PJV3
Member
I have a feeling the UK might be pretty low down the list of problems to be sorted if France went Le Pen. It's the Brits forgetting the rest of the world still exists when we don't think about it.
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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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I have a feeling the UK might be pretty low down the list of problems to be sorted if France went Le Pen. It's the Brits forgetting the rest of the world still exists when we don't think about it.
You would have to be moronic to think, in the long term, a Le Pen victory would be good for the UK. It would trigger a referendum, with the outcome having the potential to bring about the collapse of the EU. The resulting European instability would dwarf any benefits during trade negotiations.
So par-for-the-course for Leave voters then.
So par-for-the-course for Leave voters then.
Huw_Dawson
Member
I mean, Le Pen winning would represent the political disintegration of the EU and the formation of a France/Russia power bloc. It would leave Germany as the de-facto leader of liberal Europe.
There is no good situation in Europe if Le Pen wins and you have a rich, united Germany stuck between two far-right nuclear powers and an isolationist UK.
There is no good situation in Europe if Le Pen wins and you have a rich, united Germany stuck between two far-right nuclear powers and an isolationist UK.
Duplo probably. Lego is out of Trump's age range.
Would Le Pen have the UK border controlled on her side?
For posterity's sake, I don't actually believe this.
She actually attacked Macron for threatening to close the camps. But it was just to inject her strong borders are the answer soundbite.
So who knows? She's unpredictable like Trump.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
The FT is saying the EU wants a post brexit membership for a united ireland. They are preparing to recognise a United Ireland.
We can all fight the Germans again like the good old days
PJV3
Member
I think too much can be read into that, it's better than leaving the province in limbo or the argument being used to try and squash any move towards a united Ireland.
A route forward is there if the people want it.
Huw_Dawson
Member
No, they're going to outline the legal situation in case Ireland unified in the future - they'd recognise the six counties as being a part of Ireland, just as East Germany was recognised as being part of Germany and thus the EU.
QuicheFontaine
Member
I don't see why not. That arrangement benefits both sides.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
Wow.
FT needs to be more careful with its wording then.
FT needs to be more careful with its wording then.
PJV3
Member
Unionists would prefer the EU not to say it, they could use the same threats that are used on Scotland, auto EU entry if united with Ireland is just sensible.
I'd love ít to happen for us but tbh the case for a United Ireland getting auto entry is stronger.
East Germany etc
JimiNutz
Banned
Oh the irony if WWIII breaks out and Russia, France, UK are fighting against Germany again but this time Germany are the 'good' guys.
Draft the passive-aggressive 50 year old mail readers. Let them live out their fantasy and the rest of us can watch.
Frankfurter
Member
Would be a pretty short fight though. Maybe Germany could ally up with the massive military power Austria?
anonymous_abc
Member
Don't forget Hungary.
PJV3
Member
It's all what ifs, but if Trump hadn't been hamstrung by his Russian problem would we have been able to maintain that foreign policy.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Very quiet day politically, it seems.
I hope we get some new juicy polls out soon. How has gay sex and David Ward affected Farron? Has Corbyn's policy initiative convinced voters to swing his way? Have UKIP backslid further?
I hope we get some new juicy polls out soon. How has gay sex and David Ward affected Farron? Has Corbyn's policy initiative convinced voters to swing his way? Have UKIP backslid further?
31GhostsIV
Banned
Thinking that a right wing government in France and a Frexit is somehow good for Britain is ridiculously short sighted. You think Le Pen will do any favours to UK? Or that France wouldn't be at that point in direct competition with UK? What would be the end game here besides tariffs and protectionism everywhere?
I wasn't saying it was a good idea. I was simply pointing out why the poll had a stupid question.
A little too late to be cool, but unless they change their tune I imagine it'll be relevant for the next few weeks anyway:
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
In all seriousness, a coalition with nationalists wouldn't work out. It might work out sometimes in Belgium, but their system is a bit different and far less stable. Actually it's very different.
And the Lib Dems claim they won't join a coalition. Given how 2015 went for them, I'm inclined to believe them.
A coalition seems highly unlikely, less likely than a narrow Labour victory even. There's no reason to expect that, nor is there reason to expect a hung parliament. So I'm not not sure why people are even discussing silly party lines like that.
I mean there's been a coalition this decade if it came to that. It can work and they can last the full term.
PJV3
Member
Labour wouldn't want any kind of official deal with the SNP, what they would want is the SNP to bring a Labour government down and return to the Scottish political wilderness.
Boston and Skegness
Yeah it's the constituency where I live. I know we had the highest leave percentage vote here in Boston but I don't think he'll win the seat. Last year's UKIP guy lost out by about 4,000 votes and the area is majorly Tory. Tory guy will hold it
PJV3
Member
Boston and Skegness
Yeah it's the constituency where I live. I know we had the highest leave percentage vote here in Boston but I don't think he'll win the seat. Last year's UKIP guy lost out by about 4,000 votes and the area is majorly Tory. Tory guy will hold it
He's doing it because not to would be the end of the party, I think he knows it's over anyway.
Oh yeah for sure. I'm certain he'll do relatively well in terms of votes. But no way he'll beat the tories
speech by Corbyn this morning
Disenfranchisement of the young is the biggest problem we face in politics today. I'm 21, at a big campus University, and most everyone I speak to is pro-Labour, and a good majority of non-University people my age are too; so many of them didn't vote in the last GE though, and it's a massive shame.
Disenfranchisement of the young is the biggest problem we face in politics today. I'm 21, at a big campus University, and most everyone I speak to is pro-Labour, and a good majority of non-University people my age are too; so many of them didn't vote in the last GE though, and it's a massive shame.
The Hamburglar
Banned
ukip leader running for the seat that had the highest leave votes. sounds like opportunism to be an MP and all the benefits that comes with. Otherwise he would stand elsewhere.
That's the best speech I've heard out of corbyn for a long time.
i've actually been quite impressed by corbyn and the labour campaign so far. it's a lot more professional an operation than i was expecting in traditional terms - steady drip of policy announcements along a consistent theme, doing well to hit all the news cycles, corbyn has improved a lot as a speaker and is doing good populist messages. honestly it's better than the 2015 one so far.
while a good campaign doesn't matter if you have the wrong leader and the wrong message, maybe the contrast with the complete anonymity of the lib dem campaign (despite their repeated claims that labour don't offer strong opposition and they will lmao) will prevent them haemorrhaging votes that way.
while a good campaign doesn't matter if you have the wrong leader and the wrong message, maybe the contrast with the complete anonymity of the lib dem campaign (despite their repeated claims that labour don't offer strong opposition and they will lmao) will prevent them haemorrhaging votes that way.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Getting as many young people signed up to vote is going to backfire for him, but getting as many signed up to vote as possible is a good idea. It helps that it is trivial to do so via the Gov.uk website.
He is going to be pitching a lefty anti-EU message to the young. That will work in areas without a LD presence, but won't in any area where the Lib Dems talk about Brexit.
The 'anonymity' of the LD campaign is not really right to say so far. It's mostly that Corbyn has released/reheated policy early and the LDs have mostly just been setting up our campaigns. We are getting good coverage compared to the total lack of coverage we usually get at the start of the election.
What is *not* a surprise is that Corbyn not falling on his face has been lauded by his supporters of how amazingly he's doing.
However I do expect tonight and tomorrow's polls to reflect a small bounce for Corbyn, and probably only a little bit of movement for the LDs.
He is going to be pitching a lefty anti-EU message to the young. That will work in areas without a LD presence, but won't in any area where the Lib Dems talk about Brexit.
The 'anonymity' of the LD campaign is not really right to say so far. It's mostly that Corbyn has released/reheated policy early and the LDs have mostly just been setting up our campaigns. We are getting good coverage compared to the total lack of coverage we usually get at the start of the election.
What is *not* a surprise is that Corbyn not falling on his face has been lauded by his supporters of how amazingly he's doing.
However I do expect tonight and tomorrow's polls to reflect a small bounce for Corbyn, and probably only a little bit of movement for the LDs.
Royal_Phalanx
Member
I saw a YouGov poll saying a load of people are unclear on the Lib Dem EU policy. Lib Dems need to go all out on the messaging.
boxoctosis
Member
This reads like apathy rather than disenfranchisement?
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Agreed. I can't stand Corbyn but he is doing absolutely fine. I actually think the Tories have done a very poor job besides repeating their mantra. Whilst we can all say that doing so is effective, that is a limited strategy and only really works because they have so many established advantages. In the long term such disrespect and arrogance will punish them. Especially if they don't deliver stability.
The problem is that the terms for the election have already been set up. Corbyn's reputation is set. May's is set* and the spectre of Brexit looms over all.
*though I think she is actually rigid and inflexible rather than strong and stable.
Huw_Dawson
Member
This is why we will be doing much better in seats we focus our campaigning in than the national polls would suggest.
We're fighting for scraps this election in some ways, but we've been in this situation of a likely victory being known before the start of the campaign and using it as an opportunity to get our vote out in winnable seats. See: the Kennedy years.
SporeCrawler
Member
you want war in europe? like really?
Pyroclastic
Banned
youth vote is apathetic because there's rarely ever a shining light candidate, so why bother if there isn't someone who they agree with 99.9%, which I guess must feel like disenfranchisement. whereas in other demographics people will vote for shit on a stick if they say "actually we smell really nice and will smell even better in the future"
One of the cases for corbyn is that apparently he's engerising a new generation of activists and stuff who will help get out the vote. feels like it's going to be a tough to make the case if they're going to run away from almost everything that happened the last time his party were in power.
hopefully the percentage will at least be higher than the piss poor showing in the referendum. If not you have to ask what corbyn is for really.
Miles Quaritch
Member
Boston and Skegness
Yeah it's the constituency where I live. I know we had the highest leave percentage vote here in Boston but I don't think he'll win the seat. Last year's UKIP guy lost out by about 4,000 votes and the area is majorly Tory. Tory guy will hold it
Wasn't there another poster who was from Boston?
He always used to talk about some incinerator or some shit? Ended up not being built and was a huge money sink?
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
That was Tak3n I think.
Miles Quaritch
Member
That's the guy.
Even though he was a stubborn sod, I would be interested to know what his thoughts are on the election and how the Tories have handled everything so far.
Gotta laugh at Theresa May coming to Scotland. It's being reported that she's gone to Aberdeen, she's actually in a village hall in the middle of nowhere miles from the city.
To make matters worse the Tory MSP who booked it as a children's party is under investigation for election fraud not declaring it, Haha.
Fuck the Tories. They simply do not belong in Scotland and I'm getting sick of having to see their vile faces and know that they ultimately have the power in Scotland. Bring on independence, Scotland doesn't need to sink in this red white and blue Brexit shambles.
To make matters worse the Tory MSP who booked it as a children's party is under investigation for election fraud not declaring it, Haha.
Fuck the Tories. They simply do not belong in Scotland and I'm getting sick of having to see their vile faces and know that they ultimately have the power in Scotland. Bring on independence, Scotland doesn't need to sink in this red white and blue Brexit shambles.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
The election fraud news has really gone under the radar. It is absolutely disgusting that an election can run given how many Tory MPs are under investigation.
blazinglord
Member
Well well if they had offered bribes to voters in order to solicit votes, or stuffed boxes with false ballot slips then yeah, it would be more serious. I doubt a few thousands on extra campaign literature had much of an impact on the result.
Indeed, I believe the worst possible outcome is that the MP in question would face if found guilty is as a rap over the knuckles (and potentially have to fight another by-election). But nobody is going to prison for this. As far as investigations go, it is pretty minor so that's why a big deal hasn't been made about it.
Campaign expenses bores everyone, I doubt most people even know what the spending limits are.
PJV3
Member
It was substantially more than that though if the C4 investigation is anything close to reality, It was systematic and centralised.
The fact the Tories are refusing to hand over reports to police regarding the bullying case has slipped by quietly as well.
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