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UK PoliGAF |OT2| - We Blue Ourselves

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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
How on earth does electing Corbyn meaningfully move Labour to the left when he would get destroyed in 2020, the press would write about the second longest suicide note in history, and Labour would inevitably move to a candidate probably *more* to the right of what is necessary to win by 2025 just to be on the safe side? You're literally about to repeat Kinnock -> Blair. You don't move the conversation to the left just by throwing out a left-wing candidate, because you haven't changed any of the people or institutions that set the terms of the debate. Instead, you just get publicly ridiculed and your leverage even further reduced.
 
How on earth does electing Corbyn meaningfully move Labour to the left when he would get destroyed in 2020, the press would write about the second longest suicide note in history, and Labour would inevitably move to a candidate probably *more* to the right of what is necessary to win by 2025 just to be on the safe side? You're literally about to repeat Kinnock -> Blair. You don't move the conversation to the left just by throwing out a left-wing candidate, because you haven't changed any of the people or institutions that set the terms of the debate. Instead, you just get publicly ridiculed and your leverage even further reduced.

Because then we'll get an SDP split after Blair v2 comes along, and finally the people's party will storm parliament with Owen Jones at the head of the vanguard - of the people, for the people.
 

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
BBC

You can add former Prime Minister Edward Heath to the list of people being investigated over claims of historical sexual abuse.
 
savile-heath-500x333.jpg
 

tomtom94

Member
To be more specific, they're not investigating him being linked to child abuse, they're investigating whether the Met dropped an investigation into him during the 1990s.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Because then we'll get an SDP split after Blair v2 comes along, and finally the people's party will storm parliament with Owen Jones at the head of the vanguard - of the people, for the people.

Honestly, I don't think the SDP split is the best comparison - I can't see any Blairites genuinely jumping ship, I think most of them would be slaughtered at the polls. Really, I feel like Labour electing Corbyn would be most analogous to the Conservatives opting for Iain Duncan Smith - everyone will stay together, bicker til the end of time, and then feel that the inevitable election loss proved their specific side to be right rather than the other, regardless of which side they were actually on.
 
Honestly, I don't think the SDP split is the best comparison - I can't see any Blairites genuinely jumping ship, I think most of them would be slaughtered at the polls. Really, I feel like Labour electing Corbyn would be most analogous to the Conservatives opting for Iain Duncan Smith - everyone will stay together, bicker til the end of time, and then feel that the inevitable election loss proved their specific side to be right rather than the other, regardless of which side they were actually on.

Aaaah, but the Tories have that back-stabby streak and IDS never actually fought an election, let's remember. Corbyn would.

(And I meant the vanguard splits off, leaving the Labour party with just the sane people).
 

Uzzy

Member
So how does a centrist Labour party differentiate itself from a centrist Tory party? The Tories have raised the minimum wage, protected NHS spending and brought in gay marriage. Are Labour going to dare to oppose austerity, and open themselves up to the same kind of attacks that Miliband faced over the economy?
 

Jackpot

Banned
A quote that says it all really:

“The point of the conversation was to show how difficult it was for a minimum wage worker to get on in life,” Graf writes. “There was only one problem. No one had been able to locate a minimum wage worker for Ed to talk with.

“I felt this awful feeling in the pit of my stomach. How could it be that the Labour party, supposedly the party of working people, was not in relationship with a single minimum wage worker? It was stunning!”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-wage-out-of-touch-arnie-graf-labour-election
 

pulsemyne

Member
There have been rumours about him for years and years. Not that that is evidence of anything, mind.

Yeah rumours about him were around 20 years ago. Along with rumours about Saville.
Personally I'd love to see the Tories dirt book they kept on MP's during the 70's/80's. Don't think that would ever make an appearance though.
 

Mindwipe

Member
So how does a centrist Labour party differentiate itself from a centrist Tory party? The Tories have raised the minimum wage, protected NHS spending and brought in gay marriage. Are Labour going to dare to oppose austerity, and open themselves up to the same kind of attacks that Miliband faced over the economy?

Social authoritarianism (or lack thereof?). Labour has done a pretty bad job on surveillance, sexual moralism, drugs policy etc. If they 180ed on those I think there's a platform there. But they are very unlikely to do so, their entire shadow cabinet is entrenched in it.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
So how does a centrist Labour party differentiate itself from a centrist Tory party? The Tories have raised the minimum wage, protected NHS spending and brought in gay marriage. Are Labour going to dare to oppose austerity, and open themselves up to the same kind of attacks that Miliband faced over the economy?

Honestly, the time for opposing austerity is largely over. The UK economy is in a relatively good position. Our yearly growth rate is 2.6%, employment is growing. Inflation is still below target, but that's more a matter for monetary policy rather than fiscal. The fiscal aim of essentially any government right now should be to get current spending (i.e., excluding capital investment) down below 2.6% (it's currently on 5.7%) so our debt to GDP ratio can return to normal. Opposing austerity was something for the 2010 election, not the 2015 and almost certainly even less the 2020 one.

What needs to be talked about now is what our growth looks like - because frankly, it's mostly concentrated in a few specific industries and classes. The lower and middle classes have seen stagnating real wages for a long time now, and it should be Labour's duty to do something about that. It has the added benefit of addressing economic competency issues - Labour needs to be the party of good growth. That's something that can win elections, because I think it's just painfully obvious to most middle class people, who form the majority of swing voters, that they haven't really seen their standard of living improve in quite some time, and it also cleaves to the core Labour values of progressivism because by making sure growth goes from the bottom up rather than vice versa, you help the poorest.

I think there's a number of ways to approach that, ranging from education reforms to improving the school-to-work transition with things like guaranteed employment schemes. Big infrastructure plans need to be undertaken, particularly house-building, to help people get onto the property ladder, and at the same time serious steps towards reforming the private rented sector so that people can make stable plans about their jobs and where they're going in life. Reforming the JSA so that unemployed people can actually make long-term plans about job-finding or further education rather than being stuck in a bureaucratic administrative system. Open pay policies to help discrimination, both well-known ones (against women and minorities), and more subtle ones like class discrimination, because diversity helps economic growth. Closing down serious tax loopholes, like non-dom rules, and shifting where the tax-burden lies so that the very wealthiest inviduals and largest corporations actually meet that burden while smaller businesses can thrive under lower tax rates. Cracking down on uncompetitive markets like the energy markets and the rail system that stifle growing businesses by charging monopolistic prices. Introducing things like state child investment bonds so that all kids can have some basic form of capital when they reach full age.

I mean, there's a huge amount of things Labour can do without going full Corbyn that can a) win elections, b) do a huge amount of good, and c) the Conservatives will never do. They're more subtle, and I guess less exciting for it, but they're there, and they're important. I actually think Ed Miliband understood quite a lot of the above; I think he was serially underrated as a leader (particularly considering what the party looks like now - he was holding all that together behind the scenes). The trouble was that he was shit at messaging and also made a massive enemy of almost all the national media very early on. We don't need a Corbyn, we need a sexy Ed Miliband.
 

Moosichu

Member
Honestly, the time for opposing austerity is largely over. The UK economy is in a relatively good position. Our yearly growth rate is 2.6%, employment is growing. Inflation is still below target, but that's more a matter for monetary policy rather than fiscal. The fiscal aim of essentially any government right now should be to get current spending (i.e., excluding capital investment) down below 2.6% (it's currently on 5.7%) so our debt to GDP ratio can return to normal. Opposing austerity was something for the 2010 election, not the 2015 and almost certainly even less the 2020 one.

What needs to be talked about now is what our growth looks like - because frankly, it's mostly concentrated in a few specific industries and classes. The lower and middle classes have seen stagnating real wages for a long time now, and it should be Labour's duty to do something about that. It has the added benefit of addressing economic competency issues - Labour needs to be the party of good growth. That's something that can win elections, because I think it's just painfully obvious to most middle class people, who form the majority of swing voters, that they haven't really seen their standard of living improve in quite some time, and it also cleaves to the core Labour values of progressivism because by making sure growth goes from the bottom up rather than vice versa, you help the poorest.

I think there's a number of ways to approach that, ranging from education reforms to improving the school-to-work transition with things like guaranteed employment schemes. Big infrastructure plans need to be undertaken, particularly house-building, to help people get onto the property ladder, and at the same time serious steps towards reforming the private rented sector so that people can make stable plans about their jobs and where they're going in life. Reforming the JSA so that unemployed people can actually make long-term plans about job-finding or further education rather than being stuck in a bureaucratic administrative system. Open pay policies to help discrimination, both well-known ones (against women and minorities), and more subtle ones like class discrimination, because diversity helps economic growth. Closing down serious tax loopholes, like non-dom rules, and shifting where the tax-burden lies so that the very wealthiest inviduals and largest corporations actually meet that burden while smaller businesses can thrive under lower tax rates. Cracking down on uncompetitive markets like the energy markets and the rail system that stifle growing businesses by charging monopolistic prices. Introducing things like state child investment bonds so that all kids can have some basic form of capital when they reach full age.

I mean, there's a huge amount of things Labour can do without going full Corbyn that can a) win elections, b) do a huge amount of good, and c) the Conservatives will never do. They're more subtle, and I guess less exciting for it, but they're there, and they're important. I actually think Ed Miliband understood quite a lot of the above; I think he was serially underrated as a leader (particularly considering what the party looks like now - he was holding all that together behind the scenes). The trouble was that he was shit at messaging and also made a massive enemy of almost all the national media very early on. We don't need a Corbyn, we need a sexy Ed Miliband.

To be fair though. That is the result of Austerity. The school I went to a couple of years ago is already so.different due to slashed budgets and a lack of funding.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
To be fair though. That is the result of Austerity. The school I went to a couple of years ago is already so.different due to slashed budgets and a lack of funding.

Sure. I think we can agree that austerity *over the last five years* had massively damaging effects without having to commit ourself to expansionary fiscal policy *now*. That's shutting the gate long after the horses have bolted.
 
I think in theory a house building programme could be very appealing but would anyone trust a government that said they were going to do it? In the 2010 election, literally every party had a manifesto pledge to build houses - and all of them had said at events and in interviews that it'd be over 200,000 a year. All of them made this pledge (or a higher number) and two of them got elected. I just don't believe that any of them would/could do it.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I think in theory a house building programme could be very appealing but would anyone trust a government that said they were going to do it? In the 2010 election, literally every party had a manifesto pledge to build houses - and all of them had said at events and in interviews that it'd be over 200,000 a year. All of them made this pledge (or a higher number) and two of them got elected. I just don't believe that any of them would/could do it.

I think the Conservatives back off because they very rapidly realised that for the housing to be actually be useful, it would have to go near other housing, and people who already have houses don't like more houses being put round their houses. Let's face it, the Conservatives have always had a strong hold on the NIMBY vote, and that does compromise their ability to carry out certain policies. I mean, you can see where the Conservatives started with relatively good intentions - in 2010 with the National Planning Policy Framework - but that all fell apart very quickly.

In contrast, Labour has actually had a pretty good record on house-building, with at least 200,000 a year built in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007; which was the highest since the 1980s and the gradual reduction in house-building by the state (thanks Thatcher...).
 
So do you think there will be another election within the next 12 months? Also what's this about the Government giving £3m to some sleazy Childcare place against all advice?!
 

Jezbollah

Member
So do you think there will be another election within the next 12 months? Also what's this about the Government giving £3m to some sleazy Childcare place against all advice?!

The only way there might have been another election soon after the last one would have been in the scenario of a minority government. The Tories won a majority.

As per the fixed term parliament act the next election will be in May 2020 (hence the OP).
 
The only way there might have been another election soon after the last one would have been in the scenario of a minority government. The Tories won a majority.

As per the fixed term parliament act the next election will be in May 2020 (hence the OP).

The only scenario I could see were if the Tories were to bleed in too many by-elections - I can imagine some mad scenario where the outers lose the EU referendum and some decide to commit sepeku/defect to help UKIP get in in seats where "Leave!" turnout was particularly high in the ref. But even that's a very outside possibility imo.
 

tomtom94

Member
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33787201

Was the Kids Company thing only brought up so that someone could stick the boot into Cameron? It's starting to seem that way. I have to say complaining about a charity using a government grant to pay their staff is petty at best, regardless of the other issues at play (like the fact it seems it's being angled to be shut down anyway)
 

Saiyar

Unconfirmed Member
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33787201

Was the Kids Company thing only brought up so that someone could stick the boot into Cameron? It's starting to seem that way. I have to say complaining about a charity using a government grant to pay their staff is petty at best, regardless of the other issues at play (like the fact it seems it's being angled to be shut down anyway)

It has been brought up because the government decided to go against advice and give £3 million to a charity that is being investigated over alleged child abuse.
 

Maledict

Member
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-33787201

Was the Kids Company thing only brought up so that someone could stick the boot into Cameron? It's starting to seem that way. I have to say complaining about a charity using a government grant to pay their staff is petty at best, regardless of the other issues at play (like the fact it seems it's being angled to be shut down anyway)

If the grant conditions specified it couldn't be used to cover staffing costs then it absolutely is a big thing. Given that the grant was given against the advice of officers in the first place, this looks like a mess for the politicians and officers want to ensure its on record they wee against it in the first place...
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Just to hammer home the "what about the non-voters" argument, there's a nice discussion of them here: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/10/22/labours-lost-votes/

They're not, by and large, left-wing. They're somewhat to the right of the average Labour member, who is somewhat to the right of the average Labour activist. Key quote:

YouGov’s data explains England’s evolving political geography: a large number of normal, moderate, not very political, Sun and Mail-reading, middle income, non-union voters liked Labour in 1997 and had been turned off by 2010.

About four in five of every voter Labour lost (who didn't die) between '97 and '10 was a Daily Mail or Sun reader.
 
Just to hammer home the "what about the non-voters" argument, there's a nice discussion of them here: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2012/10/22/labours-lost-votes/

They're not, by and large, left-wing. They're somewhat to the right of the average Labour member, who is somewhat to the right of the average Labour activist. Key quote:



About four in five of every voter Labour lost (who didn't die) between '97 and '10 was a Daily Mail or Sun reader.

That's not primarily talking about non-voters though? That's about those who abandoned Labour, only 20% of them went on to not vote. It doesn't cover people who were only eligible to vote after 1997 - the population's increased by 6 million since then, but we still had less people voting this year than back then. Which is insane.

Also the fact that leaving the EU is seen as right wing now because it's primarily "boooo, immigrants" when it was historically a left wing stance amuses me

EDIT: Bollocks, I spent too long looking up numbers for that post and forgot that I should probably get a train and go home.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
That's not primarily talking about non-voters though? That's about those who abandoned Labour, only 20% of them went on to not vote. It doesn't cover people who were only eligible to vote after 1997 - the population's increased by 6 million since then, but we still had less people voting this year than back then. Which is insane.

So, it does cover non-voters, but only those non-voters who have voted in the past (and voted for Labour when they did so). You're right that there are non-voters who've *never* voted before that this doesn't discuss, but... when your victory strategy relies on a group of people who have never done something before doing it now, it doesn't seem like a game-winning strategy.

http://survation.com/apathy-in-the-uk-understanding-the-attitudes-of-non-voters/

Here's one that focuses on non-voters specifically. Very few of the reasons they did not vote are things Corbyn can address. If they live in a safe seat, their vote doesn't count regardless of what Corbyn does. If they're not interested in politics, Corbyn is like the anti-candidate - most of his followers are hyperpolitical compared to the average. Corbyn doesn't have any control over how much information people get, and if anything he damages that because the media will never give him a showing.

The two he might affect are "All parties/candidates are the same", and "What I believe in isn't represented by any parties/candidates". The trouble is, the first one he won't necessarily have a positive effect on - it's just as plausible that the appearance of a very different candidate will motivate those who *dislike* that candidate to vote as much as those who *like* that candidate. Indeed, there's pretty clear evidence of that in the past - 1992 election is a prime one.

Now, Corbyn does win on the second one - he does represent something no party and few candidates currently represent. However, that splits both ways. Not all of those people want a leftwing candidate. A fairly large proportion are "chuck the immigrants out" types who abhorr Corbyn as a prospect. Assuming about half that group is right and half is left - which seems plausible, because non-voters, ideologically, aren't particularly distinct from voters - and that Corbyn can motivate *every single one* of the not-voting-because-no-leftist-parties left candidates to vote - again, wildly implausible because lots of them will be lying because people don't like to admit they just couldn't be bothered to vote to a pollster - then he'd win about 9% of non-voters, which still isn't enough for Labour to beat the Conservatives if they perform as they did in 2015.

Honestly, if you're thinking Corbyn will unlock some spring of previously untapped lefty voters, you're trapped in a bubble. NeoGAF represents a liberal bubble in and of itself, and most of your friend are probably of similar political beliefs to you because it's pretty hard to be friends with someone you disagree on basic moral issues with. Social media is also skewed very liberal-left because of the age demographic. We're also politics nerds, we are keenly interested to the point we type up posts like this one in our spare time for our own pleasure, for goodness sake. We are not normal people and by and large the people we know are not normal people. When you actually listen to what most normal people are saying, they do not want Corbyn.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Well. I didn't think I would do it, but I have signed up as a registered supporter of Labour in order to vote for Corbyn as leader.

(I was perfectly honest in my application: I told them I voted Conservative last time out, that I believed the country needs a viable progressive set of policies in opposition, that for future government Corbyn-as-he-is-now probably isn't it but that he probably is the best starting point.)

Now I gotta compose an email to Corbyn to tell him what I think. And regardless of the response or lack of one I'll vote for him for Leader (should they allow me to).

This should all be very interesting.
 
it's just as plausible that the appearance of a very different candidate will motivate those who *dislike* that candidate to vote as much as those who *like* that candidate..

I remember reading something about how consumer products aren't always the best things to sponsor football teams with (think Coors on every Chelsea kit in the 90s) because whilst it may, possibly, engender some sympathy for the brand with Chelsea supporters, it means that QPR, Milwall, Brentford, Palace, Arsenal, West Ham, Spurs, Wimbledon (RIP) etc fans are more likely to be turned off it.
 
I remember reading something about how consumer products aren't always the best things to sponsor football teams with (think Coors on every Chelsea kit in the 90s) because whilst it may, possibly, engender some sympathy for the brand with Chelsea supporters, it means that QPR, Milwall, Brentford, Palace, Arsenal, West Ham, Spurs, Wimbledon (RIP) etc fans are more likely to be turned off it.

So... we'd have less unemployed people if Pompey FC weren't sponsored by Jobsite?
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I'd like to take a moment to bless her Majesty and our lord and saviour Blair for the fact that the United States' Republican primary debate is something that could never happen in this fair and pleasant land. May we forever be free of our Carsons and forgive those who would Trump against us, amen.
 

Uzzy

Member
I'd like to take a moment to bless her Majesty and our lord and saviour Blair for the fact that the United States' Republican primary debate is something that could never happen in this fair and pleasant land. May we forever be free of our Carsons and forgive those who would Trump against us, amen.

Richard Branson for PM!

Also thanks for your thoughts on what Labour could do that's different to what the Tories can do. Hopefully we'll see one of the candidates adopt some, I was pretty glad to hear Burnham tall about nationalising the railways again.
 
I'd like to take a moment to bless her Majesty and our lord and saviour Blair for the fact that the United States' Republican primary debate is something that could never happen in this fair and pleasant land. May we forever be free of our Carsons and forgive those who would Trump against us, amen.
I'd like to propose that Trump will have a similar effect to Farage at a general election. People will call him/his people out for all the horrible things, but his poll ratings will rise as he'll be seen as an outsider and people don't like being told they're not allowed to like someone. He'll then cause months of distraction before coming to nothing in electoral terms.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I don't think Corbyn's going to get anywhere equivocating like this:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02z3x45

I was really hoping he was going to tone down some of his more controversial views, but it looks like not.

I'm disappointed. Not that he refused to condemn the what the IRA did but that he so evaded the question, to which there is a perfectly good answer (along the lines of: I'm a politician, not a God - it isn't my business to go around condemning people, not that it would make any difference to anything other than newspaper headlines. So yes, I refuse to condemn it, and I'll refuse to condemn anything else too.)

He really should have thought this one through beforehand. Poor performance.

That said, I don't necessarily think any better of somebody else merely because they have the words "I condemn" on their lips every time a journalist asks.
 

f0rk

Member
I'd like to propose that Trump will have a similar effect to Farage at a general election. People will call him/his people out for all the horrible things, but his poll ratings will rise as he'll be seen as an outsider and people don't like being told they're not allowed to like someone. He'll then cause months of distraction before coming to nothing in electoral terms.
American politics isn't used to more than two parties though is it? If Trump runs as an independent his vote share will completely disrupt the result as it's normally around 51/49. Although you might be right as the electoral college probably makes it irrelevant in the same way as our system does
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Latest YouGov poll of Labour members:

Corbyn 53% Burnham 21% Cooper 18% Kendall 8%

Corbyn wins in the first round, no eliminations needed.

top kek

gender gap is:

Women: 61% Corbyn
Men: 48% Corbyn

That Corbyn sex appeal.
 

Uzzy

Member
Pretty indicative of how poorly the other three have run their campaigns. I've not a single clue what a Kendall or Cooper led Labour party would really stand for, other than 'Tories but a bit nicer maybe.' Burnham's at least got some policies I can identify and a manifesto put together, so that's an improvement, but Corbyn's got a real clear vision that actually excites people.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
At this rate, Burnham will come third as Kendall's preferences appear to transfer heavily in favour of Cooper. That just means the end result will be very lop-sided, though, as Burnham's break to Corbyn more than Cooper. It's all academic anyway if Corbyn gets the 50% straight away, though.
 
Maybe I'm reaching here but there's a comparison to be made between Corbyn and Trump.

Both are looking to head the political opposition, both are seen as "extremist" outsiders who have capitalized on the media and establisment's disdain, focusing their support.
 
Maybe I'm reaching here but there's a comparison to be made between Corbyn and Donald "Why doesn't he show his birth certificate" Trump.

Both are looking to head the political opposition, both are seen as "extremist" outsiders who have capitalized on the media and establisment's disdain, focusing their support.

Same could be said for Bernie.

So when is the Labour vote?
 
Same could be said for Bernie.

So when is the Labour vote?

Trump and Corbyn do have some fairly extremist views, but I've seen nothing but sense from Sanders so far.

Though I agree that the perception is there, which is weird as his views are only fairly left of centre. Guess it just goes to show how far right the centre has skewed in the states.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Maybe I'm reaching here but there's a comparison to be made between Corbyn and Trump.

Both are looking to head the political opposition, both are seen as "extremist" outsiders who have capitalized on the media and establisment's disdain, focusing their support.

I don't think that's a fair comparison. Regardless of what else you think of him, Corbyn has spent a lifetime genuinely considering his political stances, and believes firmly in them. I'm fairly sure Trump makes stuff up as he goes along. Corbyn is more comparable to Sanders.
 
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