Bobby Roberts
Banned
Harder than three-day old shit, that Bronson Lee.
Hard like salamander dick
Hard like salamander dick
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Wkd Box Office 0101-0316 - Hate flows through BO as TFA eyes all-time DOM record
- Thread starter xaosslug
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$200M is the absolute floor, looking at other blockbusters over the last 2 years. If it only makes $200M people will be shocked
BronsonLee
Member
Of course that's the post at the top of the page. Oooof course.
I run these Boggle streets!
I run these Boggle streets!
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
So no 3000 posts this week? 
The UK list is pretty funny. I think Spectre just passed Avatar also.
Skyfall doubled Quantum of Solace.
Mama Mia and the Full Monty in the top 21.
What's a potential ceiling?
BronsonLee
Member
If it wasn't for the Canadian Dollar, Creed would have made $300M
#ThanksCanada #YouGoddamnGoddamns
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
Almost as much as AOTC.
Highest ever in China is $390 million by Furious 7, so that.
If it somehow gets the record and goes about $390m, it won't be by much.
I'm too afraid to draw conclusions about this.
As said, F7 made $390M. I'd be surprised to see that, but WOM could make it a cultural "must see" type movie. Honestly, it's one of the hardest predictions to nail.
Lifejumper
Member
Bobby Roberts
Banned
Made sure to get that "but not worldwiiiiiide" in the subhead, and then was like "we're not adjusting for inflaaaaatiioonnnn" in the article proper.
Good times.
Good times.
In 20 days. What a run.
BronsonLee
Member
You got a problem with my elite writing, Bobby?!
QuantumZebra
Member
Eywa heard you, J.J. Eywa heard you!
yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay
next step is a billion domestic. I think star wars will hold this record for a long, long time.
friskykillface
Banned
All hail Chewie the god
Yeah, I mean they're definitely interesting, but for me at least, I think regional local currency lists are more illuminating. I just wish there was a place where you could reliably and easily find them.
QuantumZebra
Member
Made new thread to commemorate SW on this historic achievement... now here's to it beating Titanic and Avatar WW (we wish)!
You guys expecting $300m+ in China are going to be severely disappointed.
Tuesdays in general perform better now than they did back in 2009.
Tuesdays in general perform better now than they did back in 2009.
Beating Titanic? Likely but not 100%. Beating Avatar? It's not happening.
Michael F. Assbender
Banned
So did Cameron forget to do the traditional Variety nod or is he just being a dick?
Those are obviously the only two possibilities, with "it's coming later this week" not an option.
China didn't allow it until Jan 9. They have windows where no hollywood movies can play.
Is there a reason for this? Been wondering it myself..
BronsonLee
Member
Probably to avoid too much Western culture drowning out their homegrown products.
Like the above said, it's to restrict foreign films/promote local films. They also put a restriction on the total number of movies for the year and how long they stay in theatres. It was recently around 34 films for the year and a 3 or 4 week time limit?
Ya, those numbers are right, but that might be changing next year (or shortly after) now that the film industry is getting to be so large in China. Hollywood is pushing for more leniency. China is interested in working with western studios on both Hollywood and local Chinese films.
That said, China still stacks the deck in favour of local films. Protection periods are just one of the ways that happens. This summer, Chinese theatres were caught stealing money from Hollywood films and attributing it to local films in an attempt to hit incentives quotas put forth by the Chinese government branch that runs film distribution. Terminator Genisys likely lost between $10-15M to this.
Interesting. Would hate to have to wait this thing out as a SW fan, damn.
I'd forget the "+" but it has to have a decent shot at $300m, no?
Eh, maybe you're right...only 2 U.S. films have ever done it (T: AoE and F7). I guess the only thing "for" it (besides Star Wars being a huge $ success everywhere else) is the overall upward trend of the Chinese box office. We'll know so much more come Monday.
What's your reasoning?
Read my post above yours.
I read yours and asked for his. Good info, but as we've seen TFA is pretty unpredictable as an opening.
BronsonLee
Member
The reasoning is that China Don't Care
Shit I had no clue.
Things are definitely going to be interesting moving forward with China as the biggest film business in town. It'll be interesting to see how this impacts Western productions.
Also, I hope this Chinese explosion means the rest of the world will learn to love Tony Leung as I do.
Danny Glover?
Awesome! Whoa! indeed.
Presales are coming in under expectations. Most Chinese tickets are sold online since you get a discount (instead of a surcharge like you get domestically). In 2015, 58% of tickets were sold online. That average has creeped up over the year. Since online ordering is very strong, presales are strongly correlated with Opening day grosses in China.
3-Days out, opening day presales for SW7 are sitting at about $3M USD. Mojin: The Lost Legend is the most recent domestic Chinese release that will crack $250M USD (it should end up around $260M). Mojin had $3.8M presales at this same point, and opened to $25M on its first day (discounting midnights). That was also a Friday vs TFA's stronger Saturday launch. Also, Chinese government run distribution greatly favours local releases, so they stay in theatres much longer and have much better legs than Hollywood films.
Unless things change drastically in the next 60 hours, we're probably looking at about a $20M first day in China plus another couple million for midnight previews. Given the fact that presales have weakened over the past couple of days in relation to other films, I don't see a turnaround coming.
Furious 7 made over $60M on its first day (a Sunday), on its way to $390M in China. Terminator Genisys made $26M on its first day (also a Sunday), and would have reached $125-130M without China stealing its late run grosses. At the moment $150M in China for Star Wars isn't even locked, and that would be with decent legs. $200M would require amazing legs or an amazing presale turnaround. $300M is a pipe dream at this point. January and February are packed in China. Star Wars will basically be out of theatres in 3 weeks.
Box Office Theory has about the best English language Chinese box office tracking you will find on the net. http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/678-china-box-office-general-discussion-thread/?page=1145
Awesome post.
Thanks a lot for your explanation; best I've seen in regard to Chinese BO predictions. I find it really hard to believe it could possibly only do 150M at the end of its run. Wonder if there are any recent movies with low presales that significantly overperformed (come on, give me some good news). There's still the fact that we have 60 hours too.
Jurassic World had a 13x opening day multiplier, but I think that was a Wednesday opening so opening day wasnt expected to be as high. Still, it was looking like $175m but ended up hitting $228m. Age of Ultron did the opposite. First day suggested 250-275m but it stopped under 235m.
I wouldnt say that $200m for Star Wars is impossible yet if the stars align properly, but setting that as the floor will probably lead to disappointment.
Part of the issue is the franchise in tot really well known in China and if you look at it cold the market there s basically being asked to jump in despite missing the first six episodes. Imagine you had never heard of something then see adverts to see seventh instalment of something? That said the market has done so in the past if the film clicks culturally. Not sure TFA will do so enough to deliver truly huge numbers for the region but it's impossible to tell.
I do have to chuckle Sherlocks cinema release in China might also dampen sales. But he is the worlds greatest detective and I understand the IP is huge in China.
I'm sure TFA will do enough to increase its WW haul but it does seem the upper and lower boundaries are large for the film so it's a bit of a nail bitter expectation wise.
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