If Nintendo implements cloud computing as the core of their online experience, I'll be thrilled, but I wonder if that's is kind of tech innovation that wins over the masses. Sony implemented cloud saves recently with little to no reaction.
I think what Nintendo is struggling with right now is: "CoD#... how do we make it work on the Cafè?".
Just look at the % split between X360 and PS3 SKUs. Why does the X360 version almost always sell more? A big part of the reason is the online community. That's the real headstart MS had (some could argue with the XBox), and it still matters today. And I'm not persuaded a free sevice is a smart idea.
It may be Marketing 01, but a cheap service that makes the core customer feel "safe" (cough PSN fiasco cough) and at the same time pushes him to validate the money is spent can move units. Once again, PSN didn't take over XBoxLIVE even if it was free. And if you want to persuade a new audience that the new service you're offering is special, and works, and you want to make sure they don't take it for granted but treat it as a core function (since they pay for it and want to make the most of it), then giving it away for free may not be the best choice.
XBoXLIVE Gold, when it all began, was marketed as an innovative extra, and it worked that way. It may sound counter intuitive, but it's very hard to "sell" something if you don't ask anything for it, and if Nintendo has to compete with MS for the online community (once again, on the same games), I think they have a better shot if they go for the route of offering a service that is BETTER than XBoxLIVE and cost the same, then offering a service that is the same and costs nothing.