I can definitely see them rounding to $48.5M if they are close. At least for the Friday estimate. Get all those "September opening record broken in one day" stories tomorrow. By Monday, when we get actuals, no one will care if it was a slight miss.
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Wkd BO 0901-0317 - Labor Day WEAKend box office has nothing as Bodyguard 3peats
- Thread starter xaosslug
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I can definitely see them rounding to $48.5M if they are close. At least for the Friday estimate. Get all those "September opening record broken in one day" stories tomorrow. By Monday, when we get actuals, no one will care if it was a slight miss.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I think they're gonna beat that clean, honestly.
It's pretty crazy to think that a few weeks ago, back when you were arguing against a bunch of people underselling IT in one of these threads, you felt the need to backpedal on IT doubling the September record when you found out that it was close to $50M (instead of whatever the Equalizer had). Now double the September record is probably going to be selling the film short.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
it's like Swiss found out I have a papercut on my finger and is helping by rubbing lemon juice and tapatio into it with 40-grit sandpaper
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
But the real question is... will you still think trailer views mean nothing? 
B-G-E had a point that both amateur and professional box office analysts/enthusiasts get blinded by past data, even in the face of something that doesn't conform to said data.
September is a month that has never even had a $50M opening. So even most of the people who thought that IT would be huge were stuck in a "huge for September" mentality.
But the real question is... will you still think trailer views mean nothing?
I think that we might go through this again in a couple of months when Ragnarok opens. Assuming that Ragnarok is about as good as we think it is going to be.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Ragnarok gonna get the Ruffalo Bump. Just you watch.
But the real question is... will you still think trailer views mean nothing?
That was the first indicator to me that it was gonna be fucking huge. I've been expecting big tings since then... but even with that in mind, this is beyond expectations.
Another thing: usually when the political climate is as... shitty as it is, happy go lucky fantasy films thrive at the box office. Another reason why an r rated horror movie doing so well in 2017 is tripping me the fuck out.
Wish fulfillment is popular with theatre audiences, and a lot of people wish that they could fight an evil clown right now.
More_Badass
Member
IT is a happy go lucky fantasy film, kind of. A very clear-cut good fighting evil story with a bunch of likable, relatable, funny kids on one side and a really memorable villain on the other, a coming of age story where friends form a tight bond together and go on an adventure
PhoncipleBone
Banned
A group of friends that have been bullied and have no one else but each other to turn to team up to take on an unspeakable evil that is plaguing their home and terrifying them. It works really well with the political climate.
Now watch someone write an article about how Pennywise is a stand in for Trump and the kids represent the future of progressivism.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
But the real question is... will you still think trailer views mean nothing?
Yeah
At least trailer views that aren't YouTube direct plays
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Initial trailer views can give a small glimpse, but not a giant indicator. However, I think looking at legs on a trailer or how well subsequent trailers for it perform does paint a cleaner picture.
It isn't a be all end all, nor is looking at social media engagement. But it does provide something.
It isn't a be all end all, nor is looking at social media engagement. But it does provide something.
Makes sense. I thought people would be freaked out a bit more by the "evil creepy clown" concept, but I guess I should give them a bit more credit
Also, what are the films that have had insane trailer views so far? TFA, beauty and the beast and it? Am I forgetting anything?
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Thor 3: The Ragnarock
The only trailer views I put stock in are those on Youtube. Facebook counts a view as "played for 3 seconds".
And even Youtube views are just good as a heads up that something has breakout potential. When people already know what they are getting, they are less likely to watch (and rewatch) trailers. See Youtube views for GotG2 vs something like Suicide Squad for instance.
And even Youtube views are just good as a heads up that something has breakout potential. When people already know what they are getting, they are less likely to watch (and rewatch) trailers. See Youtube views for GotG2 vs something like Suicide Squad for instance.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Deadpool also had crazy high trailer views, I think 35 million for the red band by time it released.
Also, Suicide Squad was off the charts, routinely higher than BvS.
Also, Suicide Squad was off the charts, routinely higher than BvS.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Quoting Kswis from the IT record breaking thread:
Funny bit of trivia is that IT was originally released in hardcover only 11 days before Crocodile Dundee hit theaters in September 1986.
Funny bit of trivia is that IT was originally released in hardcover only 11 days before Crocodile Dundee hit theaters in September 1986.
Ragnarok has pretty crazy numbers. The Teaser has over 65M views on Youtube, between the official stream and the two largest unofficial streams. A bit higher than IT's teaser between those three channels (trading out Marvel for WB).
The trailer from a month ago has 50M views between the official release, and the biggest unofficial release.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
I am NOT dialing back my outlandish expectations for Ragnarok.
$150m ow? $125m?
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Hunger Games: Catching Fire has the November OW record at 158mil.
Can Ragnarok hit $160? That seems tough.
...but goddamn does that movie look like the goods though!
My instinct is to say it winds up around $135-140, but who knows. Now I might be overshooting to compensate for wilting in the face of pressure on IT.
Can Ragnarok hit $160? That seems tough.
...but goddamn does that movie look like the goods though!
My instinct is to say it winds up around $135-140, but who knows. Now I might be overshooting to compensate for wilting in the face of pressure on IT.
I'm thinking between Homecoming and GOTG2's opening weekends. Thor 2 and Doc Strange were in the mid 80s, and Ragnarok seems to have way more buzz.
AdventureRacing
Member
How does the shorter run time impact things? I feel like that allows for more showings potentially but I'm not sure how that usually plays out.
But the real question is... will you still think trailer views mean nothing?
If it means something then Thor 3 is doing 200M OW.
Thor > Homecoming
All hail Thor.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
It hurts grosses, because if a film is under 2 hours, many people will not pay to go see it.
Must be why IT is doing so well, since it is just over 2 hours.
Makes sense.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Oh, I forgot. Since IT is rated R, more people were inclined to go watch it. So you have an R rating AND a runtime greater than 120 minutes. So obviously it must be good and worth paying to see.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
$130M seems right for Thor 3. It was noted on BOT that the firsy day of ticket sales were about 3/4 of Guardians 2, with the caveat that (I think) they've gone on sale a month. sooner than for Guardians.
Probably too soon to consider something like this, but if IT can get good legs and approach $300M, then Thor would very likely sell fewer admissions since IT is not in 3D.
Probably too soon to consider something like this, but if IT can get good legs and approach $300M, then Thor would very likely sell fewer admissions since IT is not in 3D.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
The Ruffalo Bump!
hodayathink
Member
Generally speaking, yes, the more showings the better. How much better I don't know, though.
Never dial back. Push forward and only make more outlandish predictions.
Did we reach a consensus on what counts as a horror film in any of these threads? I agree with Bobby that The Sixth Sense is not a horror film. I also saw someone throw out Jaws. At which point, you might as well just list Jurassic Park.
Is topping the Exorcist enough to call IT the highest grossing horror film?
Is topping the Exorcist enough to call IT the highest grossing horror film?
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Topping the Exorcist seems like a good bar to clear.
So, a week from Saturday is when that happens?
So, a week from Saturday is when that happens?
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
There's an argument that Jaws is more or less constructed like a horror film (and even an argument for Jurassic Park in part), but yeah, I'd say The Exorcist is the height of what I'd consider to be a true, honest-to-goodness horror film.
Some of those Twilight films look pretty horrifying.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I would probably argue for Jaws as a horror film since it was certainly marketed as such. Just look at the trailer.
Regardless, IT seems very likely to top Jaws as well.
Regardless, IT seems very likely to top Jaws as well.
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Most brutal death of a child you'll see in a movie this weekend.
I just burst out laughing
More_Badass
Member
I'm behind this argument. Jaws and JP certainly have scenes and elements with horror movie DNA, but I wouldn't call them horror movies due to their overall style and structure.
The Witch, The Exorcist, Texas Chainsaw Massacre, and Halloween are what comes to mind when I think of the epitome of horror
Green Room and The Thing fall under horror-thriller IMO
Most brutal death of a child you'll see in a movie this weekend.
lmao...saved.
Future Foundation
Member
Twilight was fucking ridiculous.
broncobuster
Banned
All I know of Twilight is how the actors involved seem to openly hate Twilight. It's weirdly admirable.
Best scene in the franchise and they wasted it like that. Should've make that the actual ending.
StopMakingSense
Member
You mean the very end of the series? YEP. That's how the whole thing ends.