Dont knock Baphomet statues. They are pretty boss.
Why is Hillary guaranteed to win?
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Dont knock Baphomet statues. They are pretty boss.
Trump is appealing to the hard right. That's not populist.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
That's not how it works.
Trump has the highest unelectable rating among candidates basically. Sure, he has a group of people who support him, but they are vastly outnumbered by the number of people who would never, ever consider him as a candidate. He would get swept, it would be a blood bath.
Team Alucard
Banned
In what world is Trump a populist?
His entire campaign is based entirely on appealing to people who hate hispanics.That's literally it, he has no policy positions outside of immigration.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Ehh, Trump is appealing mostly to nationalists and that makes up a lot of the "moderate" part of America.
I'm not! She could rock one.
When a person asks others to explain another candidates major platforms to them, while they are simultaneously cheerleading another candidate, it really says something about the person demanding those answers.
And_Gignac
Member
He is the definition of populism. Just right-wing, anti establishment populism.
Europe has plenty of this over the top, anti immigration "populist". UKIP, Marine Le Pen, etc. Specially Marine Le Pen (he is not even 1% as smart as her, though).
And this "grassroots movement" is going to do what, precisely, to get over the insane hurdles in Congress? Fix the currently obscenely gerrymandered system, by maybe participating in the Census this time? Burn Congress to the ground?
By what measure is this "grassroots" movement going to actually affect change? By what measure is Bernie "not taking it [from the people]" once he magically becomes president would actually change even the tiniest element of what is actually preventing that change from occurring?
I support many of Bernie's policies. But I actually understand how the political system functions, and I don't think he has remotely made the leap yet to actually figuring out how he would transport that grassroots movement into practical political change.
He doesn't appeal to most of the population, so populist doesn't fit.
Third Strike
Member
http://www.270towin.com/maps/56X3N
Same as 2012, but Florida would be up in the air. Wouldn't matter, though.
Edit: Eh, ignore NC. It should be red, but NC will also be a major battleground state.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Right, so me not liking her because she comes off as arrogant has me calling her a bitch? Uh, ok...for the record, you are implying a lot.
Why can't you want to have both? A likable candidate that also stands for what you want? It doesn't have to be either or. Obama proved that. Hell, the most likable candidate out there isn't even running.
Warren is the best of both worlds, imo.
Syph Medwes
Member
lol you mean her campaign advisors know how to pander to today's socially connected youth
BertramCooper
Banned
There have actually been multiple Bernie supporters on GAF suggest that Bernie has "crossover appeal" to moderate Republicans.
And_Gignac
Member
I am mostly using populism as a synonymous to "demagogue".
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
If you're already expecting results, you didn't get the message. /twirl
it's a shame those blue collar workers are too busy making a living to get on the Internet and research how much Hilliary has shifted her views over the years to gain popularity.
and lol at people still using the term 'hipster' to describe someone.
Yep, you could just be nice and throw Bush Virginia and Ohio and it still wouldn't matter. Which just goes to show the monumental task the Republicans have in winning the White House in this day and age.
God help the GOP in a few more elections when Texas is a toss up state.
Exactly. Tell me how this grassroots can be counted on in the election below when they were not there in 2010 nor 2014. The next Census will only cover what is white below on the 2nd map with NJ, VA, LA, KY, & MS in odd number years.
Warren isn't running. Maybe in 2024 you will get that chance. As for right now you are literally arguing that you will not vote for a candidate because you don't think she does well in the superficial pageant of media likability. You sound worse then a Palin supporter right now. All about image and nothing about substance. To the point you are going to take your ball and go home if she is nominated.
Bernie Sanders won't beat her for the democratic nom since he doesn't appeal to moderate democrats, and no republican stands a chance in the general election since their party is so splintered between moderate voters and far-right wing lunatics that it's impossible to appeal to one of these groups without pissing off the other.
Vicetrailia
Banned
There are no guarantees and she will of course need to fight really hard like any contender would, but she has a very strong advantage. She's just not so advantaged that she can ignore Bernie's policies.
SenjutsuSage
Banned
The ground swell for a qualified female president, when all is said and done, will completely overrun whoever her opponent happens to be. Women in this country, as well as many men, want this to happen. Many will also see electing Hillary as the surest way possible to protect President Obama's agenda as well as all the progress that has been made during his two terms as President.
Maybe it's a bit much to say she's guaranteed to win, but she's the heavy favorite to win, and for damn good reason. There isn't another Barack Obama showing up to stop her in this election cycle, not on the Democratic side (although I do love Bernie Sanders), and for damn sure not on the Republican side.
Maybe it's a bit much to say she's guaranteed to win, but she's the heavy favorite to win, and for damn good reason. There isn't another Barack Obama showing up to stop her in this election cycle, not on the Democratic side (although I do love Bernie Sanders), and for damn sure not on the Republican side.
PHOENIXZERO
Member
GOP candidates are so awful that it's hard to imagine any of them winning. The Democrats could put a pinata against them and it'd probably win.
Anyone who pays attention to politics knows a couple things:
1) Trump will not be the nominee. He'll flame out. Republicans always play footsy with wackos in the early part of the process. Herman Cain was frontrunner for the 2012 nomination for a time. The republicans will end up with an establishment type pick in the end. Someone like Jeb Bush (not sure if it'll be Jeb or not, but it won't be one of the cartoon characters).
2) Hillary is not guaranteed at all to be the nominee. She is the most likely candidate if you look at it now in 2015, but looking at things now in 2015 is completely pointless. You can't forecast politics a year in advance.
1) Trump will not be the nominee. He'll flame out. Republicans always play footsy with wackos in the early part of the process. Herman Cain was frontrunner for the 2012 nomination for a time. The republicans will end up with an establishment type pick in the end. Someone like Jeb Bush (not sure if it'll be Jeb or not, but it won't be one of the cartoon characters).
2) Hillary is not guaranteed at all to be the nominee. She is the most likely candidate if you look at it now in 2015, but looking at things now in 2015 is completely pointless. You can't forecast politics a year in advance.
Several reasons.
Its not a lock because she could always lose but she has the best chance out of everyone running to get the nomination.
- She has name recognition.
- She has already shown that she has the ability to raise a ton of money. She will need to raise $1 billion like Obama did in order to win but she's shown that she can do this.
- The republican base is crazy which is allowing guys like Trump to get a ton attention just by saying something ridiculous. Instead of letting guys that could actually win a general (like Kasich or Rubio). They let Trump get all the airtime which just makes the entire party look clownish.
- Demographics are such that the Democratic nominee is all but guaranteed the presidency. Democrats don't even need Ohio and Florida anymore to win while Republicans do plus they need an upset somewhere.
Its not a lock because she could always lose but she has the best chance out of everyone running to get the nomination.
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
...
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
That doesn't sound like him it all. I remember them trying to get OFA and others involved in swaying minds with the stimulus and healthcare and failing disastrously. Revisionist history at its finest right there.
Face it Tiger..
Banned
and even then the electoral college makes it even harder as more liberal states have more votes.
I see way more Sanders supporters attacking Hillary/Hillary supporters than the reverse. I haven't seen Hillary talk about Sanders at all really actually.
Personally, I like Clinton and Sanders both and think both would be good presidents. I also believe that Sanders will not win the nomination. He's very welcome to run, and I hope he's able to push his message far, but the full-on Sanders supporters bashing Clinton and saying she's not a real liberal, wouldn't ever vote for her, etc.....really annoys me.
Liberals lose when they fight each other.
Anyway, I don't think Clinton is a lock to win the General Election either. She's the favorite, that's all. Things can go wrong. Americans have VERY short memories. Most people just think "my life isn't perfect right now, and a Dem was president for 8 years, TIME FOR A CHANGE!" I just want to make sure we don't end up with another nightmare scenario Republican in the White House in 2017.
Biff
Member
This post should be an automatic first-reply to any Bernie thread.
Sometimes it's easy to forget how small and UNrepresentative this forum is of the entire USA.
politics shouldn't be a contest about who has the biggest dick and most money. never change America
airmangataosenai
Member
Why do you keep posting this map? New Hampshire and Virginia are far from sure things, and Iowa/Colorado have consistently been more blue than either one for a while.
Gnome Scat
Member
She's not. What happened in '08 is starting to happen again.
The national election is all about demographics. When the Repulican party continues to alienate most of those demos, the Democrats are assured the presidency. Hillary is the front runner right now, but pretty much whoever ends up in the democratic driver's seat is going to walk away with this election. The candidates kind of don't matter.
You actually think Trump will be the nominee?
$20 paypal says he won't. Any takers?
It shouldnt be, and that is why it is insanely important that a Democrat wins the White House.
The best chance this country has at taking money out of politics is through a liberal supreme court and getting political re-districting under control.
If Sanders supporters want to realistically have a socialist be competitive on the national stage they better not get all whiny and take their ball and go home when Sanders likely doesnt get the nomination.
Because Hilary will become their best chance to move toward a system that will give underdog candidates like Sanders a true fighting chance. Because undoing Citizens United through liberal court appointments and being in an advantageous position during the next redistricting process is the best first step true champions of election reform can hope for. Sitting out, voting third party or protest voting should be off the table.
Third Strike
Member
What exactly is happening?
She isn't. The average American doesn't vote because they agree with the candidates views, they vote because blue or red. In addition to that, they vote for whomever they hear about most. Trump is an entertainer, if he wins the nomination, then I'm pretty positive there's a good chance he'll win. BUT, the American voting system isn't exactly fair, so we never know who's gonna win!
gutter_trash
Banned
New Hampshire is classic Republican but not Neo-Con Republican nor Tea Party Republican.
As long as the GOP continues to veer too far Right, NH will be more comfortable at voting for establishment Hillary
Arrogant Bastard
Banned
No where close. Sanders is missing key demographics that Hillary has all but locked up.
Of course not. I just found it slightly humorous that your first statement started with Trump will not be the nominee and that your second statement ended with you cannot forecast politics a year in advance.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Apparently Bernie Sanders is Barack Obama all of a sudden.
You're using coded language and haven't said anything of substance besides "she thinks it's her turn so I'll never vote for her!" when you're describing an attribute of almost every single major presidential candidate. Every single political candidate believes they should be president. This is not something that is just a Hillary phenomena. To argue as much shows a naive view of the American political system.
And who the fuck cares if she's likable as long as she's making the correct policy decisions?
How does she come off as arrogant? You keep saying this but is there any actual evidence towards her supposed arrogance compared to any other candidate? Or we're just supposed to believe that Hillary is a power hungry bitch because reasons?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
1) What happened in 2012 does not equal what republicans "always" do. Before 2008, Republicans pretty much always knew exactly who they wanted to be the nominee before anyone even announced a campaign. Trump might not be the nominee, but that doesn't mean this will play out like 2012. Endorsements and favorability ratings are the bigger predictors of Trump's fall, but that might be the first time that doesn't matter.
2) It would be completely unprecedented in almost every way if Hillary is not the nominee. The huge lead she has over has never been overcome since poling first became a thing, (Carter v Kennedy being the odd exception, but Bernie isn't the incumbent president). Bernie has the same endorsement problem Trump has, but also has the problem of money and still has to make up a lot of ground. There's a first time for everything, but Bernie is still a very long shot.
I can forecast a year in advance that a cartoon character won't win. Trump, the brain surgeon who said Obama care is worse than slavery, Herman Cain -- They're all the same and they don't ever win, even though they may poll high with the base at certain points early in the process. Anyone who thinks Trump or anyone else from the "clown car" will get the nomination or even win the general is absolutely crazy and/or just not good at this.
Which of the viable candidates will win isn't something you can be productive in forecasting a year out, though. For all I know it'll be Martin O'Malley or Jim Webb. You just never know at this point.
I feel like a broken record but people really need to understand basic civics, in particular the electoral college. The Republicans, and especially Trump, do not fair well under the current system as it stands. It isn't exactly a sure thing for Hillary but it definitely isn't "anyones game" as people are trying to paraphrase it. Hillary has a huge built in advantage against any Republican.
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