And anyone who's *that* religious is almost certainly so radicalized for the Republican party that I'm sure they'd make a huge retroactive decree from God that it's suddenly A-OK to vote on the sabbath if the need arose.
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United States Election: Nov 6, 2012 |OT| - Barack Obama Re-elected
- Thread starter Amir0x
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And anyone who's *that* religious is almost certainly so radicalized for the Republican party that I'm sure they'd make a huge retroactive decree from God that it's suddenly A-OK to vote on the sabbath if the need arose.
speculawyer
Member
With gay marriage, states can do whatever they want.
With pot, it is muddled. Pot is illegal everywhere under Federal law. States can legalize pot as much as they want but it is still illegal under Federal law. However, since most law enforcement is local (police, sheriffs, etc.), the states can tell them not to spend their time & money going after pot users. Thus, only Federal law enforcement will go after pot. Thus, pot clubs & dispensaries can operate w/o being hassled by local police. But the Feds bust them when they want to. It is very weird really.
Yup. I live in the Seattle area, and I don't know a single person who is voting against either one. That's the type of vote you would lose friends over here.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Obama wins all the swing states(NC to WI and everything inbetween)
Popular vote: 52-46-2(rounded to closest integer)
Senate: 55 Dem/Indy seats with AZ, NE, NV being toss-ups.
House: Dems gain 22 seats +/- 5 seats.
Posting my prediction from a few days ago in PoliGAF and sticking with it.
Popular vote: 52-46-2(rounded to closest integer)
Senate: 55 Dem/Indy seats with AZ, NE, NV being toss-ups.
House: Dems gain 22 seats +/- 5 seats.
Posting my prediction from a few days ago in PoliGAF and sticking with it.
speculawyer
Member
Yeah, I've been shocked how much strict beliefs fall to the wayside for political expediency. Billy Graham classified Mormonism as a cult for decades. When Romney became the nominee suddenly this long-held sacred theological view changed and all references to Mormonism as a cult disappeared from his website.
Boom. Religion is officially a joke. There is no sacred anything. It evolves just like life evolves. Don't tell me gay marriage or abortion is evil when you can change other things at the drop of a hat.
Well, we're about 36 hours away from the start of voting at Dixville Notch, NH. They're a small town that votes at midnight on Election Day. It's an odd little custom that we watch every four years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch,_New_Hampshire
They tend to lean Republican, but they went for Obama last time around.
Some recent results:
2008:
Obama - 15
McCain - 6
2004:
Bush - 19
Kerry - 7
2000:
Bush - 21
Gore - 5
Nader - 1
1996:
Dole - 18
Clinton - 8
Browne - 1
Perot - 1
Other than Dixville Notch, we'll probably have to wait another 20 hours after that. So, all in all, we should start to get return numbers in about 55, 56 hours.
You are super-smart, informed, and helpful as always. Thanks.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
Yep. I have the opposite, actually. My bet partner actually decided for me, since he bet on Obama, but I felt that Romney has a decent enough chance to win that I took that bet.
LOLwut?
R74 has been polling ahead here for the last 7 months. It's at 56% yes now. It's a done deal. It's going to pass.
$5k on Obama at Intrade. I bought in at just over $6/share, so I stand to make over $3000 if he wins.
For the record, no one's actually heard from Billy Graham on this, and it might not mean much even if we had. Dude's ancient and probably not all there, and has some record (when he was competent and doing things in public) of staying out of this kind of thing. His son Franklin Graham (who's historically been very openly supportive of Republicans) runs everything now and it's only through him that we've heard what Billy Graham does or doesn't think about Mormonism or Mitt Romney.
speculawyer
Member
OK then, Franklin Graham. Which is just more evidence . . . the son is taking over the reigns of the family BUSINESS.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think the good guys could sweep marriage this year. WA and ME look solid, Obama's endorsement gave it a boost in MD and PPP's poll of MN gives me hope.
This is something of a final frontier for the anti-marriage folks, so we'll see how that works out for them.
This is something of a final frontier for the anti-marriage folks, so we'll see how that works out for them.
In my work for r-74, there were some folks in the Seattle area that were against it, but of course they were clear republicans or so. But for the most part yeah, its a massive majority. I mean hell, we have Capitol Hill.
It also takes a key argument away from any Supreme Court case against marriage equality.
For comparison, when the Loving ruling was handed down in 1967, the percentage of Americans opposing interracial marriage was somewhere around 72%.
We're right on the cusp. I think that if most of these ballot measures pass, Justice Kennedy will likely tip into our favor. He probably knows in his heart of hearts that this is all but a done deal, but to see the trend demonstrated so perfectly on the ballot measure tally could seal him for us.
I'm more interested to see what Roberts does. He surely knows it's inevitable as well and might not want to go down in history as the Chief Justice who voted against it.
Hah, the right would absolutely froth at the mouth in anger if he both upheld the ACA and then voted for marriage equality. I think that's the one thing that could be more delicious than Obama winning this election.
don't forget that federal matching funds and grants can and are withheld to state enforcement if they look the other way on pot. the feds do a lot more than just raiding dispensaries and prosecuting.
speculawyer lowers the boom!
marijuana rights, rofl
Yeah, one of my biggest disappointments with this administration. Their position makes no sense, pragmatically or politically.
I'm cautiously optimistic for a sweep. It would be GLORIOUS. We still need an MD poll, though.
Here's a really good primer on sample polling and how Nate Silver's model works:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/01/1153661/-Nate-Silver-s-Math-Based-Math
I really liked this line:
A few months ago it was "recuse", a word so obscure that NeoGAF's spellchecker calls it a typo. Lately it's "oversampling". What will it be on Wednesday, I wonder?
You can rofl all you want, since it's just a bunch of hippies smoking pot, but at its heart is a fairly meaningful and important personal rights issue.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/01/1153661/-Nate-Silver-s-Math-Based-Math
I really liked this line:
A few months ago it was "recuse", a word so obscure that NeoGAF's spellchecker calls it a typo. Lately it's "oversampling". What will it be on Wednesday, I wonder?
You can rofl all you want, since it's just a bunch of hippies smoking pot, but at its heart is a fairly meaningful and important personal rights issue.
recuse is an obscure word?
SouthernDragon
Member
A highschool friend of mine is actively arguing that the measures done to curtail voting in Florida is totally cool because "people can just commute to their voting station" and "that's what election day is for anyways".
What the FUCK.
What the FUCK.
Yes. Well, sufficiently obscure that I'm 99% certain that the average Fox News viewer didn't know what the hell it meant prior to NFIB v. Sebelius, at which point every couch-conservative and his dog was suddenly an expert on why Justice Kagan needed to recuse herself from the ruling.
polyh3dron
Banned
First it was the liberal media, now it's the liberal polls.
The American right wing moves further and further away from reality which is why the saying goes that reality has a liberal bias.
el retorno
Member
I'm gonna have to disagree with you there. Old white people are scared of weed. It makes sense politically.
I'll agree with you on the marijuana issue but i still cant get over the Nate Silver humping here and on the left in general. And links to dailyKoS to back it up to boot. It's like saying Romney will win because I heard on Hannity this week that...
I'm really curious to know what's going to happen when it's time for polls to close and there are still thousands in line.
Because its going to happen.
"And here... we... go."
That ain't cool.
rohlfinator
Member
That would be a fair comparison only if Silver was also pulling his numbers from the deep recesses of Sean Hannity's colon.
GregLombardi
Member
I still don't get how in 2012 we can still have a voting situation that can't handle hundreds of thousands of voters. It's so stupid. Digitize it and be done with it.
What happened in 2008 when the polls closed? Were a lot of people turned away?
What happened in 2008 when the polls closed? Were a lot of people turned away?
Dude Abides
Banned
When i poll-watched in PA the guidance was that everyone in line as of the time if closes is entitled to stay and vote - the place has to stay open until they've all voted.
The law may be different elsewhere.
SouthernDragon
Member
They still get to vote. Miami-Dade's election board (run by Republicans) tried to shut down voting, then got stopped hard by the outrage. Now the ruling is that everyone in line by 5 PM gets to vote.
SteveWinwood
Member
This is what I've always heard.
Escape Goat
Member
Why is Nate Silver in the spotlight this year? I missed out on that.
Wafflecakes
Member
Cus he is awesome. That is all.
He was fairly well-known online already, but what really threw him into the spotlight was the Streisand effect, as GOP commentators talked about him a lot and how stupid/biased/gay his numbers are.
Then FL might still be voting until after midnight.
I think anyone hoping it gets called Tuesday can abandon all hope of that.
Nate Silver is one of the leading statistics minds in the world right now. Hannity is some guy with a show on Fox.
If you want Obama to win, he's the guy telling you there's a 70% + chance it will happen.
He did well in 2008, not so much in 2010.
I thought he did well in 2010
NekoFever
Member
The one on Rapture Ready.
He did. It's Dash. (And it makes sense -- if you think Romney will win because it's going to be 2010 again, you need to get around the fact that 538 showed a large Republican victory in 2010 and shows the opposite today. Easiest way, as always, is lying.)
SteveWinwood
Member
Not really. You get Ohio and something else, who cares really, Colorado and Virginia or something and it's over anyway. Florida doesn't even really have to come into the equation just to reach 270.
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