I think the weather has just damned them in Copeland (I doubt they'd have won anyway), but the Tories typically do better with postal voting. The weather is bad enough that turnout will be down and if there's one thing the Labour vote isn't at the moment it's enthusiastic
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UK PoliGAF |OT2| - We Blue Ourselves
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I think the weather has just damned them in Copeland (I doubt they'd have won anyway), but the Tories typically do better with postal voting. The weather is bad enough that turnout will be down and if there's one thing the Labour vote isn't at the moment it's enthusiastic
QuicheFontaine
Member
I'm hoping The Incredible Flying Brick wins in Stoke
I agree, I think he would win again now. All I'm saying is that if the PLP could do something competent they could have ousted him. A lot of people I know voted for Corbyn both times around (I only did first time), are now incredibly disappointed in him. Going beyond the European stuff. The problem is, I don't see who would succeed at leading Labour, except for maybe Dan Jarvis?
According to Business Insider, Sadiq Khan would be best placed to lead the Labour Party. And I see that - I haven't looked into his policies in detail, but from what I know I would consider voting for a Khan-led Labour
According to the guardian's recent update on their live blog for the byelections being held today in the UK it looks like the Tories have a a chance of winning copeland. The race is tight there now.It also looks very likely that the Labour party will win Stoke.
Link
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...b05f755cc0b92e#block-58aed800e4b05f755cc0b92e
Edit: It looks like the Labour Party will probably keep Copeland but probably by a slim margin.
Link
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...b05f755cc0b92e#block-58aed800e4b05f755cc0b92e
Edit: It looks like the Labour Party will probably keep Copeland but probably by a slim margin.
Huw_Dawson
Member
As I said in the Off-Topic thread, I'm not expecting amazing things from the Lib Dems in either seat (especially with the wind, rain and postal votes) but I'm gonna say we hold our deposits.
Not strong areas for Lib Dems here. These would be useful for data, but the weather has pretty much ruined any hope of analysing the result.
Guardian have my lot - who know this area well enough given our leader rep's Kendal - calling Copeland for the Tories. I think that's it for Labour there.
Stoke is going to be a bit random of a result.
Not strong areas for Lib Dems here. These would be useful for data, but the weather has pretty much ruined any hope of analysing the result.
Guardian have my lot - who know this area well enough given our leader rep's Kendal - calling Copeland for the Tories. I think that's it for Labour there.
Stoke is going to be a bit random of a result.
Why do you think labour keeps Copeland? Seems to be indicating the tories are winning it...
It looks like the tories won copeland by like 7% which is a pretty good result for them.
JonathanEx
Member
The real fight for Copeland starts now.
CyclopsRock
Member
Laughed out loud at that. Excellent.
Jezbollah
Member
That's pretty much the positive to take. Fuck UKIP
Jezbollah
Member
Sir Gerald Kaufman, Labour MP for Manchster Gorton and Father of the House of Commons has died aged 86.
This will trigger a By-Election in the Constituency. Kaufman had a majority of 24,079 to Green candidate Laura Bannister in the 2015 Election.
This will trigger a By-Election in the Constituency. Kaufman had a majority of 24,079 to Green candidate Laura Bannister in the 2015 Election.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Sucks to hear about Kaufman. 
This will be a very interesting seat for Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems. Will the Greens be able to reverse their declines at the expense of the LDs to hold their vote share? How badly are Labour going to get punished here by Remainers?
For the Lib Dems this should be a fun one, as they got 32 or 33% in 2010, when they were up against a Labour grandee.
It's a certain Labour hold though I'd say.
But then again, 24k majorities have been overturned before this parliament.
This will be a very interesting seat for Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems. Will the Greens be able to reverse their declines at the expense of the LDs to hold their vote share? How badly are Labour going to get punished here by Remainers?
For the Lib Dems this should be a fun one, as they got 32 or 33% in 2010, when they were up against a Labour grandee.
It's a certain Labour hold though I'd say.
But then again, 24k majorities have been overturned before this parliament.
CyclopsRock
Member
I imagine most of Tory HQ is manically detaching Google Maps this morning.
Anyone know who the new Father of the House is? And has it ever been a woman? Mother of the House, I guess?
Anyone know who the new Father of the House is? And has it ever been a woman? Mother of the House, I guess?
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
It is dear old cuddly Ken Clarke
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But then again, 24k majorities have been overturned before this parliament.
No chance of the Tories over turning a 24k majority, but the scary figure for Labour will be the swing against them.
If Labour see that majority slashed to around 5-10k it will tell them all they need to know about what's coming in 2020.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Gorton is not an area that would ever consider voting Tory. The conservatives in the area are your Labour-voting sort.
This will be a fight between Labour and either the Greens or the Lib Dems. At this point I could not call which one...
QuicheFontaine
Member
Oh come off it. The Lib Dems got 4% less than two years ago. Comfortable Labour hold.
Yes, but that was the collapse of the lib dem vote due to the coalition - in previous elections they were the second place party by a long way. The question is whether they can get back to where they used to be, or if labour voters will continue to punish them for their time in government.
No-one is suggesting labour loses this seat - it ain't happening, full stop. But there's a lot of stories to be told, and analysis done, on how much they win by, who comes second etc etc,.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
It's one of those that will depend very much on which candidates are put up.
It isn't a natural 24,000 majority by any means - majorities, over the LibDems, were 6,000 in 2005 and 7,000 in 2010. So don't read too much "Labour Collapse" into a halved majority. What'll be most interesting is who picks up the running and comes second, and why.
But the only way I can see Labour losing it is if they put up a really toxic candidate, and even Labour isn't that stupid.
It isn't a natural 24,000 majority by any means - majorities, over the LibDems, were 6,000 in 2005 and 7,000 in 2010. So don't read too much "Labour Collapse" into a halved majority. What'll be most interesting is who picks up the running and comes second, and why.
But the only way I can see Labour losing it is if they put up a really toxic candidate, and even Labour isn't that stupid.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Terrible news about Sir Kaufman. A genuine intellect and formidable politician, even if not someone I would always agree with. Always sad when we lose someone of that stature.
i could see the Lib Dems probably getting around 15%-25% of the vote in the byelection but I don't think they will get over 30% of the vote like they did in multiple elections in the past in that constituency. Whoever the labour candidate is probably going to win that byelection by 40%-60%
killer_clank
Member
I'd imagine the Greens and the Lib Dems will both be running relatively big campaigns - not expecting to win obvs but they'll probably do about similarly well going after the "annoyed with Labour over Brexit vote".
Labour hold with hugely reduced minority though.
Though now that I think about it a lot of the places where the Lib Dems have been doing well recently are Tory remain constituencies so perhaps they're not doing anywhere near as well amongst the Labour crowd still annoyed at the Coalition and the greens will come 2nd again.
Labour hold with hugely reduced minority though.
Though now that I think about it a lot of the places where the Lib Dems have been doing well recently are Tory remain constituencies so perhaps they're not doing anywhere near as well amongst the Labour crowd still annoyed at the Coalition and the greens will come 2nd again.
Roberto Larcos
Member
CyclopsRock
Member
I don't think his goal is to win, it's to torpedo Carswell. It's incredible how much they hate him, considering he is their only MP. Given the direction the Tories are taking with Brexit, it's not unfathomable that Carswell quits UKIP, "comes home" to the Tories victorious, creams Banks at the next election and Ukip simultaneously end up with egg on their face whilst losing their only MP. Delicious. Carswell has never been "proper" Ukip anyway, he just had an issue that he cared about more than any other and went with the party that best respresented that. That's not relevant anymore so I don't know why he would stick with them other than because the Tories don't want him back.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
The Northern Irish assembly results:
http://www.bbc.com/news/election/ni2017/results
Ummm, direct rule could be necessary now?
http://www.bbc.com/news/election/ni2017/results
Ummm, direct rule could be necessary now?
Definitely a possibility. DUP need to reflect as it was a poor night for them. If they want devolution to work Arlene has to show some pragmatism and, temporarily at least, step aside.
CyclopsRock
Member
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi...=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter
Such a twat. Though I saw one tweet that pointed out that possibly he's paid on a performance based system and, as a result, is owed absolutely nothing.
Such a twat. Though I saw one tweet that pointed out that possibly he's paid on a performance based system and, as a result, is owed absolutely nothing.
TiredofWinning
Member
I have no idea how Good Friday is going to survive Brexit.
That's what everyone here in Ireland have been saying since the brexit result.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Ok so I just heard a clarification on Radio 4 that apparently the documents do show the amount he's entitled to as Leader of the Opposition, but under his pension rather than salary, and it's only half the amount because he became leader in September 2015, i.e. half way through the tax year. Seems to make sense.
Chuka Umunna has written a quite lengthy article for the New Statesmen, titled 'The Labour Alternative.'
Oh boy!
http://www.pollingdigest.com/home/2017/3/6/into-the-wilderness-and-beyond
Personal highlights:
http://www.pollingdigest.com/home/2017/3/6/into-the-wilderness-and-beyond
Personal highlights:
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Those Labour members are fucking imbeciles, there is no other way of looking at it.
I know a lot of people who have left the party because of Corbyn though. (A lot who joined because of him as well.)
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm not sure that's really cognitive dissonance. If you think Corbyn was an overall positive factor but in Copeland there were a lot of countervailing negative factors, you could say perfectly consistently Corbyn was responsible for the win in Stoke but not responsible for the loss in Copeland. If anything, saying he was responsible for both outcomes is the weirder response - unless he's locally popular in Stoke but locally hated in Copeland.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
There's no nuclear power plant in Stoke.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Fair. You get my drift though - it's not really the 'gotcha' some are trying to make it out to be.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Yes, I get you.
Thing is, I suspect Labour just isn't interesting enough. There's nothing to grab hold of. There's an article on labourlist today about how labour is the 'natural party of small business', well that's what the headline says but none of the content does.
Thing is, I suspect Labour just isn't interesting enough. There's nothing to grab hold of. There's an article on labourlist today about how labour is the 'natural party of small business', well that's what the headline says but none of the content does.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I mean, that's UK politics in a nutshell right now. Deathly dull. There's this gross air of inevitability to everything that just saps all the will to participate straight from you, with nary an intellectual regenesis to be seen.
oops. looks like i over-estimated the expertise of journalists in my rush to slam corbyn and validate my own opinion of him.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39175570
my bad
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Oh I don't know about that. There's a whole lot of interesting stuff behind the scenes in the Conservative Party, and the LibDems, and UKIP, and the SNP, and the NI parties, and with the dear old House of Lords. Everywhere except Labour really.
Budget on Wednesday might be have some entertaining moments too.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yup, lots of fun stuff going on in the Lib Dems.
We're going to be attempting to engineer a 31% swing in Manchester Gorton. THAT should be fun to follow.
We're going to be attempting to engineer a 31% swing in Manchester Gorton. THAT should be fun to follow.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
It will be. What do we know about Jackie Pearcey? Looks likes she's a pre-Clegg LibDem so maybe relatively tarnish-free? Decent local presence?
CyclopsRock
Member
oops. looks like i over-estimated the expertise of journalists in my rush to slam corbyn and validate my own opinion of him.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39175570
my bad
Well they were asking the Labour Spokesperson questions, who just shrugged and said "dunno, looks weird, we'll look into it on Monday" so they kinda left a vacuum - I mean, it *is* weird to count your salary as leader of the opposition as a benefit, even if HMRC consider it like that (though given he's literally the only person in the country to receive that pay, I guess it's always gonna be pretty exceptional).
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