Wii U Speculation Thread The Third: Casting Dreams in The Castle of Miyamoto

The locales, level design, characters and environments, action set pieces ...all good. Tainted by terrible voice acting, bizarro AI villain plot and where's waldo crap.

The level design and environments were rather subpar imo. I don't see the problem with the VA, the dialouge they are reading is bad not the voices themselves. By comparison to the average game the VA is pretty competent.
 
In short, I don't get why people would want Sakamoto away from the franchise.
All the parts he wouldn't budge on in Other M were the parts everyone hated the most.

Sakamoto wrote that script, didn't he? And he was the one who INSISTED on it being THE BABY THE BABY THE BABY THE BABY the whole time.

Keep that dude away from writing anything in the next Metroid, please.
For real. Don't even give him a single dialogue box.
 
So Microsoft is building a high powered console because of input from 3rd parties and you think those third parties aren't going to focus on that console?

"Hey Microsoft, spend billions of dollars building this high tech console so we can up port WiiU stuff. Thanks"

What would be the point of them all wanting that power if they aren't going to use it and build games based around the specs they are convincing Microsoft to incorporate?

Isn't Nintendo doing the same thing? They're asking developers what they want in a console and they're giving input. Wouldn't it make sense that they'd support the Wii U as well?
 
The game play was cumbersome. It should have stayed 2.5D like Sakamoto wanted. Keep Hayashi away from Metroid. And you away from Sakamoto. Everyone is happy.

Storyline? MGS4 storyline was atrocious. FFXIII story line was not only the horrible but 40 hours long. But whatever. If the game is good. The game is good. We need a sidescrolling Metroid on 3DS from Sakamoto's team.

After the fallout of NG3 I'm more than willing to give Sakamoto the benefit of the doubt. Team Ninja appears to be in a lot worse shape than I thought. I agree we need another sidescrolling game as well. 3DS seems likely.

As far as MGS4, I don't understand the hate this game gets. Aside from the story dragging in a few spots, I thought it was the best game in the series so far. I thought it tied up the stroy line well, but I'm not a hardcore follower of the series.
 
The difference is that Nintendo isn't giving them what they want.

Says who? Gearbox, Team Ninja, Vigil, and (iirc) Crytek have all said nintendo has been exceptionally good about taking in feedback and responding appropriately this time around.

Oh wait, you know all there is to know about its specs already and those are just corporate mouth pieces. Whoopsie!
 
I still don't get the logic.

Game worlds can already be really damn huge (Just Cause 2 for instance). They can also be very damn interactive. (again Just Cause 2)

The hardware isn't a limiting factor anymore. And there's only so much you can do to improve the look of a bush or rock.

I really don't get it. Spending billions for what will amount to be a fairly minor visual change.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_(game)

I wouldn't know where to begin in estimating the payoff matrices, so I leave it as an exercise for the reader. Remember that third parties are playing as well under the current hypothetical.
 
Says who? Gearbox, Team Ninja, Vigil, and (iirc) Crytek have all said nintendo has been exceptionally good about taking in feedback and responding appropriately this time around.

Oh wait, you know all there is to know about its specs already and those are just corporate mouth pieces. Whoopsie!

I know nothing.
What I said is based on this:
They asked publishers and developers what they need in a next-gen system

EA, Activision, DICE, and Epic all insisted on raising the ceiling by what we would traditionally consider a generational leap.

So, unless Nintendo is actually giving them what they would traditionally consider a generational leap, I don't see how my statement is wrong.
 
Says who? Gearbox, Team Ninja, Vigil, and (iirc) Crytek have all said nintendo has been exceptionally good about taking in feedback and responding appropriately this time around.

Oh wait, you know all there is to know about its specs already and those are just corporate mouth pieces. Whoopsie!

It's interesting that you point this out. One of the main things that stood out to me from Mr. Donald with Vigil in the video was that he said Nintendo has been slow.
 
I know nothing.
What I said is based on this:


So, unless Nintendo is actually giving them what they would traditionally consider a generational leap, I don't see how my statement is wrong.

Dude, it's second hand knowledge. We have no way of knowing for sure what devs are saying directly to nintendo or microsoft or how receptive they've been other than the few positive comments made about the wii u.

Also, having 8-10x current gen as the standard for next gen would not be a good thing for the industry. It would be a very very bad thing. MS will make a pittance if anything at all. Console adoption will be as bad as it was for PS360 at the beginning of this gen. More studios will close. Game prices will likely go up. Bullshit DLC would become even more common. Insane DRMs will be employed. This sounds like a list of worst case scenarios and doom-spewing, but all of those things happened this gen and would only be exacerbated of Sony and MS followed that path.

It's interesting that you point this out. One of the main things that stood out to me from Mr. Donald with Vigil in the video was that he said Nintendo has been slow.

Yeah that occurred to me too. iirc, it's the first complaint we've heard in that vein.
 
Based on the Japanese Garden and Zelda demos, running on early kits, in early form, I think Nintendo is giving us just enough graphical prowess for most gamers. Even if it doesn't satisfy NeoGAF. Things can only improve and I cannot wait to see what Nintendo shows at E3.
 
Also, having 8-10x current gen as the standard for next gen would not be a good thing for the industry. It would be a very very bad thing. MS will make a pittance if anything at all. Console adoption will be as bad as it was for PS360 at the beginning of this gen. More studios will close. Game prices will likely go up. Bullshit DLC would become even more common. Insane DRMs will be employed. This sounds like a list of worst case scenarios and doom-spewing, but all of those things happened this gen and would only be exacerbated of Sony and MS followed that path.

Can you explain the reasoning behind some of these points?
 
Not in and of itself. But the hypothesis under discussion is that EA and ActiVision want new hardware to enable pushing production budgets even higher. The hardware alone wouldn't necessitate spending more money than you did on your high-end 360/PS3 projects, but you'd be outclassed by "AAAA" software unless you increased your own budget as well.

Ahh OK. I hereby declare the games industry batshit insane.

That's what I've been saying.
Nintendo games in HD will be enough to buy the console.
We're literally going from Gamecube to Wii U.

This is a dangerous view to have IMO. I don't want a repeat of the the Wii generation and I bet Nintendo doesn't either.

More or less impossible, imo. You're going to have to compromise somewhere since few people have infinite time and money. It's just a matter of trying to find where you come out the most ahead.

Sure, thing is I am not going to go through another generation compromising on 3rd party games. Not saying it's going to happen, but if MS and Sony go mega hard out in specs and Wii U doesn't, who knows.

It's interesting that you point this out. One of the main things that stood out to me from Mr. Donald with Vigil in the video was that he said Nintendo has been slow.

So basically, Nintendo don't really care too much about Vigil and they're getting kits about 3 iterations old. :)

Also, having 8-10x current gen as the standard for next gen would not be a good thing for the industry. It would be a very very bad thing. MS will make a pittance if anything at all. Console adoption will be as bad as it was for PS360 at the beginning of this gen. More studios will close. Game prices will likely go up. Bullshit DLC would become even more common. Insane DRMs will be employed. This sounds like a list of worst case scenarios and doom-spewing, but all of those things happened this gen and would only be exacerbated of Sony and MS followed that path.

I don't see how one follows from the other. I don't think power has anything to do with shit DLC and insane DRM, it's just the philosophy of the publishers. Bring on 8 - 10x I say - or more accurately - bring on as much damned power as you can for a sensible cost, whatever that may be. For me it's about the US$350-$400 mark. I'll also add, if Nintendo has to eat some losses for a while or maybe a smaller profit to get there, then I want them to do it.

Of course, I'm not expecting Nintendo to go all out spec wise, I just want to be impressed by the visuals, and have a console that will get all the 3rd party ports for the next generation.
 
Can you explain the reasoning behind some of these points?

Umm...every single one of those things happened this gen? And every single one was due to cost issues? Drastically increasing costs is only going to exacerbate those current issues.

Getting rid of mid-level developers is not good for the industry. We've seen similar things happen in other markets before, and it usually ends poorly.
 
Even the current Wii hasn't been fully tapped yet in terms of games it could have. There are hundreds of games I'd like to see on Wii that never happened. Not because of the old hardware either. Wii U represents a second chance for Nintendo to bring games out that many of us, well at least I, want to see.
 
So basically, Nintendo don't really care too much about Vigil and they're getting kits about 3 iterations old. :)

Heh. It might be a good indication of where Vigil is at in the pecking order.

Do you mean in regards to responding to the developer's feedback about the Wii U?

He seemed to say it in general before talking about not knowing the launch date and it being on par with current consoles.
 
Even the current Wii hasn't been fully tapped yet in terms of games it could have. There are hundreds of games I'd like to see on Wii that never happened. Not because of the old hardware either. Wii U represents a second chance for Nintendo to bring games out that many of us, well at least I, want to see.

THIS! There are DOZENS of games that I would've killed to see on Wii, which have no bearing on its power.

Loads of killer PS2 games could've made a lovely home on Wii (Klonoa 2 :(), same with GC games (Tales of Symphonia and Skies of Arcadia Legends with 16:9? I'll take 20).

As well as previously mentioned Wii ports of Sega's older arcade line-up.

So what if it's a list of ports, I would've loved them! What about NiGHTS, Panzer Dragoon, and Virtual On, all from the 3D Ages PS2 line-up on one disc? Want more awesome? Okay, include Thunderforce 6 and Seaman 2.

See, so many great opportunities that have nothing to do with power and everything to do with experiencing the games in a new way, or in a more convenient way, or at home period, whichever.

Hopefully Wii U will have more luck with these. :(
 
I don't see how one follows from the other. I don't think power has anything to do with shit DLC and insane DRM, it's just the philosophy of the publishers. Bring on 8 - 10x I say - or more accurately - bring on as much damned power as you can for a sensible cost, whatever that may be. For me it's about the US$350-$400 mark. I'll also add, if Nintendo has to eat some losses for a while or maybe a smaller profit to get there, then I want them to do it.

Of course, I'm not expecting Nintendo to go all out spec wise, I just want to be impressed by the visuals, and have a console that will get all the 3rd party ports for the next generation.

The reason one follows the other in practice is because in order to compete in production values costs will once again dramatically increase. This ethic makes sense to push for if you're a Activision, EA, Epic because you know you have the cash and engines that can wow the public and in doing so close out a lot of possible competition...based on not many being able to financially compete. That is the reality.

Basically, here's the gist. Epic wants to push the UE4 as well as lobby for as much power as possible for three reasons. One, it sells their new middleware. Two, if forces any developer not able to afford UE3/4 or able to financially compete out of the production value ballpark. Three, it allows them to market the middleware through proof of concept to as many viable studios as possible. All of this wouldn't be a issue though if so many gamers weren't so obsessed with intense graphics. Epic might actually need to do something new... But as you can see it creates a bad situation for other smaller/medium sized dev's to be competitive and break out successful AAA IP among these monsters. It also will be proxy of increasing costs, pass those onto the consumer, both in overt and implicit ways. Mandatory DLC, probably pay-to-play becoming popular for online or features, probable increased security and ways to negate used games sales. None of which really helps the "gamer" in any kind of way, and definitely doesn't help smaller/mid dev's.

And as a personal question, why specifically do you want "Bring on 8 - 10x I say - or more accurately - bring on as much damned power as you can for a sensible cost, whatever that may be.", what is it you think you will gain?
 
I'd love to see a sequel to Twilight Princess in a huge overworld with visuals that look like the Zelda demo. Finally we can have low-end CG-like graphics in HD on a Nintendo console. This thrills me to death. Finally we can have graphics that are much better than this GBC commercial http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVMMZHHGaDY with vastly better artwork and technical prowess.
 
I don't see how one follows from the other. I don't think power has anything to do with shit DLC and insane DRM, it's just the philosophy of the publishers.

While I think you're generally correct there, I don't think it would be as bad as it is today if games weren't so friggin expensive to make. I don't think we'd have as many games being shipped with with inaccessible finished content on the disc or as many big name publishers viewing used games as a major enemy to their profits.

There's also the problem with studios being closed after a single flop. That sure as hell isn't going to go away if it's going to cost even more to play with the big boys.
 
Umm...every single one of those things happened this gen? And every single one was due to cost issues? Drastically increasing costs is only going to exacerbate those current issues.

Getting rid of mid-level developers is not good for the industry. We've seen similar things happen in other markets before, and it usually ends poorly.

Aren't at least some of those increased costs due to the jump from SD to HD development? Wouldn't that be lessened/not as much of a jump this time? and the comment about MS making a pittance, as long as they don't have another RROD shouldn't they make more as long as they sell the same?

I'm actually curious about this not trying to be antagonistic but is there really any backup to your comment other than it happened this time it will happen again?
 
Heh. It might be a good indication of where Vigil is at in the pecking order.



He seemed to say it in general before talking about not knowing the launch date and it being on par with current consoles.



It may perhaps be that Nintendo is giving newer kits ASAP to the bigger players (ie. EA, Activision, Ubisoft) first, and/or they are aware of who is simply porting 360 games so they can hold on to the older kits if there is no rush to optimize the games more specific to the Wii U, so far as the controller is operational
 
I do wonder.
If MS and Sony are going to try and drive out smaller devs... wouldn't this be perfect for Nintendo?
Between the 3DS and Wii U, they could make a killing.
We shall see...

Aren't at least some of those increased costs due to the jump from SD to HD development? Wouldn't that be lessened/not as much of a jump this time? and the comment about MS making a pittance, as long as they don't have another RROD shouldn't they make more as long as they sell the same?

I'm actually curious about this not trying to be antagonistic but is there really any backup to your comment other than it happened this time it will happen again?



Costs will increase because they'll need more texture artists and they'll need more programmers and more everything, really.
Dev sizes were already insane this generation. It's just going to keep increasing, which will increase the cost to make games.
This is not a good way to build the industry. It works with movies because you can sell movies for cheap. You don't need $600 devices to go to a theater or play a DVD.
The movies don't cost $60+.

With gaming, increasing the systems and games each generation is just stupid.
 
Can you explain the reasoning behind some of these points?

It depends on where you believe the growth in sales revenue would come from. Do you believe that "AAAA" titles are capable of increasing overall consumer enthusiasm and spending on games? If not, the money is being diverted from other games and publishers. If the biggest players can exclude some of the small fry to the point that they're not releasing any titles, they can grab a bigger piece for themselves even if the whole pie starts shrinking.
 
While I think you're generally correct there, I don't think it would be as bad as it is today if games weren't so friggin expensive to make. I don't think we'd have as many games being shipped with with inaccessible finished content on the disc or as many big name publishers viewing used games as a major enemy to their profits.

There's also the problem with studios being closed after a single flop. That sure as hell isn't going to go away if it's going to cost even more to play with the big boys.

I'm conflicted about this train of thought.

On one hand, I understand the argument and the logic, and to a large degree, agree with it.

On the other hand, I want to see new boundaries set and pushed and welcome potentially much more powerful hardware
 
THIS! There are DOZENS of games that I would've killed to see on Wii, which have no bearing on its power.

Loads of killer PS2 games could've made a lovely home on Wii (Klonoa 2 :(), same with GC games (Tales of Symphonia and Skies of Arcadia Legends with 16:9? I'll take 20).

As well as previously mentioned Wii ports of Sega's older arcade line-up.

So what if it's a list of ports, I would've loved them! What about NiGHTS, Panzer Dragoon, and Virtual On, all from the 3D Ages PS2 line-up on one disc?

See, so many great opportunities that have nothing to do with power and everything to do with experiencing the games in a new way, or in a more convenient way, or at home period, whichever.

Hopefully Wii U will have more luck with these. :(

I see at least someone can at least somewhat see what I am talking about. Yeah, lots of older Sega arcade ports would be nice, I'd love games that are remakes on old Sega arcade hardware like Fantasy Zone II DX, made with System 16 specs, released on PS2. THAT is the kind of thing I'm talking about. Or how about a true Military Madness 3, not another remake of the original. What about Advance Wars on Wii? There are so many other things I cannot think of at the moment. Oh, how about 'Bomberman HD' based directly on Hi-Ten Bomberman. How about Namco's Tokyo Wars? So many other games I cannot think of right now...


I'm also glad Dragon Quest X is coming out for both Wii and Wii U.
 
I do wonder.
If MS and Sony are going to try and drive out smaller devs... wouldn't this be perfect for Nintendo?
Between the 3DS and Wii U, they could make a killing.
We shall see...

This depends on how well third party games sell; not every quality third party game sells (on any system) and not every third party game even from smaller devs, is good
 
It depends on where you believe the growth in sales revenue would come from. Do you believe that "AAAA" titles are capable of increasing overall consumer enthusiasm and spending on games? If not, the money is being diverted from other games and publishers. If the biggest players can exclude some of the small fry to the point that they're not releasing any titles, they can grab a bigger piece for themselves even if the whole pie is shrinking.

What I am asking for is if there is some back up information as to the cost of development will increase dramatically compared to this gen. I'm just interested to know.
 
I see at least someone can at least somewhat see what I am talking about. Yeah, lots of older Sega arcade ports would be nice, I'd love games that are remakes on old Sega arcade hardware like Fantasy Zone II DX, made with System 16 specs, released on PS2. THAT is the kind of thing I'm talking about. Or how about a true Military Madness 3, not another remake of the original. What about Advance Wars on Wii? There are so many other things I cannot think of at the moment. Oh, how about 'Bomberman HD' based directly on Hi-Ten Bomberman. How about Namco's Tokyo Wars? So many other games I cannot think of right now...


I'm also glad Dragon Quest X is coming out for both Wii and Wii U.

:)

I also see your other point,, like Nintendo making new entries in old favorites (to be fair, they certainly have! (DKCR, Kirby RTD)).

As well as devs period making games using the Wiimote THE RIGHT WAY, hell I came up with a neat, simplistic, and fun controls for a Billy Hatcher sequel.

I wish I was more excited for DQX, the MMO direction and overall look isn't really grabbing me, and I was excited for it, hoping it would be a real traditional RPG.

Hopefully the Wii U version really impresses.
 
What I am asking for is if there is some back up information as to the cost of development will increase dramatically compared to this gen. I'm just interested to know.
Dramatically is a shot in the dark. Costs rising, at least currently is just the way the industry is run. Every generation has seen markedly increasing development costs. Last gen was one of the biggest increases we'd seen yet.

Berto was just saying MS wants this last jump to seem small in comparison. Assets increase in complexity (only by degrees this time because poly's aren't the problem anymore. The problem is rendering all of them efficiently.)

Texture resolution is the most likely area of drastic change and art budgets are half the reason we see massive cost increases anyway.
 
What I am asking for is if there is some back up information as to the cost of development will increase dramatically compared to this gen. I'm just interested to know.

I don't know that anyone is claiming that it definitively will happen, but part of ShockingAlberto's rumored information was that Microsoft is going very high-end because EA, ActiVision, DICE, and Epic all want to pursue an aggressive, high production cost approach. It may or may not have any basis in reality, but for right now we can give our opinion about what would happen as a result.
 
You know, after reading the posts in this thread, I think if Nintendo (or Sony) did a moderate update to the current setup and then made it easier for mid level developers and indie developers to make stuff, then that would be better for everyone around. Sure Epic wouldn't get their super high spec'd machine, but the machines that would be available to people would be affordable for everyone and spec'd high enough to do a little more than they could this generation. Trying to jump to 10x the current console level just doesn't seem like a good idea.
 
I think people need to accept that Nintendo started a generational reset with Wii. WiiU will be at least a full generation leap from Wii, which means slightly more powerful than current gen for the other 2 consoles. It works well for me because I usually wait until the end of any gen to buy non Nintendo consoles. WiiU can be a port machine for the previous gen and play new Nintendo games. I think Nintendo knows many Wii owners didnt own or play the other consoles this gen, and that for another 2 years WiiU will be able to play all the big new third party games. Theyre a very smart company. By the time the other 2 release new consoles WiiU will already be firmly entrenched in to most homes and by the time thr other consoles hit their stride it will be time for a new Nintendo console.
 
I do wonder.
If MS and Sony are going to try and drive out smaller devs... wouldn't this be perfect for Nintendo?
Between the 3DS and Wii U, they could make a killing.
We shall see...

I was actually thinking the same. If that were to play out Steam and NiN could theoretically be the go-to for a lot of Indie projects, assuming NiN is worth a damn.

But for mid-sized dev's who want to really score reasonable and have competitive games, it's almost the worst case scenario playing out. On one hand you have the choice to release on all systems, which will probably be the best bet but you're still competing against a rising tide. Or you could hedge your bets and try to compete with Acti/EA/Epic/Crytek on the PS4/X3 side, which unlike this gen will not be as approachable. Or, you're still stuck having to compete against Nintendo's huge IP and 3rd party sells history, or trying to make the first splash there. In the end it's just bad news for mid-sized teams with big ambition, who used to be the most important kind of developer.

So either way, the Steam option for ambitious games from smaller teams is looking better and better every day.
 
I don't know that anyone is claiming that it definitively will happen, but part of ShockingAlberto's rumored information was that Microsoft is going very high-end because EA, ActiVision, DICE, and Epic all want to pursue an aggressive, high production cost approach. It may or may not have any basis in reality, but for right now we can give our opinion about what would happen as a result.

guek is definatley difininitavely claiming that will happen.

Dramatically is a shot in the dark. Costs rising, at least currently is just the way the industry is run. Every generation has seen markedly increasing development costs. Last gen was one of the biggest increases we'd seen yet.

Berto was just saying MS wants this last jump to seem small in comparison. Assets increase in complexity (only by degrees this time because poly's aren't the problem anymore. The problem is rendering all of them efficiently.)

Texture resolution is the most likely area of drastic change and art budgets are half the reason we see massive cost increases anyway.


Costs will increase because they'll need more texture artists and they'll need more programmers and more everything, really.
Dev sizes were already insane this generation. It's just going to keep increasing, which will increase the cost to make games.
This is not a good way to build the industry. It works with movies because you can sell movies for cheap. You don't need $600 devices to go to a theater or play a DVD.
The movies don't cost $60+.


Thanks this is what i was looking for. Although your movie analogy is a little off if you are talking cost/time even short games are 6 hours so thats 4 x movies although I'm just being a bit pedantic I don't find movie analogies generally good since the industries are so different.
 
The reason one follows the other in practice is because in order to compete in production values costs will once again dramatically increase. This ethic makes sense to push for if you're a Activision, EA, Epic because you know you have the cash and engines that can wow the public and in doing so close out a lot of possible competition...based on not many being able to financially compete. That is the reality.

And as a personal question, why specifically do you want "Bring on 8 - 10x I say - or more accurately - bring on as much damned power as you can for a sensible cost, whatever that may be.", what is it you think you will gain?

I don't disagree there, however maybe what we will see is the creation of a middle tier in the industry. AAA "hollywood" titles by the big guns will retail for the highest price. Smaller devs who can't meet that budget will retail at a lower price, then the small indy games possibly even lower. I'm not sure this would be sustainable, I'm just trying to see what might come of it if what you say pans out.

Regarding what I'll gain: What I will get by a large jump is smoother framerates, more polygons (Bigger scenes realised) and better AI and physics. I realise that some games just don't need that sort of thing (NSBWii) but having more power for Zelda for a bigger and more realised Hyrule isn't a bad thing IMO. Don't get me wrong, I don't want companies to bankrupt themselves to get there of course and it's a shame to see smaller devs shutting down. In the end I want a healthy industry for everyone concerned, but I'm not going to hide the fact that I love smooth character models, great animation, beautiful effects and things like that.

While I think you're generally correct there, I don't think it would be as bad as it is today if games weren't so friggin expensive to make. I don't think we'd have as many games being shipped with with inaccessible finished content on the disc or as many big name publishers viewing used games as a major enemy to their profits.

There's also the problem with studios being closed after a single flop. That sure as hell isn't going to go away if it's going to cost even more to play with the big boys.

I agree, things seem to have got out of control this generation and the industry has become far more Hollywood like, ruthless and less scrupulous. Thing is, the industry is bound to grow and with that, budgets get bigger and productions larger and more dramatic. I guess that's what you get when you mix creativity with capitalism and vast sums of money.
 
guek is definatley difininitavely claiming that will happen.







Thanks this is what i was looking for. Although your movie analogy is a little off if you are talking cost/time even short games are 6 hours so thats 4 x movies although I'm just being a bit pedantic I don't find movie analogies generally good since the industries are so different.
Honestly the only area of the movie industry that has any comparison at all with gaming is CG movies.

And even that is a misnomer because they have direct control of camera angles. They can put hundreds of hours into detailing a bush because they know you'll see it in the frame.

To get anywhere close to CG movie fidelity in a game setting is either going to take a cool billion dollars. Or a really really short game.
 
What I am asking for is if there is some back up information as to the cost of development will increase dramatically compared to this gen. I'm just interested to know.

Other than increasing costs within this generation itself? High end game development costs in 2012 aren't what they were in 2006/7. I agree that the jump wont be as big as it was going from SD to HD, but making use of that extra horsepower isn't going to be free. We're talking larger, more complex games with more detailed assets. And even if costs didn't dramatically go UP, I think you could make the case that current costs are already too high. There have been too many competent studios closed this gen due to a single flop.

There's also the important issue of early adoption rates. If MS/Sony build monster consoles, they're going to have to take considerable losses and still will likely price them out of mass market range. Look at the first 2-3 years of 360/PS3 sales. They were mediocre at best. That takes a considerable toll on developers as well since their market is drastically smaller than it could be. It's incredibly important to the success of developers, especially smaller developers, that the platform itself is healthy.

guek is definatley difininitavely claiming that will happen.

Ok, I'll retract the attitude and apologize for that. It's just very far fetched to assume costs would go down next gen.
 
I do wonder.
If MS and Sony are going to try and drive out smaller devs... wouldn't this be perfect for Nintendo?
Between the 3DS and Wii U, they could make a killing.
We shall see...


.

Except it was Sony that released an really cheap Vita Indie sdk and not nintendo on the 3DS. :-( Bad nintendo...
 
It may perhaps be that Nintendo is giving newer kits ASAP to the bigger players (ie. EA, Activision, Ubisoft) first, and/or they are aware of who is simply porting 360 games so they can hold on to the older kits if there is no rush to optimize the games more specific to the Wii U, so far as the controller is operational

That's what I was getting at.
 
Other than increasing costs within this generation itself? High end game development costs in 2012 aren't what they were in 2006/7. I agree that the jump wont be as big as it was going from SD to HD, but making use of that extra horsepower isn't going to be free. We're talking larger, more complex games with more detailed assets. And even if costs didn't dramatically go UP, I think you could make the case that current costs are already too high. There have been too many competent studios closed this gen due to a single flop.

There's also the important issue of early adoption rates. If MS/Sony build monster consoles, they're going to have to take considerable losses and still will likely price them out of mass market range. Look at the first 2-3 years of 360/PS3 sales. They were mediocre at best. That takes a considerable toll on developers as well since their market is drastically smaller than it could be. It's incredibly important to the success of developers, especially smaller developers, that the platform itself is healthy.



Ok, I'll retract the attitude and apologize for that. It's just very far fetched to assume costs would go down next gen.

I wasn't suggesting they would go down but increasing to a doomsday state far beyond current gen I was interested to hear why that might be. I don't think pricing out of mass market range would be an issue. $300 is still the average price that a 360 is selling for they just need to get down to that price as soon as it's affordable (hopefully not more than 18 months in)


You'd have to ask guek about that but I'm working from the context in #9343.

I just had a thought. Maybe the cost of the extra A comes largely
entirely
from marketing expenses?

Link didn't work but I honestly can't see how marketing could go up compared to what they alreadt pump into stuff like Halo heh.
 
I wasn't suggesting they would go down but increasing to a doomsday state far beyond current gen I was interested to hear why that might be. I don't think pricing out of mass market range would be an issue. $300 is still the average price that a 360 is selling for they just need to get down to that price as soon as it's affordable (hopefully not more than 18 months in)




Link didn't work but I honestly can't see how marketing could go up compared to what they alreadt pump into stuff like Halo heh.

Halo was a special case.
That was Microsoft losing its fucking mind...
 
Ok, I'll retract the attitude and apologize for that. It's just very far fetched to assume costs would go down next gen.

The rise in costs wouldn't be too bad if no-one gets aggressive. Part of why the current generation had the casualties it did is because Microsoft and Sony pushed everyone over a big cost hurdle early.
 
I don't disagree there, however maybe what we will see is the creation of a middle tier in the industry. AAA "hollywood" titles by the big guns will retail for the highest price. Smaller devs who can't meet that budget will retail at a lower price, then the small indy games possibly even lower. I'm not sure this would be sustainable, I'm just trying to see what might come of it if what you say pans out.

Regarding what I'll gain: What I will get by a large jump is smoother framerates, more polygons (Bigger scenes realised) and better AI and physics. I realise that some games just don't need that sort of thing (NSBWii) but having more power for Zelda for a bigger and more realised Hyrule isn't a bad thing IMO. Don't get me wrong, I don't want companies to bankrupt themselves to get there of course and it's a shame to see smaller devs shutting down. In the end I want a healthy industry for everyone concerned, but I'm not going to hide the fact that I love smooth character models, great animation, beautiful effects and things like that.

I'm right with you on smoother framerates, and better AI...we may not go too much farther with physics and I'm not sure it relates too heavily on the gameplay front either That's my main hope for next gen, just a faster smoother all around experience from the OS/features/services to games on down. Full disclosure, I'm not a graphics guy when it comes to consoles. And I'm not convinced that better hardware = more realized and extravagant worlds, that just requires great design and art direction.

But here's my prediction on performance next-gen, I'll predict we don't see a lot of difference. We could have 1080p or full 720p at 60fps in every game now, but it's just not a production directive. The directive is to push aggressive visuals to the wall every game and hopefully keep a relative 30fps. And that's just a failure of priority among dev's where they weigh these visuals more important than the end user experience (fast loading, quick UI, silky framerate). A lot of that we only have ourselves and fellow gamers to blame for, after all we see more clamoring for "graphics" rather than performance and stability. We rarely see a gamer say"Hey I'm willing to sacrifice a great deal of detail for 1080p 60fps", what we see is "MAKE BETTER GRAPHICS" or the subtle slight of the passive voice "give me relative good performance and great graphics, a balance"...which for dev's relates to "push it as far as you can but remember to keep it playable" most of the time. I'm a sacrifice a huge amount of visual detail for pure performance on consoles guy, I think that's a better gameplay experience. I'd love to see a games industry where the mandate is keep it at full 720p 60fps but push the art, AI, physics and detail as far you you can within those limits, it'd be interesting if that was the competition among dev's. I'd wager we'd get better games and surely better experiences.
 
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