Wkd BO 09•04-06•15 - Jurassic World 4th movie (ever) to reach 1B @ International BO

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I think my church took a group to see War room. I've only watched like a scene so I have no idea if it's actually good or not, but it seems to be doing well.
 
I'm really curious to see if Star Wars will be able to beat Jurassic World. 1,6 billion is a huge threshold, even for Star Wars.

At this point, it largely rests on how the international market takes to the film. Even with best case domestic numbers (edging out Avatar's $750M), The Force Awakens still needs $925M+ overseas.
 
Even better idea: Let's jump on the superhero bandwagon and make a $120M film about this fucker

latest
Jesus himself could be rebooted as a super hero, easily.
 
I don't understand Jurassic World's success. It's even more baffling than Furious 7's.

It shouldn't really that baffling. It's a sure thing family film that everyone in a family could settle on seeing and also nostalgia is a son of bitch.

The trailer also sold those original Jurassic park feels that people wanted to relive. Some of whom have had kids since the original was out. And wanted them to experience something they thought would be the same.
 
Terminator likely actually made more money in China than reported:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/china-film-execs-claim-terminator-820874

Since Regiments’ release, moviegoers have been circulating photos of suspicious tickets they received from Chinese cinemas. The photos show printed tickets for Regiments, with screening details for other movies scribbled over them. Chinese bloggers cite the photos as evidence that cinemas are channeling box office revenue away from Terminator and Huayi and Bona’s movies to prop up the results for Regiments. For example, when moviegoers ask for tickets to Terminator, cinema staff log the sale for Regiments while ushers re-write the tickets by hand for the Terminator screening (some moviegoers have even posted videos of the process).

Chinese industry sources say the cinemas are simply responding to a set of incentives imposed on them by China Film Distribution, the distribution wing of the all-powerful state studio, China Film Group.

A widely circulated essay, titled "Entertainment Capitalism” and published anonymously in China last week, alleges that all major cinemas chains were ordered by CFD to hit specific box office targets for Regiments. The cinema chains that reached their quotas would be rewarded with a special revenue sharing arrangement throughout Regiments’ first week on release, Aug. 28 to Sept. 3. For all Regiments tickets sold, CFD would allow cinemas to keep 100 percent of the revenue and would further reimburse them for the usual 8.3 percent in taxes Chinese cinemas pay on ticket sales. Typically, for a Chinese domestic film, the producer and distributor take as much as 43 percent of box office (Hollywood movies take a maximum of 25 percent of box office in China). Cinemas, thus, were given a powerful financial incentive to sell as many Regiments tickets as possible – not to mention the official umbrage they might face for failing to hit their targets.

...

As Terminator was both foreign and the biggest performing title at the time, it naturally became the top target for graft. The cinema chain manager said he believes $11 million (70 million yuan) is a "conservative estimate" for how much the Paramount film lost from ticket sales channeled to the state propaganda picture during CFD's period of preferential treatment.

The box office data over the alleged “CFD special treatment period” indeed suggests something was amiss. On Sept 3, the final day of CFD’s full revenue offer to cinemas, Regiments came in first at the box office with $7.99 million, over Terminator’s second-place $5.71 million. The next day, Regiments plummeted to sixth place, pulling in just $670,000, while Terminator returned to the top with $5.40 million.
 
I saw that leaked document about Regiments and I pretty much figured the theaters would do things to fluff their numbers up.

Apparently, Monster Hunt had some fudged reporting as well. Their distributor, Edko, owns a theater chain and had been double scheduling viewing times, 15 minutes apart, in the same hall for some midnight screenings.
 
At this point, it largely rests on how the international market takes to the film. Even with best case domestic numbers (edging out Avatar's $750M), The Force Awakens still needs $925M+ overseas.

I have a feeling Star Wars will do great numbers in Asia.
 
I'm frankly surprised nobody has made a moderately budgeted Samson action movie yet.

Screw Samson, it's Gilgamesh time!
Samson could be legit good though. Dibs for Jason Mamoa.

Watch Hollywood make these in a few years from now anyway. They won't be evangelical movies though, since those are clearly not Christians. Like that Ibrahim Jewish prick, fuck that guy. Someone should convert that infidel.
 
It shouldn't really that baffling. It's a sure thing family film that everyone in a family could settle on seeing and also nostalgia is a son of bitch.

The trailer also sold those original Jurassic park feels that people wanted to relive. Some of whom have had kids since the original was out. And wanted them to experience something they thought would be the same.

And it is really the perfect timing for it. The original was just about 20 years old. The kids would be just about the same age as the parents were back then, give or take 2-3 years.
 
Would anyone here be interested in a Winter version of my Box Office prediction game I did this past summer? It'd be due around the beginning of October for The Martian to be included, but I think a lot of the upcoming films would be fun to predict.

Heck, Star Wars alone would be fun to predict.

But yeah, I'll use this thread to measure interest because if no one wants to do it, why bother posting a thread for such predicts?
 
Mission Impossible has made $40M in China after 3 days. A great start, but I don't think it will be hitting the crazy numbers that some were expecting.

Would anyone here be interested in a Winter version of my Box Office prediction game I did this past summer? It'd be due around the beginning of October for The Martian to be included, but I think a lot of the upcoming films would be fun to predict.

Heck, Star Wars alone would be fun to predict.

But yeah, I'll use this thread to measure interest because if no one wants to do it, why bother posting a thread for such predicts?

If you do it, you should make the game simpler. Pick 5-10 specific films and have us predict those. I think you would get more participation than you would having people making top 5 or top 10 lists out of dozens of possible films. Not enough people follow box office closely enough to do that, even in this thread.

Personally, I'd just have people predict Mockingjay pt 2, Spectre, The Good Dinosaur, The Force Awakens, and maybe 1-2 other films that you think could be big. Everything else is an outside shot at $200M+ domestic.
 
Both the Visit and The Perfect Man are performing stronger than expected based on early Friday business. Deadline and Boxoffice.com are expecting low 20s for The visit and $25M+ for Perfect Man.

Rogue Nation is currently sitting at $52M in China after 4 days. Given the upcoming releases, it's probably heading towards $125M or so which is a fairly big disappointment given the gross of Ghost Protocol 3.5 years ago in China.

Preorder numbers point to minions opening huge in China.
 
I have a feeling Star Wars will do great numbers in Asia.

Star Wars is comparably weaker internationally than other blockbusters. Episode III had the highest international percent at 55%, but thats only because domestically it was way down from Episode I. Jurassic World is at 61% international. Avatar was 72.7% internationally. Even if The Force Awakens makes it to an insane $1 billion domestic (It won't come close) and we say it improves its international take to 60% it still doesn't touch Avatar. Those predictions aren't based in any sort of reality.
 
Boxoffice threads die after summer is over while NPD threads will only get interesting the closer we get to the end of the year. Funny how differently movie and gaming markets work lol.

Except this year we are likely to get our most active threads of the year in December.
 
This November will be pretty active for films as well. We have at least 3 films that will break $200M domestic. It will be interesting to see how Mockingjay Pt 2 and Spectre perform compared to their predecessors. I am also curious to see how the Good Dinosaur performs. Pixar + Dinosaurs could be big.
 
I'm almost looking more forward to the box office numbers as I am the film itself. I truly believe TFA has a shot at Avatar.

Anything's possible I guess. Eh, no, it has no chance.

As big as Star Wars is, there are many people that do not like it. It does not have the broad appeal of Avatar.

Edit - A lot of people forget just how freakish Avatar was. Reread some of those early Avatar Box Office threads.

Freakish movies take a long time to top. Take Titanic for example. 20 years old, and still #2. Only to be topped by another freakish movie.

No other movie has come close to Titanic or Avatar. Titanic is still $500 million ahead of the #3 film. And Avatar is $600 million ahead of Titanic. There is a $1.1 BILLION dollar span between World and Avatar.

The 2 billion dollar club is a lonely place.
 
Anything's possible I guess. Eh, no, it has no chance.

As big as Star Wars is, there are many people that do not like it. It does not have the broad appeal of Avatar.

Edit - A lot of people forget just how freakish Avatar was. Reread some of those early Avatar Box Office threads.

Freakish movies take a long time to top. Take Titanic for example. 20 years old, and still #2. Only to be topped by another freakish movie.

No other movie has come close to Titanic or Avatar. Titanic is still $500 million ahead of the #3 film. And Avatar is $600 million ahead of Titanic.

The 2 billion dollar club is a lonely place.

Avatar also greatly benefited by more favourable currency exchanges. If it was released with today's rates, its international gross would be nowhere near $2B.
 
It's weird to think how expectations are so warped, Ep VII grossing $500M domestic and $1.5B worldwide would be considered disappointing.
 
It's weird to think how expectations are so warped, Ep VII grossing $500M domestic and $1.5B worldwide would be considered disappointing.

I know that to some this will be disappointing, but in the grand scheme of things, that much in receipts...plus blu-ray and VOD...plus merchandise means Disney is going to make A LOT of money
 
I know that to some this will be disappointing, but in the grand scheme of things, that much in receipts...plus blu-ray and VOD...plus merchandise means Disney is going to make A LOT of money
I agree but that's the world we live in. If Avengers had made $1.3B instead of $1.5B, AoU with $1.4B wouldn't have been labeled a disappointment. There was a narrative at work there that AoU had to break the previous record so when it didn't, the studio was let down. The same seems to be happening with Star Wars.
 
Friday Studio Estimates:

1) The Perfect Guy - $10.0M
2) The Visit - $9.2M
3) War Room - $2.2M - $34M total
4) A Walk in the Woods - $1.5M - $17M total
5) Straight Outta Compton - $1.2M - $153M total
6) Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $1.1M - $185M total
 
Any chance Ant-Man brings in another $7M to beat Thor? Or is it almost done

I think it will, but it will be close. Captain America 1 made another $4M after the Thursday following Labour day weekend, and Ant-Man is still outgrossing it day to day. Ant-Man needs roughly $6.5M. This weekend will give us a better idea I think.
 
Sad to see Rogue nation not doing as good as hoped in China. Maybe if it has 3d.
Oh well...the total worldwide should still be pretty good, though I doubt it will cross Ghost Protocol now.
 
If you do it, you should make the game simpler. Pick 5-10 specific films and have us predict those. I think you would get more participation than you would having people making top 5 or top 10 lists out of dozens of possible films. Not enough people follow box office closely enough to do that, even in this thread.

Personally, I'd just have people predict Mockingjay pt 2, Spectre, The Good Dinosaur, The Force Awakens, and maybe 1-2 other films that you think could be big. Everything else is an outside shot at $200M+ domestic.

Sounds like a good idea. I've come up with ten films I think the board would all be collectively interested in predicting (although a couple I don't personally think will do too hot, but they're the Speed Racers/Mad Maxes of this winter). I'll get to posting that soon.

Friday Studio Estimates:

1) The Perfect Guy - $10.0M
2) The Visit - $9.2M
3) War Room - $2.2M - $34M total
4) A Walk in the Woods - $1.5M - $17M total
5) Straight Outta Compton - $1.2M - $153M total
6) Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - $1.1M - $185M total

Awesome for the Visit; hope to see it next week.
 
Anything's possible I guess. Eh, no, it has no chance.

As big as Star Wars is, there are many people that do not like it. It does not have the broad appeal of Avatar.

Edit - A lot of people forget just how freakish Avatar was. Reread some of those early Avatar Box Office threads.

Freakish movies take a long time to top. Take Titanic for example. 20 years old, and still #2. Only to be topped by another freakish movie.

No other movie has come close to Titanic or Avatar. Titanic is still $500 million ahead of the #3 film. And Avatar is $600 million ahead of Titanic. There is a $1.1 BILLION dollar span between World and Avatar.

The 2 billion dollar club is a lonely place.

Titanic only made about $1.8bn in its initial run. Added about $60m DOM and $250-300m WW with the 3D Release in 2012. Therefore, World outgrossed Titanic DOM and only did about $200m less than Titanic WW - not too shabby.
 
Titanic only made about $1.8bn in its initial run. Added about $60m DOM and $250-300m WW with the 3D Release in 2012. Therefore, World outgrossed Titanic DOM and only did about $200m less than Titanic WW - not too shabby.

17 years later. Domestic attendance for Jurassic World was about half of that of Titanic's original run.
 
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