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[CyclopsRock]

I saw a sensible suggestion earlier that, from a political POV, Osborne should have moved to Foreign Sec after the election. That way before any leadership bid, he's been minister for two of the four great offices of state, it enabled any "stormy financial waters" to affect him far less than it will do now, and allows him to stay somewhat about the standard polical fray (in the way Hague always did) making his potential leadership slightly less tainted by whatever he was going to taint it with (which we now know is this budget).

There's something about the Euros, I swear it...

 

[Roberto Larcos]

I saw a sensible suggestion earlier that, from a political POV, Osborne should have moved to Foreign Sec after the election. That way before any leadership bid, he's been minister for two of the four great offices of state, it enabled any "stormy financial waters" to affect him far less than it will do now, and allows him to stay somewhat about the standard polical fray (in the way Hague always did) making his potential leadership slightly less tainted by whatever he was going to taint it with (which we now know is this budget).

There's something about the Euros, I swear it...

The time to do that has passed though, I think. This has already hit his reputation hard - if the budget fails to pass, his chances of leadership will be gone. At any rate, the parallels to Brown will be a major line of attack for any opposition.

 

[CyclopsRock]

The time to do that has passed though, I think. This has already hit his reputation hard - if the budget fails to pass, his chances of leadership will be gone. At any rate, the parallels to Brown will be a major line of attack for any opposition.

Yeah, for sure. Even if it does, it took him years to recover from 2012. Even if it passes and we vote to remain in the EU, I think May would stand a better chance of success than GO right now.

 

[tomtom94]

I did some digging a while back on how the Tory leadership contest works and my understanding is the party's MPs nominate two candidates and then the entire party membership gets a vote on which of them gets it. Is this correct?

 

[JonathanEx]

Yeah, for sure. Even if it does, it took him years to recover from 2012. Even if it passes and we vote to remain in the EU, I think May would stand a better chance of success than GO right now.

Oh god

oh god

it'll be Boris then

 

[CyclopsRock]

I did some digging a while back on how the Tory leadership contest works and my understanding is the party's MPs nominate two candidates and then the entire party membership gets a vote on which of them gets it. Is this correct?

I believe so, though IIRC the MP voting goes through rounds (or perhaps just preference-based voting systems). I seem to remember it all being rather exciting last time with various candidates getting knocked out and their votes moving to other candidates still in the contest. I also seem to remember Cameron and David Davis on some breakfast TV show answering inane quick-fire questions like they were evicted Big Brother contestants.

Oh god

oh god

it'll be Boris then

Only if we Brexit! This here's some high-stakes leadership contest. The referendum'll make and break careers.

 

[JonathanEx]

I sort of think Boris could cope with a Remain better than most others, just because he's bloody Boris. Would be hard within the party.

If it is remain - who are the other options? Osborne's weakened by this, May is determined but a creepy robot... for however much Davey Cameron is a pie, he can pull of some semblance of a human and personality, which is a bit missing among other cabinet ministers.

 

[tomtom94]

I believe so, though IIRC the MP voting goes through rounds (or perhaps just preference-based voting systems). I seem to remember it all being rather exciting last time with various candidates getting knocked out and their votes moving to other candidates still in the contest. I also seem to remember Cameron and David Davis on some breakfast TV show answering inane quick-fire questions like they were evicted Big Brother contestants.

I wonder how many people will run, we could have more people than the Republican primary lol.

Don't suppose you know if it's a one-man-one-vote system or something like Labour used to have pre-Miliband do you? I doubt it'll make a difference but just for the sake of knowledge really...

Only if we Brexit! This here's some high-stakes leadership contest. The referendum'll make and break careers.

I genuinely don't think it matters whether we leave the EU or not, since the net effect after the referendum could well be similar to Scotland and throw the Brexiteers into persecution mode. Which gives Boris - or someone else with a good sense of timing - a great opportunity to position himself as the voice of the backbench who have been unheard for too long.

But who knows. I had no idea people were tipping Crabb until yesterday. (Surely a man who has links with a gay cure organisation would be a step too far even for the Conservatives, though.)

 

[Toytown Assassin]

IIRC tory leadership works as follows.

you need just 2 mps to support you to get on the ballot.

Exhaustive voting rounds by mps. Whoever scores lowest is knocked out and people can choose to drop out after each round of voting if they feel it's all over for them.

Final 2 put to members via postal vote. 1 member 1 vote. Unlike labour you cant join after this starts and get to vote so no fun and games like the labour vote but the fact that only 2 go forward to the members should stop anyone the mps don't like getting on the ballot in the 1st place so it doesn't really matter much.

 

[JonathanEx]

So we're going for full unity then

 

[PJV3]

So we're going for full unity then

Is that a joke headline?

I have really enjoyed this weekend, much more satisfying than the Cameron pig fucking incident.

 

[JonathanEx]

Is that a joke headline?

Although I have form, this one is real.

 

[Beefy]

What paper?
*Edit: I am blind.

 

[PJV3]

God, we're going to end up with Boris as PM.
It's like the Omen, you can't fight against the forces at work.

 

[Beefy]

God, we're going to end up with Boris as PM.
It's like the Omen, you can't fight against the forces at work.

I just don't want to see Osborne's smug robot face anymore.

 

[Jezbollah]

I actually fully believe that article and Cameron's opinion on this mess.

 

[Kuros]

IIRC tory leadership works as follows.

you need just 2 mps to support you to get on the ballot.

Exhaustive voting rounds by mps. Whoever scores lowest is knocked out and people can choose to drop out after each round of voting if they feel it's all over for them.

Final 2 put to members via postal vote. 1 member 1 vote. Unlike labour you cant join after this starts and get to vote so no fun and games like the labour vote but the fact that only 2 go forward to the members should stop anyone the mps don't like getting on the ballot in the 1st place so it doesn't really matter much.

Yep. Howard tried to change it after the IDS debacle but couldn't get it through. The main issue was that they gave the rank and file a choice between Ken Clarke and IDS which was only ever going to go one way.

For party cohesion it's probably better to just vote amongst MPs but i understand why that doesn't look good from a democratic point of view. Still though with only 2 MP's being put to the rank and file it shouldn't be too hard to get it right.

I do wonder though. If the MP's select Gideon and Boris who would win in a vote?

 

[Kuros]

I sort of think Boris could cope with a Remain better than most others, just because he's bloody Boris. Would be hard within the party.

If it is remain - who are the other options? Osborne's weakened by this, May is determined but a creepy robot... for however much Davey Cameron is a pie, he can pull of some semblance of a human and personality, which is a bit missing among other cabinet ministers.

I think it depends on the size of the vote. A close remain say 51-49 and the wound will not be healed quickly. If the country votes 60-40 the debate is over and Boris will do a magic flip. It won't stop UKIP etc crying foul and calling it a fix though. And i wonder whether a few MP's (Bone etc) will leave the Tories due to sour grapes.

If we leave. It's Boris all the way.

 

[kmag]

Yep. Howard tried to change it after the IDS debacle but couldn't get it through. The main issue was that they gave the rank and file a choice between Ken Clarke and IDS which was only ever going to go one way.

For party cohesion it's probably better to just vote amongst MPs but i understand why that doesn't look good from a democratic point of view. Still though with only 2 MP's being put to the rank and file it shouldn't be too hard to get it right.

I do wonder though. If the MP's select Gideon and Boris who would win in a vote?

Boris, by a mile. Boris's issue is that the Tory MP's by an large don't particularly rate/like him. Well don't like isn't really the issue, Boris was a terrible, terrible MP last time around and he's just not seen as dependable.

 

[Beefy]

Some people are very sheltered on the benefits problem. One guy saying the people losing benefits through Atos medics are just "mistakes".

 

[tomtom94]

Boris, by a mile. Boris's issue is that the Tory MP's by an large don't particularly rate/like him. Well don't like isn't really the issue, Boris was a terrible, terrible MP last time around and he's just not seen as dependable.

Boris has the party membership vote easily, you'd think, not least because he can steal blue-collar votes from Labour and UKIP. Plus I can't help but feel the Corbyn effect would kick in if they started attacking him too hard and his supporters would just double down.

In news, Osborne will face the House himself over the Budget complaints rather than getting someone to stand in his stead. So that should be interesting.

 

[Jezbollah]

In news, Osborne will face the House himself over the Budget complaints rather than getting someone to stand in his stead. So that should be interesting.

Popcorn.gif

EDIT: Urgent Question by the Shadow Chancellor submitted for answering at 3:30pm today.

 

[PJV3]

Popcorn.gif

They should let Ed Balls back for the day, he drove Osborne mad pulling faces and winding him up.

Wednesday isn't the day for labour to play nicely.

 

[Saiyar]

The government isn't going to oppose the Labour amendments to the budget with regards to tampon and Solar panel VAT.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

They should let Ed Balls back for the day, he drove Osborne mad pulling faces and winding him up.

Slightly off-topic - are we expecting Balls to come back into Parliament at some point (a la Portillo)? Or is he gone for good?

 

[operon]

If we vote to leave Boris has pm on lock (shit) but if we vote to stay i reckon may has it(we 're fucked)

 

[Roberto Larcos]

If we vote to leave Boris has pm on lock (shit) but if we vote to stay i reckon may has it(we 're fucked)

A credible Lib Dem party really could be winning in the polls right now. Shame they got absolutely demolished last election.

 

[Beefy]

If we vote to leave Boris has pm on lock (shit) but if we vote to stay i reckon may has it(we 're fucked)

Boris is a easy choice then...

 

[Saiyar]

Looks like David Gauke is being sent out to answer Labour's question this afternoon. Poor man.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

Boris is a easy choice then...

But if May got in (and I think it will actually be someone out of left field) - at least she'd be bound (in the above scenario) by the EU and the ECJ - which would stop her stripping away all rights. Maybe Boris would only strip away most of our rights if we left the EU, but May would still likely be in his government - and God knows what we'd have left by the time 2020 rolls around. So.... I'd rather have May?

Looks like David Gauke is being sent out to answer Labour's question this afternoon. Poor man.

4th most significant Ministerial role within the Treasury. Glad to see they're taking it seriously. I wonder what 1, 2 and 3's excuses were.

 

[Kelthink]

I'm genuinely surprised Osborne has ever been touted as potential tory leader, even within their own party. He's dogshit. Gove, May, even Hague (again) have a better chance surely?

 

[operon]

Boris is a easy choice then...

unfortunately as much as I can't stand Boris he's really the only choice that is palatable

 

[tomtom94]

4th most significant Ministerial role within the Treasury. Glad to see they're taking it seriously. I wonder what 1, 2 and 3's excuses were.

Jesus. It's only McDonnell for Christ's sake.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

Jesus. It's only McDonnell for Christ's sake.

Imagine an Alan Johnson would be doing to them... sigh

 

[Beefy]

But if May got in (and I think it will actually be someone out of left field) - at least she'd be bound (in the above scenario) by the EU and the ECJ - which would stop her stripping away all rights. Maybe Boris would only strip away most of our rights if we left the EU, but May would still likely be in his government - and God knows what we'd have left by the time 2020 rolls around. So.... I'd rather have May

May is still far worse for me.

 

[Maledict]

I'm genuinely surprised Osborne has ever been touted as potential tory leader, even within their own party. He's dogshit. Gove, May, even Hague (again) have a better chance surely?

Osbourne has built up a network of support through patronage for the last decade - he has a *lot* of tory MPs in his back pocket which should ensure he gets through to the final two. If it's then down to him versus Boris, he'll be relying on the quiet sane Tories to win the election with the "quietly competent" tagline.

(Which this latest budget fiasco has really damaged him on).

 

[Roberto Larcos]

May is still far worse for me.

I just see May as (probably) very temporary. She can screw people, but while we have EU law, we'll keep our rights. I almost hate myself for saying this, but we should not have opted out of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU. Yes it treads on sovereignty, yes it probably goes too far. But now, there's the very real risk of that all being swept away. At any rate, human rights is precisely the area that I wouldn't mind being taken out of our MPs' hands. Less egregious would be the EU getting a move on regarding accession to the ECHR.

Boris is less horrible - but May would still wield an unholy amount of influence in any government of his - and lack of EU law would mean that she could strip away human and working rights with consummate ease.

 

[Jezbollah]

Looks like David Gauke is being sent out to answer Labour's question this afternoon. Poor man.

Osborne is a fucking coward. His leadership credentials are buried with this.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Imagine an Alan Johnson would be doing to them... sigh

Honestly, not much. He's a really decent bloke who I think is generally well liked across the board, but he was a pretty lousy shadow chancellor precisely because he was too nice of a guy, I think. Plus he basically didn't know anything about economics. At least with Balls, when he was telling porkies he was doing it willfully.

4th most significant Ministerial role within the Treasury. Glad to see they're taking it seriously. I wonder what 1, 2 and 3's excuses were.

That's generally considered the smallest number of participants for a game of soggy biscuit. Or so I've heard. Coincidence?

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

Cameron spewing a lot of nothing to defend the failing budget on tv. He's really not addressing any concerns.

 

[Jezbollah]

Cameron was spouting bollocks, but this response from Corbyn is another rambling mess not getting to an impactful point..

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

Cameron was spouting bollocks, but this response from Corbyn is another rambling mess not getting to an impactful point..

I agree with you, but unfortunately this debate is structured around more than the budget, so as important as the refugee crises is, most of the public are going to tune out of the first issue to get to the second.

The big story is Osborne cowering away more than Cameron's statement.

 

[Fernando Fernandez]

George Osborne coming across as a fraud today.

 

[Jezbollah]

Apparently Osbourne is going to show his face tomorrow...

 

[tomtom94]

Interesting point I saw raised earlier is that this is actually the culmination of an earlier gamble by Osborne which didn't really pay off, specifically hoping for another coalition government in which he could bargain away his promised welfare cuts.

Nick Clegg's reign of destruction continues.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Interesting point I saw raised earlier is that this is actually the culmination of an earlier gamble by Osborne which didn't really pay off, specifically hoping for another coalition government in which he could bargain away his promised welfare cuts.

Nick Clegg's reign of destruction continues.

Ha ha, GO didn't really want to be evil he just wanted to look evil for his voters benefit (pun intended).... xD

 

[PJV3]

Interesting point I saw raised earlier is that this is actually the culmination of an earlier gamble by Osborne which didn't really pay off, specifically hoping for another coalition government in which he could bargain away his promised welfare cuts.

Nick Clegg's reign of destruction continues.

Then they say he went hard on the cuts to make labour look like spendaholics, a lot of politics and very little economics for a Chancellor of the exchequer either way.

 

[tomtom94]

Tom Newton Dunn ✔ ‎@tnewtondunn
Treasury swiftly clarifying Crabb declaration on welfare cuts. Doesn't at all mean no more cuts in this parliament, just none planned. Ah.


Tim Farron ✔ ‎@timfarron
If there are to be no more welfare cuts, that's good, but that must mean the end of the fiscal charter, so chancellor surely has to resign

 

[Jezbollah]

Been watching BBC Parliament for the last couple of hours. Both Stephen Crabb and Owen Smith have done a good job.

 

[CharmingCharlie]

I have to confess I got a chuckle or two out of this :-

A new poll could see Chancellor George Osborne renamed Cunty McCuntface after it was hijacked by mischievous members of the public.

With over 500,000 people having declared their preference for Cunty McCuntface in the poll, it seems inevitable that the Chancellor will be renamed.

http://newsthump.com/2016/03/21/new-online-poll-could-see-george-osborne-renamed-cunty-mccuntface/

The name comes about due to an online poll to name a new science ship, the top name is "Boaty McBoat" (just incase no one has heard of this).