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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected

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Amir0x

Banned
obamachurchreal37pja.jpg
vs.
romney.crossnewihz2n.jpg


Barack Hussein Obama v. Willard Mitt Romney
Joe Biden (VP) v. Paul Ryan (VP)

Political Positions of Barack Obama
Political Positions of Mitt Romney

v.

Jill Stein (Green Party)
Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party)

___________________________________________________________

ELECTORAL MAPS
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The first candidate to reach 270 electoral votes will win election, whether he loses the popular vote or not.

2008-election-map-nytqao91.png


This is the map as it appeared in its final form in 2008. This is considered a "landslide" in political terms. This year is expected to be significantly closer, electorally and numerically.

electoralmapblank2012qeb6n.jpg


This is the map as it appears in 2012, blank. There have been some slight modifications across the board to the electoral numbers.

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THE HOT STATES
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These are what conventional wisdom have as 'battleground states' in 2012. Although there is plenty of room to debate over where exactly the line is for something to be called a battleground. Still, for the sake of simplicity, we'll take a broad view:

battlegroundsgqo60.jpg


The people you see in the images are the Secretary of States in each battleground. Red is Republican, Blue is Democrat. In each of the red states, they have made significant strides toward attempting real voting reform, and there has been some controversy about this. That said, many of the attempts were defeated in the court. Although it probably won't effect the outcome, it may still be a good detail to have over the partisan affiliation of each state's Secretary.

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POLLS
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realclearpolls1ukh3.png


As you can see, National Polls basically have this at a razor's margin. The real dispute comes from state polls. Although after Denver Romney made some real gains, things have turned static once again and have been consistently polling + Obama for the past two weeks. On Friday, November 2, 19 out of 20 battleground state polls had Obama ahead.

So the real question is: will the polls be accurate or not? That will be part of the fun on November 6.

Polling Websites:

Real Clear Politics
Five Thirty Eight
Princeton Election Consortium

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CONGRESSIONAL RACES
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senateracesu3j2u.png


These are the races this year for the Senate. The lighter the blue color, the less safe it is for Democrats. The lighter the red color, the less safe it is for Republicans. If it is yellow, it's basically a toss-up state. There is a link below to a website that tracks the races and tells you who is going up against who, what they stand for, etc.

representativeracesjsk4b.png


These are the races for the House of Representatives. As above, the lighter the blue color, the less safe it is for Democrats. The lighter the red color, the less safe it is for Republicans. If it is yellow, it's toss-up. Check the link before for more detailed analysis.

Congressional Race Tracker:

Roll Call


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THE FINAL COUNTDOWN
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All in all, it's going to be fun. This is my last topic for a long time and since I did the Election 2008 topic, I thought I'd do this one. Let's try to be respectful of each other's opinions, because this is obviously a sensitive subject for everyone.

I'll see you guys on the other side Tuesday night.

Special thanks to cartoon_soldier for the title of this topic!
 

LuchaShaq

Banned
If Romney wins fuck y'all and I'm moving in 18 months and taking the job offer in the UK. No intent to live under a theocracy.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Excellent OP, this one is going to be interesting. I'll be voting early in the day after class gets out and then going to an election party at night to watch the coverage with friends.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Woo hoo! Here's hoping that we know before midnight!

Edit: Many folks are probably wondering when we'll know "who won?" on Election Night. So, for reference, here are the Election Night Timelines for when polls closed and when states were called for the last few Presidential elections:
2000 > http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight/pe2000elecnighttime.php
2004 > http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2004/pe2004elecnighttime.php
2008 > http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php

Cheers!
 
Democrats will win cuz, as we all know, they like to vote early and vote often! LOL!

Edit:

I was just joking, but I hope we don't have to deal with too much voter fraud BS after the election. I can only imagine how my family will react.
 

rdrr gnr

Member
Love the subtitle. I don't think it will much of an election -- but I'll be monitoring Twitter and my favorite pundits.
 

mr. puppy

Banned
is this poligaf again or can i assume that people here aren't complete out of their minds


edit: WTF @ the pictures of them in front of crosses
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
I am more interested in the Senate and House races here in Nebraska than the National race, as I see Obama as a sure win.
 

Amir0x

Banned
is this poligaf again or can i assume that people here aren't complete out of their minds


edit: WTF @ the pictures of them in front of crosses

this is neoGAF, whose views are broadly consistent with what you find in a PoliGAF topic. So although this isn't technically PoliGAF, I'm sure if you think that's crazy, it won't be 100% different here.

Still, since this is such an important election, I'm sure many of GAFers Republicans will make an appearance here.
 

MasterShotgun

brazen editing lynx
If Ohio goes for Romney then it means that something is fundamentally flawed with basically every credible polling technique currently operating.

I know. I was mainly referring to the thought that Ohio is likely to be the decider this year. Florida going for Obama would immediately wrap it up, but I don't expect Florida to be called until after midnight at best.
 

Wes

venison crêpe
As an outside observer all this fascinates me. Looking forward to it (being over).

At what time (East coast wise as that's easier for me to calculate!) are the first Ohio exit polls likely to be released? Trying to work out what time to wake up.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Interested in Colorado marijuana legalization (not medical, full) initiative as well as Massachusetts assisted suicide initiative. Both are likely to pass based on pre-election polling.
 

kharma45

Member
I'll have fun following this in the UK, hoping for an Obama win as Romney winning just feels like it's gonna be bad for the whole planet.

Still, at least he'd be a regular feature on Have I Got News For You like Dubya was.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Interested in Colorado marijuana legalization (not medical, full) initiative as well as Massachusetts assisted suicide initiative. Both are likely to pass based on pre-election polling.

oh that's what I forgot, an overview of the important initiatives that may pass across the country

I am most interested in the gay marriage initiatives and, as you said, marijuana legalization.
 

Chris R

Member
I wonder how big the meltdown will be when Obama wins.

Might be huge if he doesn't get the popular vote as well. Local talk radio shows have already begun the spin though, claiming vote machine fraud, illegal tactics by the Dems, ect. Plays really well in this 100% Romney safe state.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Ewing and Kerry!

LOL. Those ads Kerry and the Pro-Dem Super PACs are running against Kerry are dirrrrrty. And the Pro GOP Super PACs seem clueless on how to respond. I am interested to see if Fischer pulls it out or not.

I just can't see Lee Terry losing, though. I know that bastard pushed for that PROTECT-IP act before finally backing down, too.
 
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