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Wkd BO 1209-1116 - Moana a Party pupuper, keeps top spot warm for Disney fam
- Thread starter xaosslug
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65 on metacritic is great?
Lifejumper
Member
66 actually
Rogue One is a better movie than TFA
I can imagine it was a smaller budget movie?
so the RoI might be higher? or that just goes out of whack when you go into the many digits
I'm hoping it does very well, 5 screens were showing it tonight for 00:01 where I am, and they weren't full but not empty. (5 screens out of 8 in the cinema)
The cinema chains here (Ireland) are expecting lots of business (relatively).
I can imagine it was a smaller budget movie?
so the RoI might be higher? or that just goes out of whack when you go into the many digits
I'm hoping it does very well, 5 screens were showing it tonight for 00:01 where I am, and they weren't full but not empty. (5 screens out of 8 in the cinema)
The cinema chains here (Ireland) are expecting lots of business (relatively).
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Something to keep in mind, although I'm not sure it's gonna have THAT big an impact, but last year, the weather was unseasonably nice. Not a lot of snow. People could pretty easily get to the theater.
This year, weather's a little more inclement in some larger areas.
This year, weather's a little more inclement in some larger areas.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Rogue One also has Donnie Yen in its favor. That will help in China.
Yup. It was a perfect storm of conditions for TFA last year. This year, the weather is swinging from the 60s to the teens all over this weekend and next week here in KY. It is so odd. There is even call for snow.
Seems high but could def happen. Going with $168m ow myself.
Welcome back to the BO threads.
Last year was the perfect convergence of factors for The Force Awakens (hype, weather, reviews, competition, etc). I cant decide whether to put my weekend guess for Rogue One at $150M or $175M. I think it will easily end up over every opening this year other than perhaps Civil War and BvS. Legs will obviously be much better than both.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Yeah, going with $165-175m opening weekend myself. But, I have been hellishly wrong this year, so what the hell do I know?
This year has been all over the place.
Anyone want to predict Thursday previews for Rogue One?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I'll say $36M. And then $45M for Friday proper and the weekend total will be ~$170M.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it failed to hit $500M from there. Based on all the "darkest Star War film yet" impressions, I don't see any chance it'll come close to TFA's legs.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it failed to hit $500M from there. Based on all the "darkest Star War film yet" impressions, I don't see any chance it'll come close to TFA's legs.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
If the impressions in the OT are any indication, the finale bit of the film is bonkers and the best part. So maybe it will play like Avengers or Jurassic World. Seriously flawed first two acts, then a fantastic final act that is what keeps people coming back.
Gotta agree with this. In illinois. Its cold as hell, and it's supposed to snow Friday and Saturday. I mean it won't stop me from going to see the movie, but if could have some sort of impact.
Yup, a lot of places got snow early compared to previous years and it's cold as HELL on top of that.
NealMcCauley
Member
Yeah it's freezing in the north east and this weekend doesn't look like it's going to be good at least in Pennsylvania.
Thankfully my theater is in a mall so I'm not waiting outside at all. However don't know if I'll even be willing to deal with the roads this weekend if I don't have to. For me it's not just the major roads like Interstate 80 but the normal roads that will be the most dangerous with snow, rain, slush, etc. Traveling 20+ miles, just one way, in that to see a movie isn't worth it. I'll wait.
Thankfully my theater is in a mall so I'm not waiting outside at all. However don't know if I'll even be willing to deal with the roads this weekend if I don't have to. For me it's not just the major roads like Interstate 80 but the normal roads that will be the most dangerous with snow, rain, slush, etc. Traveling 20+ miles, just one way, in that to see a movie isn't worth it. I'll wait.
Yeah, there are a lot of mountains around Pittsburgh and the medium cities in the middle of the state, so I definitely agree about PA attendance taking a hit.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
If Jumanji was a person it could legally drink.
This just reminds me that I started high school 20 year ago. I feel old
Started? I was in my senior year then.
BronsonLee
Member
20 years ago, I was skating on a roller rink and pushing people over in a wave pool
Smokey_Run
Member
You and me are in the same boat. A friend and I want to see it, but we'll basically find out Saturday evening if it's worth the trip due to the weather. If the forecast holds, we're not driving in a wintry mix/freezing rain mess over a mountain, 30 miles one way. Not worth it.
Sad behavior for a 60 year old
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-story-preview-box-office-social-media-1201871704/
First time I can recall Deadline posting early preview projections, though the range (mid 20s to 40) is not especially enlightening.
First time I can recall Deadline posting early preview projections, though the range (mid 20s to 40) is not especially enlightening.
Given that it had the second biggest presales of all time via Fandango, anything under BvS ($27.7M) would sort of be disappointing.
Pretty much every overseas territory that opened on Wednesday/Thursday for Rogue One is way down compared to TFA. I wonder if that caused Disney to skip the Wednesday report that we typically get opening weekend.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
The article mentions two theater chains that are at 50% of TFA's sales for opening night and one expects to get to 65%. So that would seem to be how Deadline got their range, and suggets mid 20s is the "no one buys anymore tickets tonight" low end.
Re: overseas. The numbers gave me a pause earlier, but given the domestic share TFA had, it may be a case of Star Wars simply being a much more US centric franchise than we're used to.
Re: overseas. The numbers gave me a pause earlier, but given the domestic share TFA had, it may be a case of Star Wars simply being a much more US centric franchise than we're used to.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Solid. We'll see how this one fares when all is said and done. Rogue One has to deal with Sing & Passengers the coming week. It's going to be interesting.
Passengers might be one of those films that looked big, but was hamstrung by bad reviews.
Sing will probably be big.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Isn't $45 million a pretty high budget for a comedy not starring any big stars?
Especially one called "Office Christmas Party"?
Especially one called "Office Christmas Party"?
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I think Passengers will struggle but reach $100M nonetheless due to the holiday season and celebrity draw.
Sing is going to be huge based on Illumination Entertainment's track record. Great counter-programming from Universal.
I think Arrival will be sticking a tad longer too and may in the end reach $100M and give it a multiple of 4. Crazy good.
I'm excited to see how Fences plays out too.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Looking like $29m Thursday for Rogue One.
$126M this weekend if the preview ratio is the same as TFA, but that probably wont be the case. TFA was operating under peak first weekend conditions (slightly higher than Avengers and Jurassic World outside of Thursday). Rogue one isnt going to suffer from the same extreme levels of sellouts during the evening shows.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
So you are thinking under $125m then? Or higher since Thursday won't be as front loaded?
Higher.
The Twilight films had $30M midnights, and opened close to $140M. Hopefully Rogue One can at least manage $140M.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Ah, gotcha. The way your post was worded I was trying to figure out if it was saying just as front loaded or less so.
But I think with this one people aren't as in a rush for opening night as with TFA. They want it first weekend, but don't need to be there at the first showing.
If Jumanji was a person it could legally drink.
This just reminds me that I started high school 20 year ago. I feel old
Jeebsus, you gents are old... I was in elementary school
Yesterday was also unseasonably cold for a lot of the US and Canada.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I was shaking and shivering so hard after the movie let out last night. Trying to get to the car was so damn cold. It was about 17F or so last night here. Meanwhile, it is supposed to be 65F tomorrow.
It's WB's weather machine trying to prevent people from going to see Rogue One.
I had to go into NYC for a client meeting and the weather was literally all anyone could talk about. Less than 20 degrees with 50+ mile per hour gusts...
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