VGC: Assassin’s Creed Shadows is the series’ 2nd highest day 1 revenue (best ever PlayStation store day 1 result for Ubisoft; PC 27% activation)

Woopah

Member
Its crazy how the usual sales experts are awefully quiet. Mat and Dring would have been screaming their lungs out if it sold 0.5% better on Steam in one country!!
I've asked you again but I hope you actually answer this time. Why do you invent these weird conspiracy theories about analysts? Like, what do you get out of it?

You've seen that the game did best on console and just decided that means sales experts are quiet, regardless of reality.
But that would go against the narrative we have to preach right now, so analysts and sales experts, keep quiet until next time, if consoles had sold less than 30%, we would already be talking about the debacle and the end of these.
Sales analysts talk about sales. Some games do better on PC and others do better on PS, its not "preaching a narrative" to talk about where the sales are coming from.
 
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Baemono

Member
This is feudal Japan, a settings we've been waiting for YEARS. Even if these numbers are good, Shadows should have crushed everything.

I don't know if people were still waiting for Feudal Japan after Nioh in 2017, Sekiro in 2018, Ghost of Tsushima in 2020, Yakuza Ishin in 2023 and Rise of Ronin in 2024.

People were saying "Tsushima is AC in Japan", so coming after all these games seems like a late attempt (which is not of course).
 

Zathalus

Member
Assuming 80% of PC sales come from Steam, that does put the number sold as fairly high. Not a smash hit like Monster Hunter or Elden Ring of course.
 

calico

Member
Even doing half as well as Valhalla would make it profitable considering a) Valhalla made over a billion dollars and b) estimates put the budget for Shadows at around $300 million. The article was correct to point out that Valhalla was a freak anomaly happening in a pandemic when gaming revenue mooned.

I feel that people are also neglecting to consider all the money that will be made off microtransactions. They wouldn't necessarily need to sell 5 million copies to break even (even though I think it will easily do that long term). They can potentially get away with less if the horse armor sales and the bump to Ubisoft+ subs is substantial enough. It's why "engagement" can be a valuable metric and isn't necessarily PR spin. Money is money.

Wait for the numbers breakdown in a few months is all we can do.
~Half as well as the previous entry in their flagship IP would be a disaster when they're relying on it to carry the company. I agree that money is money, which is why none of the media spin excuses matter.
 

SweetTooth

Gold Member
I've asked you again but I hope you actually answer this time. Why do you invent these weird conspiracy theories about analysts? Like, what do you get out of it?

You've seen that the game did best on console and just decided that means sales experts are quiet, regardless of reality.

Sales analysts talk about sales. Some games do better on PC and others do better on PS, its not "preaching a narrative" to talk about where the sales are coming from.

I haven't invented anything, when you follow Mat, Dring long enough you will noticed a pattern and clear agenda. Its clear to me and I base my opinion of them based on that.

Also wasn't Mat part of the infamous discord in the past?
 
I'm having a blast playing this, despite the new climbing design, it's so beautiful and the gameplay feels good. Sadly I'm quite sure tencent will acquire the rights to AC no matter what
 

Topher

Identifies as young
~Half as well as the previous entry in their flagship IP would be a disaster when they're relying on it to carry the company. I agree that money is money, which is why none of the media spin excuses matter.

Yeah, but those are two different discussions. Shadows can do extremely well and surpass expectations under normal circumstances. Saving Ubisoft was probably never in play here. Ubisoft isn't going to look the same this time last year and that has nothing to do with how well Shadows sells.
 

Madflavor

Member
People wanting this game to fail better start making peace at this point that it’s going to do well.

It sounds like the game has improved on the AC formula in meaningful ways. If that’s the case, it deserves success. I’m going to bet the vast majority of people complaining wouldn’t have a problem at all if it was William Adams fucking shit up.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
Uh oh......don't look now but seems folks may be buying PS5 Pro to play AC:S

naX1ITJ.png


crushed noo GIF
 
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Topher

Identifies as young
Can they pay their employees in these excuses?

Whose fault is it they missed their better launch window?

You were giving "excuses" as to why Shadows was at the top of the best seller list. I went along with your reasoning as it was based in facts. MMaRsu MMaRsu is also providing facts. So are you only interested in facts when they suit an agenda and otherwise they are "excuses"?
 
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RafterXL

Member
Significantly, PC activations represented around 27% of total activations, with Steam playing “a significant role” in that performance.
If the game is doing so great, why do they keep doing this? WTF is "total activations"? Does that mean sales, and if it does, why not just say sales?

And here's another issue. If PC is 27% of whatever the fuck activations is, let's assume sales, that would put the sales of this game a lot lower than they are acting. The guy earlier was on the right track, he just sucks at math. The real formula would be 60,000 (CCU) x 5 because it's generally 20% of buyers playing at launch at a time. That's 300k copies. So that's about a million in sales total. And that's if they aren't counting Ubisoft+ as an "activation".

The numbers don't add up. That's not saying it isn't selling well, but with the numbers we have here and their outright refusal to release hard, factual information, I wouldn't hold my breath just yet. Sounds like the usual PR to build hype that we've seen repeatedly this past year.
 

LordOcidax

Member
The Pokemon effect.. The hate on this game was an incredible marketing tool. Also the Japanese setting is too good to ignore for a lot of people. This game probably is going to be the best selling AC game, apart from the woke shit the game is really good.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
If the game is doing so great, why do they keep doing this? WTF is "total activations"? Does that mean sales, and if it does, why not just say sales?

And here's another issue. If PC is 27% of whatever the fuck activations is, let's assume sales, that would put the sales of this game a lot lower than they are acting. The guy earlier was on the right track, he just sucks at math. The real formula would be 60,000 (CCU) x 5 because it's generally 20% of buyers playing at launch at a time. That's 300k copies. So that's about a million in sales total. And that's if they aren't counting Ubisoft+ as an "activation".

The numbers don't add up. That's not saying it isn't selling well, but with the numbers we have here and their outright refusal to release hard, factual information, I wouldn't hold my breath just yet. Sounds like the usual PR to build hype that we've seen repeatedly this past year.

Or your formula is wrong
 
If the game is doing so great, why do they keep doing this? WTF is "total activations"? Does that mean sales, and if it does, why not just say sales?

And here's another issue. If PC is 27% of whatever the fuck activations is, let's assume sales, that would put the sales of this game a lot lower than they are acting. The guy earlier was on the right track, he just sucks at math. The real formula would be 60,000 (CCU) x 5 because it's generally 20% of buyers playing at launch at a time. That's 300k copies. So that's about a million in sales total. And that's if they aren't counting Ubisoft+ as an "activation".

The numbers don't add up. That's not saying it isn't selling well, but with the numbers we have here and their outright refusal to release hard, factual information, I wouldn't hold my breath just yet. Sounds like the usual PR to build hype that we've seen repeatedly this past year.
They are definitely counting Ubisoft+ as activations. But we don't know the split between Steam and Ubisoft+. So if there are 300k Steam buys and 500k on Ubi+, that implies just under 3 million "players" based on their 27% metric.

That said I generally agree with you, there's been no solid data offered so far that indicates the game sales are meeting expectations.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
They are definitely counting Ubisoft+ as activations. But we don't know the split between Steam and Ubisoft+. So if there are 300k Steam buys and 500k on Ubi+, that implies just under 3 million "players" based on their 27% metric.

That said I generally agree with you, there's been no solid data offered so far that indicates the game sales are meeting expectations.

There is no data indicating they are not meeting expectations either. Hard to determine that either way when we don't know what the expectations are.
 
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Woopah

Member
I haven't invented anything, when you follow Mat, Dring long enough you will noticed a pattern and clear agenda. Its clear to me and I base my opinion of them based on that.

Also wasn't Mat part of the infamous discord in the past?
You invented something just now.

Your claim: Its crazy how awfully quiet Dring is about Assasisn Creed

The reality:

1. Dring posted about AC UK sales yesterday
2. Dring posted about global AC sales today
3. Dring has said he'll talk about AC on his podcast tomorrow
4. Dring has actually posted more about AC in just the last few minutes (thought obviously this was after you made your post.

You clearly didn't actually look at what Chris had done. You just made up that he was "awfully quiet" because that fits your narrative that he has an agenda.

What exactly is his agenda about Assassin's Creed: Shadows supposed to be? Why do you think he'd be screaming from the rooftop if it sold more on PC?
 
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SweetTooth

Gold Member
You invented something just now.

Your claim: Its crazy how Dring is awfully quiet about Assasisn Creed

The reality:

1. Dring posted about AC UK sales yesterday
2. Dring posted about global AC sales today
3. Dring has said he'll talk about AC on his podcast tomorrow
4. Dring has actually posted more about AC in just the last few minutes (thought obviously this was after you made your post.

You clearly didn't actually look at what Chris had done. You just made up that he was "awfully quiet" because that fits your narrative that he has an agenda.

What exactly is his agenda about Assassin's Creed: Shadows supposed to be?
What did he post? Did he mention that Playstation contributed more than half the sales? Or he will emphasize it when its favorable to his agenda?
 

Woopah

Member
What did he post? Did he mention that Playstation contributed more than half the sales? Or he will emphasize it when its favorable to his agenda?
At the moment he's talking about the 2 million players number. What is his agenda and what would be favourable to it?
 
There is no data indicating they are not meeting expectations either. Hard to determine that either way when we don't know what the expectations are.
The expectation would be that the game performs as well as or better than games that required a similar level of capital investment. Spider-Man 2 looks like a good comparison based on budget and recency, which sold 2.5 million in the first 24 and over 5 million in 11 days.
 
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RafterXL

Member
Or your formula is wrong
Maybe, but I doubt it. This formula is basic Steam sales 101, and all three trackers that Steamdb uses has it with that general area, two of them have it lower. If there is a problem with the math it's not on the Steam sales end. A month from now that formula doesn't work, but the week of a release, absolute works and has a thousand times before, even as late as MHW.
There is no data indicating they are not meeting expectations either. Hard to determine that either way when we don't know what the expectations are.
And that's the whole problem. They hide the data behind "players" and "activations". This same company said Skull and Bones had "record player engagement" and it was an absolute trainwreck of a failure. It means absolutely nothing, it's PR fluff.

We'll find out sooner or later, when actual numbers get released.
 

Boss Mog

Member
Ah yes, reporting sales is now damage control - Get some new material
Except no sales were actually reported, only revenue. What people want to see is units sold, period. All the rest is meaningless.

Great news. This means the Intergalactic cry babies will have less than zero impact on that game as well. Same goes for Ghosts of Yotei.
Yes, you totally owned the chuds, well done... :pie_eyeroll:
 

calico

Member
You were giving "excuses" as to why Shadows was at the top of the best seller list. I went along with your reasoning as it was based in facts. MMaRsu MMaRsu is also providing facts. So are you only interested in facts when they suit an agenda and otherwise they are "excuses"?
My explanation was correcting a flawed inference. The excuses offered here were an attempt to undermine a correct (as far as we know) and relevant statement, as made clear by the 'keep reaching bro'.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
The expectation would be that the game performs as well as or better than games that required a similar level of capital investment. Spider-Man 2 looks like a good comparison based on budget and recency, which sold 2.5 million in the first 24 and over 5 million in 11 days.

Every company has their own expectations. What you provided was an entirely made up expectation.

Maybe, but I doubt it. This formula is basic Steam sales 101,

What is the source of this basic Steam sales 101 whatever then?

My explanation was correcting a flawed inference. The excuses offered here were an attempt to undermine a correct (as far as we know) and relevant statement, as made clear by the 'keep reaching bro'.

Nah...you are being selective with facts. What he said was absolutely true.
 
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mdkirby

Gold Member
this is all still far too early. It was never gonna totally bomb, but it needs to do huge numbers. If it sustains consistent good sales for a few weeks and has a decent tail, then it's good. If its sales fall off a cliff by the end of the week, then it's fucked (even at like 4mil units). The budgets on these are just silly. We'll know in a couple of months. Anything now is noise. Tho still fun to debate it.

Also, somebody wake me in a few months when all the bugs are fixed.
 
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Jaybe

Member
We will see how well Shadows did when Ubisoft reports their revenue for Jan to March 2025 in a month or two.

The quarter that AC Valhalla released, Oct to Dec 2020, Ubisoft had revenue of 1 billion Euros. I’m guessing they will report a fair amount lower despite the player counts reported, just due to those players being one month subscribers.

bnVehIf.jpeg
 
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Woopah

Member
Man, you need to be more observant to their posts. You can check their wording qbout Wilds vs Shadows.. its not hard to see really.

You can check other games and events too ..
If its obvious then you would be able to tell me what Chris' agenda is. Are you referring to Wilds selling more on PC than consoles?

Once I know what agenda you think he has, then we can look at the actual facts.
 
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Astray

Member
We will see how well Shadows did when Ubisoft reports their revenue for Jan to March 2025 in a month or two.

The quarter that AC Valhalla released, Oct to Dec 2020, Ubisoft had revenue of 1 billion Euros. I’m guessing they will report a fair amount lower despite the player counts reported, just due to those players being one month subscribers.

bnVehIf.jpeg
The comparison will likely be YOY.. Why would they choose 2020 to compare to specifically?
 
That's an entirely made up expectation.
No, that's how the real world works. Investors expect returns on their investment, and if Ubi fails to deliver returns on investment on par with their peers, it's a failure on Ubi's part, and the money flows elsewhere.

Do you have an "expectation" that would be more apt than a comparison of Ubisoft's performance against its peers?
 
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SweetTooth

Gold Member
If its obvious then you would be able to tell me what Chris' agenda is. Are you referring to Wilds selling more on PC than consoles?

Once I know what agenda you think he has, then we can look at the actual facts.

I don't know why are you defending Chris this much .. maybe you don't see his bias and that's fine. Me.. I know he is one of the most rabid Ninty fanboys
 

Astray

Member
No, that's how the real world works. Investors expect returns on their investment, and if Ubi fails to deliver returns on investment on par with their peers, it's a failure on Ubi's part, and the money flows elsewhere.

Do you have an "expectation" that would be more apt than a comparison of Ubisoft's performance against its peers?
Do you think investors expect years of bombs to be undone by a single massive hit?

This isn't how things work in a corporate turnaround lol.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
No, that's how the real world works. Investors expect returns on their investment, and if Ubi fails to deliver returns on investment on par with their peers, it's a failure on Ubi's part, and the money flows elsewhere.

Do you have an "expectation" that would be more apt than a comparison of Ubisoft's performance against its peers?

The company itself knows what revenue targets they need to meet and how much of that they expect to get from any one product. We are not privy to that information and we should not pretend that we are. Certainly not to attempt to paint a situation positively or negatively to suit whatever argument.
 
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calico

Member
If the game is doing so great, why do they keep doing this? WTF is "total activations"? Does that mean sales, and if it does, why not just say sales?

And here's another issue. If PC is 27% of whatever the fuck activations is, let's assume sales, that would put the sales of this game a lot lower than they are acting. The guy earlier was on the right track, he just sucks at math. The real formula would be 60,000 (CCU) x 5 because it's generally 20% of buyers playing at launch at a time. That's 300k copies. So that's about a million in sales total. And that's if they aren't counting Ubisoft+ as an "activation".

The numbers don't add up. That's not saying it isn't selling well, but with the numbers we have here and their outright refusal to release hard, factual information, I wouldn't hold my breath just yet. Sounds like the usual PR to build hype that we've seen repeatedly this past year.
Activations are presumably copies which they know are in use. I would expect Ubi+ to count as activations, but not if you've eg. bought the game in a store but haven't played it yet.

I will say that 27% on PC seems higher than I would have expected, but if we assume it's right, 300k on Steam plus another 300k between Ubi+ rentals and Ubisoft store etc. would get you in the right ballpark for the number of players Ubisoft has announced so far.
 

calico

Member
Every company has their own expectations. What you provided was an entirely made up expectation.



What is the source of this basic Steam sales 101 whatever then?



Nah...you are being selective with facts. What he said was absolutely true.
Nah.
 

Woopah

Member
I don't know why are you defending Chris this much .. maybe you don't see his bias and that's fine. Me.. I know he is one of the most rabid Ninty fanboys
Because it doesn't make any sense. Chris is a Ninty fanboy and that's why he's talking about the success of Monster Hunter Wilds and AC:Shadows? (two games not even available on Nintendo plaforms.

Yes he likes Nintendo but he talks about sales for all publishers.

Let me guess. You think Chris talked about sales splits on Monster Hunnter because it did best on PC but didn't talk about it for AC becuase that did best on PS5. Is that what you're trying to hint at?
 
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SweetTooth

Gold Member
Because it doesn't make any sense. Chris is a Ninty fanboy and that's why he's talking about the success of Monster Hunter Wilds and AC:Shadows? (two games not even available on Nintendo plaforms.

Yes he likes Nintendo but he talks about sales for all publishers.

Let me guess. You think Chris talked about sales splits on Monster Hunbter because it did best on PC but didn't talk about it for AC becuase that did best on PS5. Is that what you're trying to hint at?

Yup, that's it.
 

RafterXL

Member
What is the source of this basic Steam sales 101 whatever then?
I have no clue who the exact source is, but the first time I remember it being used was to determine server population on Everquest. Verant confirmed the fact that at any given time 20% of a servers population was playing on that server. So if you had 3000 people online that meant the total population was 15,000 players. And it was accurate. and it translates. And it did translate, because people have been using it for Steam for years. It was accurate for Kingdom Come 2, it was accurate for MHW, and it will be accurate for this if they ever release Steam sales numbers. Count on it, or don't, we will see one way or the other soon enough.

Activations are presumably copies which they know are in use. I would expect Ubi+ to count as activations, but not if you've eg. bought the game in a store but haven't played it yet.

I will say that 27% on PC seems higher than I would have expected, but if we assume it's right, 300k on Steam plus another 300k between Ubi+ rentals and Ubisoft store etc. would get you in the right ballpark for the number of players Ubisoft has announced so far.
This is exactly what I think, there is no other way for these statements to jive unless they are counting Ubisoft+.
 

Jaybe

Member
The comparison will likely be YOY.. Why would they choose 2020 to compare to specifically?

Their report will be YoY but we will be able to see the revenue (bookings) they reported for. Shadows launch quarter (upcoming) vs the Valhalla launch quarter (my prior post). This is more a backup in case they don’t provide the comparisons themselves.
 

Topher

Identifies as young
I have no clue who the exact source is, but the first time I remember it being used was to determine server population on Everquest. Verant confirmed the fact that at any given time 20% of a servers population was playing on that server. So if you had 3000 people online that meant the total population was 15,000 players. And it was accurate. and it translates. And it did translate, because people have been using it for Steam for years. It was accurate for Kingdom Come 2, it was accurate for MHW, and it will be accurate for this if they ever release Steam sales numbers. Count on it, or don't, we will see one way or the other soon enough.

How is it true for MHW or KCD 2 when we do not have the total numbers for any game on Steam?
 

cormack12

Gold Member
Uh oh......don't look now but seems folks may be buying PS5 Pro to play AC:S

naX1ITJ.png

I have it on good authority thar the spike in Pro sales is anticipation of the new Minecraft visual update.

We will see how well Shadows did when Ubisoft reports their revenue for Jan to March 2025 in a month or two.

The quarter that AC Valhalla released, Oct to Dec 2020, Ubisoft had revenue of 1 billion Euros. I’m guessing they will report a fair amount lower despite the player counts reported, just due to those players being one month subscribers.

bnVehIf.jpeg

We already know it will be lower, probably by a lot because of the seasonal aspect.

Also Valhalla was the first foray into single player live service with traditional DLC so it had a lot of legs to stay current. We don't really know what the future of shadows is. There was a bunch of paid DLC, there were seasonal free updates like Yule, Ostrava, Sigrblot and eventually River Raids. There were additional settlements and cosmetics/transmogs.

If anything Valhalla is an outlier and we need to see if Ubi invest that much in a single ac title again.
 
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