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[Globox_82]

I call bulls*it on this the whole X720 being 2-3 times stronger than PS4 thing. Consider what Tretton said:



Being the best and being 2-3 times weaker than your main competitor doesn't really make and sense. I expect PS4 and X720 to have 10-15% difference in power.

And X720 being 2-3 times more powerful would also mean that Microsoft would have to price it substantially higher than PS4, unless they are willing to suffer a meaningful loss per console sold.

Tretton is an idiot, but logic says that this will never happen. I am not sure people realise how big difference is 2-3 times. So basically we would have low end (wiiU around same power as current gen PS360), then middle ground PS4 6-10 x? over WiiU/PS360, and then 2-3x what ever PS4 is for 720! Yeah I am sure publishers are all over this idea, if they want to commit suicide.
PS4 and 720 will be almost identical. 3rd party will stear them in that direction.

Besides Sony is under the biggest pressure of all of them. PS3 runs games like TLOU and Beyond. Now how much better PS4 has to be to convince people it's worth their money? I say that's a lot of pressure. So again 2-3 x is fanboy dream.

 

[Reiko]

Tretton is an idiot, but logic says that this will never happen. I am not sure people realise how big difference is 2-3 times. So basically we would have low end (wiiU around same power as current gen PS360), then middle ground PS4 6-10 x? over WiiU/PS360, and then 2-3x what ever PS4 is for 720! Yeah I am sure publishers are all over this idea, if they want to commit suicide.
PS4 and 720 will be almost identical. 3rd party will stear them in that direction.

Besides Sony is under the biggest pressure of all of them. PS3 runs games like TLOU and Beyond. Now how much better PS4 has to be to convince people it's worth their money? I say that's a lot of pressure. So again 2-3 x is fanboy dream.

2-3x... Isn't that like PS2 to Xbox?

 

[Napalm_Frank]

I agree that 3rd partys will do anything to convince the 2 to be as close as possible. Only way next gen games will be sustainable is if the games are multiplat without too much effort unless either MS or Sony just steamrolls the other and gains a huuge market share.

 

[jeff_rigby]

TSMC began volume production of 28nm chips in October, 2010, with initial output of around 1,000 wafers a month. Fab 15 is the foundry giant’s pivotal production site for 28nm chips, turning out over 10,000 wafers using the process in the second quarter this year. The monthly output of 52,000 wafers marked the unprecedented volume production speed at the company’s giga-size foundry factories.

TSMC is estimated to begin pilot production of chips at 20nm nodes in the second half of 2013 and volume production of the chips in 2014.

TSMC will begin tooling the phase 4 and phase 5 production modules of Fab 15 sometime in December and put the two modules into volume production in the second quarter of 2013. Employees at the factory will increase to 2,400 in 2013 from current 1,800.

9. Involved in LSA for Samara and Pennar GNB's
10. Involved in setting up of Pennar database with GF libraries
9.Involved with migration of Pennar database from TSMC to GF libraries.

Team Size: 12
Technology used:
Verification environment is a hybrid mixture of System-C, SystemVerilog and C++ language.GNB is targeted for 20nm technological library with GF foundaries.
Project:2 G4Main SOC

"Involved with migration of Pennar database from TSMC to GF libraries." TSMC is apparently leading GloFlo in 20nm. Pennar database is the information used to create/Fab the wafer which contains the Pennar APU. The assumption in migrating (moving) the database from TSMC to GloFlo is that it's a FINISHED database with a high enough yield to be practical. Pennar is a 2 Jaguar package APU and there are no plans to release it in 2013????

From mistercteam on SemiAccurate who he says is not MisterXmedia:

Rumor: TSMC to build quad-core 20nm chips for Apple by late 2013

TSMC plans low volume 20nm production in 2013

DigiTimes: Samsung and TSMC are going to start producing 20 nm chips in 2013

Globalfoundries is announcing that they’re ready to make chips using 14 nanometer transistors. Chips using these transistors will supposedly “tape-out” next year. To put it another way, chip designers can start producing sample 14 nanometer chips as early as 2013. And at some point in late 2014 or early 2015, there’s a high probability that you’re going to be able to buy a phone with one of these new 14 nm chips. They should deliver 60% more battery life than an equivalent 20 nanometer chip. What’s funny is that 20 nanometer chips aren’t even out yet, so we’re talking about about something that’s really futuristic here.

The 14nm transistors will be on a 20nm plane. There is a BIG BIG push to get 20nm out as the next three shrinks will be on a 20nm plane.

 

[eso76]

2-3 times PS4?

GAF would be so awesome.

And yet, gt6 will still look better than fm5.
*runs*

 

[Reiko]

And yet, gt6 will still look better than fm5.
*runs*

At this point, power has nothing to do with why Gran Turismo looks so good. But it definitely helps.

 

[eso76]

At this point, power has nothing to do with why Gran Turismo looks so good. But it definitely helps.

Yes, that was the point.

 

[RoboPlato]

A power gap that huge would be due to someone going the Wii route and coming up with an innovative hook or the more powerful system being well over a year later. Neither of these really fit into what Sony or Microsoft seem to want to do or how they operate.

 

[Napalm_Frank]

A power gap that huge would be due to someone going the Wii route and coming up with an innovative hook or the more powerful system being well over a year later. Neither of these really fit into what Sony or Microsoft seem to want to do or how they operate.

Please God no...

 

[AlStrong]

Alstrong posted a two line cite (in bold) of the first cite above on BY3D with the comment; "Yawn" and it was also promptly deleted by the mods. So any reference to next generation and 20nm is removed by BY3D mods. Why?

Because I was tired. As far as I can tell, yawning can be a sign of fatigue. There is no need to make up a conspiracy theory about it.

----

There is no logical reason to expect consoles to launch at 20nm unless they are massively delayed. Low volume/risk 20nm production for end of 2013 for mobile parts should be a big enough indicator that it isn't going to be possible to launch a high powered set of parts with extremely high volume and adequate yield.

 

[Melchiah]

2-3x... Isn't that like PS2 to Xbox?

If Xbox was 2-3x more powerful than PS2, why couldn't it run the effects in MGS2 as good as the PS2? IIRC, also Silent Hill 2 had some problems with the fog on Xbox.

 

[Reiko]

If Xbox was 2-3x more powerful than PS2, why couldn't it run the effects in MGS2 as good as the PS2? IIRC, also Silent Hill 2 had some problems with the fog on Xbox.

PS2's fillrate was monsterous.

 

[Melchiah]

PS2's fillrate was monsterous.

Which is why I wouldn't call Xbox 2-3 times more powerful. More like 1.5x.

 

[Ashes]

...

 

[michaelius]

I wouldn't be suprised if Sony and Microsoft agreed a minimal power level which both consoles need to offer to make sure they get same 3rd party support they had this gen.

 

[Reiko]

I wouldn't be suprised if Sony and Microsoft agreed a minimal power level which both consoles need to offer to make sure they get same 3rd party support they had this gen.

Crytek is power hungry though.

 

[darkside31337]

...

Lol

Spoiler

it was a nice goal

I honestly have no idea what any of this stuff in the thread means but its fun to read up on. Hopefully theres more pertinent factual information that comes out soon.

 

[jeff_rigby]

There is no logical reason to expect consoles to launch at 20nm unless they are massively delayed. Low volume/risk 20nm production for end of 2013 for mobile parts should be a big enough indicator that it isn't going to be possible to launch a high powered set of parts with extremely high volume and adequate yield.

We had this discussion before and high powered is I think misleading as it looks like low power silicon is going to be used. There is no GPU (~800 mhz) or CPU (~ 1.6Ghz) that will need a high clock speed. The other cites and arguments are in the thread for discussion purposes. It is assumed 28nm will be used but it's now so last generation as your cite (2010) pointed out. Three years later and we are to see what should be a state of the art game console at 28nm a 2010 node.

 

[AlStrong]

It is assumed 28nm will be used but it's now so last generation as your cite (2010) pointed out. Three years later and we are to see what should be a state of the art game console at 28nm a 2010 node.

You missed the point entirely. We didn't see any high performance 28nm part (PC GPU) in the market until Q1 2012, 16 months. Why should we expect a 20nm parts for MS & Sony within a much shorter time period? The initial wafer production will almost all go towards the mobile sector, and even so, "starting volume production" was considered 1000 wafers per month, and only ramped up to 10K by Q2 2012.

Essentially, next gen would have to be delayed to early 2015 just so that there's enough lead time to even accumulate volume for launch.

 

[i-Lo]

Remember the where the performance benchmarks were based on Polygon and Fill rate as opposed to Tera Flops?

With that in mind did anyone ever vet the claim that RSX in PS3 was capable of around 275 million poly/sec, 13.2 GigaTexels/sec and 4.4 GigaPixels/sec?

I have always confused the texels and pixels and which is more "relevant".... so any help would be appreciated.

Also, with aforementioned figures, what would be reasonable to expect for GPU in PS4 (Poly/sec, Gtex/sec and GPix/sec)?

 

[Ashes]

Lol

Spoiler

it was a nice goal

I honestly have no idea what any of this stuff in the thread means but its fun to read up on. Hopefully theres more pertinent factual information that comes out soon.

Ha ha!

 

[jeff_rigby]

You missed the point entirely. We didn't see any high performance 28nm part (PC GPU) in the market until Q1 2012, 16 months. Why should we expect a 20nm parts for MS & Sony within a much shorter time period? The initial wafer production will almost all go towards the mobile sector, and even so, "starting volume production" was considered 1000 wafers per month, and only ramped up to 10K by early 2012.

You understand 20nm low power is on the fast track, right? You can't use the same roadmap that 28nm had.

"Apple began verifying TSMC's 20nm process in August this year and may begin risk production in November with the process," the report said. "Volume production is expected to start in the fourth quarter of 2013,

And of course there is no information on when anything is happening for game consoles.....

Do you think the design is still being finalized or they are waiting for 20nm? Cause with the AMD engineering layoffs I assume the designs were finished and awaiting the forges early this year before the layoffs. If TSMC could make a 28nm game console SoC last year at high yield why are we waiting till Nov 2013 or later. Rumors in a SemiAccurate article assume the design is done and tapeout occurred @32nm Dec 2011.

 

[AlStrong]

You understand 20nm low power is on the fast track, right? You can't use the same roadmap that 28nm had.

Unless they're using mobile SoCs ala Apple (<10W), I'm not sure what your point is or what the relevance is to consoles.

Do you think the design is still being finalized or they are waiting for 20nm? Cause with the AMD engineering layoffs I assume the designs were finished and awaiting the forges.

Assuming a late 2013 launch, they would have the design finished by now, and are producing early silicon to check up on yields; as fixed designs, they can't rely on binning, so it does them no good if they have a bunch of functioning chips that need to be thrown out because they don't meet TDP requirements at a target clock speed.

 

[Binabik15]

And yet, gt6 will still look better than fm5.
*runs*

Naughty Dog with any sort of more powerful hardware is exciting enough to gt a PS4 anyway, but I'd be less than thrilled. As would third parties, I'd bet, so I doubt either Sony or MS could tell devs their target specs without getting some serious hints that they might want to up them if they want their games. A factor of 2 or 3 just seems way too high, especially with the sort of power everyone is expecting. One of them would have to try to be weaker, because neither could just say, fuck, they use a xyz equivalent card, lets go to eleven. Right? Right?!


I doubt that next gen will be healthy if devs had to target three different power ranges or two if they keep not supporting Wii-U. One if they heavily back one of the unreleased consoles or even go exclusive, but I can't see either console being so heavily outselling the other.

 

[Elios83]

I wouldn't be suprised if Sony and Microsoft agreed a minimal power level which both consoles need to offer to make sure they get same 3rd party support they had this gen.

It is indeed like that. The point is that to continue to make traditional games with even higher budgets and sustain the traditional business model that both Sony and Microsoft support, developers are pretty much dictating the rules.
They need both the products to be successful, it's a required condition to have a meaningful installed base, they're telling them what kind of minimum specs thay need to have (ex. they have to be able to run the UE4 demos Epic is making at a defined resolution and frame rate) and they don't want to have problems developing with either of those so they want similar platforms.
It Sony and Microsoft don't join their forces indirectly to make the traditional game development business model sustainable, these companies will just go mobile/social/etc one after the other, which is something that is already happening and is affecting smallers publishers.
Also as said previously both Sony and Microsoft are developing their consoles using the same manufacturing technologies and the know-how of the same key company (AMD).
Under these conditions it's impossible for one of them to be much better than the other unless one decides that it's coming much later and/or with a much higher price.
It's ridicolous how this gets completely ignored, it's like fanboys believing that their favourite company has magic while the other is dumb and shit. No one is going to take huge risks which could affect their outcome on the market just to please a few people who wish to have a high end PC as a console.

 

[Reiko]

Naughty Dog with any sort of more powerful hardware is exciting enough to gt a PS4 anyway, but I'd be less than thrilled. As would third parties, I'd bet, so I doubt either Sony or MS could tell devs their target specs without getting some serious hints that they might want to up them if they want their games. A factor of 2 or 3 just seems way too high, especially with the sort of power everyone is expecting. One of them would have to try to be weaker, because neither could just say, fuck, they use a xyz equivalent card, lets go to eleven. Right? Right?!


I doubt that next gen will be healthy if devs had to target three different power ranges or two if they keep not supporting Wii-U. One if they heavily back one of the unreleased consoles or even go exclusive, but I can't see either console being so heavily outselling the other.

If it's like playing a PC game, you can just scale down for performance.

Cut back fidelity of this, tone down this... etc

 

[eso76]

Naughty Dog with any sort of more powerful hardware is exciting enough to gt a PS4 anyway, but I'd be less than thrilled. As would third parties, I'd bet, so I doubt either Sony or MS could tell devs their target specs without getting some serious hints that they might want to up them if they want their games. A factor of 2 or 3 just seems way too high, especially with the sort of power everyone is expecting. One of them would have to try to be weaker, because neither could just say, fuck, they use a xyz equivalent card, lets go to eleven. Right? Right?!

I would think the 2/3x times is bull, i'm not taking it seriously.

If that meant x720 is an utter beast (if we expect a PS4 to be, say, 5x a PS3, than an xbox720 being 2/3 times that would make it 10/15x a PS3) i would love it * but it's more likely to mean the x720 is still the expected ~6x more powerful than current gen, with a PS4 being 2x.
Either way, that would mean 3 very different systems the industry wouldn't be able to afford developing for, so i would rule that out.

 

[yurinka]

I would think the 2/3x times is bull, i'm not taking it seriously.

If that meant x720 is an utter beast (if we expect a PS4 to be, say, 5x a PS3, than an xbox720 being 2/3 times that would make it 10/15x a PS3) i would love it * but it's more likely to mean the x720 is still the expected ~6x more powerful than current gen, with a PS4 being 2x.
Either way, that would mean 3 very different systems the industry wouldn't be able to afford developing for, so i would rule that out.

As I remember from the leaked MS doc, their target for Durango was to be 5x to 8x as powerful than a 360.

 

[aegies]

As I remember from the leaked MS doc, their target for Durango was to be 5x to 8x as powerful than a 360.

That document is no longer accurate. It was from two years ago. Among other things, it talked about the vita with suppositions and before the system actually had a name.

 

[yurinka]

That document is no longer accurate. It was from two years ago. Among other things, it talked about the vita with suppositions and before the system actually had a name.

I thought that the next gen hardware strategy (not talking about the exact HW specs) was something designed and planned in the long term instead of deciding the main things of your console when there is less than to its release.

 

[Log4Girlz]

What I need to know is...what is the target TDP? That would tell a lot about what kind of power to expect.

 

[Pimpbaa]

YLOD wasn't related to power/heat. And RROD was just due to piss poor placement. They could have easily had launch 360s not RROD without changing anything about the power of the console, just by putting more thought into where to place the components.

Did you see the original heatsink they had on the 360? It was puny. When the falcon revision came out with a heatpipe connected to the heatsink and another heatsink on the other end it helped immensely.

 

[Vol5]

OK, so what does AMD's Tenerife chip fall under? Sea Islands or Volcanic Islands, because Tenerife is both.

 

[Racer30]

I would think the 2/3x times is bull, i'm not taking it seriously.

If that meant x720 is an utter beast (if we expect a PS4 to be, say, 5x a PS3, than an xbox720 being 2/3 times that would make it 10/15x a PS3) i would love it * but it's more likely to mean the x720 is still the expected ~6x more powerful than current gen, with a PS4 being 2x.
Either way, that would mean 3 very different systems the industry wouldn't be able to afford developing for, so i would rule that out.

So what are we down to now, PS4 2x PS3 (double the performance in 8 years)?

This thread is pure comedy

 

[Smilebit]

aegies........ durango vs orbis. Which is more powerful from what you've heard?

 

[seattle6418]

It would be crazy to think they will be much different. It doesn't make sense from any logical point of view.

Not only 3rd party would be difficult, but both are working with AMD and both know what the other is doing.

I wouldn't be surprised if this time they are like 99% equal, with different designs. The industry has changed, 3rd party exclusives no more, and they know they have to differentiate in other stuff.

People will be disappointed knowing that both will have about the same specs.

 

[aegies]

aegies........ durango vs orbis. Which is more powerful from what you've heard?

This is where I don't say what I've heard because people would be mad at the messenger. But I will say that it's been indicated to me that the complaints at GDC about system memory amounts was being directed at a specific platform holder. And you'll probably find out about things much sooner than you think.

I thought that the next gen hardware strategy (not talking about the exact HW specs) was something designed and planned in the long term instead of deciding the main things of your console when there is less than to its release.

It wasn't created by the people making those roadmaps. It was a marketing thing, If I remember correctly. Also, it was before the system was delayed, which happened some time in 2011, I think after Kinect goosed 360 sales back up.

Also, here's a fun fact: people are currently playing a game that was originally contracted as a next-gen exclusive, and have been for a while. That's all you get out of me.

 

[pharmboy044]

This is where I don't say what I've heard because people would be mad at the messenger. But I will say that it's been indicated to me that the complaints at GDC about system memory amounts was being directed at a specific platform holder. And you'll probably find out about things much sooner than you think.

So did this platform holder take these complaints to heart or just ignored them and went their own way?

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

This is where I don't say what I've heard because people would be mad at the messenger. But I will say that it's been indicated to me that the complaints at GDC about system memory amounts was being directed at a specific platform holder. And you'll probably find out about things much sooner than you think.

you could just say it because you just said "ps4 needs more ram", which is what we've heard already from another rumor.

 

[Smilebit]

So......durango

 

[Pranay]

Tweets from a GAF member - Ben psnstores

I think I hear a bag of worms being opened, pity I have to sleep for a 9am lecture now&#8230; oh video games industry, you&#8217;re the best.

See, this is going to be the big Next Gen Rumour pit until CES. No big events until then, so it&#8217;s gonna be fun.

Also, here's a fun fact: people are currently playing a game that was originally contracted as a next-gen exclusive, and have been for a while. That's all you get out of me.

ahan

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

Yeah Crytek and DICE wanted 8GB and Microsoft listened basically.

 

[GoofsterStud]

Sega Saturn II
Believe!

I want to believe. :-(

Best console ever.

 

[Reiko]

Yeah Crytek and DICE wanted 8GB and Microsoft listened basically.

CryEngine pretty much demands 8GB.

So maybe this might be the game changer for Ryse...

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

This is where I don't say what I've heard because people would be mad at the messenger. But I will say that it's been indicated to me that the complaints at GDC about system memory amounts was being directed at a specific platform holder. And you'll probably find out about things much sooner than you think.

So, what you're saying is that there were complaints about the amount of system RAM in the PS4, but the rest of the system (GPU, CPU), there were no complaints?

Do the recent rumors of PS4 dev kits having 8-16GB of RAM indicate that Sony has listened to these complaints?

And when you say we'll find out about things much sooner than we think, does that hold true for both platforms or just one? I've heard rumors that Microsoft would be showing off Durango shortly after the new year (around GDC), but nothing from Sony.

 

[aegies]

So, what you're saying is that there were complaints about the amount of system RAM in the PS4, but the rest of the system (GPU, CPU), there were no complaints?

Do the recent rumors of PS4 dev kits having 8-16GB of RAM indicate that Sony has listened to these complaints?

And when you say we'll find out about things much sooner than we think, does that hold true for both platforms or just one? I've heard rumors that Microsoft would be showing off Durango shortly after the new year (around GDC), but nothing from Sony.

I think you'll see info before E3 for everybody. But one quite a bit sooner than the other.

 

[Kazuma Kiryu]

I think you'll see info before E3 for everybody. But one quite a bit sooner than the other.

ps meeting ps4 confirmed

 

[mrklaw]

Unless they're using mobile SoCs ala Apple (<10W), I'm not sure what your point is or what the relevance is to consoles.



Assuming a late 2013 launch, they would have the design finished by now, and are producing early silicon to check up on yields; as fixed designs, they can't rely on binning, so it does them no good if they have a bunch of functioning chips that need to be thrown out because they don't meet TDP requirements at a target clock speed.

Sure they can bin. Didn't Sony bin the CELL by only requiring 7 'good' SPUs? And they could certainly bin the GPU if desired.

I think it's unlikely they'll push for a crazy new process. Build what you can on a 'mature enough' process, and then look to migrate smaller/cheaper two years down the line.

 

[Evolution_1ne]

Rush and PS4 in the same year, 2013 is going to be one hell of a year

 

[gaming_noob]

I think you'll see info before E3 for everybody. But one quite a bit sooner than the other.

This is going to be a good holiday.