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UK PoliGAF |OT2| - We Blue Ourselves

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kmag

Member
Indeed. I've been trying to find an article that goes into Farron's thinking on this but couldnt find any :\

He was another who had a 5 point test, but he's kept his head down, and tonight sent out Nick Clegg to announce the position

Pretty cowardly, his main goal seems to be getting nothing on camera one way or another so if it's a success he can point to his vote and if it's a massive clusterfuck there will little to hit him with.
 

Jezbollah

Member
He was another who had a 5 point test, but he's kept his head down, and tonight sent out Nick Clegg to announce the position

Pretty cowardly, his main goal seems to be getting nothing on camera one way or another so if it's a success he can point to his vote and if it's a massive clusterfuck there will little to hit him with.

Wow. Just wow.
 

kmag

Member
Wow. Just wow.

Take a quick gander at libdemvoice you've got Tim talking about World Aids Day, Tim on the affordable homes sell off, Tim on Have I got News for You, Tim welcoming gay blood ban review

The only article mentioning his Syrian position is a transcript of his comments in the House following Cameron's speech last week

I thank the Prime Minister for his statement and for early sight of it. There are understandable knee-jerk reactions on both sides to the horror of Paris and of Beirut. There will be those who say, “Intervene”; those who say, “Intervene at all costs”; and also those who say, “Do not intervene no matter what the evidence points to.” The Prime Minister knows that the Liberal Democrats have set out five criteria against which we can judge this statement. On that basis, may I press him on two particular points? The Prime Minister recognises that air strikes alone will not defeat ISIL. He has already heard that he will need to give much more evidence to this House to convince it that the ground operations that are there are sufficient and have the capability and the credibility to deliver on the ground, which is what he knows needs to be delivered. What role will Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and the other Gulf states play in delivering this victory, if that is the direction in which we choose to go as a country and as a House? There is also a reference to humanitarian aid in this statement. He will know that no amount of aid can help an innocent family dodge a bomb. There is no reference in this statement to establishing no-bomb zones or safe havens to protect innocent civilians if this action takes place. Will he answer that question?

The Prime Minister:
I thank the hon. Gentleman for his response and for the fact that his party wants to engage with the arguments, think very carefully and consider the key national security arguments before making its judgment. I know that the national security adviser was pleased to brief its members last night and stands ready to brief them and answer any detailed questions that they might have. I am determined that there should be no knee-jerk reaction. I take very seriously what happened in Paris. I know absolutely that that could just as well happen in the UK, as it could happen in Belgium or elsewhere in Europe, and that the threat that we face is very, very severe. I want us to consider this and to think it through. I do not want anyone to feel that a good process has not been followed, so that if people agree with the case being put, they can in all conscience vote to support it.

The hon. Gentleman asked two specific questions. On humanitarian aid, we will continue to deliver that. On no-bomb zones, the dangers and difficulties with no-bomb zones and safe zones are that they have to be enforced, and that can require the taking out of air defences, which would spread the conflict wider and which, in many cases, requires the presence of ground troops. We will not be putting in ground troops for those purposes. I do not want to declare a safe zone unless it is genuinely safe. Of course what we want is a growing part of Iraq and a growing part of Syria to be no-bomb zones because there will no bombing taking place as we will have a political agreement that will deliver the ceasefires that we need, and we will have taken action to reduce ISIL.

On the question of ground troops and the role of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, they on the whole have been helping to fund the moderate Syrian opposition which, in my view, needs to play a part in the future of that country, and they strongly support the action that Britain proposes to take.
 
Take a quick gander at libdemvoice you've got Tim talking about World Aids Day, Tim on the affordable homes sell off, Tim on Have I got News for You, Tim welcoming gay blood ban review

The only article mentioning his Syrian position is a transcript of his comments in the House following Cameron's speech last week

There wasn't a direct need for a post - iirc Party HQ fired out an email from Tim on the topic when the five tests were decided on - I'd assume the editors decided to cover the Hansard transcript instead because there was no formal statement?

I'd not read cowardice into this - for all we know he was simply unavailable to comment, so Clegg went out as he's the foreign policy chap in the eight of them.

When we hear Farron's statement I'll give it a fair shake - but I'd be surprised if one statement turns my head from everything I learned from my International Politics degree. This has Clausewitzian friction all over it, and we do not even have an iota of a plan of action or an appreciation for the consequences.
 

Jezbollah

Member
Just learning of the treatment Ilford South MP Mike Gapes is getting on Twitter. Wishing that others end up in hospital like him just because he backs the bombing says it all.
 

Empty

Member
BBC actually running with the "Terrorist Sympathisers" attack on News at Ten. Will be interesting to see the papers tomorrow.

this is the goal

even if there's backlash as it's preposterously undignified the ensuing controversy and coverage just reaffirms the established connection between the labour party and being weak on national security and pro-terrorism

cameron will never contest another general election so it doesn't matter if people think he's a prick.
 
Just learning of the treatment Ilford South MP Mike Gapes is getting on Twitter. Wishing that others end up in hospital like him just because he backs the bombing says it all.

The militant left is a scary thing.

Those less prone to hyperbole will be unsurprised to learn that the number of messages like this were utterly minor, but clearly a few awful tweets hasn't stopped the Daily Mail running with a "Look how awful Corbyn supporters are!" article for people like Dan and Nicktendo to lap up.
 

Walshicus

Member
The militant left is a scary thing.

Compared to the just plain evil right? I mean I get the rhetoric might be stronger, but they're not the ones hankering to blow some Syrian families to pieces in order to prove Call Me Dave's manhood operates outside of a pig fucking context. They're not the traitors happy to destroy millions of English lives through ideologically driven 'austerity' in order to put a few billion quid in their toff-nosed chums pockets.


But that's just my opinion.
 
I only saw one person tweet abuse and Louise Haigh was quick to condemn then. Louise has been a credit to her party recently.
I just had a look through any tweets mentioning him since he took ill. Didn't find a single abusive tweet related to his illness, just a mass outpouring of support. Eventually there's a few tweets with a screenshot of one terrible message from Facebook and then the Daily Mail article appears and it turns to people condeming "Corbyn supporters", still no abusive messages. Those fucking militant lefties!
 

Jezbollah

Member
Those less prone to hyperbole will be unsurprised to learn that the number of messages like this were utterly minor, but clearly a few awful tweets hasn't stopped the Daily Mail running with a "Look how awful Corbyn supporters are!" article for people like Dan and Nicktendo to lap up.

Likewise to those reacting to Cameron talking about Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser then? Nasty stuff is being said all around the board, and as much as those the likes of you may not like it, it's not just the Tories.

I just had a look through any tweets mentioning him since he took ill. Didn't find a single abusive tweet related to his illness, just a mass outpouring of support. Eventually there's a few tweets with a screenshot of one terrible message from Facebook and then the Daily Mail article appears and it turns to people condeming "Corbyn supporters", still no abusive messages. Those fucking militant lefties!

Here you go. A non-DM link for you.
 

Uzzy

Member
Likewise to those reacting to Cameron talking about Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser then? Nasty stuff is being said all around the board, and as much as those the likes of you may not like it, it's not just the Tories.

I don't think the Prime Minister accusing the leader of the opposition of being a 'terrorist sympathiser' is even remotely in the same league as some trolls on twitter wishing harm on an MP.

I mean, if Corbyn opens his statement tomorrow by declaring that Cameron's a fascist and has a murderboner, then maybe I'd agree that 'it's not just the Tories'.
 

Jezbollah

Member
Everyone knows Cameron's thoughts on Corbyn - called him that at the conference - it's not new, and it was shitty. Wishing people in the same party to be as ill as someone in hospital for voting the way they want is also shitty.

But of course, there are *some* who will go on auto-defense to discredit what they see as any attack on their agenda, right?

Perhaps Zomg was right after all about UKPoliGAF....
 
I mean, this doesn't change anything, does it? You can basically just swap the words "Corbyn supporters" for "trolls" and they're the same articles making a massive deal out of of three (three!) awful messages.
To equate that with the prime minister calling people who are against bombing Syria "terrorist sympathisers" is laughable.
 
Update on the proprtion of the general public our PM thinks are terrorist sympathisers:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9560

YouGov and the Times have some fresh Syria polling tonight, conducted on Monday evening and during the day on Tuesday. It shows a sharp drop in support for airstrikes since YouGov’s polling a week ago, but the overall balance of opinion is still in favour: 48% now support RAF airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, 31% are opposed. A week ago the figures were 59% to 20%.

More than voted for his party in the last election!
 

RedShift

Member
Likewise to those reacting to Cameron talking about Corbyn as a terrorist sympathiser then? Nasty stuff is being said all around the board, and as much as those the likes of you may not like it, it's not just the Tories.

Are you comparing what a handful of random twats on Twitter said to what the fucking Prime Minister said?

I think the latter should be held to a slightly higher standard, don't you?
 
Sorry, I think the impact is less given that he's already called him that. But if you think I should be outraged the second time around, then sure, just for you.
Well imagine this is the first time he's called the leader of the opposition a terrorist sympathiser, and then make it worse by lumping in everyone else who doesn't support bombing Syria. Still not worse than three awful messages from anonymous idiots online?
 

Empty

Member
cameron didn't say people who are against bombing are terrorist sympathizers. that would be a pretty staggering and bonkers attack on many of his own mp's if so. he said his mp's shouldn't share the same voting position as the terrorist sympathizers who would also vote against it. which is a terrible argument - just because bad people support something doesn't make the idea bad itself - but not really untrue - mcdonnell with his rich history of ira support is quite literally a terrorist sympathizer.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It seems that Stella Creasy is reported to be one of the first to be targeted for deselection.

Interesting criteria of reasons why. I wonder if this might be a pattern going forwards...

“If you look at the seat, there is nothing to win here,” said one Labour member, who believes that Momentum and other groups are planning to depose Creasy. Momentum has denied any plot to remove Creasy as the MP.

Don't you just love it when the entire source for an article is one unnamed Labour member? #highqualityjournalism
 
I don't understand the need to bomb Syria at all. It's just going to stir up hate within the Country for us evening more, as far as my own 'man on the street' opinion can go. I don't pretend to know the deeps ins and outs of Politics, but I think I'm a somewhat decent person and it just sounds/feels stupid to go and bomb Syria.

What are our extra attacks on top of those already attacking Syria going to do?
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I guess we'll find out very soon, right?

Nobody will bother with a compulsory deselection policy when the boundary changes are coming up; that's a free opportunity to replace poorly favoured MPs without wasting political capital. Creasy will have to be put up for reselection when that happens, but that's not nefarious plotting, that's just because her constituency is being fused with one being held by another Labour MP, so... someone has to go. Momentum will probably help her opponent, but that's fair game; Progress will probably help Creasy.

This takes like 2 minutes of research to establish by looking up Labour Party standing procedure for boundary changes, hence my disdain for the quality of the journalism.
 

ruttyboy

Member
Sorry, I think the impact is less given that he's already called him that. But if you think I should be outraged the second time around, then sure, just for you.

I don't understand your thinking here, are you saying that something outrageous is no longer outrageous once it's been said once. So if Corbyn wanted to call DC a "child-fucking greedcunt", he'd only have to deal with backlash the first time, after that, it's fair play?
 

Walshicus

Member
I don't understand the need to bomb Syria at all. It's just going to stir up hate within the Country for us evening more, as far as my own 'man on the street' opinion can go. I don't pretend to know the deeps ins and outs of Politics, but I think I'm a somewhat decent person and it just sounds/feels stupid to go and bomb Syria.

What are our extra attacks on top of those already attacking Syria going to do?

Nothing. This is just an expensive adventure the Cameroid can use to pretend to be relevant with.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
I don't understand the need to bomb Syria at all. It's just going to stir up hate within the Country for us evening more, as far as my own 'man on the street' opinion can go. I don't pretend to know the deeps ins and outs of Politics, but I think I'm a somewhat decent person and it just sounds/feels stupid to go and bomb Syria.

What are our extra attacks on top of those already attacking Syria going to do?

It's not about the marginal impact of our bombing on top of whatever is there already.

It is about having the biggest possible coalition, both diplomatic and military, against ISIS. And, in the long run, it is about the difference between an upsurge in militant cruel Islamism lasting maybe 50 years or maybe 500 years.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It's not about the marginal impact of our bombing on top of whatever is there already.

It is about having the biggest possible coalition, both diplomatic and military, against ISIS. And, in the long run, it is about the difference between an upsurge in militant cruel Islamism lasting maybe 50 years or maybe 500 years.

This assumes that bombing will reduce militant Islamism tho.
 

Jezbollah

Member
I don't understand your thinking here, are you saying that something outrageous is no longer outrageous once it's been said once. So if Corbyn wanted to call DC a "child-fucking greedcunt", he'd only have to deal with backlash the first time, after that, it's fair play?

I never said that it's no longer outrageous, and that once it's said once, anything is fair play (it sounds like you're almost putting words in my mouth there). I am saying that people shouldn't be surprised at this opinion of Camerons as he has already called him a "terrorist sympathizer" at his own party conference.
 
I've never lived through a bombing, other than the IRA's attempts in the 90s and even then being in the North-East it was a pretty distant threat. However, London was bombed every night during World War II and the UK never surrendered, how can they forget this?

I can't help but imagine that it'll just cause more harm than good to bomb anyone, I can't imagine it ending any threat short or long term. It just seems pointless.
 

Protome

Member
I've never lived through a bombing, other than the IRA's attempts in the 90s and even then being in the North-East it was a pretty distant threat. However, London was bombed every night during World War II and the UK never surrendered, how can they forget this?

I can't help but imagine that it'll just cause more harm than good to bomb anyone, I can't imagine it ending any threat short or long term. It just seems pointless.

The intention is for the bombing to magically destroy ISIS. It's to weaken them to allow the ground forces in the area to retake land. At face value this would be the Syrian rebels, in reality Russia is aiming a lot of their strikes at the Syrian rebels so it'll be Assad.
 

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
This assumes that bombing will reduce militant Islamism tho.

No, it assumes that the whole package, diplomatic and military, will do so over time. And sure, that may be a big assumption. But denying territory to ISIS looks a damn good start, because of all the caliphate stuff.
 
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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
No, it assumes that the whole package, diplomatic and military, will do so over time. And sure, that may be a big assumption. But denying territory to ISIS looks a damn good start, because of all the caliphate stuff.

But... there is no whole package?
 
The intention is for the bombing to magically destroy ISIS. It's to weaken them to allow the ground forces in the area to retake land. At face value this would be the Syrian rebels, in reality Russia is aiming a lot of their strikes at the Syrian rebels so it'll be Assad.

Perhaps it's my total lack of knowledge here, but all of that reads like what happened in Afghanistan 20/30 years ago so Bin Laden could become leader?
 

Jezbollah

Member
But... there is no whole package?

Yeah this is the big issue. There is no roadmap to an overall non-military solution. We need a diplomatic effort big enough to form some sort of unity agreement with most of the states in the region for them to work together, but with the political dynamic in place that is going to take a long time if it happens at all.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Stealing my post from somewhere else:

Airstrikes don't actually take ground, they merely support ground troops in taking ground. That means we need ground troops. Those ground troops need to fulfil a number of criteria. They need to be available in large enough numbers to actually take the territory, reasonably well accepted by the people in the territory they control so that we aren't indirectly increasing IS recruitment, and they need to actually be able to defend the territory militarily in our absence in the event we leave and things go pear-shaped.

Currently these ground troops do not exist. There's no rebel group with the number available to take the territory. Russian estimates put IS fighter numbers at 80,000, the most recent CIA estimates at 70,000. It is harder to take territory than defend it, so you need significantly more than that. There are not that many opposition rebels, even if there were they don't have unified command, and even if they had that they also have to contend with the Syrian security forces and can't put sufficient troops towards their IS border; they certainly couldn't hold territory in our absence.

To solve these problems, we need to be able to create a unified front of these groups that is not distracted by the Syrian security forces. Short of a ground invasion by our own forces, that necessarily involves negotiating a power-sharing deal between the Syrian government and the opposition(s). In order for the condition of acceptance to be at least reasonably met, Assad will have to go, but equally to avoid a repeat of the deBa'athification of Iraq, senior Assad figures will have to remain. In order to get Assad to go, we need Russian and Iranian support, which means conceding ground in other areas - e.g., lifting some of the sanctions currently in place.

Once we've done all that, we can commit to airstrikes. Before than, airstrikes in Syria are entirely pointless. They do nothing except cost money and make us temporarily feel good.
 

ruttyboy

Member
I never said that it's no longer outrageous, and that once it's said once, anything is fair play (it sounds like you're almost putting words in my mouth there). I am saying that people shouldn't be surprised at this opinion of Camerons as he has already called him a "terrorist sympathizer" at his own party conference.

People perhaps shouldn't be surprised, no, but they should definitely still be outraged every time he expresses that opinion, due to it being... outrageous.

It seemed like you were saying that people shouldn't still be outraged as it should be expected, apologies if that wasn't your intention.
 

mr-paul

Member
I grew up in the New Forest and never liked having Julian Lewis as my MP. But I have to have some respect for him as a tory standing up against the Syrian airstrikes, and he does tend to know a lot about military/defence matters.
 

Jezbollah

Member
I grew up in the New Forest and never liked having Julian Lewis as my MP. But I have to have some respect for him as a tory standing up against the Syrian airstrikes, and he does tend to know a lot about military/defence matters.

It's quite a paradox when you have a Tory like you mention against the strikes, and then you have Dan Jarvis on Labour in support of them.
 
In case anyone wants to hear Tim Farron's position, at a little after half past four on Radio 5 he was interviewed.

I am still very unhappy with him.
 

Walshicus

Member
It's not about the marginal impact of our bombing on top of whatever is there already.

It is about having the biggest possible coalition, both diplomatic and military, against ISIS. And, in the long run, it is about the difference between an upsurge in militant cruel Islamism lasting maybe 50 years or maybe 500 years.

And why would we (repeatedly) chose the option that favours the 500 year station duration?

Neither of us is naïve enough to think bombing in Syria is done with the intention of ending ISIS.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not against military action to sort out the region. I'm just not going to fool myself into thinking that such a project is anything other than a multi-generation effort requiring hundreds of thousands of soldiers and trillions of pounds. These strikes? They're pointless at best, likely counterproductive and probably going to kill more civilians than they'll save.
 
lol. I've now got visions of him dressed up as Rambo with a knife in his teeth :)

jarvis1-287288.jpg


Pretty hot
 

RedShift

Member
I would consider supporting air strikes if the people proposing them could even give a half realistic answer about what they want the political situation in Syria to be like in 5-10 years.

So far the plan seems to be

1. Bomb Syria
2. Imaginary army of 70,000 moderate fighters appears to simultaneously wipe out ISIS and Assad
3. ???
4. Profit

Edit: Cameron being asked to withdraw/apologise for calling oponents of his war terrorist sympathisers 12 times. Shaking with rage Salmond is best Salmond.
 
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