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[kswiston]

I don't think that Episode 10 will be as soon as 2022 given that we are getting Ep 9 in 2019, but I can't see them waiting much longer than 5 years to start on "main" films. Especially if the side stuff isn't nearly as lucrative.

Speaking of which, Rth (via the Box Office Theory boards) is saying $69-73M for Rogue One on Friday.

If we take the lower end of that, you'd get a weekend of $148M following the Hobbit (An Unexpected Journey), and $152M following The Force Awakens.

I don't think that Rogue One will have nearly as strong a Sunday as TFA, so the Hobbit might be a better comparison, as long as Saturday can increase.

Either way, $150M+ is still in play until we get a sense of Saturday.

 

[Branduil]

TFA probably inflated some people's expectations for a December opening to unrealistic levels. $150 million would still be insane and over 1.5 times as much as the biggest non-TFA opening.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Bolded the relevant. Distributions rights aren't content rights. Distribution rights means if they wanna put the film out on home video again, they have to get permission from/cut in Disney, and if Disney wants to release it on blu-ray or digital again, they gotta cut a deal with Fox.

But Disney can do whatever they want with the content. It's theirs. They can special edition again, they can remaster, they can revert back to the original, whatever they wanna do. It's only when they want to distribute it that Fox has to get their cut. Fox can't tell them what they can or can't do with their movie. They just get to release it.

Distribution rights aren't the same as content rights. Lucasfilm belongs to Disney. The film belongs to Lucasfilm.

If anything, Lucasfilm deciding to reboot the entire series allows them to completely sidestep Fox. You don't have to make a deal to sell Star Wars through them anymore when you've got your own Star Wars now.

Wouldn't it be possible for Fox to have rights of first refusal for anything regarding ANH, including remakes? You're probably right that they wouldn't be able to ask for 50% of the gross or whatever, but they could theoretically still have the rights to distribute it and get those lucrative distribution royalties.

Disney won't have to deal with Fox for much longer regarding anything SW besides ANH. After 2020, the only claim Fox will have for SW is ANH distribution rights. I am betting they will hold on to that for dear life though.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Wouldn't it be possible for Fox to have rights of first refusal for anything regarding ANH, including remakes?

No.

 

[kswiston]

TFA probably inflated some people's expectations for a December opening to unrealistic levels. $150 million would still be insane and over 1.5 times as much as the biggest non-TFA opening.

Fandango trying to get free advertisement by announcing presale records being broken with every big film this year doesn't help either. I can see how "second highest presales of all time" could lead to more optimism. $150M is a great opening, but it's third for the year, and not a ton higher than stuff like Deadpool or Suicide Squad when you adjust for the differences in Thursday gross.


So for sake of argument, let's say this weekend is $145M. The same opening weekend multiplier as The Force Awakens would give Rogue One a domestic total $547M off of a $145M opening.

Eragon (2006) had the worst legs for any film opening on the third weekend in December since the start of the new millennium (The Force Awakens actually has the second worse legs in that slot). If Rogue One has Eragon's OW multiplier, it will make $468M off of a $145M opening weekend.

 

[Subitai]

How good is $70 mil for today?

I drastically underestimated the power of abs. Which was dumb of me.

Because those were some fucking pristine abs.

The pecs! They were bigger than Margot's head.

 

[3N16MA]

Bobby has returned.

Bronson is no more.

 

[Branduil]

Fandango trying to get free advertisement by announcing presale records being broken with every big film this year doesn't help either. I can see how "second highest presales of all time" could lead to more optimism. $150M is a great opening, but it's third for the year, and not a ton higher than stuff like Deadpool or Suicide Squad when you adjust for the differences in Thursday gross.


So for sake of argument, let's say this weekend is $145M. The same opening weekend multiplier as The Force Awakens would give Rogue One a domestic total $547M off of a $145M opening.

Eragon (2006) had the worst legs for any film opening on the third weekend in December since the start of the new millennium (The Force Awakens actually has the second worse legs in that slot). If Rogue One has Eragon's OW multiplier, it will make $468M off of a $145M opening weekend.

I completely forgot Eragon was a thing.

 

[kswiston]

How good is $70 mil for today?

It would mean that Friday wasn't nearly as previews frontloaded as TFA's first Friday was. I think that was expected though. I'm most curious about Saturday. Being a smaller film, Rogue One doesn't have nearly as much availability constraint as TFA had.

 

[BronsonLee]

Bobby has returned.

Bronson is no more.

I SHALL NEVER TIRE

Spoiler

Bobby being back just gives us the stat boost MovieGAF needed

 

[Branduil]

The first Monday numbers will be when it gets really interesting. I still remember the shock from TFA's first Monday.

 

[kswiston]

Deadline was saying in one of their articles today that 73% of US K-12 students were off of school on TFA's first Monday, while Rogue One's stat is 37% of k-12 students off of school.

I don't think that Rogue One's Monday will be as inflated relative to its opening weekend. It should have a better first week of January (relatively), given where the holidays fall this year though.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Deadline was saying in one of their articles today that 73% of US K-12 students were off of school on TFA's first Monday, while Rogue One's stat is 37% of k-12 students off of school.

TFA really was the perfect (SW) storm.

 

[kswiston]

TFA really was the perfect (SW) storm.

Yup. This year has been a kick back into reality as far as mega-weekends go. Our top opener this year was down $69M from TFA's record weekend.

Honestly, even with Episode VIII out next year, I don't think anything will break that record for awhile yet.

 

[Anth0ny]

Deadline was saying in one of their articles today that 73% of US K-12 students were off of school on TFA's first Monday, while Rogue One's stat is 37% of k-12 students off of school.

I don't think that Rogue One's Monday will be as inflated relative to its opening weekend. It should have a better first week of January (relatively), given where the holidays fall this year though.

Yeah, weather was shit this weekend and kids aren't out of school yet. Christmas weekend will be weird, but I expect the weekdays from dec 26-30 to be higher than usual for this movie.

 

[CrichtonKicks]

Deadline was saying in one of their articles today that 73% of US K-12 students were off of school on TFA's first Monday, while Rogue One's stat is 37% of k-12 students off of school.

I don't think that Rogue One's Monday will be as inflated relative to its opening weekend. It should have a better first week of January (relatively), given where the holidays fall this year though.

Yeah, a lot of K-12 kids had off an entire two week period for the holidays last year. That's incredibly rare. This year, by contrast, my kids don't get out until next Thursday.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Yup. This year has been a kick back into reality as far as mega-weekends go. Our top opener this year was down $69M from TFA's record weekend.

Honestly, even with Episode VIII out next year, I don't think anything will break that record for awhile yet.

Well, they put the band back together in TFA for the first time in 32 years. Really hard to re-create that kinda hype.

 

[3N16MA]

Fandango trying to get free advertisement by announcing presale records being broken with every big film this year doesn't help either. I can see how "second highest presales of all time" could lead to more optimism. $150M is a great opening, but it's third for the year, and not a ton higher than stuff like Deadpool or Suicide Squad when you adjust for the differences in Thursday gross.


So for sake of argument, let's say this weekend is $145M. The same opening weekend multiplier as The Force Awakens would give Rogue One a domestic total $547M off of a $145M opening.

Eragon (2006) had the worst legs for any film opening on the third weekend in December since the start of the new millennium (The Force Awakens actually has the second worse legs in that slot). If Rogue One has Eragon's OW multiplier, it will make $468M off of a $145M opening weekend.

So it has a good shot at dethroning Dory at the DOM BO. 507M is right in the middle of those two numbers which would be a great run.

 

[kswiston]

Well, they put the band back together in TFA for the first time in 32 years. Really hard to re-create that kinda hype.

The only thing that feels like it has a shot at topping $250M opening weekend is Episode IX. People like their finales.

So it has a good shot at dethroning Dory at the DOM BO. 507M is right in the middle of those two numbers which would be a great run.

Either that or this film sets a new frontloading record for its week. Eragon numbers on a $150M opening would be $483M.

I was also using the $69M low end of that Rth estimate. If the Friday is closer to $73M, you can bump the weekend up by $10M or so.

 

[Schlorgan]

Just got out of Rogue One. That was really good. A few notes:

-Beautiful movie, in the visual effects but especially in the cinematography.
-Best Star Wars Space battle?
-KOTOR-inspired Rebel ships?
-Some callbacks were weird but appropriate (especially

Spoiler

Red Leader

)
-

Spoiler

CG Tarkin and Leia

were a little weird.
-Good performances all around with Yen, Mendehlson and Tudyk bring the standouts.
-The last ten minutes got me really excited.
-I didn't expect them to

Spoiler

kill off all of the main characters

 

[ryutaro's mama]

The only thing that feels like it has a shot at topping $250M opening weekend is Episode IX. People like their finales.

This is true and Trevmorrow is gonna bring it, set pieces wise, even if the actual film ends up lacking in substance.

IX is gonna be HUGE.

 

[Anth0ny]

I kinda feel like Disney will announce episode X before IX even comes out lol

Hope not though

 

[vinnygambini]

It got me thinking, 2017 is going to be the battle of the titans: 3 IP's that have 2 films with billion dollar grosses are about to compete to have a shot to get that up to 3 films

- Pirates
- Tranformers
- Star Wars

Star Wars will get there no doubt, Transformers may struggle but I think it'll get there. Pirates is a no I think though.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

It got me thinking, 2017 is going to be the battle of the titans: 3 IP's that have 2 films with billion dollar grosses are about to compete to have a shot to get that up to 3 films

- Pirates
- Tranformers
- Star Wars

Star Wars will get there no doubt, Transformers may struggle but I think it'll get there. Pirates is a no I think though.

Guardians 2 will likely outpace Transformers so Disney wins all 3 spots on top of the podium.

 

[vinnygambini]

Guardians 2 will likely outpace Transformers so Disney wins all 3 spots on top of the podium.

? Guardians got no billion dollar gross under it's belt. I have a hard time seeing your point to what I said sorry.

There's also the Jurassic IP that would have potentially 3 films gross a billion or more coming in 2018!

 

[Anth0ny]

It got me thinking, 2017 is going to be the battle of the titans: 3 IP's that have 2 films with billion dollar grosses are about to compete to have a shot to get that up to 3 films

- Pirates
- Tranformers
- Star Wars

Star Wars will get there no doubt, Transformers may struggle but I think it'll get there. Pirates is a no I think though.

Transformers will get there thanks to China. I expect domestic to be down again from the last transformers.

I wonder how china will respond to Spider-Man. Has the potential to be #2 next year after Star Wars I think.

 

[JeffZero]

I'd be pretty damn surprised if Rogue One went Full Eragon. Folks seem to be liking this flick leaps more than that one.

 

[kswiston]

It got me thinking, 2017 is going to be the battle of the titans: 3 IP's that have 2 films with billion dollar grosses are about to compete to have a shot to get that up to 3 films

- Pirates
- Tranformers
- Star Wars

Star Wars will get it, Transformers may struggle but I think it'll get there. Pirates is a no.

I am going to call a miss for Transformers as well. Exchange rates are terrible. Dark of the Moon and Age of Extinction would have both been around $950M WW using today's rates. Transformers 5 doesn't look like the sort of product that is going to rebound non-Chinese grosses either.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

I think TF5 and Pirates 4 will both struggle to hit $200M domestically.

Beauty and the Beast should really be considered a major candidate for the billion dollar club next year.

 

[Anth0ny]

I think TF5 and Pirates 4 will both struggle to hit $200M domestically.

Beauty and the Beast should really be considered a major candidate for the billion dollar club next year.

I think there's no doubt tbh. "Live action remakes of Disney classics" is a top tier blockbuster at this point.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

? Guardians got no billion dollar gross under it's belt. I have a hard time seeing your point to what I said sorry.

There's also the Jurassic IP that would have potentially 3 films gross a billion or more coming in 2018!

I think Guardians is gonna challenge for that $1 billion mark this go round.

 

[vinnygambini]

I think domestic may be also down from the previous entry if stays on that release date. If I were Paramount, I'd release Transformers in World War Z's spot and have the three weeks all to itself to get the maximum out of the domestic market given the release schedule.

It'd be up against The Mummy, but I don't see that one succeeding domestically anyway.

If it stays on the release date currently planned, Transformers may need to get a little more out of China to pass a billion. It's a tough one.

 

[kswiston]

I wouldn't be all that surprised if China is down for Transformers 5.

Back when Age of Extinction launched, the Yuan was sitting at 6.2 RMB per USD. Now it's 6.9 RMB per USD and climbing quickly (it was around 6.55 just six months ago).

At today's exchange, Age of Extinction would have made $284M in China (it made $315M back in 2014).


The Fate of the Furious will have the same problem. Furious 7 made $391M in China, but current exchange rates would make that $349M.

Combine that with the fact that the growth of Hollywood films in China has slowed down in the past year, even in local currency. The entire Chinese box office looks like it will be flat, or up single digits from 2015, despite a gigantic first 2 months of the year.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Just got out of Rogue One. That was really good. A few notes:
-I didn't expect them to

Spoiler

kill off all of the main characters

I just can't see how anyone didn't expect that. The second they announced the movie and the plot, that was the first thought that popped into my head. It is the only logical way it could all end.

I think there's no doubt tbh. "Live action remakes of Disney classics" is a top tier blockbuster at this point.

Also, this is a live action remake of one of their most beloved animated classics. If anything, this one is going to be under the microscope much more than the previous live action remakes. No pressure at all...

 

[Bobby Roberts]

I'd be pretty damn surprised if Rogue One went Full Eragon. Folks seem to be liking this flick leaps more than that one.

Yeah, problems with the first third tend to vary, but a lot of people, even those with problems in the first third, come out of the film humming because of how tightly tied together that last third is.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

Yeah, problems with the first third tend to vary, but a lot of people, even those with problems in the first third, come out of the film humming because of how tightly tied together that last third is.

So, much like Avengers and Jurassic World then?

 

[Branduil]

The $150m estimate for Rogue One is actually almost exactly what TFA did in its second weekend. If Rogue One ended up doing TFA numbers minus its first week, it would still make almost $550 million.

TFA making nearly $400 million in its first week is still hard to fathom.

 

[kswiston]

Christmas Eve is going to do its best to mess the second weekend up. The last time Christmas Eve was on a Saturday was 2011. The total box office dropped 40% from Friday, December 23rd that year. Typically the Saturday of that weekend (4th weekend in December) increases by 30% or so (unless X-Mas falls on the Friday or Saturday),

Of course, things will recover on Sunday, since Americans love spending Christmas at the cinema.

 

[Branduil]

So, much like Avengers and Jurassic World then?

I certainly hope Rogue One is better than Jurassic World.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

I certainly hope Rogue One is better than Jurassic World.

I was referring to messy or mediocre first two acts, then the finale being so awesome that is all you think about. Because the only reason JW worked is that finale when they "need more teeth."

And as much as I love Avengers and most of the film, it is really the final act when the battle of NYC happens that it kicks into high gear and gets awesome. Dat Hulk.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

So, much like Avengers and Jurassic World then?

Jurassic World was the first comparison point I thought of after seeing it, yeah. Obviously the movie is overall better, and that last third is way better than JW's, but that was the immediate comparison I made. I think that last third is going to fuel a lot of the positive word of mouth, and even the people more negative on the film might go back once or twice just to experience that last 30-40 minutes again.

And yeah, TFA as the measuring stick only shows just what a fuckin' anomaly TFA was. It was maddening seeing The Hollywood Reporter consistently sliding matter-of-fact statements about Rogue One's potential disappointment into their articles about the film as if anyone anywhere was seriously thinking the film would be considered a flop if it didn't make 250 fuckin' million in 3 1/2 days.

 

[kswiston]

I was referring to messy or mediocre first two acts, then the finale being so awesome that is all you think about. Because the only reason JW worked is that finale when they "need more teeth."

And as much as I love Avengers and most of the film, it is really the final act when the battle of NYC happens that it kicks into high gear and gets awesome. Dat Hulk.

I liked first acts of Avengers. I actually thought the last act was on the weaker side. However, Hulk punching the skydragon thing, and the Loki smash probably hide that on your first viewing or two.

EDIT: Avengers is one of those rare films that I watched twice in theatres. The first time was pretty great, and probably one of my more fun movie going experiences. The second time made me wish I stuck to one viewing.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

And yeah, TFA as the measuring stick only shows just what a fuckin' anomaly TFA was. It was maddening seeing The Hollywood Reporter consistently sliding matter-of-fact statements about Rogue One's potential disappointment into their articles about the film as if anyone anywhere was seriously thinking the film would be considered a flop if it didn't make 250 fuckin' million in 3 1/2 days.

Eh. MJ considered Bad a flop in comparison to Thriller but MJ was also unrealistic in his expectations.

Pretty sure Epic was happy with Bad's numbers even if Mike wasn't.

Something something victim of your own success something.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Eh. MJ considered Bad a flop in comparison to Thriller but MJ was also unrealistic in his expectations.

Michael Jackson wasn't all there on the best of days, man. I'd think the Hollywood Reporter should be operating at an analytical/cognitive level a bit higher than fuckin' "Wacko Jacko"'s weird ass.

They're a trade magazine. They know better than to just put stupid shit out there like "If this movie doesn't make TFA numbers Felicity Jones will be blamed" as if it's even remotely true.

 

[kswiston]

Rogue One's comparisons should be stuff like Fantastic Beasts and Doctor Strange (relative to the strengths of their parent franchises).

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Michael Jackson wasn't all there on the best of days, man. I'd think the Hollywood Reporter should be operating at an analytical/cognitive level a bit higher than fuckin' "Wacko Jacko"'s weird ass.

They're a trade magazine. They know better than to just put stupid shit out there like "If this movie doesn't make TFA numbers Felicity Jones will be blamed" as if it's even remotely true.

Irresponsible journalism is the norm now, unfortunately.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

I think there's no doubt tbh. "Live action remakes of Disney classics" is a top tier blockbuster at this point.

Also, this is a live action remake of one of their most beloved animated classics. If anything, this one is going to be under the microscope much more than the previous live action remakes. No pressure at all...

I'm pretty much thinking the same. If the quality is similar or better than Jungle Book, I think it's going to make a run for $500M domestically.

 

[kswiston]

Here's how I look at it.

Disney's going to spend that $150-200M on something. What's a number that would be difficult for a tentpole to hit if it doesn't have the advantage of being part of the MCU or one of Disney's big animated films? $750M? There's no argument to be made that the $200M spent on Rogue One would be better spent on something else, even if Rogue One ends up making half of The Force Awakens.

 

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

#RogueOne now heading for about $70-72M opening day. Strong A grade from CinemaScore, same as #TheForceAwakens. 66% male aud, 60% 25+.

https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/809997131465551872

 

[PhoncipleBone]

I liked first acts of Avengers. I actually thought the last act was on the weaker side. However, Hulk punching the skydragon thing, and the Loki smash probably hide that on your first viewing or two.

EDIT: Avengers is one of those rare films that I watched twice in theatres. The first time was pretty great, and probably one of my more fun movie going experiences. The second time made me wish I stuck to one viewing.

I was one of the crazies that went to Avengers twice in opening weekend. Once at the midnight release, then again that Saturday night. Seeing that with a packed house that was totally into it was one of the most fun theater experiences ever.

And I do enjoy the first and second acts of Avengers, but feel they are weaker compared to the third act. However, they are important for setting everything up. We need to see the heroes beaten around a bit before seeing them just kicking everything's ass in the finale.
And everything Hulk in the NYC battle is just gold. Before the movie hit and they showed the giant leviathan tearing through a building after Iron Man, I thought to myself that I need to see Hulk just shut that thing down with a quickness. And oh, did he. Still a hype moment for me, because it shows just how one sided any fight with Hulk is.

"I'm always angry..." And then Hulk one punches the Leviathan, and it immediately starts to rethink all of its decisions in life to that point.

The entire battle at the end of Avengers is just a bunch of splash pages brought to life. It is like Whedon knew he may never have another shot to make an Avengers comic brought to life, and went hog wild with that finale. And damn, did he deliver.

And then, he decided to make Age of Ultron a typical Whedon joint, and it suffered greatly for it. Yes, I am still mad at how much Whedon fucked up Age of Ultron. It isn't a terrible film, it is just mediocre, and a huge step down from the first Avengers. Whedon seemed to go full Whedon on it. Hopefully the Russos can deliver the goods with Infinity War. They are 2 for 2 with Marvel so far, which is a better track record than Faverau or Whedon had. Although I think James Gunn will go 2 for 2 easily.