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Valve's fake, rigged, waste of time Progress Quest troll Portal 2 ARG

Drkirby

Corporate Apologist
EmCeeGramr said:
Clearly Valve should have never announced Portal 2 and left it to be a surprise at the end of an ARG.
"Boy, I don't know what it is, but I am going to place a preorder on 'Unspecified Valve Product', maybe it will be Alien Swarm 2!"
 

FStop7

Banned
I still think this whole thing is scripted. /cynical

But if that's the case then I'm sure we'll get Portal 2 early. It's just that the effort put in for this final phase of the ARG had no direct impact. /silverlining
 
I think what's especially shitty about this ARG is that absolutely no effort was made to keep the forth wall intact, and it was already broken from the beginning. I mean, look at the page we're all staring at now- it's supposed to "computational grid status" page, and it has a picture of vines running down the side, 14 links to Steam, and a huge banner at the top that explicitly tells you what you're supposed to buy.

Instead of all this stupid potato crap they should have had it so it looked as if GlaDOS was "infecting" your Steam client and causing some of your games to become corrupt (portal content in the indie games). At least then the marketing wouldn't have seemed quite as gimmicky.
 
BuddhaRockstar said:
I think what's especially shitty about this ARG is that absolutely no effort was made to keep the forth wall intact, and it was already broken from the beginning. I mean, look at the page we're all staring at now- it's supposed to "computational grid status" page, and it has a picture of vines running down the side, 14 links to Steam, and a huge banner at the top that explicitly tells you what you're supposed to buy.

Instead of all this stupid potato crap they should have had it so it looked as if GlaDOS was "infecting" your Steam client and causing some of your games to become corrupt (portal content in the indie games). At least then the marketing wouldn't have seemed quite as gimmicky.

I have to admit, that would have been pretty badass.
 

Fredescu

Member
TheExodu5 said:
Again:

[graph]
For someone who hasn't been following this at all, what's the significance of this graph? Should the blue line have jumped after each completion? Or should the blue line have been getting gradually steeper rather than going straight?
 

scogoth

Member
Fredescu said:
For someone who hasn't been following this at all, what's the significance of this graph? Should the blue line have jumped after each completion? Or should the blue line have been getting gradually steeper rather than going straight?

Means the jokes on us.
 
Valve fucked up, we get it bros.

They're a good company that openly talks about the things they can do better. They'll get it right next time. I'm sure most of them are probably looking at this end part and thinking it's coming off much worse than they assumed it would.
 

Tanolen

Member
Fredescu said:
For someone who hasn't been following this at all, what's the significance of this graph? Should the blue line have jumped after each completion? Or should the blue line have been getting gradually steeper rather than going straight?

The release time is constant despite all the other variables.
 
Fredescu said:
For someone who hasn't been following this at all, what's the significance of this graph? Should the blue line have jumped after each completion? Or should the blue line have been getting gradually steeper rather than going straight?

In theory, the blue line should have been largely affected by the green line.

but considering we dont' know how it works (how potatoes affect things, when they sample the CPUs, if there is a minimum movement or maximum movement etc) there is a lot up in the air about what the graphs actually mean from a correlation/causation view
 
Well, there goes the possibility of 75% overall progress being the milestone we're waiting/hoping for.

What's left? 500k and the 24 hour mark? lol
 

morningbus

Serious Sam is a wicked gahbidge series for chowdaheads.
Fredescu said:
For someone who hasn't been following this at all, what's the significance of this graph? Should the blue line have jumped after each completion? Or should the blue line have been getting gradually steeper rather than going straight?

I'll try to explain what's been going on this weekend.

We've all been like:



And Valve has been all like:

 

Twig

Banned
EmCeeGramr said:
Clearly Valve should have never announced Portal 2 and left it to be a surprise at the end of an ARG.
That actually would have been amazing, but I wonder how different the sales would be.

Although, what with retailers, it's not like they could actually keep it a secret.

BuddhaRockstar said:
I think what's especially shitty about this ARG is that absolutely no effort was made to keep the forth wall intact, and it was already broken from the beginning. I mean, look at the page we're all staring at now- it's supposed to "computational grid status" page, and it has a picture of vines running down the side, 14 links to Steam, and a huge banner at the top that explicitly tells you what you're supposed to buy.

Instead of all this stupid potato crap they should have had it so it looked as if GlaDOS was "infecting" your Steam client and causing some of your games to become corrupt (portal content in the indie games). At least then the marketing wouldn't have seemed quite as gimmicky.
Your argument is completely valid, except for the fact that everything leading up to this weekend has been awesome. Could it have been more awesome? Without a doubt - your suggestion to infect the Steam client is a pretty creative one - but that doesn't diminish the good things that have been done here.
 

Weenerz

Banned
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
Valve fucked up, we get it bros.

They're a good company that openly talks about the things they can do better. They'll get it right next time. I'm sure most of them are probably looking at this end part and thinking it's coming off much worse than they assumed it would.



I agree with 99.5% of what you said, but I don't agree with the word "assumed", so I will take that .5% off.
 

Jintor

Member
Revolutionary said:
Well, there goes the possibility of 75% overall progress being the milestone we're waiting/hoping for.

What's left? 500k and the 24 hour mark? lol

I bet at 100% overall progress the game will unlock!!1!!1!1!!!!
 

Twig

Banned
Liu Kang Baking A Pie said:
Valve fucked up, we get it bros.

They're a good company that openly talks about the things they can do better. They'll get it right next time. I'm sure most of them are probably looking at this end part and thinking it's coming off much worse than they assumed it would.
*brofist*

Weenerz said:
I agree with 99.5% of what you said, but I don't agree with the word "assumed", so I will take that .5% off.
What about it don't you agree with? The usage of the word seems perfectly valid to me. (I am legitimately confused/curious.)
 

Weenerz

Banned
Twig said:
*brofist*


What about it don't you agree with? The usage of the word seems perfectly valid to me. (I am legitimately confused/curious.)

You son of a bitch, you dare question my maths? I shall cut 3/4th of your hair and 1/2 of a toenail in my ultimate revenge plot. I also think I am 1002% crazy.
 

Twig

Banned
Weenerz said:
You son of a bitch, you dare question my maths? I shall cut 3/4th of your hair and 1/2 of a toenail in my ultimate revenge plot. I also think I am 1002% crazy.
I laughed out loud.

Then it hit me what your name was and I actually laughed again.

(I also get it now. Thirty or so pages of 99% of the posters in this thread being 100% serious 83% percent of the time conditioned me to fall for it. ;_;)
 
Pardon my late-night ramblings, but could it be that the disappointment a lot of us are experiencing was planned by Valve. Make the user base feel completely hopeless in completing the bar and give up hope, but then at the very last minute release a "special" surprise that makes up for all the pain.

L4D
3!
 

Hylian7

Member
Lasthope106 said:
Pardon my late-night ramblings, but could it be that the disappointment a lot of us are experiencing was planned by Valve. Make the user base feel completely hopeless in completing the bar and give up hope, but then at the very last minute release a "special" surprise that makes up for all the pain.

L4D
3!
Better yet, we get a trailer, that starts out with a pile of corpses, and one of them is holding up 3 fingers. Then it slowly zooms out and shows Alyx Vance.
 

Twig

Banned
Botolf said:
Oh, hey, it's this thing again. And a page back, too. I guess my objections about examining the wide scope of data and taking into account all factors have remained ignored.
Silence. He clearly knows best. Cynicism will rule this thread, or he'll die trying!
 

JaseC

gave away the keys to the kingdom.
Kritz said:
In 27 hours it will be ~6pm on Tuesday.

I am fine with that as the release time.

Didn't you get the memo? Friday or bust!

To the Timemachinemobile!
 

Spire

Subconscious Brolonging
Pardon my late-night ramblings, but could it be that the disappointment a lot of us are experiencing was planned by Valve. Make the user base feel completely hopeless in completing the bar and give up hope, but then at the very last minute release a "special" surprise that makes up for all the pain.

While I wouldn't be surprised at all if they announced something at the end of all this, I highly doubt they planned for their fan base to be disappointed.

I also love all the people who seem to have forgotten that the Potato Sack actually has games in it. Most people bought it before the countdown thing was even known, because it's a great fucking deal and the new Portal-themed content is rad.
 

Weenerz

Banned
I already requested a refund for my 2-pack from Valve, I'd rather go to a midnight launch and get the game instead of waiting for it to unlock with Valve time. So sad =(
 

Kritz

Banned
I'd be annoyed if Portal 2 did release less than 24 hours away, tbh. I like Australian-advantage releases. Right as I finish uni.
 
Kritz said:
I'd be annoyed if Portal 2 did release less than 24 hours away, tbh. I like Australian-advantage releases. Right as I finish uni.

I bought the preorder in a rush on Thursday expecting it to come out friday/saturday. Sigh.
 

JaseC

gave away the keys to the kingdom.
Spire said:
I also love all the people who seem to have forgotten that the Potato Sack actually has games in it. Most people bought it before the countdown thing was even known, because it's a great fucking deal and the new Portal-themed content is rad.

This is why I find the comparisons to Twitter/Facebook/Whatthefuck-athons somewhat disingenuous. In those scenarios the only companies that benefit at all are those that set up the shenanigans (e.g. EA with the 1m "likes" requirement for the BF3 trailer) and the host social network (e.g. Facebook). In this scenario with Valve, in addition to themselves (which is where a lot of the cynicism stems from, understandably), you have 10 indie developers who have no doubt seen a huge rise in sales and will profit greatly from that.

Also, you can bet that Valve will actually learn from the backlash this final leg of the ARG has received.
 

Hylian7

Member
I just ran some interesting numbers, not sure if they've been ran before by someone else, but it proves two things.

1. Potatoes are definitely doing nothing right now.
2. We will have to fill all the progress bars for the games to fill up the main progress bar.

Now allow me to explain my calculations:

At the time of this posting, this was the data I was going off of:

20hkjr5.png


Now given that, I used an OpenOffice.org Calc spreadsheet to make this calculation:

20ayzhw.png


75.304% is pretty damn close to 75.230% Now granted, we technically don't know the exact value of any of the progress bar, which is probably why there is the slight discrepancy between the two results.

The bottom line though, is that the progress we have made so far has not been affected by potatoes at all, and is only coming from what we have done with the progress bars. Obviously, we know everyone is right in the strategy of "get the easy games done first" as that will push us closer quicker and will shave more time off, if only just a small amount.

I apologize if this is old, but it's something I realized.
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
haven't played a single one of those and I'm not going to, despite owning some of em.
 

Sibylus

Banned
Yeah, second point has been arrived at before by a few people. Doesn't stop a few randoms from suggesting that the local and global bars aren't linked, though.

The potatoes are tricky, because there isn't a clear picture of what the completion rates would be like without them. AFAIK they're enabled, but not contributing enough to ramp things up significantly. High-tater CPUs probably smooth out the dips caused by varying CPU counts, but we've yet to see spectacular gains.
 

Hylian7

Member
Botolf said:
Yeah, second point has been arrived at before by a few people. Doesn't stop a few randoms from suggesting that the local and global bars aren't linked, though.

The potatoes are tricky, because there isn't a clear picture of what the completion rates would be like without them. AFAIK they're enabled, but not contributing enough to ramp things up significantly. High-tater CPUs probably smooth out the dips caused by varying CPU counts, but we've yet to see spectacular gains.
I guess if potatoes have counted as some of the hours, that would make sense, but I doubt that would be the case.
 

Blizzard

Banned
Botolf said:
Yeah, second point has been arrived at before by a few people. Doesn't stop a few randoms from suggesting that the local and global bars aren't linked, though.

The potatoes are tricky, because there isn't a clear picture of what the completion rates would be like without them. AFAIK they're enabled, but not contributing enough to ramp things up significantly. High-tater CPUs probably smooth out the dips caused by varying CPU counts, but we've yet to see spectacular gains.
One could also offer the theory that only the tater CPUs are "overclocked", meaning that the periodic variation of CPUs corresponds to normal people playing and quitting those games, while the hardcore ARG people leaves their computers idling most of the day (plus they may have already had most of the potatoes so their individual rates wouldn't increase much). If the hardcore ARG people with potatoes have much more of an effect on the rate, then the periodic CPU count going up and down might indeed not affect the overall rate.

Bla bla bla math theory stuff 2 a.m. I look forward to hopefully not being spoiled, hopefully somehow finding a few hours to play bits of the game between work and sleep, and hopefully not talking about bars and statistics for several months.
 

Kritz

Banned
ThoseDeafMutes said:
I bought the preorder in a rush on Thursday expecting it to come out friday/saturday. Sigh.
Well, yeah, shit like that sucks. I don't like how untransparent Valve have been with the end game of this arg, but it probably wouldn't have been as exciting without it.

I kinda suspect Vave wanted to release early, but at some point someone said, "wait we can't actually do this without a shitstorm"… or something.

It's disappointing, but at this point, we're only a day away anyway.
 

Blizzard

Banned
Zzoram said:
wait so there is no end payoff to this ARG?
This is the payoff. Or, there might be more hints in Portal 2, and then another week of clues, and then a timer that counts down for a week to the Episode 3 release. Once the timer expires, there will be a second timer, for a date 2 years in the future, at which point Episode 3 will be delayed further.

(or maybe not)
 

Sibylus

Banned
Hylian7 said:
I guess if potatoes have counted as some of the hours, that would make sense, but I doubt that would be the case.
Well, I don't think taters would contribute completion in and of themselves, they're multiplicative to the CPU contribution. If one was to take all CPUs offline, one would lose the potato effect as well. So it's hard to clearly separate the two.

Blizzard said:
One could also offer the theory that only the tater CPUs are "overclocked", meaning that the periodic variation of CPUs corresponds to normal people playing and quitting those games, while the hardcore ARG people leaves their computers idling most of the day (plus they may have already had most of the potatoes so their individual rates wouldn't increase much). If the hardcore ARG people with potatoes have much more of an effect on the rate, then the periodic CPU count going up and down might indeed not affect the overall rate.

Bla bla bla math theory stuff 2 a.m. I look forward to hopefully not being spoiled, hopefully somehow finding a few hours to play bits of the game between work and sleep, and hopefully not talking about bars and statistics for several months.
Yeah, this is certainly plausible, though it would probably mean the death of the global overclock idea. But in any case, not many outside of the ARG thousands will be sticking it out anyway, so either way the result will probably be the same (good or ill).
 
FYI, it's been a little over 24 hours since we've hit 50% and we're now at 75.5. If the same pace continues, this whole thing should be done by ~3AM EST tomorrow... BUT... this is really weird.

Ok, so, as it stands right now the game will launch around 4:30AM EST tomorrow, but there are six games left to finish. Assuming each game decreases the time by 40 minutes, the game could be unlocked before the ARG is even completed.

Unless I got my math wrong?
 

Red

Member
Zombie James said:
FYI, it's been a little over 24 hours since we've hit 50% and we're now at 75.5. If the same pace continues, this whole thing should be done by ~3AM EST tomorrow... BUT... this is really weird.

Ok, so, as it stands right now the game will launch around 4:30AM EST tomorrow, but there are six games left to finish. Assuming each game decreases the time by 40 minutes, the game could be unlocked before the ARG is even completed.

Unless I got my math wrong?
Not sure what you're talking about. Each game reduces the timer so the "end" of the ARG is brought closer with every full bar.

Prevailing theory is that once all games are finished Portal 2 will instantly unlock.
 
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