Mix Master
Member
Is Civil War Really going to do THAT well though? It's pretty much a sequel to Age of Ultron, and the movie is not really liked that much.
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Wkd BO 0304-0616 - Deadpool has fallen, Disney's animated animal kingdom reigns
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Bobby Roberts
Banned
It's a Spider-Man movie now, though.
Winter Soldier is very well liked though
BronsonLee
Member
I'm pretty bullish on Civil War, I think it'll do pretty well. Tony being there is a boost, and Spidey definitely is
People will have meltdowns if it performs worse than Ultron
BronsonLee
Member
Spaderbot always wins in the end
I'm surprised boxoffice.com is sticking with that lowball prediction for BvS.
There's going to be a lot of meltdowns then. $459M domestic is a pretty tall bar.
There's going to be a lot of meltdowns then. $459M domestic is a pretty tall bar.
Which would cause the bigger meltdowns? Civil War not beating Age of Ultron or Batman v Superman not beating The Dark Knight Rises?
Friday Estimates are pretty much where early numbers were pointing:
1) Zootopia - $12M
2) 10 Cloverfield Lane - $9.0M
3) London Has Fallen - $3.0M
4) Deadpool - $3.0M - $320M
5) The Perfect Match - $1.6M
6) The Young Messiah - $1.4M
7) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot - $1.3M - $11M total
8) The Brothers Grimsby - $1.2M
The Brothers Grimsby is a domestic flop. 2700+ theatres, $35M budget, and it won't even crack $5M OW. I don't know how international prospects look.
Both meltdowns would be ridiculous. Yes, both films are getting souped up casts, but these are sequels to a $260M domestic earner and a $290M domestic earner. AoU and TDKR were both in the mid-$400M range.
Just like Kojima saying that Peace Walker is a mainline Metal Gear Solid game didn't lead to audiences treating it with mainline sales, I think the "Captain America" moniker is going to dampen grosses a tad over what the exact same film with the name Avengers: Civil War would have made.
BvS is coming off a film that had OK reception, but nowhere near the legacy that the Nolan Dark Knight films had. Batman and the general Batman fighting Superman scenario is popular enough that I expect a big bump over MoS, but setting the bar for success at a more than 50% boost is silly. Especially domestic.
Maybe one of these films will pass Age of Ultron and TDRK if the reception is right, but that shouldn't be the minimum before we get a "What went wrong?" thread.
1) Zootopia - $12M
2) 10 Cloverfield Lane - $9.0M
3) London Has Fallen - $3.0M
4) Deadpool - $3.0M - $320M
5) The Perfect Match - $1.6M
6) The Young Messiah - $1.4M
7) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot - $1.3M - $11M total
8) The Brothers Grimsby - $1.2M
The Brothers Grimsby is a domestic flop. 2700+ theatres, $35M budget, and it won't even crack $5M OW. I don't know how international prospects look.
Both meltdowns would be ridiculous. Yes, both films are getting souped up casts, but these are sequels to a $260M domestic earner and a $290M domestic earner. AoU and TDKR were both in the mid-$400M range.
Just like Kojima saying that Peace Walker is a mainline Metal Gear Solid game didn't lead to audiences treating it with mainline sales, I think the "Captain America" moniker is going to dampen grosses a tad over what the exact same film with the name Avengers: Civil War would have made.
BvS is coming off a film that had OK reception, but nowhere near the legacy that the Nolan Dark Knight films had. Batman and the general Batman fighting Superman scenario is popular enough that I expect a big bump over MoS, but setting the bar for success at a more than 50% boost is silly. Especially domestic.
Maybe one of these films will pass Age of Ultron and TDRK if the reception is right, but that shouldn't be the minimum before we get a "What went wrong?" thread.
HomerSimpson-Man
Member
It was certainly well liked enough that it did $400 plus domestic and $1.4 billion worldwide with an A cinema score from audiences. That would be tough in general to match for Civil War, it's possible, maybe exceed, but Ultron still made a ton of money to reach that bar in general that's too easily dismissed.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
We have another two weeks until the box office threads become a blood bath. Enjoy this calm before the storm.
Then, once Batman v Superman hits about its third or fourth weekend, we will have about a week to prepare for the bigger blood bath when Civil War opens.
Then, once Batman v Superman hits about its third or fourth weekend, we will have about a week to prepare for the bigger blood bath when Civil War opens.
I really love reading your box office posts man. So informative.
Oh I agree completely. Still I don't think it's going to stop people from making a big deal out of it.
I think it could make it, especially given previous MCU performances:
Code:
|OW Multiplier |CW total with a $163M OW
Iron Man |3.23 |526,490,000
The Incredible Hulk |2.43 |396,090,000
Iron Man 2 |2.44 |397,720,000
Thor |2.75 |448,250,000
Captain America: TFA |2.72 |443,360,000
The Avengers |3.01 |490,630,000
Iron Man 3 |2.35 |383,050,000
Thor: The Dark World |2.41 |392,830,000
Captain America: TWS |2.73 |444,990,000
Guardians of the Galaxy |3.53 |575,390,000
Avengers: Age of Ultron |2.40 |391,200,000
Ant-Man |3.15 |513,450,000Bobby Roberts
Banned
Zootopia's success over there is interesting as hell for multiple reasons.
Do they usually update tracking numbers as release gets closer? No way BvS is 159. Umberto said recently that updated tracking numbers put it at 175-185 with good reviews and 200+ with great reviews.
Any idea why? Does chinas BO not play by the same rules?
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Still betting on BvS to be in the Iron Man 3 opening range. Like $170-180m
That wouldn't surprise me one bit. I have a hunch WoM will be solid and it actually hits 205 but that is admittedly best case scenario. Even if it gets slammed by critics and WoM is terrible 150+ is practically guaranteed. It's the 2nd weekend that suffers in that scenario.
broncobuster
Banned
I'll add, Civil War is a very popular comic event. Never know how that translates to movie success, but compare the emphasis of the logos.
Haven't seen it yet (releases 23rd of March here), but how is it so big in China? Especially surprised that it's beat KFP3's record.
It's not a franchise and word of mouth carries a lot of weight.
bodyboarder
Member
WoM?
Ya, they update their predictions. The initial prediction for Jurassic World was in the 80-90M OW range 2 months before launch. Their final prediction was around $130M (even if that ended up being hilariously low in hindsight).
BvS is still 2 weeks out, so predictions aren't going to be all that accurate yet.
Zootopia will probably end up with the best opening day multiplier of all time, so this is definitely not a typical run. Its first day last Friday was $3.5M. Yesterday (day 9), Zootopia made close to $26M.
That said, China's box office is constantly changing, and is much more dynamic than domestic runs. When Zootopia started doing well, it got a pretty sizable screen shift to it from other new releases. That sort of thing doesn't happen here, with theatres signing films on for 2+ weeks regardless of performance. As shitty as Brothers Grimsby is doing this week, it will still be in over 2000 venues next week. In China, it would have been dropped like a hot turd.
With Zootopia heading to over $200M, it has a pretty good shot at topping at least Batman v Superman there. Civil War will probably be in the $200M+ club as well (considering the fact that Cap 2 did $115M two years ago).
In other China news, Gods of Egypt will open to about $20M there. Yet another shitty sci fi/fantasy film that makes more in China than it does domestic.
Civil War's lifetime readership, including people who "borrowed" it off the internet is 2 million being generous (the floppies including reprints were moving 250-400k copies an issue). Even if every one of those people goes and sees the film 3 times, that's only $50-60M total.
I think the logo emphasis is there to downplay this as strictly a second Cap sequel, even if it technically is.
demosthenes
Member
Zootopia earned every cent, fantastic film, especially with what's going on now in America.
Hoping to see WTF this week.
Hoping to see WTF this week.
The Faceless Master
Member
London didn't flop, Jerry B got saved!!
LiquidMetal14
hide your water-based mammals
Saw The Brothers Grimsby today, I thoroughly was entertained. Didn't overstay its welcome either. I had a much better time with that one than The Revenant Leo's grunting half the film.
LFMartins86
Member
Word of mouth.
Word of mouth.
Thanks for the info. Yeah, it's really up in the air at this point.
I obviously don't have the sort of data used for advanced box office tracking, and am therefore not much better than anyone else when it comes to advanced predictions, but BvS feels like something that would opening in that $175M+ range. I will be slightly surprised if it is much lower than that, and not all that surprised if it ends up closer to the two Avengers openings.
Reviews/early WOM can shift things in either direction. If the film gets a 20% on MC/RT, than I am not going to expect $200M Sunday morning. Likewise great reviews would make that number a better possibility. Comic films don't need to make critics annual Top 10 list to do well, but great reviews help, and abysmal reviews hurt as we have seen with films like Guardians and Fantastic Four (on opposite extremes).
Dash_Riprock
Member
BvS making under a billion will cause half of DCGaf to get themselves banned I feel.
I don't see how any rational person thinks Civil War has a chance at beating AoE, but then, fanboys aren't exactly rational now are they? (I still remember people saying TFA wouldn't beat AoE at the box office, lmfao)
broncobuster
Banned
Not disagreeing. Just that In my experience, Marvel Civil War is somewhat known through osmosis when other Marvel films I'd get asked "What is an Ultron?"
bodyboarder
Member
I suppose that's true. Marvel promoted Civil War on the Colbert Report, and a few major newspapers/magazines picked up the story ahead of release.
HAIRY BAY-BEE!
As if I cared about money and not artistic value. I'm pretty confident both CW and BvS will have that in spades. Xmen though...
Okay cool. Thank you!!
Discotheque
Banned
lolwat? artistic value?! none of these movies will have much of that. xmen, as woeful as the marketing often is, can be counted on for good character stuff with singer behind it. he salvaged a shit franchise very well with dofp.
hopefully batman v superman and civil war contain some great back and forths too, especially now that they finally have an interesting conflict in both films. there's more to chew on here if they pull it off.
It's so fascinating seeing how films perform over there. Compared to the US it really feels like the wild west, ever few weeks some crazy story comes out, whether it's The Mermaid's jaw-dropping haul or Zootopia going bonkers like this.
Deserves every cent, it must have really resonated there. People go expecting cute talking animals and get so much more.
This is ... Something.
Discotheque
Banned
he should have just thrown ali g into brothers grimsby. it looks pretty stupid lol but i'm not gonna lie i'll end up watching it on netflix.
With how the film did this weekend, you'll be doing that by August.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Well, I get to see my viewing of BvS on the 21st in IMAX.
It's our "reward" for going to see the trailer in IMAX last year.
I'll be sure to report any and all fuckery in the spoiler thread.
It's our "reward" for going to see the trailer in IMAX last year.
I'll be sure to report any and all fuckery in the spoiler thread.
generic_username
I switched to an alt account to ditch my embarrassing tag so I could be an embarrassing Naughty Dog fanboy in peace. Ask me anything!
So jealous of everyone getting to see it early. Hope the movie turns out decent and builds a solid base for DCCU.
What are you basing that on?
PhoncipleBone
Banned
That it wasn't as successful in the US as the first Avengers was.
Weekend Studio Estimates:
1) Zootopia - $50.0M - $143M total
2) 10 Cloverfield Lane - $25.2M
3) Deadpool - $10.8M - $328M total
4) London Has Fallen - $10.7M - $39M total
x) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot - $4.6M - $15M total
x) The Young Messiah - $3.4M
x) The Brothers Grimsby - $3.2M
Zootopia dropped 33% this weekend. Mojo is down or I would give a comparison to some of the other large March Animation openers.
1) Zootopia - $50.0M - $143M total
2) 10 Cloverfield Lane - $25.2M
3) Deadpool - $10.8M - $328M total
4) London Has Fallen - $10.7M - $39M total
x) Whiskey Tango Foxtrot - $4.6M - $15M total
x) The Young Messiah - $3.4M
x) The Brothers Grimsby - $3.2M
Zootopia dropped 33% this weekend. Mojo is down or I would give a comparison to some of the other large March Animation openers.
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