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UK PoliGAF: General election thread of LibCon Coalitionage
- Thread starter Chinner
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killer_clank
Member
Sage00 said:
BOOYAH!
After tonight, Labour have indeed had it.
scotcheggz
Member
SmokyDave said:
yeh, I liked it, nice to see the crowd not just accepting any old answer.
ComRes - Cameron won
Cameron: 35%
Clegg: 33%
Brown: 26%
YouGov - Cameron won
Cameron: 41%
Clegg: 32%
Brown: 25%
Populus - Cameron and Clegg both won
Cameron: 38%
Clegg: 38%
Brown: 25%
ICM - Cameron won
Cameron: 35%
Brown: 29%
Clegg: 27%
Angus Reid - Cameron won
Cameron: 36%
Clegg: 30%
Brown: 23%
And here is an average of all the results.
Cameron: 37%
Clegg: 32%
Brown: 25.6%
Cameron: 35%
Clegg: 33%
Brown: 26%
YouGov - Cameron won
Cameron: 41%
Clegg: 32%
Brown: 25%
Populus - Cameron and Clegg both won
Cameron: 38%
Clegg: 38%
Brown: 25%
ICM - Cameron won
Cameron: 35%
Brown: 29%
Clegg: 27%
Angus Reid - Cameron won
Cameron: 36%
Clegg: 30%
Brown: 23%
And here is an average of all the results.
Cameron: 37%
Clegg: 32%
Brown: 25.6%
Wes said:
I think that this debate changed nothing, everyone was watching the debate with a predetermined view and these results show that. Almost inline with current polling and probably similar to the result next Thursday (Labour probably will be a few points higher, the Tories probably (hopefully) a few points lower).
Sage00 said:
Wow. Tony Blair looks damn old in comparison with his 1997 days.
With this popular vote the predicted result would be:Wes said:
Electoral Calculus - Hung Parliament: Con 24 seats short of majority.
Con - 307
Lab - 195
Lib - 116
BBC Swingometer - Hung Parliament: Con 20 seats short of majority.
Con - 306
Lab - 209
Lib - 108
Tories are so close another percentage point swing away from Labour would hand them a majority.
Edit: At this level, the Tories could possibly gain a majority with the seats from the nationalist parties and independent candidates, without needing Lib Dem support.
got word that on one of the Asian channels on sky, a labour party candidate losing her shit. total meltdown. It's in English. on channel 814. It's happening right now
edit: It changes to a non english language: Bengali sometimes, but it then comes back to English.
When I mean Meltdown: She is shouting and raving her arms: saying she is going to SUE the guy sitting opposite her.
:lol :lol :lol :lol
edit: It changes to a non english language: Bengali sometimes, but it then comes back to English.
When I mean Meltdown: She is shouting and raving her arms: saying she is going to SUE the guy sitting opposite her.
:lol :lol :lol :lol
killer_clank
Member
I have an exam on the afternoon of the 7th, but I'm so staying up to watch the results.
Dabookerman
Member
So how did you guys find the debate.. I kinda stopped because of this Halo fiasco.
MarshMellow96
Member
Okay, okay, okay.
What do David Cameron and university exams have in common? Not answering the question and still getting 40%!
:lol
I crack myself up sometimes.
But in all seriousness - we're fucked...
What do David Cameron and university exams have in common? Not answering the question and still getting 40%!
:lol
I crack myself up sometimes.
But in all seriousness - we're fucked...
Hmmm, judging from the debate post-mortems on TV I think the narrative for the next week is going to be "Brown's fucked", last in all 3 debates, and seeing *that* photo a lot.
Any polls that show Labour dropping are going to be seized upon. Dead Man Walking type situation, made worse by wheeling out Blair. That's going to look as last throw of the dice.
I think Labour and Brown going negative is a big mistake, scare tactics don't work it just looks like you've run out of steam and have nothing to say. I think that's why no matter how Brown does in the debates the polls never reflect it, he's seen as tired as his time is up.
I think Lib Dems will rise a bit as a result.
So most likely now we're going to end up with Conservatives as largest party, and biggest vote share, but no overall majority. The way the Lib Dem vote effects things is a bit of a random variable, they are probably going to get more than expected but polls in the marginals show they look like doing more damage to Labour.
Brown as Prime Minister in that situation still has first say on putting together a coalition, so Cameron could still be kept out with the Lib Dems despite winning. However Tories getting most votes and most seats is a mandate in Clegg's own words. I really don't see a Tory/LibDem coalition happening though.
This is going to be one messy election, it's going to turn VERY nasty.
Any polls that show Labour dropping are going to be seized upon. Dead Man Walking type situation, made worse by wheeling out Blair. That's going to look as last throw of the dice.
I think Labour and Brown going negative is a big mistake, scare tactics don't work it just looks like you've run out of steam and have nothing to say. I think that's why no matter how Brown does in the debates the polls never reflect it, he's seen as tired as his time is up.
I think Lib Dems will rise a bit as a result.
So most likely now we're going to end up with Conservatives as largest party, and biggest vote share, but no overall majority. The way the Lib Dem vote effects things is a bit of a random variable, they are probably going to get more than expected but polls in the marginals show they look like doing more damage to Labour.
Brown as Prime Minister in that situation still has first say on putting together a coalition, so Cameron could still be kept out with the Lib Dems despite winning. However Tories getting most votes and most seats is a mandate in Clegg's own words. I really don't see a Tory/LibDem coalition happening though.
This is going to be one messy election, it's going to turn VERY nasty.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
Rubezh said:
Yeah, he no longer looks like Chris Barrie's stunt double.
Mr. Sam said:
That and being a world leader ages you at a remarkable rate.
jas0nuk said:Any body language experts/psychologists in the house?
WTF is this all about:
Looks like they had beans for dinner.
Gary Whitta
Member
So pretty much whichever way you slice it Labour is fucked right? What are the likely hung parliament scenarios?
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
Gary Whitta said:
It's going to be an interesting few weeks, that's all I'm going to say.
Gary Whitta said:
Labour need to ditch Brown. They might be able to get a coalition with the libs but that wont last more then a year and any chance of winning the next election will be gone and the results will be worse for Labour.
They should go with Alan Johnson but I know it will be the elder Chuckle brother who will be elected. Either way they stand a better chance of winning the election in a year or being in a much stronger coalition situation.
industrian
will gently cradle you as time slowly ticks away.
Kowak said:
IMO Labour need to get rid of everyone "tainted" by the current administration. Either that or they can claim to have changed for the better whilst bringing back William Hague and waaaaait a minute...
Whatever goes though, if Ed Balls wants a future career in politics he's going to have to change his fucking name. There's only so many "<incident> has Britain by the Balls" puns I could take.
Gary Whitta said:
It's going to be hung unless the Conservatives can pick up even more points during the week than they got in the polls tonight. AS for hung party scenarios, I shudder to try to calculate that.
xbhaskarx said:
I think the GAF consensus is that apart from Clegg winning the first debate the other two have come out pretty even really. My problem with Cameron in both the last two debates is that he would've done much better if he took control, which he didn't.
JonathanEx
Member
UGgggh. In the interview with our Labour PPC right now - she's defending voting for the DEBill. Apparently it's great if I start up a small band.
Shit!
Was filling out my postal vote and a tiny bit of the bottom of the 'X' I placed has overlapped into the Labour box. It's obvious where the 'X' is supposed to be but will that 2mm bleeding into Labour give me a spoiled ballot?
It would be fucking Labour trying to steal my vote by subverting my own left hand. Bastards.
Was filling out my postal vote and a tiny bit of the bottom of the 'X' I placed has overlapped into the Labour box. It's obvious where the 'X' is supposed to be but will that 2mm bleeding into Labour give me a spoiled ballot?
It would be fucking Labour trying to steal my vote by subverting my own left hand. Bastards.
:lol :lolMeadows said:
We didn't have a Christian party candidate in my constituency, we're all godless heathens. We did have a BNP candidate which surprised me. For what it's worth, I went yellow. Anything to stop a Tory majority (and get closer to legal weed).
I'm standing for the Christian Party next time round, I can fake religious belief.
radioheadrule83
Banned
The media trying to build narratives and steer this thing actually sickens me. I mean, jesus christ, let us make our own minds up...
my jaw actually dropped when the BBCs Emily Maitlis came out with this after the debate:
I'm sure I haven't got that quote 100% right, but thats the gist of what she said. I actually said out loud at my TV: WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT. Utter bollocks. She then tag-teamed with Michael Gove on Charles Kennedy, allowing Gove to interrupt him with petulant attempts at point scoring.
Fast forward to newsnight and they're sowing the same narrative a bit further: Brown is fucked, we're all bored of Clegg now. There was a definite feeling for me last night, that the BBC internally, decided the writing was on the wall, that it didn't like the other potential scenarios and that it was going to start talking up David Cameron. Clegg again had a strong performance for me, and I didn't read the confrontation over EU immigration between Clegg and Cameron the same way the BBC did at all.. they were saying Clegg looked uncomfortable and flustered, he didn't look uncomfortable, he was laughing at the desperate attempt of Cameron to paint the Lib Dem immigration policy as ill-concieved while simultaneously decieving people about his own policy in terms of what is and isn't actually possible. Both Brown and Clegg stuck it to him on that one. People earning £50,000+ probably shouldn't be getting child tax credits, and the idea of cutting income tax on the first £10k earned is an idea that should play well with voters as well. I have no idea why the BBC suddenly decided to try and downplay Clegg.
The erosion of the Labour vote is worrying me. If there's going to be a mass exodus of Labour voters, I pray they go to the party with liberalism at its heart, the only party thats making a whole heap of common sense on the explosive and expensive issues that people care about, and the electoral reform needed to empower the electorate FIRMLY on the agenda. That or I hope they bounce back... the spectre of 5 years of this fucking posh snake oil salesman and his friends is rearing its head with some seriousness now. 5 years of 'change' that will be nothing of the sort.
If they do get in, I hope Mervin King the governer of the bank of England is right... I hope their emergency budget turns being in power into a poison chalice, I hope the public hates them so much that they're kept out of power afterwards for another generation. I'm all for fiscal conservatism, but I think any of the three parties will offer that this time... I just disagree with the Tories on so many other things. I can't stomach the idea of working for them while they "roll up their sleeves" and make the plebs shoulder the burden of their 'austerity' measures, while giving capital gains relief and general tax relief to the top percentile of earners in this country; they MAY genuinely believe that such things will help get the country going immediately -- their entire ideology is built upon trickle down economics -- but think about it: relief to the banks, the financial sector and their employees - who are the whole reason we had to issue a trillion £ bailout? Dismantling of services that are helping companies get capital and support now? Liam Fox has been talking nonsense about Defence and the civil service for the best part of two years, they're not talking about cuts to schools and the NHS - but the very fact they're so willing to allow livery companies/guilds, faith organisations and charities step in to alter our childrens' curriculums indicates that they'd probably like to save spending public money on such things if they can. And why does this party think a vote on the Hunting Act (fox hunting ban) is important enough to feature in their manifesto?
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU NEEDS TO VOTE ON THURSDAY.
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU NEEDS TO CONVINCE EVERY SINGLE PERSON YOU KNOW TO DO THE SAME.
There are 6 days to fire people up
my jaw actually dropped when the BBCs Emily Maitlis came out with this after the debate:
Emily said:
I'm sure I haven't got that quote 100% right, but thats the gist of what she said. I actually said out loud at my TV: WHAT THE FUCK ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT. Utter bollocks. She then tag-teamed with Michael Gove on Charles Kennedy, allowing Gove to interrupt him with petulant attempts at point scoring.
Fast forward to newsnight and they're sowing the same narrative a bit further: Brown is fucked, we're all bored of Clegg now. There was a definite feeling for me last night, that the BBC internally, decided the writing was on the wall, that it didn't like the other potential scenarios and that it was going to start talking up David Cameron. Clegg again had a strong performance for me, and I didn't read the confrontation over EU immigration between Clegg and Cameron the same way the BBC did at all.. they were saying Clegg looked uncomfortable and flustered, he didn't look uncomfortable, he was laughing at the desperate attempt of Cameron to paint the Lib Dem immigration policy as ill-concieved while simultaneously decieving people about his own policy in terms of what is and isn't actually possible. Both Brown and Clegg stuck it to him on that one. People earning £50,000+ probably shouldn't be getting child tax credits, and the idea of cutting income tax on the first £10k earned is an idea that should play well with voters as well. I have no idea why the BBC suddenly decided to try and downplay Clegg.
The erosion of the Labour vote is worrying me. If there's going to be a mass exodus of Labour voters, I pray they go to the party with liberalism at its heart, the only party thats making a whole heap of common sense on the explosive and expensive issues that people care about, and the electoral reform needed to empower the electorate FIRMLY on the agenda. That or I hope they bounce back... the spectre of 5 years of this fucking posh snake oil salesman and his friends is rearing its head with some seriousness now. 5 years of 'change' that will be nothing of the sort.
If they do get in, I hope Mervin King the governer of the bank of England is right... I hope their emergency budget turns being in power into a poison chalice, I hope the public hates them so much that they're kept out of power afterwards for another generation. I'm all for fiscal conservatism, but I think any of the three parties will offer that this time... I just disagree with the Tories on so many other things. I can't stomach the idea of working for them while they "roll up their sleeves" and make the plebs shoulder the burden of their 'austerity' measures, while giving capital gains relief and general tax relief to the top percentile of earners in this country; they MAY genuinely believe that such things will help get the country going immediately -- their entire ideology is built upon trickle down economics -- but think about it: relief to the banks, the financial sector and their employees - who are the whole reason we had to issue a trillion £ bailout? Dismantling of services that are helping companies get capital and support now? Liam Fox has been talking nonsense about Defence and the civil service for the best part of two years, they're not talking about cuts to schools and the NHS - but the very fact they're so willing to allow livery companies/guilds, faith organisations and charities step in to alter our childrens' curriculums indicates that they'd probably like to save spending public money on such things if they can. And why does this party think a vote on the Hunting Act (fox hunting ban) is important enough to feature in their manifesto?
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU NEEDS TO VOTE ON THURSDAY.
EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU NEEDS TO CONVINCE EVERY SINGLE PERSON YOU KNOW TO DO THE SAME.
There are 6 days to fire people up
J Tourettes
Banned
At a guess, I'd say the reason why they have the foxhunt ban vote in their manifesto is that it's a good vote winner for a fair few people in the countryside.
Personally I couldn't give a shit if it's banned or not.
Personally I couldn't give a shit if it's banned or not.
J Tourettes
Banned
JonathanEx said:
Boo-urns!
Dark Machine
Member
Clegg is gonna be in Sheffield city centre today. I'm off down there to see him and hopefully shake hands. Maybe get to ask him a nice question about the EU or Immigration.
Edit: Also the Public are stupid. The fact that the Daily Mail and The S*n are the bestselling newspapers in this country are testament to that.
Edit: Also the Public are stupid. The fact that the Daily Mail and The S*n are the bestselling newspapers in this country are testament to that.
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