UK PoliGAF: General election thread of LibCon Coalitionage
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What is it about migrants that makes employers looking to fill low-skill positions (cleaners, care assistants, etc) choose them over British workers?Linkified said:
The only logical conclusion is that either the migrant worker was better suited to the job (something that is an impossibility in these roles, as you said), or they were the only ones applying for that job.
Your strawman is built on quicksand. The unemployed British workers didn't want those jobs, or most of them would've got it. EU migrants are not the reason for the majority of unemployment. The causes are almost entirely domestic.
Almost all migrant jobs in this country exist because there are migrant workers to fill them. If you deported every singe migrant worker in the country, would there be a huge gap of unfilled working positions? No, because most of those jobs would disappear with the migrants. Its glossing over a deeper underlying problem, the "migrants" are just the easy target because they are foreign.
Even in your unrealistic scenario of 1:1 reduction in unemployment for each migrant worker who leaves the UK, look at this way. For every 1 Polish migrant you send home by withdrawing from the EU, you lose tens of thousands of possible Polish consumers for British companies to export to without tariff. At the same time every Polish good we import would suddenly become more expensive. Without that demand and low-cost supply many jobs, both high and low skilled, would not exist.Linkified said:
Enosh said:
I completely agree with this, often immigrants coming into the UK are unwilling to learn our Language, let alone be considerate of other cultures in the UK.
Mr. Sam said:
Just because i live here now, doesn't mean i didn't used to live in London
Linkified said:
Unfortunately we compete with our European neighbours for jobs, there's no-way going back from that, they often do the jobs that we wont do because the pay is too low. Immigration is good for our country, but the attitude of some (maybe not all) of these Immigrants can cause culture clashes or even riots.
People are by nature afraid and suspicious of closed communities (by closed i mean, those communities who don't speak English and/or are unwilling to speak to others who are not like themselves).
I also believe that although they may be taking low level jobs now, eventually it will swing the other way and British citizens will head to EU countries to take higher level jobs. The only problem right now is that standards of living for countries in the EU are variable, but in time that'll change and Immigration and emigration should equalize.
JonathanEx
Member
Good god, what's happened.
If only it were so easy. The training is there, it's available. I live in Glasgow, for example, where the city council will offer an opportunity for an apprenticeship to every school leaver. But it's more a problem of culture and changing attitudes than just having the training available. People have to want jobs, to try hard to get them, rather than just going to the local Job Centre and filling out a form, getting paid and going home. You can't throw money at this problem.Xavien said:
brain_stew
Member
Linkified said:
The joke character routine was funny at first, but you can give it up now, its ran its course.
Linkified said:
Again with the joke persona. We get it already, its just not funny anymore.
gutter_trash
Banned
Canadian here, I hope you guys don't go Torrie... Reaganomics are the reasons why we are in the shitter today economically
go Lib Dem if you want change
go Lib Dem if you want change
RustyNails
Member
So I guess you've never heard of Latin and Mexican (legal as well as illegal) immigrants with low education in US...Enosh said:
Taking the latest YouGov poll:
LibDems - 33%
Conservatives - 32%
Labour - 26%
If the trends continue to the 2 main parties bottoming out at their core support, and Lib Dems pick up that as well as a couple from the other parties:
LibDems - 38%
Conservatives - 30%
Labour - 25%
You could get this in seats:
Lib Dems - 214
Labour - 212
Conservatives - 196
... as the Lib Dem percentage goes up, things get increasingly volatile and start damaging both main parties. 38% seems to be the rough tipping point for them to overcome the FPTP bias against the 3rd party.
This week is going to be very interesting, if Clegg holds his own in the debate it really might be anyone's game.
LibDems - 33%
Conservatives - 32%
Labour - 26%
If the trends continue to the 2 main parties bottoming out at their core support, and Lib Dems pick up that as well as a couple from the other parties:
LibDems - 38%
Conservatives - 30%
Labour - 25%
You could get this in seats:
Lib Dems - 214
Labour - 212
Conservatives - 196
... as the Lib Dem percentage goes up, things get increasingly volatile and start damaging both main parties. 38% seems to be the rough tipping point for them to overcome the FPTP bias against the 3rd party.
This week is going to be very interesting, if Clegg holds his own in the debate it really might be anyone's game.
brain_stew
Member
DECK'ARD said:
Oh wow, that's very interesting, its crazy how a few more points could lead to twice as many seats. The Lib Dem's ratings in the polls has increased by around ~40% in just a single week so its not such a leap that they could increase that by another 15%.
Crazy, crazy times. I can just imagine Tory HQ going into panic mode, what a glorious image. :lol
Dabookerman
Member
Shut it you filthy white duck! Go back to your puddle!
brain_stew
Member
Chinner said:
I'm going to have to agree with this. RustyNails, your attempts to incite a non existent race war in this thread are just not necessary at all. This thread has gone along just nicely and people have only come out as angry in the last few pages because a closet BNP supporter deciding to spew his illogical Daily Mail sponsored rhetoric. I'd much rather get back to debating issues like voting reform, Trident, the economy and personal freedoms/liberty like we were previously though I can't speak for everyone.
RustyNails
Member
FINE I'll bail out now. It wasn't my intent to incite anything, just pointing out stuff. You brits can go back to your fish and chips OH!brain_stew said:
brain_stew
Member
Sir Fragula said:
I started out completely disillusioned with this election race, terrified at the prospect of a Tory government and fed up with the broken two party politics. Its safe to say things have turned around a bit in the last week.
Its like witnessing a revolution before your eyes, I just hope it can be sustained and this isn't just a flash in the pan.
The more desperate the conservatives get, the bigger the chance that the carefully manipulated new public image they've tried to build will come undone and people will be able to see them for what they really are as they resort to campaigning on core "conservative principles". Clegg already got Cameron to show his true face once during that TV debate when he made that stupid China gaff after being pushed on Trident, I'm expecting/hoping for plenty more to follow.*
*Full disclosure: I completely detest the conservative party, Tory values and everything they stand for and unlike some I don't have a short memory.
brain_stew
Member
Mr. Sam said:
Sky News (and Sky News HD). The BBC get the final one.
brain_stew said:
Ok but don't call me a BNP voter.
What sort of constitutional reform or indeed voting reform would you like to see.
I would love to see in the House of Lords where they are life long peers which have an equal amount of conservative, labour and lib dem lords.
A voting system which means I can vote for a MP of party X but vote for the PM of party Y.
Mr. Sam said:
But don't most 'democracies' have an upper house of some kind. To check against the fact that lower house of the legislative branch of government is somethimes quick to act to public opinion without debate, and Lords provide the debate to check whether a policy dimishes human rights, or rather tries to.
I would love to see them gain some powers so that if law is to be passed and is rejected 3 times then there is a set amount of time before it can be voted on in the House of Commons to be passed to the Lords to vote on it.
brain_stew
Member
Linkified said:
The BNP comment wasn't necessary but I can only take so many Daily Mail headline grabbing posts before I crack, apologies.
As for voting and parliamentary reform, I personally think the whole system needs a major shake up. We do need a second house to keep the house of commons in check but the current house of lords is so far away from delivering that there's very little of the current system I'd like to see survive.
The FPTP system is clearly undemocratic. It angers me that my vote is essentially "worthless" and the government is decided by a very small proportion of the population. Full on proportional representation isn't necessarily the answer (as giving power to parties like the BNP iand UKIP s a rather scary thought, not that they don't necessarily differ too much from hardcore "true blues" but I digress) but there sure as hell is a better solution than the system we currently have.
As for Europe, any steps to wider integration with the EU both politically, economically and militarily is a positive move as far as I'm concerned. The idea of a "European superstate" is actually something I'm very much behind, not that its a particularly popular opinion in this country. The potential benefits are massive, take something like Trident for instance. Why the hell does every major EU state need a similar program? Are we going to declare nuclear war with each other anytime soon? Having one such program for the entire EU alone would save 100s of billions of pounds.
As we can see, the Labour and Conservative spin doctors are working together to tackle the LibDem "problem".
Labour: A vote for the LibDems is a vote for the Tories.
Cameron: A vote for the LibDems is a vote for Labour.
:lol
Is this seriously the best they can come up with? It's not only illogical fear mongering (a vote for LibDem is a vote for LibDem; nothing more and nothing less), but it also proves Clegg's point perfectly: both the old parties look exactly the same.
Labour: A vote for the LibDems is a vote for the Tories.
Cameron: A vote for the LibDems is a vote for Labour.
:lol
Is this seriously the best they can come up with? It's not only illogical fear mongering (a vote for LibDem is a vote for LibDem; nothing more and nothing less), but it also proves Clegg's point perfectly: both the old parties look exactly the same.
gutter_trash
Banned
that is the classic play-book attack used against a 3rd party that is threatening the two top partiesOmikaru said:
brain_stew said:
Apologies accepted, on the Trident point of each country having there own programs - isn't more a deep rooted feeling going back to the cold war and iron curtain situation so that if a country turns on another country those countries won't start a war as they both have nuclear deterrent.
brain_stew
Member
Linkified said:
I know all about the idea of mutually assumed destruction but honestly, war between two EU states is completely inconceivable now and especially in any future where European nations are tied together enough to be classed as a "European superstate". Our economy and welfare depends on cooperation with Europe and as long as it does there isn't ever going to be any sort of hint of war between two European nations. It'd effectively be the same as declaring war upon yourself. That's why, as I suggested, if such a deterrent is actually needed then it is only needed at the EU wide level, no need for every individual nation to set up their programme.
brain_stew said:
This is future story time - but what if in the future certain eastern european countries deceide to break away from a european superstate but form one with Russia, and as no one can predict what will happen in the future its mearly a counter to a counter.
Or lets assume we as a european superstate could effectivly be a 'civil war' between the involved countries. Therefore each country has a deteterent as the war never spills out into fighting on the ground but into debate.
brain_stew
Member
gutter_trash said:
In fairness, it has always been an effective tactic in this country, thanks in no small part to the way our FPTP system works. However, we've never once in the last 60 years (that I'm aware of) had the third place party scoring so high in the polls going into an election with momentum behind them. The "barrier" seems as if it may be broken now, the "wasted vote" propaganda was easy to swallow when the LDs were only ever pulling in <20% in opinion polls but now that they're in the 30%+ category people can no longer see it as a wasted vote and so a snowball effect begins to occur and that looks like what we've been seeing this week. Its fascinating to watching (or terrifying if you're a conservative voter) but we can't get ahead of ourselves.
Yup. What makes me laugh is that they're both stupid enough to use it.gutter_trash said:
Did they not have the foresight to think that perhaps, just maybe, the other party would use it too? Or did they then both think that the other party would have that very same thought, and as such, they'd be able to land the whole "A vote for LibDem is a vote for x" exclusively?
:lol
It's baffling. The fact that, probably, teams of hundreds of interns and spinners on both parties have been ploughing through the LibDem manifesto since Thursday (or earlier) and these smears are the best they can come up with speaks volumes.
Tory blogger Iain Dale traditionally calls LibDem policies "idiotic" without elaborating, and he's got away with it so far because he looks down on them with a certain air of superiority because they're the third party. Despite the poll surge, I've seen nothing but weasel words from him and the two parties.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. -Ghandi
I'm not getting any grand delusions that the Lib Dems will win, yet, but it seems appropriate, somehow.
One Tory blogger has thrown his toys out of the pram since his party of choice aren't guaranteed their turn in government.
The spin that Cameron is doing at his press conference right now reminds me of a disgruntled Gordon Brown at PMQs. He's changing the meaning of the question so that he can deliver an answer that's palletable.
And like Gordon, it's not washing.
I wish I could head into town now, Clegg is in my hometown (Cardiff) at the SU. Sadly, I have too many deadlines this week to spend out of home.
The spin that Cameron is doing at his press conference right now reminds me of a disgruntled Gordon Brown at PMQs. He's changing the meaning of the question so that he can deliver an answer that's palletable.
And like Gordon, it's not washing.
I wish I could head into town now, Clegg is in my hometown (Cardiff) at the SU. Sadly, I have too many deadlines this week to spend out of home.
Poll numbers
The best thing about it is that Clegg's rise is the only real political story at the moment. So each poll result creates more coverage for the Lib Dems which leads to more attention, starts to eliminate the lib dems = wasted vote mentality, and hopefully leads to even more support. Now if only it wasn't for that pesky ash cloud taking over headlines.
I find Dale rather insufferable, so his reaction is a welcomed side effect of the Lib Dem poll numbers.
The best thing about it is that Clegg's rise is the only real political story at the moment. So each poll result creates more coverage for the Lib Dems which leads to more attention, starts to eliminate the lib dems = wasted vote mentality, and hopefully leads to even more support. Now if only it wasn't for that pesky ash cloud taking over headlines.
Omikaru said:
I find Dale rather insufferable, so his reaction is a welcomed side effect of the Lib Dem poll numbers.
GhaleonQ
Member
As an American conservative, I know I should be horrified by any Liberal Democrat power gains even if the Tories do nothing for me, but this is going to be too hilarious and riveting to care. Question, though: what electoral "strategies" that haven't been used yet could significantly shift the current polls? Every party's get-out-the-vote system is equally strong, right, and there's no time for big policy shifts? Is everyone just waiting to see whether Clegg's bump is temporary and what that means for the Conservatives? I know campaign rules are different from ours, but not how.
Being from Spain, seeing these UK ellections is quite interesting. The rise of a third option party and the decline of the two monolithic "right" and "left" wing parties gives me hope that some day such a thing would happen in my country too. One can only hope, I guess. Godspeed, LibDems.
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