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Wkd BO 0722-2416 - DOM Lights dim for Ice Age, the force weakens with Star Trek

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Quake1028

Member
Request: please continue to label the box office threads "Wkd BO", rather than just BO. Searching for "wkd" is the most reliable way to find these threads; doing so by thread title pulls up ten pages of box office threads. I've added it back to a few in recent weeks but missed a couple and can't find them because I can't remember the thread titles.

Obviously not a requirement, but it's been a nice way to find box office threads going back to 2007.

You could just look at the OP's started threads.

These are the two you missed:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1242282
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1247907
 
Combine MIB and 21 Jump Street. Rename it Ghostbusters.

Aren't they already doing that?

mib_23.jpg
 
Lord and Miller were actually asked by Sony (and I think they might have even accepted at one point?) to do a Ghostbusters movie but they got cold feet and backed out.

Which is a shame because as much as I enjoy Answer the Call, a Lord and Miller Ghostbusters would have probably been the best movie of all time.
 
Lord and Miller were actually asked by Sony (and I think they might have even accepted at one point?) to do a Ghostbusters movie but they got cold feet and backed out.

Which is a shame because as much as I enjoy Answer the Call, a Lord and Miller Ghostbusters would have probably been the best movie of all time.
Didn't they pass because the schedule would've conflicted with their work on the Han Solo movie?
 

kswiston

Member
Yeah, that was pretty stupid in hindsight

Yes. But to be fair, those dc animated films typically only sell a few hundred thousand dvd/blurays. They probably werent expecting to get 300k people putting down their cash for the limited theatrical engagement.
 
Yes. But to be fair, those dc animated films typically only sell a few hundred thousand dvd/blurays. They probably werent expecting to get 300k people putting down their cash for the limited theatrical engagement.

I've long since given up on understanding things when Sherlock: The Abominable Bride not only got a theater release in China, it made like 30 mil there
 
Killing Joke at #3.

Goddam.

Shit was nearly sold out on a Monday at 7:30 in the boonies of Birmingham, AL.
WB needs to try this with more of their DC DTVs.


I definitely enjoyed a not so great DTV more seeing it in that theater,
felt like a 5 year old back watching Mask of the Phantasm in theaters.
 
Didn't they pass because the schedule would've conflicted with their work on the Han Solo movie?

I think they passed because they were scared? Apparently a LOT of people passed because they were too afraid they would fuck it up and never hear the end of it. The Ghostbusters name carried/carries a ton of weight, even Paul Feig passed initially when Sony asked him. Lemme try to find it.

Edit: Here's one article about it where the give one lame answer "we're too tired" and another non-answer "I'm sure there's a good Ghostbusters movie out there" whatever that means. I could have sworn I read somewhere else that they just felt it was just too big a project to take on. I'm pretty sure Sony asked like every big name comedy director/writer out there and even some of the lesser ones (like the two guys from The Office that were working on a draft of GB3).

To be fair to them though, as lame as "we're too tired to do it" sounds they were releasing 2 movies and a TV show during that time. I think it was way before the Han Solo movie.
 

kswiston

Member
Seems like most websites are saying about $50M for Bourne going into this weekend. Bad Moms is expected to debut in the low $20M range, which gives it a shot at matching its production budget in its first weekend.

Variety is calling a 50% drop for Star Trek, while Deadline thinks 60%. Variety also can't do math, since they say that the $30M weekend means that the film will cross $100M at some point next weekend. $30M this weekend would mean that it crosses the $100M mark on Saturday. Star Trek will enter the weekend with $83-84M.
 
So Ghostbusters is at 128 million now...when is it going to reach it's budget???
Hard to tell, they don't get all the box office.
And it used to be true across the board that the opening weekend was when the biggest percentage of profits went to the studios. In the past, studios "strong-armed exhibitors into these front-loaded deals, wherein the overwhelming majority of the opening weekend take goes to the studio," says David Mumpower with Box Office Prophets. "As much as 90% of that revenue is theirs." The theaters only make money by selling "overpriced snacks" to audiences during that first week — but in the following weeks, the theater's cut goes up. Eventually, by the fourth week, the studio's cut has fallen to around 52 percent in most cases.
http://io9.gizmodo.com/5747305/how-much-money-does-a-movie-need-to-make-to-be-profitable
 

Timu

Member
Ah, makes sense.

It's not. Reported budgets never include marketing. Conventional wisdom is that a movie needs to double the budget to make a profit.
Yeah, I know about a movie needing to make double it's budget, but if it doesn't get a boost really soon this will definitely not get 300 or so.
 

kswiston

Member
It's not. Reported budgets never include marketing. Conventional wisdom is that a movie needs to double the budget to make a profit.

That depends a lot on the domestic vs overseas take these days. For films that are doing like 70% of their business outside of the US/Can, 2.5-3x is probably closer to the truth. Especially in those cases where a third or more of the overseas take is China.
 

kswiston

Member
Boxoffice.com dropped their opening weekend prediction for Bourne down to $51M, in line with everyone else. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops a bit lower than that in light of the weather than expected reviews.

They are putting Bad Moms at $27M, which is higher than the early week tracking was suggesting, but this summer has been pretty light on films aimed at the adult (real adult, not college kids) female market. I can that film being a minor breakout.

Nerve made $1M from Tuesday preview, which seems OK for that sort of film.


We should start getting some updated Suicide Squad tracking soon. The review embargo lifts on Tuesday. If the film is good, I think that WB could have lifted it this Friday to feed the hype, but maybe that cuts into when the critics screenings are happening.
 

Timu

Member
We should start getting some updated Suicide Squad tracking soon. The review embargo lifts on Tuesday. If the film is good, I think that WB could have lifted it this Friday to feed the hype, but maybe that cuts into when the critics screenings are happening.
Aw, thanks for telling this, can't wait for them reviews!!!
 
Variety posted a very positive review of Petes Dragon. Wonder how the rest of the reviews will be.

IGN's seems to be very positive as well.

Interesting that the embargo seems to be lifted so early, they must be really confident in it. Wonder how audiences will react, I don't think a single person I know is even aware it exists.
 
lol Ice Age

Saw Star Trek over the weekend and while it wasn't bad (I liked it more than Into Darkness), it was just more of the same... which is cool if you're into it. Personally, I'm over it.
 

kswiston

Member
Dory passed Star Wars on Monday to claim the #8 spot on the all-time domestic list. It will pass The Phantom Menace at some point in the next two weeks before settling into its peak position at #7.

The Dark Knight is out of reach.
 

Busty

Banned
HOLY CRAP, I just checked out Ghostbusters' international numbers. Yowser. Is this film going to make under $100m once it has finished its run in markets outside the US?

It still has to open in Germany, Italy, Japan and some other territories but if it performs similarly to Feig's other comedies, such as The Heat, it could do well under $100m.

If this finishes with $130m in the US, which is looking highly likely, this film could finish with a worldwide total of under $250m which would be nothing short of a total and utter disaster for Sony.
 

BumRush

Member
Dory passed Star Wars on Monday to claim the #8 spot on the all-time domestic list. It will pass The Phantom Menace at some point in the next two weeks before settling into its peak position at #7.

The Dark Knight is out of reach.

You think it has a chance at $500 or did Pets sap its staying power?
 

Timu

Member
HOLY CRAP, I just checked out Ghostbusters' international numbers. Yowser. Is this film going to make under $100m once it has finished its run in markets outside the US?

It still has to open in Germany, Italy, Japan and some other territories but if it performs similarly to Feig's other comedies, such as The Heat, it could do well under $100m.

If this finishes with $130m in the US, which is looking highly likely, this film could finish with a worldwide total of under $250m which would be nothing short of a total and utter disaster for Sony.
Yep, it needs more than that, right now it needs a big push to do well.
 

kswiston

Member
You think it has a chance at $500 or did Pets sap its staying power?

It's still falling behind Toy Story 3 in yhe daily grosses which made another $33M beyond this point.

I dont know that Disney would just leave their film at $490M domestic, but it will be close.
 

Goodstyle

Member
If GB made 250-300 million, it wouldn't be a "total and utter disaster". It wouldn't be great, but it shouldn't be described in the same way guys here have described "Gods of Egypt". I think people who really want it to fail are over-exaggerating it big time. This wasn't the language used to describe movies with similar runs and y'all know it.
 
Ghostbusters looks like it gonna struggle just to make $200 million, am I missing something? Why is the international gross THAT low? I know comedies are a hard sell for non-English speakers but damn.
 

Abounder

Banned
If GB made 250-300 million, it wouldn't be a "total and utter disaster". It wouldn't be great, but it shouldn't be described in the same way guys here have described "Gods of Egypt". I think people who really want it to fail are over-exaggerating it big time. This wasn't the language used to describe movies with similar runs and y'all know it.

That would be less than what the infamous Terminator: Genisys made (minus China), which was also ridiculed and considered a flop until it made a comeback overseas. But yea the online user 'reviews'/etc do take it up another notch for Sony's GB
 
Ghostbusters looks like it gonna struggle just to make $200 million, am I missing something? Why is the international gross THAT low? I know comedies are a hard sell for non-English speakers but damn.

(1) the distribution of marketing activities;
(2) the relative goodwill of Ghostbusters;
(3) Its opening in many European countries this weekend.
 

Timu

Member
I wonder if those other countries would help Ghostbusters because the movie is already opened in most countries as well.
 
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