside of a GE year the LDs could be looking at a few years of consistently good local election results - again improving visibility.
5. Tim Farron sticks on as leader for the next five years, so the public by-and-large know who he is and have seen him enough times to not be throwing their vote in the dark.
Plus being seven years out from the Coalition. Time does heal wounds.
Alternatively, we get drubbed on Thursday and Brexit isn't a disaster, and we sort of muddle around for a decade before getting our act together.
I do want to stress though - the party has been through this apocalypse once before, after the merger. We fought back, clung on in 1992 and returned a result that set the LDs on course for a return to government. It'll happen again.
Thornton Reed
Member
I've got one of him in my office haha
hydrophilic attack
Member
Ok, so to accommodate any defectors from other parties. I don't really think you would get any, but that would make sense in such a hypothetical scenario. But a name change is the least important part of such a process to accommodate these people. What associated changes in policy would you propose?
ShemhazaiX
Member
Question: If an elderly send in a postal vote in advance, then died before voting day, would their vote count?
...
......
That sounded more ominous than I wanted. Just saw that a friends grandad died recently and since I've been spending time in this thread the question just jumped into my head.
...
......
That sounded more ominous than I wanted. Just saw that a friends grandad died recently and since I've been spending time in this thread the question just jumped into my head.
JonathanEx
Member
Conservative Party seats: 362
Green Party seats: 1
Labour seats: 214
Lib Dem seats: 5
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
SNP seats: 47
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: 0
Seats held by other parties: 18
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?* No
The Portillo award goes to..? Im Sorry Im Sorry Its Nick Clegg Im Sorry
First resignation of the night? Angus
How many party leaders will resign? 1
Seat for Nuttall? LOL NO
Margin of victory by seats: 148
Margin of victory by votes: 3,000,000
I used http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ and some tweaking to help figure out numbers. If you use it, make sure you stick on the option to make some guesses for Scotland otherwise you end up leaving it as is really which we all know is unlikely.
Green Party seats: 1
Labour seats: 214
Lib Dem seats: 5
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
SNP seats: 47
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: 0
Seats held by other parties: 18
BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales?* No
The Portillo award goes to..? Im Sorry Im Sorry Its Nick Clegg Im Sorry
First resignation of the night? Angus
How many party leaders will resign? 1
Seat for Nuttall? LOL NO
Margin of victory by seats: 148
Margin of victory by votes: 3,000,000
I used http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/ and some tweaking to help figure out numbers. If you use it, make sure you stick on the option to make some guesses for Scotland otherwise you end up leaving it as is really which we all know is unlikely.
Yes. The University of Manchester believes this affects 3,000 votes per election.
http://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/how-many-dead-people-vote/
No speaker for the house?
Dirtyshubb
Member
So what your saying is kill all the old and nullify the majority of the Conservatives votes?
How dare you suggest such things?!
we gonna need a lot more people to get things done lol
Huw_Dawson
Member
I'd propose a simplification of our policy - we'd advocate re-joining the EU, reforming government, investing heavily in the NHS, social care and education.
I'd also use it as an opportunity for a new generation to take up the fight. We could do with a 30-something person with their head screwed on like Macron.
The core of it though would be to facilitate bringing on new voters - scrapping the wooly "nerd" Lib Dem image and really putting fire into the campaigning moving forwards.
JonathanEx
Member
Oh sorry I counted him as Cons even though in practice he isn't. Deduct that one and make him independent, rookie error.
That
OR
We're taking back so much control no speaker's gonna tell us what to do
Just had an old man post another conservative party leaflet through my door. The third one in the last couple of weeks. Seems they are pushing really hard here for some reason. It's normally a labour safe seat but I guess they feel like it's up for grabs.
They seem to be taking a new direction too. "Do you think Corbyn as PM can't happen?" with comparisons to surprise Trump and Brexit wins.
They seem to be taking a new direction too. "Do you think Corbyn as PM can't happen?" with comparisons to surprise Trump and Brexit wins.
Theonik
Member
LD: Voting Reform, free voting on Brexit deal, commitment to work towards staying in the single market.
SNP: Indyref 2 at the discretion of the Scottish parliament. Protect the rights of Scots in Brexit. Single Market maybe. Voting reform.
Greens: Single Market. Commitments in law for Paris Agreement. More power to local councils. Voting reform.
Plaid: More devolution for Wales.
2nd Referendum, Quinoa in free school meals, Dragons on the Union Flag and the Schulze method being adopted for elections.
CarlisleDavid1979
Member
Had somebody post a conservative leaflet through the door the other day. I just calmly opened the door and handed it back.
If it's a safe Labour seat, I'm not sure why they're bothering.
There's nothing wrong with Tim Farron as a leader. If he were part of a higher polling party like Labour, I have a feeling he would be very very popular. His performances recently have done him great credit too.
The problems you face are a media that prefer polarising scenarios and FPTP, cajoling everyone in to a difficult decision between multiple progressive parties - effectively ensuring a two horse race. Limited media coverage ensures people like me don't actually know who Lib Dems in the periphery are as well. The SNP probably enjoy greater mindshare at the moment. Peoples ears pricked up because of indyref, and young prospects like Mhairi Black brought a fire to the working class cause at a time when Labour opposition was lacking. With the ConDem coalition not being so long ago in the national memory, I think Farron has done well to stem the bleeding and rehabilitate the party's image, but it was always too early to massively increase their share in this election cycle. I thought Farron was right to point out that the SNP went from something like 6 seats to Holyrood Dominance... if the circumstances are right it can happen.
All you can really do is campaign for what you believe in.
Our electoral system needs serious reform. Not the gerrymandering and spread of FPTP to other elections that the Conservatives currently propose.
Coincidentally, Labour have begun posting the exact same leaflets dyed red through the doors of student accommodation.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Corbyn would be suicidal to give LDs voting reform. We'd jump as soon as the legislation passed and get a GE called then and there.
All those hard-nosed Labour supporters in unwinnable LD/Con seats being able to put us down as the 2nd preference... such would be the dream. He'd be guaranteeing Lib Dems as permanent king makers.
Audioboxer
Member
Moray deserves to be a genuine nuke zone if they oust Robertson and put in a Tory (Ross). I understand it's the place all the papers and polls are doing their sabre rattling but I think Angus can hold on. He's one of the best voices in London, so as I said, if Moray put him out they deserve to be nuked into austerity and irrelevance. The Brexit result there is already bad enough.
The swing Ross needs is fairly decent. It would require SNP voters to go to Tory as well as what little is left of Labour.
The swing Ross needs is fairly decent. It would require SNP voters to go to Tory as well as what little is left of Labour.
ShemhazaiX
Member
Well I have been wondering about getting a CRISPR and creating virus that only targets people with significantly shortened telomeres and with a shelf life of say, ten years before it self destructs.
Wait er, I mean, er, I LOVE OLD PEOPLE. THEY'RE GREAT.
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
Get that leaflet checked for anthrax residue.
yeah but you pinko hippy fucks will get rid of our trident so we can't even do that
bants
It would be the right thing to do though. I know it would increase vote shares for other parties across the board, but that would be better representative of how people feel, and of what people want to see. Whoever brought in a more representative electoral system would reap rewards out of respect alone.
Of course, we'd probably first have to overcome something like the AV referendum. It was a flawed option, but a depressing reminder that people fear the unknown and find great comfort in the status quo.
Audioboxer
Member
Quite honestly I'll settle for backing out of contributing to funding it and sending it 'down the river' to sit somewhere near London!
I'm sure the Nuclear Nine will feel safer with it much nearer to their homes.
Spuck-uk
Banned
Like a free appointment at the guillotine.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Get the whisky out first!
That reminds me, I should buy a bottle of something nice for Thursday night.
Theonik
Member
Corbyn is probably the closest the LD will ever get to voting reform since I actually would think he'd be for it. But it would be a new referendum not the government's doing. Also the fixed parliaments act might keep a new election at bay. Though as you know all it would take is a 2 week period without a new government after no confidence to trigger it anyway.
Until Brexit happened, I would have believed this.
Dreams of hope and something better can really catch people. Even if it's based on lies.
Spuck-uk
Banned
We don't have the runoff system that would allow a Macron anywhere near the PM position. I mean, I prefer the French system, but it's not what we have.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
I live in Perth and I'm getting Conservative flyers almost daily - they're really gunning for this seat - this is a (small "c") conservative place though: a lot of Tweed-wearing older folks.
It's pretty reserved as anti-Tory things go, but Cassetteboy's contribution to the GE is pretty decent: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7iUYWMD77w
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