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[Men_in_Boxes]

We're a few months away from PlayStations first "real" Live Service effort in Helldivers 2. I personally think it's going to be a big success for Arrowhead Studios and PlayStation. That got me wondering, how many of these games does NeoGAF think will fail? Extra credit: Define what failure means in this context.

NeoGAF, I can't talk about this stuff with people IRL. Fulfill your birthright and do your duty by meaningfully contributing to this poll. Remember, there will be people who view this poll after the apocalypses so do your future self proud by being correct.

Personally, I think nearly all will succeed. I don't think Live Service games are as "luck based" as some want to believe. I think Bungie and PlayStations Live Service Center of Excellence will provide PlayStation with insightful guidance on what games are doomed to fail and what games aren't. Helldivers II will be the first in a string of hits for PlayStation.

 

[Arkangelus0]

Marathon and factions are the only ones, the rest die within 9 months of release

 

[R6Rider]

They only need one to succeed.

Most of them will fail, some will survive, and only a few will hit it big.

 

[killatopak]

Most of them. Live service games are very competitive and Sony isn’t a huge expert on it. Their only consistent live service game was MLB IIRC.

 

[Gobjuduck]

Most live service games die within a couple months, dont think sony is any safer from that statistic.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

some already have failed

 

[March Climber]

They will need only one to succeed.

 

[tmlDan]

I think close to 50%, I think less if you have very high expectations like another fortnite....but other games that are a bit more lowkey live for a long time with a dedicated fanbase.

 

[Historia]

1-2 hits in total of 10 games already make them back a lot of money.

I don't think they ever care.

 

[Robb]

90/10 fail/succeed maybe.

And by success I’m thinking a single game with a huge user base that they can milk for 5+ years with just content updates.

 

[CLW]

I don't think Sony will have that much more success than any other studio/publisher. The hit rate for these isn't great. People lose interest quickly but it only takes 1 to hit that zeitgeist to pay for all the failures and then some.

 

[gothmog]

Fortnite funds a whole company. All Sony needs is one hit. It doesn't even need to be Fortnite level to be huge.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

They will need only one to succeed.

Reminder: Sea of Thieves is Rares most successful game. I think the size of the success is important too.

 

[SaucyJack]

They only need one to succeed.

Most of them will fail, some will survive, and only a few will hit it big.

Pretty much this.

Out of 12 games I’ll say - 6 fail, 2 survive, 2 moderate success, 2 hits. They’ll be more than happy with this.

 

[NikuNashi]

I think marathon will succeed.

 

[Guilty_AI]

I think only one or two will succeed in the sense of becoming mainstream and printing money.

Others will either flop or find a niche.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

Most of them. Live service games are very competitive and Sony isn’t a huge expert on it. Their only consistent live service game was MLB IIRC.

Are you talking about Sony before they got Bungie?

I dare say, owning Bungie now makes them experts.

Anyhoo to OP, I would say a third will succeed, a third will thrive and a third would fail.

 

[Rawbutt Jellybean]

Most (80%+), hopefully.

I'd prefer they stick with what worked instead of going down this route.

 

[Gojiira]

Helldivers 2 looks fantastic, its formula is easily built upon so Ive got a lot of confidence with that one.
Marathon is a sure thing I think given Bungies pedigree, say what you like but they DO have that pedigree.
Concord, who knows, but I like the aesthetic of the trailer so we’ll see.
So far though Id say that Sony has good prospects, but it just depends hiw they monetise them and how often new content rolls out.
Something worth noting is Playstation as a whole is pretty good when it comes to pricing dlc, very large expansions are often only £12-15 such The Burning Sands, or just outright free such as GoT Legends, so theres already good precedence in general.

 

[Sanepar]

Besides Bungie, all of them.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

I think marathon will succeed.

isn't Destiny ending in pure chaos?

 

[Fermbiz]

I think Marathon will be the exception All other live shit games will fail.

 

[nial]

I think only one or two will succeed in the sense of becoming mainstream and printing money.

Others will either flop or find a niche.

yeah, basically the last part

 

[ZehDon]

I imagine virtually all of them will fail. GaaS titles demand insane amounts of time and money from players. Launching lots of them means Sony will be competing against themselves for that time and money, and, because players don't have infinite amounts of either, players will quickly drop many of these titles just as they do the dozens of failed GaaS that litter Steam.

I also imagine a good number will launch in a pretty bad state. It seems Naughty Dog's first attempt was a non-starter, and they're having to re-work the core of their TLOU GaaS. Sony's support studios and internal QA were all re-configured for single player cinematic games across the last two gens. That won't change overnight, meaning their ability to service that many GaaS isn't strong. Sony are clearly putting a lot of stock in Bungie to drive success here, but the current state of Destiny 2 leaves a lot to be desired. If Bungie is serving as their guide into the world of GaaS, I can only imagine Bungie will push for dark patterns and content grinds at the heart of many of these games. That's not why fans buy PlayStation.

It all adds up to my expectations of several low quality titles from their small studios, some high quality titles from their larger studios that die due to content droughts and a lack of experience, and maybe one that truly lands strong - but no where near the Fortnite-level juggernaut Ryan is gambling for.

 

[Men_in_Boxes]

I imagine virtually all of them will fail. GaaS titles demand insane amounts of time and money from players. Launching lots of them means Sony will be competing against themselves for that time and money, and, because players don't have infinite amounts of either, players will quickly drop many of these titles just as they do the dozens of failed GaaS that litter Steam.

The question ye must answer for yourself is a simple one.

If what ye say is true, why does PlayStation not see it?

Surely, this idea has been brought forth to PlayStations leadership. Why have they disregarded it and tripled down on GAAS? If you can answer that question, then you are on the path to becoming a high level gamer.

 

[Crayon]

Marathon is going to slay. Of the rest? Who knows. After a game being moderately fun and regularly updated, the success seems so random.

 

[Jinzo Prime]

The Marathon hype is real, and Bungie has been a hit factory since the early 2000's. Fairgame$ has no chance, Concord is a toss up.

 

[Thirty7ven]

It’s not possible to predict unless it comes from a proven studio. Marathon has the best chance, a lot of hype for that.

 

[vivftp]

Without quantifying what is considered a success or a failure, we can't say. If a game recoups its dev/marketing costs and earns a decent profit, then that could possibly be considered a success and it won't have to be the next Fortnite or Genshin Impact to do so. SIEs lives service games are going to run the gamut in terms of scope, team size and budgets.

Most (80%+), hopefully.

I'd prefer they stick with what worked instead of going down this route.

It's like some folks still don't understand. All of these steps - the live service games, PlayStation productions, premium subscriptions, premium accessories, expanding to more platforms, acquiring more studios than ever before and expanding existing studios... all of that, is designed to help SIE grow and become more self sufficient to weather any storm that may come. Traditional game budgets have ballooned over the last decade and by expanding their footprint in new ways and opening up new revenue streams, SIE are ensuring they have a stronger overall business to help keep funding all those wonderful traditional games that everyone loves. A rising tide lifts all boats and all of these new initiatives are designed to fortify SIEs flotilla to ensure to help ensure none of them sink.

Hoping that the live service games fail is also hoping that one of the revenue streams that will help fund their traditional games will also fail. Every single person who loves Sonys traditional games should be hoping that SIE finds great success with the live service games so they can remain self sufficient and fund even more projects on the whole. Wishing for them to fail would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. It's honestly stupid to wish that they fail.

 

[Solidus_T]

They really only need one to do well to make ungodly amounts of money, but yeah I'm betting that most of them will be done within a year or two. By most, I mean maybe only a couple will remain and do well.

 

[Arkangelus0]

Without quantifying what is considered a success or a failure, we can't say. If a game recoups its dev/marketing costs and earns a decent profit, then that could possibly be considered a success and it won't have to be the next Fortnite or Genshin Impact to do so. SIEs lives service games are going to run the gamut in terms of scope, team size and budgets.




It's like some folks still don't understand. All of these steps - the live service games, PlayStation productions, premium subscriptions, premium accessories, expanding to more platforms, acquiring more studios than ever before and expanding existing studios... all of that, is designed to help SIE grow and become more self sufficient to weather any storm that may come. Traditional game budgets have ballooned over the last decade and by expanding their footprint in new ways and opening up new revenue streams, SIE are ensuring they have a stronger overall business to help keep funding all those wonderful traditional games that everyone loves. A rising tide lifts all boats and all of these new initiatives are designed to fortify SIEs flotilla to ensure to help ensure none of them sink.

Hoping that the live service games fail is also hoping that one of the revenue streams that will help fund their traditional games will also fail. Every single person who loves Sonys traditional games should be hoping that SIE finds great success with the live service games so they can remain self sufficient and fund even more projects on the whole. Wishing for them to fail would be like cutting off your nose to spite your face. It's honestly stupid to wish that they fail.

100% this

SE get alot of bad blood, but thanks to the money of the ff14 MMO, SE published tons of Games in 2022, more then EA, Activision and ubisoft combined

 

[kvltus lvlzvs]

I'm hoping - no, praying - for 100%

 

[diffusionx]

Marathon and factions are the only ones, the rest die within 9 months of release

factions already died

 

[vivftp]

I'm hoping - no, praying - for 100%

Case in point of someone who just doesn't get it.

 

[Arkangelus0]

factions already died

Factions become his own game, its not a multiplayer Mode anymore, thats why its was delayed

 

[vivftp]

factions already died

TLOU Online is not dead. It's still being worked on and the report is that they're taking Bungies feedback into consideration for retuning aspects of the game. That's precisely what Bungie was brought on board to do so it's great that we're seeing constructive feedback being given to try and make the best possible game.

 

[diffusionx]

TLOU Online is not dead. It's still being worked on and the report is that they're taking Bungies feedback into consideration for retuning aspects of the game. That's precisely what Bungie was brought on board to do so it's great that we're seeing constructive feedback being given to try and make the best possible game.

lol, this sounds like cope. it was already mired in dev hell, then got pushed back indefinitely and "scaled back" while they also simultaneously said they were going to focus on a singleplayer game. Reminder that TLOU2 came out in 2020! It was almost 3 years! And now it is in Metroid Prime 4 territory.

I really have doubts if we will ever see this.

 

[Arkangelus0]

lol, this sounds like cope. it was already mired in dev hell, then got pushed back indefinitely and "scaled back" while they also simultaneously said they were going to focus on a singleplayer game. Reminder that TLOU2 came out in 2020! It was almost 3 years! And now it is in Metroid Prime 4 territory.

I really have doubts if we will ever see this.

Half of the Industry know Bloomberg talked shit because ND hire and make alot of interviews 2 weeks before that headpiece, in fact in LinkedIn many people moved to ND because the game got expanded recently

 

[diffusionx]

Half of the Industry know Bloomberg talked shit because ND hire and make alot of interviews 2 weeks before that headpiece, in fact in LinkedIn many people moved to ND because the game got expanded recently

if the game was doing so great then they should, you know, show something of it. FFS they showed a video of FairGame$, which is being made by a studio formed after TLOU2 came out.

 

[vivftp]

lol, this sounds like cope. it was already mired in dev hell, then got pushed back indefinitely and "scaled back" while they also simultaneously said they were going to focus on a singleplayer game. Reminder that TLOU2 came out in 2020! It was almost 3 years! And now it is in Metroid Prime 4 territory.

I really have doubts if we will ever see this.

if the game was doing so great then they should, you know, show something of it. FFS they showed a video of FairGame$, which is being made by a studio formed after TLOU2 came out.

It's not mired in dev hell. Games take 4 to 5 years on average to ship and 3 years since TLOU2 shipped means we're still well within that time frame. This isn't a tacked on MP mode, it's a fully stand alone title.

Last year Neil said they'd show more about the game this year, meaning they were getting ready to peel back the curtain. They still might as we've got a few more months to go. We can only guess how the Bungie review has affected their launch timetable of the game. Either way, that's what Bungie was brought on to do, to provide feedback on these games to help ensure success.

Fairgames having a CG trailer had no bearing on TLOU MP and it's development. There's no correlation

 

[diffusionx]

It's not mired in dev hell. Games take 4 to 5 years on average to ship and 3 years since TLOU2 shipped means we're still well within that time frame. This isn't a tacked on MP mode, it's a fully stand alone title.

Last year Neil said they'd show more about the game this year, meaning they were getting ready to peel back the curtain. They still might as we've got a few more months to go. We can only guess how the Bungie review has affected their launch timetable of the game. Either way, that's what Bungie was brought on to do, to provide feedback on these games to help ensure success.

Fairgames having a CG trailer had no bearing on TLOU MP and it's development. There's no correlation

They were working on it before TLOU2 shipped, just cut it from the main game because they wanted to get TLOU2 out the door and wanted to work on it longer. Fine, but then 3 years later, they announced an indefinite delay while also mentioning another singleplayer game. Other reports say it is in dev hell. They said nothing about Bungie feedback and in any case, Destiny 2 stinks lol. In fact, considering it came around the time that Sony canceled some other games, I am more likely to believe that they didn't like what they saw from it and told ND to go back to the drawing board (at least). I don't see why anyone should be optimistic about this until they actually show something concrete about this game, like footage, plans, release date, etc.

The point about FairGame$ is that this brand new studio was formed, a team had to be built from nothing, and they showed off the game. All this was done in a time frame that was less than what we have so far from a very established studio showing off a game mode that is a successor to a mode they packed in one of their other games. Grim.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

Bungie will always succeed. TBD for the rest, but I guess 50-80% will "fail" (meaning, not long term engagement), but that win rate may be a success for Sony?

 

[LordCBH]

80% are going to bomb spectacularly. But all they need is one to strike gold.

 

[Shifty1897]

They only need one to succeed.

Most of them will fail, some will survive, and only a few will hit it big.

That should be the motivation for all the first party studios. Either make a GaaS game that survives or be a bitch support studio for the ones that do survive.

 

[tryDEATH]

Maybe 1 if they're lucky, I just feel they're so hard to pull off and I am not even sure if there is enough room for another one or two such games.

However, if there is one studio than Bungie got the best odds they just got to sell an extraction shooter for the masses, which hasn't happened yet so there is a possibility.

I do like PS expanding their net when it comes to genre's, hopefully we see more of it.

 

[GigaBowser]

Whys they wasting resources on this instead of Bloodborne 2? Looks at Elden Rings sales people wants real games

 

[diffusionx]

Whys they wasting resources on this instead of Bloodborne 2? Looks at Elden Rings sales people wants real games

a successful gaashit game makes more money every quarter than bloodborne has made since it came out in 2015.

 

[bender]

They will all succeed and I will play them all endlessly in the land of chocolate.

 

[DrFigs]

I don't think sony expects these games to last for many years. What success looks like for Marathon or Last of Us Multiplayer is very different than what success will look like for Helldivers 2. I think most of these games will perform about as well as Sony expects them to. I mean is the next Gran Turismo and MLB considered part of their GAAS push? Those games will probably do well. I think 20-49% fail rate sounds right. But closer to the 20% side of things.

 

[killatopak]

a successful gaashit game makes more money every quarter than bloodborne has made since it came out in 2015.

True but Bloodborne and the likes are prestige games meant to entice people to the platform and make gaas game visible.

I consider it to be like a doctor giving candy to a child before giving the syringe.