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UK PoliGAF |OT2| - We Blue Ourselves

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Jezbollah

Member
I know you're just stating the facts of the situation, but the very idea that 'using them up' is a consideration in whether to kill people is pretty sickening. I'm sure the government would deny it of course.

It depends if those you're targeting are legitimate military targets....
 

kmag

Member
I know you're just stating the facts of the situation, but the very idea that 'using them up' is a consideration in whether to kill people is pretty sickening. I'm sure the government would deny it of course.

It's almost certainly not an actual consideration. If anything the limited number of Tornado navigators and the state of the Tornado airframes would be more to the forefront of the Government minds.

Operationally the RAF is in a bit of a state at the moment.

The Typhoon's have very limited ground attack capabilities, just Paveway bombs, with Brimstone not available yet (capability still in testing), so this makes them worse than useless.

The Tornado's are largely falling apart (in June one of them 'dropped' two Brimstones on the tarmac upon landing in Cyprus), and their low attack profile makes them pretty ropey to use now that advanced Russian anti-air is in play in Syria. Put it this way, in 1992 Sadaam using 1970's and early 80's Russian gear managed to shoot down 8 of them.

I can't help but think this whole Syria shebang will see us drop some token missiles on some soft targets early on and then quietly being relegated to the recon role with the occasional attack sortie. Supposedly this is largely what is happening in Iraq

From the MOD

1 October: An RAF Reaper remotely piloted aircraft patrolled ahead of Kurdish peshmerga as they conducted their latest offensive against the ISIL terror network in northern Iraq. The Reaper’s crew identified a team of armed terrorists moving on foot and successfully engaged them with a Hellfire missile. The Reaper then provided support to a coalition air strike on an ISIL facility, where car-bombs were being assembled; our aircraft used its sensors to sweep the surrounding area, ensuring there was no risk to civilians, before the air strike went ahead and destroyed the target.

2 October: Tornado GR4s from RAF Akrotiri also provided close air support to the peshmerga, south-west of Kirkuk. ISIL extremists were spotted and were struck by a Paveway IV guided bomb. Meanwhile, further south and west, a Reaper provided surveillance support to a coalition air strike on an ISIL-held building, then used one of its Hellfires to destroy an armoured truck. The Reaper then provided targeting support to another coalition aircraft as it engaged a terrorist heavy machine-gun concealed under trees.

4 October: RAF GR4s patrolling over western Iraq, where they destroyed an anti-aircraft gun position with a Paveway IV. A Reaper was also operating over Anbar province, and it supported coalition air attacks on two Da’ish buildings and a heavy machine-gun.

5 October: A Reaper, again operating over the west of the country, identified a terrorist team as they planted an improvised explosive device, and successfully attacked them with a Hellfire.

7 October: A pair of Tornados assisted Kurdish security forces when an advance west of Kirkuk came under fire from an ISIL mortar. The terrorist heavy weapon was struck by a Paveway IV precision guided bomb.

8 October: A Reaper located an ISIL check-point, used to prevent local civilians from enjoying any freedom of movement. The Reaper’s crew were able to conduct a successful attack using a Hellfire missile.

11 October: Tornado GR4s again provided close air support to the Kurdish forces, on this occasion north of Mosul. As with the incident earlier in the week, a terrorist mortar opened fire on the peshmerga, but was silenced by a Paveway IV strike.

16 October: GR4s used a Paveway to destroy an ISIL heavy machine-gun position.

18 October: A Reaper patrolling ahead of Iraqi troops identified two large truck-bombs and successfully attacked them with Hellfire missiles.

21 October: Two Tornado GR4s from RAF Akrotiri identified a group of armed ISIL terrorists in Ramadi and successfully engaged them with a Paveway IV guided bomb.

23 October: The crew of a Reaper remotely piloted aircraft identified an ISIL armoured personnel carrier, concealed under a large building. Despite the difficulty this target posed, the crew were able to position to destroy the vehicle with a Hellfire missile. The Reaper then supported another coalition aircraft in a successful strike on a second terrorist vehicle which had been identified nearby.

24 October: Another Reaper worked closely with coalition jets to carry out a series of precision attacks on terrorist positions. The Reaper identified two terrorist sniper positions, which were struck by guided bombs from a coalition aircraft. Advancing Iraqi troops then came into close combat with a group of terrorists; the Reaper maintained close observation on the firefight, and was able to eliminate one terrorist team, without endangering the Iraqi soldiers, using a Hellfire missile. When the terrorists retreated to positions in a trench and a culvert, the Reaper provided surveillance support to a coalition air strike which destroyed the trench, and conducted a second Hellfire strike itself on the extremists.

25 October: An RAF Reaper again joined forces with coalition fast jets to help them target two terrorist-held buildings which were successfully attacked, then mounted two strikes with Hellfire missiles on ISIL terrorists as they attempted to reposition themselves.

29 October: Tornado GR4s from RAF Akrotiri, supported by a Voyager air-to-air refuelling tanker, provided close air support to Iraqi troops operating near Bayji. A number of ISIL terrorists were observed manoeuvring towards an Iraqi position, and our aircraft successfully attacked three groups with Paveway IV guided bombs. Later that day, another GR4 flight conducted a strike on a fortified terrorist position near Tal Afar in the north-west of the country, hitting three targets with Paveways.

30 October: A pair of GR4s again provided close air support to the Iraqi army, on this occasion near the occupied city of Ramadi. Two Paveways successfully disrupted an attempted terrorist attack on an Iraqi unit. The ISIL terrorists then opened fire on the Iraqis with two light anti-aircraft cannons. Despite difficult weather conditions, the highly capable GR4s were able to target the gun positions using a second pair of Paveway IVs, and both terrorist guns were knocked out and the threat to them removed.

1 November: An RAF Reaper used a Hellfire missile to destroy a group of terrorists in close combat with Iraqi troops, while a second Reaper, operating over Anbar province, worked in close cooperation with coalition fast jets to assist Iraqi operations to isolate the ISIL terrorists in and around Ramadi. The Reaper provided surveillance support to six coalition air strikes on terrorists manoeuvring in the area, and conducted four highly accurate strikes of its own using Hellfire missiles on groups of extremists as they attempted to reposition themselves against the advancing Iraqi forces. In north-west Iraq, Tornado GR4s were meanwhile supporting Kurdish peshmerga near Sinjar: three Paveway attacks destroyed an armed pick-up truck, a weapons cache, and a sniper position.

2 November: A Reaper conducted three successful strikes with two Hellfire missiles and a GBU-12 guided bomb against ISIL terrorist positions in western Iraq, including an anti-aircraft gun which the Reaper had located.

3 November: A GR4 patrol again provided support to the Kurdish forces near Sinjar. A Brimstone missile destroyed a terrorist weapons cache, and a Paveway destroyed a mortar position on the top of a building.

12 November: As Kurdish forces launch a major offensive against ISIL terrorists in northern Iraq, the Royal Air Force has been playing a full part in coalition reconnaissance and strike missions to provide effective air support to them and other Iraqi ground forces.

9 manned attacks in 7 weeks doesn't sound like the sort of tempo which is going have ISIL cowering in their beds.
 

Jezbollah

Member
I thought the reason Saddam was able to shoot down 8 Tornados is that they were running close to the ground while deploying JP233s..

But yeah, they're quite long in the tooth now. I wonder if Harriers might have been a viable solution.. Hindsight etc.
 
It really makes you appreciate how (biblically) awesome the US military is. Utterly incomparable in any historical context. Not just their numbers but the whole support infrastructure.

Also, "I'm not going anywhere." You said it, Jeremy.
 

War Peaceman

You're a big guy.
I mean it is just a shitty joke

There's plenty of things wrong about Seumas Milne but that is just a bad joke like the ones Cameron made towards Angela Eagle or the joes about Dennis Skinner's age.
 

Kuros

Member
I mean it is just a shitty joke

There's plenty of things wrong about Seumas Milne but that is just a bad joke like the ones Cameron made towards Angela Eagle or the joes about Dennis Skinner's age.

If it turns out he did release fiddled survey results today it would be more serious. Jezzas mates do appear to be able to get away with anything tho.
 

Uzzy

Member
Absolutely disgraceful. Think what you like of Corbyn but his choice of appointments speaks volumes.


Take a look at @PickardJE's Tweet: https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/671426377489506304?s=09

That's what passes for absolutely disgraceful these days? It's certainly not nice, but I'm not sure it's that bad.

Anyway, looks like Cameron finally gets his chance to impress Obama and look big on the world stage. Doesn't matter that there's no plan to actually win the war, just as long as the RAF bomb some Toyota trucks in Syria, the job is done.
 
Well Beckett's been a Labour MP for 40 years, held a number of cabinet and shadow cabinet positions (as well as Deputy Leader) from working class origins whereas Seamus Milne's basically an upper class professional moaner, so it's not too hard to see why people might take away that Milne's at worst a total cunt and at best being disrespectful to someone who's basically given her entire life to the party and public service.
 
What is absolutely disgraceful is the Metro front page today. Painting the picture that the free vote given to Labour is the reason we are close to war, not Cameron's dodgy ill thought out plan.
 

kmag

Member
Absolutely disgraceful. Think what you like of Corbyn but his choice of appointments speaks volumes.


Take a look at @PickardJE's Tweet: https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/671426377489506304?s=09

Yeah, it's obviously far far worse than Cameron's chums allowing and ignoring an internal culture of bullying and blackmail to the point where a 21 year old activist took his own life.

Or does that not 'speak volumes' about Cameron, given his continual indefensible support of Shapps over a number of years and the fact that Feldman is his placeman (old college chum, ran his leadership campaign and is his regular tennis partner). Hell it's not as if at the point at which the deceased father was writing to the party asking them to investigate, Cameron went and gave one of the prime people involved a peerage or anything like that...oh wait...
 

Jezbollah

Member
What is absolutely disgraceful is the Metro front page today. Painting the picture that the free vote given to Labour is the reason we are close to war, not Cameron's dodgy ill thought out plan.

I think you need to read more into what's been going on behind the scenes (especially in the Labour shadow cabinet) before saying something like that...
 

Jezbollah

Member
Yeah, it's obviously far far worse than Cameron's chums allowing and ignoring an internal culture of bullying and blackmail to the point where a 21 year old activist took his own life.

Or does that not 'speak volumes' about Cameron, given his continual indefensible support of Shapps over a number of years and the fact that Feldman is his placeman (old college chum, ran his leadership campaign and is his regular tennis partner). Hell it's not as if at the point at which the deceased father was writing to the party, Cameron went and gave one of the prime people involved a peerage or anything like that...oh wait...

I wonder if it's likely that Cameron knew of such bullying in the first place around the time where something should have been done about it..
 

ruttyboy

Member
What is absolutely disgraceful is the Metro front page today. Painting the picture that the free vote given to Labour is the reason we are close to war, not Cameron's dodgy ill thought out plan.
Shitty as that is, the shocking thing for me is that they have a fuppin logo for "The war on Islamic state", both because it exists at all and also becuase it's, predictably, a target reticule...
 
I think you need to read more into what's been going on behind the scenes (especially in the Labour shadow cabinet) before saying something like that...

I know fully well what's been happening between the two sides for and against the war in Labour. The Metro, The Times, The Express and The Telegraph have all painted the headlines this morning as "Anti-war" Corbyn's fault. Damned if you do, damned if you don't but our right wing gutter press continue to surprise me on how terrible they are.
 

Jezbollah

Member
I know fully well what's been happening between the two sides for and against the war in Labour. The Metro, The Times, The Express and The Telegraph have all painted the headlines this morning as "Anti-war" Corbyn's fault. Damned if you do, damned if you don't but our right wing gutter press continue to surprise me on how terrible they are.

So do you not think the issue between the Labour party is down to how Jeremy Corbyn has approached the whole issue of internal policy?
 
I think the issue of going to war should be highlighted by the person who put forward going to war in the first place. We wouldn't be here if it wasn't for Cameron.
 

Maledict

Member
So do you not think the issue between the Labour party is down to how Jeremy Corbyn has approached the whole issue of internal policy?

This is the point. Corbyn and his team have, yet again, fucked up through process. He completely fails to understand the difference between being a backbench rebel in a gang of 20 friends, and leader of the opposition. He continues to treat the PLP in an incredibly cack-handed, dumb way that is designed to antagonise people.

I don't disagree with a lot of his points, but his management of his own party is ridiculously bad and it's the cause of a lot of the problems right now. It's not just the centre left blairites he's pissing off, he's also frustrating the majority of labour MPs who are trying to make this work.
 

ruttyboy

Member
I think the issue of going to war should be highlighted by the person who put forward going to war in the first place. We wouldn't be here if it wasn't for Cameron.

Exactly, if you accept the premise that going ahead with the bombing is wrong, as per the slant of the stories, why is it the 'fault' of the opposition for not stopping the government rather than the government's fault for wanting it in the first place?
 
Exactly, if you accept the premise that going ahead with the bombing is wrong, as per the slant of the stories, why is it the 'fault' of the opposition for not stopping the government rather than the government's fault for wanting it in the first place?

If shit hits the fan, DC will be blaming JC in a couple of months for not stopping his government. :p
 
So we're going to have a debate where the Leader of the Opposition opens with the case against airstrikes, and the Shadow Foreign Secretary closes with the case for airstrikes? Have I heard this right?
 

Jezbollah

Member
So we're going to have a debate where the Leader of the Opposition opens with the case against airstrikes, and the Shadow Foreign Secretary closes with the case for airstrikes? Have I heard this right?

Yep, that's exactly it. There's the whole Stop The War marching on Labour HQ (as well as Conservatives) too. The whole thing is bizarre.

https://youtu.be/QBaVmQfjvnQ

Ken on BBC this morning. Awkward.

oof. He just keeps digging that hole doesn't he?
 

Nicktendo86

Member
Yep, that's exactly it. There's the whole Stop The War marching on Labour HQ (as well as Conservatives) too. The whole thing is bizarre.



oof. He just keeps digging that hole doesn't he?

It's all the right wing media's fault. Comrade Corbyn is doing an upstanding job.

I wonder if he, as he was chairman of STW just a few weeks ago, will join them an march against himself?

Whatever you think of Corbyn this whole mess highlights why it was such an error to elect a backbench rebel to lead the party. People were saying this would happen.
 

Moosichu

Member
It's all the right wing media's fault. Comrade Corbyn is doing an upstanding job.

I wonder if he, as he was chairman of STW just a few weeks ago, will join them an march against himself?

Whatever you think of Corbyn this whole mess highlights why it was such an error to elect a backbench rebel to lead the party. People were saying this would happen.

The alternative is a leader and frontbench which all agree on bombing.

So if you are against it, who do you vote for leader? Who is an alternative that takes that stance?

I'm genuinely asking, cause the past couple of weeks have been a bit of a mess, but the lesser of two evils imo so to speak.
 

Uzzy

Member
Michael Fallon's infront of the Defence Committee right now, along with Lieutenant General Gordon Messenger. When pressed about the 70,000 troops that Cameron mentioned, they admitted that they're spread throughout Syria and not a coherent force. So that's good to know.

Also, the text of Wednesday's motion was published.

That this House notes that ISIL poses a direct threat to the United Kingdom; determines United Nations Security Council Resolution 2249 international that ISIL constitutes an they to peace and security' and calls on threat to have prevent terrorist acts states to take "all necessary notes the established by ISIL and to 'eradicate the haven with legal over parts of Iraq and Syria'; the UN basis to defend the UK and our allies in accordance component Charter, notes that military action against ISIL one and of a broader strategy to bring peace and stability to Syria; the renewed impetus behind the Vienna a commitment to providing the Government's continuing reconstruction importance humanitarian support Syrian refugees; of planning for Syria; welc the stabilisation and Government's continued notes to cut ISIL's sources of finance, fighters and weapons; the requests from France, the US and regional allies for UK military assistance; the importance of seeking to avoid casualties, the UK's particular capabilities; notes the Government will not deploy UK troops in ground combat Government's commitment to provide quarterly the military and accordingly supports progress reports t the offers action, specifically Her Majesty's Government in its wholehearted airstrikes, exclusively against ISIL in Syria; and support to Her Majesty's Armed Forces.
 

Nicktendo86

Member
The alternative is a leader and frontbench which all agree on bombing.

So if you are against it, who do you vote for leader? Who is an alternative that takes that stance?

I'm genuinely asking, cause the past couple of weeks have been a bit of a mess, but the lesser of two evils imo so to speak.

The thing is collective responsibility has gone out of the window, we have a situation where the leader wants to go one way but his shadow cabinet won't leave the room until he gives them what he wants. If we are to have an opposition that is against airstrikes then the leader needs a new cabinet, the whole situation is a mess.

Anywho, let's see what happens tomorrow.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
To be fair it's probably better for Corbyn to be attacked by the left wing press for allowing airstrikes than it is to be attacked by the right wing press for blocking them. Since he'll take flak for anything he chooses, it's smart to pick the newspapers that only have four readers.
 
So are we any closer to finding out who these 70k Syrian moderate fighters are? The Tory chairman of the Defence Committee Julian Lewis called the figure "Magical"
 
My view as a LD member:

Fingers crossed the Lib Dem group votes no to bombing Syria. If Corbyn's party cannot learn from their mistakes and he cannot effectively lead them, it'll fall to Farron's group (and I think the SNP) to adequately oppose the government thanks to, you know, the lack of the Opposition to actually oppose anything effectively.

At this rate Labour are going to be fightinga rough war on every single front: core working class voters to UKIP, left wing middle class voters to the LDs (plus Greens), Scotland firmly to the SNP, Wales to the LDs and Tories, not-Con voters to the LDs, Greens and some UKIP. He has to hammer some authority and direction on his cabinet and party soon or he is going to lose heavily in May.

It's crazy to see Labour as a more rump force right now than the Lib Dems, but that's honestly what it looks like sitting here. How are they supposed to win in 2020 if they can't even stand as a united party on defense matters?

This is great for us - the more Labour are seen as totally incapable of winning, the more it hampers the Tory soft-LD squeeze message in LD-Tory constituencies. If opens up the policy of regaining significant lost ground in 2020, especially in the SW.
 

kmag

Member
My view as a LD member:

Fingers crossed the Lib Dem group votes no to bombing Syria. If Corbyn's party cannot learn from their mistakes and he cannot effectively lead them, it'll fall to Farron's group (and I think the SNP) to adequately oppose the government thanks to, you know, the lack of the Opposition to actually oppose anything effectively.

At this rate Labour are going to be fightinga rough war on every single front: core working class voters to UKIP, left wing middle class voters to the LDs (plus Greens), Scotland firmly to the SNP, Wales to the LDs and Tories, not-Con voters to the LDs, Greens and some UKIP. He has to hammer some authority and direction on his cabinet and party soon or he is going to lose heavily in May.

It's crazy to see Labour as a more rump force right now than the Lib Dems, but that's honestly what it looks like sitting here. How are they supposed to win in 2020 if they can't even stand as a united party on defense matters?

This is great for us - the more Labour are seen as totally incapable of winning, the more it hampers the Tory soft-LD squeeze message in LD-Tory constituencies. If opens up the policy of regaining significant lost ground in 2020, especially in the SW.

Aren't the Libs going to vote for?
 

Uzzy

Member
So are we any closer to finding out who these 70k Syrian moderate fighters are? The Tory chairman of the Defence Committee Julian Lewis called the figure "Magical"

Basically, if you take everyone fighting in Syria who's not ISIS, al-Qaeda affiliated or the Syrian Armed Forces, you might just get to around 70,000 'moderates'.

Here's a list from Charles Lister, who's been studying the civil war.

Screen-Shot-2015-11-26-at-19.38.51.png


In addition to that list, there's maybe 30 smaller groups who, when totaled together, come up to around 10,000.

So, yes, Cameron might be correct in saying there's 70,000 moderates in Syria. But that barely begins to tell the whole story. They're not unified, they're not about to abandon their fight with Assad to go take on ISIS at the behest of the west, nor would they have the power to do so. They're currently being bombed by Assad and Russia! It's not as if their objectives would be achieved by suddenly obeying 10 Downing Street.
 
Aren't the Libs going to vote for?

Open question at the moment, and it depends on the outcome of a meeting tonight or Wednesday iirc. Farron gave five things the government needed to do to get LD support - legality (achieved), no-bomb zones (nope), an exit strategy (nope), and iirc (hard to research whilst on a phone) both a focus on working with Syria's neighbours and for a sensible diplomatic solution - these are still somewhat open for debate.

The big one is a creditable exit strategy. If Cameron can provide that, which would be a miracle, then I'd expect the LDs to vote for. The thing is, I don't think a creditable exit exists, even from a basic Clausewitzian analysis: there is no clear answer to how the campaign will break either ISIS's resources or its will, and the theatre is so messy that the amount of friction means that any further direction is totally unknowable - and only an unwise commander leads his forces into total question mark theatres!

Consider this: at this point, nobody even can pin down what victory is going to be. 'Defeating ISIS' is a fine New Year's Resolution but we live in a real anarchic international world, not a video game.

I'll be looking at this from an International Politics standpoint, and looking at the problem as it evolves at that level. Using war (a tool of IP) to win at a state-level game (the game of 'ISIS must die/Syria must be at peace' - at this point we don't even know) is like attempting to win at Chess by rolling for a Yahtzee. The approach is incompatible with the goal.
 

Moosichu

Member
It seems that both the Lib Dems and DUP will be backing Cameron tomorrow.

EDIT: So will Dan Jarvis whose words I agree with.

The thing is that when flaws are pointed out in the current strategy, the response usually is 'There must be some kind of action we can take which is better than doing nothing, this is an action, this action is better than nothing.'. However, I believe that the current airstrike proposals are worse than doing nothing. Do I believe there is action that would be a lot better? Yes, maybe. But the current proposals are far from that.

Isn't this quote hugely dubious? Or is there evidence to back up this claim?

These tactics are working in Iraq. Airstrikes have weakened Isil and a third of their territory has been retaken with no civilian casualties.
 

Uzzy

Member
Nah, territory has been retaken in Iraq. Because there's actual ground forces there to retake that land.

Dan Jarvis seems a bit off when he says this.

Questions have rightly been asked of the Joint Intelligence Committee’s assessment that 70,000 moderate forces are available to help do the same in Syria. It reminds me of the dilemma I faced when commanding Afghan soldiers whose knowledge was invaluable but whose competencies were questionable in other areas. Sometimes you have to work with what you have, but the Prime Minister does need to provide greater clarity about how these troops would function as a coherent fighting force.

The answer is that they won't, certainly not as long as Assad remains in the picture.
 

Moosichu

Member
Nah, territory has been retaken in Iraq. Because there's actual ground forces there to retake that land.

Dan Jarvis seems a bit off when he says this.



The answer is that they won't, certainly not as long as Assad remains in the picture.


I'm not doubting the tactics workign in Iraq, I'm doubting the 'no civilian casualties claim'. Also saying Cameron 'needs to offer clarity' is such an understatement as well.
 
Isn't this quote hugely dubious? Or is there evidence to back up this claim?

Maybe we have magic missles that only harm terrorists?

According to @laurakbbc Dave apparently said this

"PM urged his MPs not to "walk through the lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and a bunch of terrorist sympathisers"
 

kmag

Member
Maybe we have magic missles that only harm terrorists?

According to @laurakbbc Dave apparently said this

"PM urged his MPs not to "walk through the lobbies with Jeremy Corbyn and a bunch of terrorist sympathisers"

Surprised he got the Saudi cock out of his mouth long enough to try to get self-righteous
 
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