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[FunkyMunkey]

We've got Marines, gunships, and A-10's enroute too. We're going to pull a Kuwait on Gaddafi's forces, mark my words. We aren't done until the rebels win. And once the rebels win, the oil will flow again.

Your obsession with calling this solely a strike for oil confuses me.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-gas-prices/2011/03/18/ABaUtbQB_story.html

"Libya is not a big enough global oil supplier for the battles there to have a meaningful effect on gas prices. In the 1970s and early 1980s, Libya was a major U.S. supplier, selling us around 700,000 barrels of oil per day. But today, we import less than 50,000 barrels per day from Libya — a tiny fraction of the 9.2 million barrels per day the United States imported in 2010. Worldwide, the story is no different: Of the 86 million barrels consumed globally each day, less than 2 percent come from Moammar Gaddafi’s regime.

So why are gas prices up? Though Gaddafi’s fate is largely irrelevant to the oil market, unrest throughout the greater Middle East is not. The Persian Gulf region produces almost 24 million barrels of oil per day, more than 25 percent of global oil consumption. The Arab spring that has brought protests to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen makes markets nervous, and when markets fret over a possible disruption to oil supplies, gas prices rise — whether the disruption materializes or not."

Also to note, why does it surprise you that a country, under reform, would try and and continue to export... one of their top exports? This isn't some crazy scheme of a rebel with an ak-47 in a pickup truck selling oil for cash. This is a country trying to remain stable during a regime change, of course they're going to see to it that their income doesn't cease. Your worry should be aimed at the fact that the entire world is still relying heavily on oil and alternative energy takes a back seat, not trying to pin international aid to a small country killing citizens as an oil-grab. Of course the oil adds interest to the area, but not 100% of it.

 

[nyong]

The minute Obama puts ground troops on the ground is the minute he can almost kiss his presidency goodbye.

He doesn't need ground forces. The Highway of Death was basically a bunch of A-10s strafing tanks with depleted uranium bullets. We can decimate his entire force from the air. The are ground troops in the Marine division heading over, but alot of those are in a supporting role (aircraft support, etc), although there are ground troops amongst them. I don't think that ground troops are part of whatever they've got cooked up, though.

 

[nyong]

You obsession with calling this solely a strike for oil confuses me.

Libya is one of the top 10 oil rich countries in the world, and France is one of their biggest importers. France is also one of our allies, one of whom we screwed by invading Iraq.

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/02/chart-top-importers-of-libyan-oil/71619/

 

[FunkyMunkey]

Libya is one of the top 10 oil rich countries in the world, and France is one of their biggest importers. France is also one of our allies, one of whom we screwed by invading Iraq.

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/02/chart-top-importers-of-libyan-oil/71619/

As the comment states:

"Context, there must always be context What percentage of Italy's oil imports come from Libya?"

What % of France's oil is from Libya? Taking the biggest piece of a tiny pie changes the meaning and impact of that pie chart.

 

[empty vessel]

Fair enough. If you want to talk about political "pull" I suppose the US doesn't run the show. Only from a financial/operational point of view. Also: France is trying to prevent instability in Libya for the same reason they were so pissed off about Iraq. Yes, it's the oil. It's no coincidence that the media was reporting today that the rebels are already in talks to restart oil exports.

Ha, this is rich. You are correct to look for actual strategic interests as motivating intervention, but you don't find any irony in your drastically different opinions about Libya and Iraq. The US-led invasion of Iraq, you insisted, had nothing to do with oil, but Libya does? Or is your position that only the sovereign nation of France acts based on interests concerning access to oil? That last question is not rhetorical, given your posting history.

 

[nyong]

What % of France's oil is from Libya?.

I have no idea, but it doesn't really matter for my point. Suffice to say, it's FAR more significant for them than the 0.5% we're getting. France has had to dip into their oil stocks since the exports stopped. I'd say whatever it is, it's significant.

 

[nyong]

Ha, this is rich. You are correct to look for actual strategic interests as motivating intervention, but you don't find any irony in your drastically different opinions about Libya and Iraq. The US-led invasion of Iraq, you insisted, had nothing to do with oil, but Libya does? Or is your position that only the sovereign nation of France acts based on interests concerning access to oil? That last question is not rhetorical, given your posting history.

I never said that Iraq had nothing to do with oil. It had everything to do with oil. The only thing I've argued is that 1) the 500k children who died under Oil for Food (!) made sanctions at best just as immoral as invasion, and 2) Bush and Rumsfeld screwed it up by not listening to their military advisors, among other problems. I do think that the French were as pissed off as they were solely because they had alot to lose with Iraq instability. Children might have been dying left and right under the sanctions, but at least their oil was secure. Who's winning the bids now? China?

EDIT: Now if you're talking about me criticizing the "No Blood for Oil" people, I have done that. We didn't go in there to pillage Iraqi resources, but our interest in the Middle East in general is very much connected to oil. Just to clarify here too, there were other factors in the decision to invade (although our general interest with Iraq was tied to oil): no-fly zone over a decade old with no end in sight, assassination plot against GWB's father, honest but stupid belief in WMDs, inspectors given the run-around for years contributing to our collective intelligence failures seeing as most people thought Saddam had WMDs...at least, right up until the war was inevitable. Etc.

However, I don't doubt that, like Libya, Bush Jr. was hoping was a stable, democratic and oil-contract friendly Iraq. Really, his motivations are no different than NATOs with Libya in this sense. Does this make the invasion morally wrong, though? Not IMO, because the status quo was just as bad, if not worse in some ways. I truly believe that on some level Bush believed he was doing the right thing by removing Saddam.

 

[SouthernDragon]

Can't we accidentally drop a satellite on him?

 

[RustyNails]

Can't we accidentally drop a satellite on him?

He lives in a civilian compound. Last time we did that, we accidentally killed his adopted two year old daughter.

 

[leroidys]

At best Libya is about doing the right thing for the wrong reasons. I have no doubt the motivation is almost entirely economic as instability has literally stopped oil exports. Not to mention the fact that--despite claims to the contrary--we really are participating in regime change. We've openly declared we want the dictator out and every time Gaddafi looks to gain ground against the rebels (legit ground, this is essentially a civil war) we obliterate his forces, then step back and declare "We're protecting lives, not overthrowing Gaddafi"...it's akin to your little brother getting into a fight, and you, after declaring you won't fight your brother's fights for him, knock the other guy senseless every time he tries to get up, but let your brother throw the last punch. Clearly you've picked a side.

We've got Marines, gunships, and A-10's enroute too. We're going to pull a Kuwait on Gaddafi's ground forces, mark my words. We aren't done until the rebels win. And once the rebels win, the oil will flow again.

This is a very specious argument. The way to ensure a supply of oil is to back the government and put down the rebels.

 

[[Nintex]]

Dutch media reports that government forces have regained control of Ras Lanuf:
http://www.nu.nl/algemeen/2480124/kaddafi-herovert-ras-lanuf.html

I honestly don't think the rebels can win the war against Gaddafi.

 

[nubbe]

Nope, the rebels are not organized enough.

Time for a land invasion.
Lets liberate them as if it's 2003

 

[HawksEye]

The rebels have moved so fast thinking that the collation was giving them air support all the way to Tripoli, but it seems the collation wants to send a message that they are not there as an air support for them.

And the guys on the ground need to learn some discipline, they are really hard headed lol (I think its because they are weary of former Gaddafi soldiers)

 

[HawksEye]

Goverment use of land-mines in Libya confirmed (Human Rights Watch)

 

[Igor Antunov]

Rebels have been pushed out of Ras Lanuf and are retreating further eastwards towards good old Brega.

Reports coming in that they were in fact flanked during their ill-conceived drive towards sirt.

It seems gaddafi was luring them in to surround and destroy them, and judging by the hasty retreat they did indeed get severely bloodied.

The rebels have also been placing landmines east of Ras Lanuf.

 

[HawksEye]

The rebels have also been placing landmines east of Ras Lanuf.

Where did you get that from? the landmines were found by the rebels according to Human Rights Watch.

 

[Igor Antunov]

Oh my...

http://mathaba.net/news/?x=626278

No wonder this 'popular' rebellion flourished and is ultimately based in the east. These guys in pickup trucks are jihadists. The very same who fought and continue to fight coalition forces in iraq and afghanistan.

Further info:

Libyan rebels’ Islamist ties cause concern: report

A Canadian intelligence report written in late 2009 called the anti-Gaddafi stronghold of eastern Libya an “epicentre of Islamist extremism” and said “extremist cells” operated in the region, now being defended by a Canadian-led NATO coalition.

The report by the government’s Integrated Threat Assessment Centre said “several Islamist insurgent groups” were based in eastern Libya and mosques in Benghazi were urging followers to fight in Iraq.

“Within the region, the population holds more conservative views compared to the rest of Libya and Islamist activism is strongly concentrated,” said the report labelled ‘‘secret’’ and released to the National Post under the Access to Information Act.

Concerns about the composition of the rebels began to surface Tuesday as the U.S., Britain, and Qatar said they would consider arming the rebels and NATO was to take charge of the coalition air campaign over Libya.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/wo...+ties+cause+concern+report/4524753/story.html

 

[Funky Papa]

Oh my...

Yes, amazing site that one.

MATHABA WORLD EXCLUSIVE: RUSSIAN EXPERT CONFIRMS NUKES BENEATH NEW YORK WTC

 

[GaimeGuy]

lol @ that site

 

[Igor Antunov]

Yes, amazing site that one.

MATHABA WORLD EXCLUSIVE: RUSSIAN EXPERT CONFIRMS NUKES BENEATH NEW YORK WTC

I provided another source, and that site, whatever it's legitimacy, is simply using a 2007 report. Those graphs ain't made up.

Nice try though.

Step 1- discredit messenger (in this case that site)
Step 2- ignore sources (in this case Us and Canadian governments)
Step 3- ignore message (eastern libya is infested with jihadist elements)
Step 4- profit?

 

[Bulbo Urethral Baggins]

I provided another source, and that site, whatever it's legitimacy, is simply using a 2007 report. Those graphs ain't made up.

Nice try though.

Step 1- discredit messenger (in this case that site)
Step 2- ignore sources (in this case Us and Canadian governments)
Step 3- ignore message (eastern libya is infested with jihadist elements)
Step 4- profit?

You are correct that the "attack the messenger" tactic is an easy way out. However, it's always best to quote the original source or at least a "mainstream" source when trying to make a point. That's from a 2007 West Point study that made some news when it was released. I'm not a big fan of the "per capita" graph as most foreign fighters in Iraq were from Saudi Arabia, but it is what it is (god I hate that saying).
There needs to be a similar study on who these Libyan rebels actually are. The jury seems to be out on this still. Anyone here with solid information on the makeup of Libyan rebels?

 

[Funky Papa]

I provided another source, and that site, whatever it's legitimacy, is simply using a 2007 report. Those graphs ain't made up.

Nice try though.

Step 1- discredit messenger (in this case that site)
Step 2- ignore sources (in this case Us and Canadian governments)
Step 3- ignore message (eastern libya is infested with jihadist elements)
Step 4- profit?

It is one thing to argue that islamists are present among the rebels, and another to claim that those against Gaddafi are jihadists as you did. Specially using information recycled by a well known 9/11 truther. Don't be silly.

 

[AlimNassor]

With Ras Lanuf gone what are the rebels going to do? They really can not win. This is sad.

 

[thekad]

You are correct that the "attack the messenger" tactic is an easy way out. However, it's always best to quote the original source or at least a "mainstream" source when trying to make a point. That's from a 2007 West Point study that made some news when it was released. I'm not a big fan of the "per capita" graph as most foreign fighters in Iraq were from Saudi Arabia, but it is what it is (god I hate that saying).
There needs to be a similar study on who these Libyan rebels actually are. The jury seems to be out on this still. Anyone here with solid information on the makeup of Libyan rebels?

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2011/04/04/110404taco_talk_anderson

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Rebels have been pushed out of Ras Lanuf and are retreating further eastwards towards good old Brega.

Reports coming in that they were in fact flanked during their ill-conceived drive towards sirt.

It seems gaddafi was luring them in to surround and destroy them, and judging by the hasty retreat they did indeed get severely bloodied.

The rebels have also been placing landmines east of Ras Lanuf.

What a mess...

There was a Beeb reporter talking about the fighting in Libya the other day, and he said that it was misleading to use military terminology to describe the rebel advances etc. Reports of them "capturing" a town almost always meant that the government forces there had been driven back or destroyed by airstrikes, leaving a vacuum for the rebels - mainly untrained, armed men in motorcars to roll in and declare victory. Unsurprising that when government forces - trained and relatively well-equipped - push back, the rebel groups collapse and flee.

At this point, it seems as though the Allied forces have a few fairly unappealing choices:

-- Get more aggressive with airstrikes, targetting anything and everything needed to completely cripple the Libyan military and governmental machines
-- Start arming and training the rebels in protected areas in the East to put them on a more even footing with the government forces
-- Go in on the ground with troops or armour in support of the rebels
-- Carry on with the air campaign in support of the rebels and hope that they start to develop into a more effective fighting force, or that Gaddafi and the government can be worn down

 

[The Librarian]

I think this article does a good job of analyzing Obama's speech.

 

[[Nintex]]

Even if we arm the rebels they'll lose they're not strong enough to beat Gadaffi's forces. They'll end up losing and Gadaffi takes the weapons. It seems like the US/EU overestimated the rebel force and underestimated Gadaffi's fighting strength.

 

[Wes]

Human Rights Watch reporting Gaddafi deploying Anti-Personnel mines

 

[Bregor]

It's a war folks, Gadaffi will use any weapon he can to win. I realize that human rights groups wish to outlaw land mines, but any military that is serious winning will use them - they are just too effective to ignore.

Gadaffi's actions are easy to understand as long as you begin with the premises that he puts great value on staying in power, and none on the life of the rebels or any other people that get in his way.

 

[YoungHav]

"My alias Gaddafi, trump type so fast can't copy, 6'2" and cocky quick to hit ya bitch if she jock me!" -- Gaddafi in 1996 on AEOM.

Man I am annoyed at this situation. I wonder where it's going to head. LOL how is Fox News handling the fact that we are arming Al-Queda? Sean Hannity's orgasm must have woken his household up.

 

[GaimeGuy]

So fox and the republicans go from "Why isn't the president doing anything?" to "The president is arming al-quaeda"

It's been said before, but this entire situation is proof that republicans will oppose whatever obama does.

 

[Inflammable Slinky]

So fox and the republicans go from "Why isn't the president doing anything?" to "The president is arming al-quaeda"

It's been said before, but this entire situation is proof that republicans will oppose whatever obama does.

something something democrats supporting whatever obama does something something

 

[Zenith]

another interesting tidbit, in 2007 France was about to put pen to paper to sell Gaddafi 14 Rafale jets before they bailed and went with the super-cheap MiGs.

Aside from the added risk of having something almost on par with the Eurofighter in their arsenal, imagine the embarrassment of having French planes shooting down French planes splashed all over the media.

something something democrats supporting whatever obama does something something

oh please. It's disingenuous to pretend that anyone, anywhere has come close to the Republican's contrarianism.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

Looks like the U.S. and U.N. pick and choose their fights.

 

[Inflammable Slinky]

another interesting tidbit, in 2007 France was about to put pen to paper to sell Gaddafi 14 Rafale jets before they bailed and went with the super-cheap MiGs.

Aside from the added risk of having something almost on par with the Eurofighter in their arsenal, imagine the embarrassment of having French planes shooting down French planes splashed all over the media.



oh please. It's disingenuous to pretend that anyone, anywhere has come close to the Republican's contrarianism.

Even so, there are alot of democrats embracing foreign intervention for the sake of stopping bad bad people.

We've kinda got a shitty track record on that regard!

 

[maharg]

I don't really want to comment on this discussion, but:

This is just about the dumbest most useless graph I've ever seen. Each bar is on a different per-capita scale. Who the fuck does that. This is 9 graphs with a single data point, not 1 graph with 9 data points.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Aside from the added risk of having something almost on par with the Eurofighter in their arsenal, imagine the embarrassment of having French planes shooting down French planes splashed all over the media.

They already have a bunch of older French Mirage F1s, 2 of them defected to Malta before this kicked off. I guess the other ones were high up on the list of targets.

 

[AlimNassor]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12906562

Brega has fallen? Now what?

 

[mr. puppy]

Oh my...

http://mathaba.net/news/?x=626278

[/url]

 

[RustyNails]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12906562

Brega has fallen? Now what?

ABANDON YOUR POSTS! FLEEEEEEEEE FOR YOUR LIIIIIIIIIIIIIIVES!

 

[Luckyman]

http://twitter.com/reuters/status/53193576359788544

FM bailout

 

[Ignis Fatuus]

http://twitter.com/reuters/status/53193576359788544

FM bailout

So the Musa-Kusa-Runs-For-His-Life rumors were true.

He's a well known dick but it's good to know that Gaddafi's inner circle is jumping ship.

 

[DECK'ARD]

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wo...Defects_From_Gaddafi_Regime_And_Arrives_In_UK

Libya's Foreign Minister 'Defects To UK'

Libya's foreign minister Musa Kusa has defected to the UK, saying he is "no longer willing" to represent Col Gaddafi's regime.

The Foreign Office confirmed Musa Kusa had travelled to Britain of his own free will and was resigning his post - a further blow to the dictator's grip on power.
It said he had arrived on a plane from Tunisia and was "no longer willing" to represent the dictator's regime.
"We can confirm that Musa Kusa arrived at Farnborough Airport on March 30 from Tunisia," a spokesman said.
"He travelled here under his own free will. He has told us that he is resigning his post. We are discussing this with him and we will release further detail in due course.
"Musa Kusa is one of the most senior figures in Gaddafi's government and his role was to represent the regime internationally - something that he is no longer willing to do.
"We encourage those around Gaddafi to abandon him and embrace a better future for Libya that allows political transition and real reform that meets the aspirations of the Libyan people."
Questions were earlier raised about Mr Kusa's whereabouts after he headed for London on a flight from Tunisia.
A Libyan government spokesman later said he had not defected and was on a "diplomatic mission", but declined to say where he was going. Libya's deputy foreign minister Khalid Kaim dismissed the reports as "nonsense".
Noman Benotman, a friend of Mr Kusa and analyst at Britain's Quilliam think-tank, told Reuters news agency: "He wasn't happy at all. He doesn't support the Government attacks on civilians."

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20110330/twl-obama-ordered-secret-cia-missions-in-3fd0ae9.html

CIA agents have been authorised to carry out covert missions to help rebel forces keen to oust Libyan leader Colonel Gaddafi, according to reports.

President Barack Obama is said to have signed an order - known as a "finding" - for the secret operations in the past two or three weeks.

It came to light after US officials spoke to reporters following a briefing with senior members of the Obama administration, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The CIA and the White House have declined to comment.

However, it emerged after Libya's rebel forces were forced out of the key oil town of Ras Lanuf by a barrage of tank and artillery fire from troops loyal to Colonel Gaddafi.

Anti-government fighters retreated by 100 miles in just a few hours as Nato planes bombarded Col Gaddafi's forces.

In the latest blow to morale for the outgunned insurgents, they have have been driven back from positions they had occupied in the past few days, including Bin Jawad.

Some fighters, mostly armed with light weapons and riding on 4x4 pick-ups, said they had been overwhelmed by the superior firepower and range of Gaddafi's weaponry.

Sky's security editor Sam Kiley said the rebels lost Ras Lanuf because the coalition was reluctant to carry out airstrikes on troops loyal to Col Gaddafi.

In Tripoli, Sky's Jeremy Thompson said Gaddafi supporters had been heard celebrating the dramatic reversal of fortune.

 

[j_k_redtail]

So the Musa-Kusa-Runs-For-His-Life rumors were true.

He's a well known dick but it's good to know that Gaddafi's inner circle is jumping ship.

Do you have any more information about the guy? I know I've heard his name, but I can;t contextualize in specific events associated with the crisis.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

So the Musa-Kusa-Runs-For-His-Life rumors were true.

He's a well known dick but it's good to know that Gaddafi's inner circle is jumping ship.

From what little I know, hasn't he been the West's go-to guy for dealing with Gaddafi and negotiating trade etc.? Is his position in the "inner circle" being overplayed - is it just a case of him being a more moderate figure who worked well with the UK etc. and is making a move to secure his future?

 

[theignoramus]

From what little I know, hasn't he been the West's go-to guy for dealing with Gaddafi and negotiating trade etc.? Is his position in the "inner circle" being overplayed - is it just a case of him being a more moderate figure who worked well with the UK etc. and is making a move to secure his future?

He was the head of Libyan intelligence and may well have had a hand in orchestrating one or more of Gadaffi's terror attacks of the 80s. He probably knows everything worth knowing about the regime.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20110330/twl-obama-ordered-secret-cia-missions-in-3fd0ae9.html

shit just got much, much more real. I assume Libya's foreign minister will be quite the valuable source of intelligence.

 

[Ivan A Nguyen]

CIA = A-Team? I wish I could find an old post I made a week or so.

 

[RustyNails]

Do you have any more information about the guy? I know I've heard his name, but I can;t contextualize in specific events associated with the crisis.

Remember right after UN resolution 1973 was adopted, Libya announced an immediate cease-fire? Yeah, it was Mr. Koussa. He's been out of the loop ever since.

 

[HawksEye]

A well made music video of the rebels, I think its really good

The Front Line (Youtube)