Support NeoGAF

[jett]

Looking at this thread then looking at the old TFA boxoffice prediction thread why is it ALWAYS everyone who cheers against TFA's record box office run are the ones who who under predicted the film? Such as the above.

I'm not sure I made a concrete box office prediction for TFA, but if I did it was probably pretty logical. I mean at this rate the only the people that didn't "under-predict" it were the crazies. I just think that scenario would yield the most entertainment value (for me ). But I kinda would like Cameron to retain his exclusive two-billion membership, for completely illogical reasons.

 

[Interfectum]

The avatar fanboys are cheering against Star Wars, the Star Wars fanboys are cheering for it. It's pretty simple.

How can one even be an Avatar fanboy? There doesn't seem to be that much there to satiate long-term fandom. Maybe Cameron fanboy is more accurate.

 

[Pagusas]

How can one even be an Avatar fanboy? There doesn't seem to be that much there to satiate long-term fandom. Maybe Cameron fanboy is more accurate.

I wonder the samething, such a weird movie to be a fanboy of. I can understand other films, but not Avatar.

 

[Cheebo]

I'm not sure I made a concrete box office prediction for TFA, but if I did it was probably pretty logical. I mean at this rate the only the people that didn't "under-predict" it were the crazies. I just think that scenario would yield the most entertainment value (for me ). But I kinda would like Cameron to retain his exclusive two-billion membership, for completely illogical reasons.

This was your post in the Ultron vs TFA bet thread. I just find it strange there is a near 1:1 correlation with those rooting against TFA right now with those who did not pick TFA.

I'm giving it to assvengers for now. Mahvel is just tearing through everything, and Star Wars has been dormant for a while, after a string of dreadful movies. People are really letting their fanboyism get the best of them, and forgetting that Avengers Uno grossed 1.5 billion dollars.

And it wasn't just the crazies. Nearly half the thread picked TFA and noted the actual reasons it ended up crushing it (Star Wars being vastly more popular of a franchise, Star Wars continuing to crush Marvel in merchandise and toys even with no movies, nostalgia, etc). It wasn't being crazy. TFA crushing Ultron was obvious since the second the first teaser dropped and broke all kind of trailer viewing records, people just ignored the evidence.

 

[jett]

This was your post in the Ultron vs TFA bet thread. There is a near 1:1 correlation with those rooting against TFA right now with those who did not pick TFA. It is remarkable.

Like I said, no concrete prediction.

And uh whatever you say buddy.

 

[JeffZero]

jett's post strikes me as pretty normal back there. >_> I never really gave much thought as to which of those two movies would take in more cash, but I still don't see it being too weird for anyone to have picked Age of Ultron.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Maybe Cameron fanboy is more accurate.

I kinda would like Cameron to retain his exclusive two-billion membership, for completely illogical reasons.

You're probably right, Int.

Also, ever notice how the term fanboy is almost inherently derogatory? I remember when it first showed up, and it was basically the thing nerds called you when you were being a shitty nerd. Then it became popularized in the mid 90s where... it was still basically a derogatory. Somewhere along the line it lost its fangs, and now it's basically a word that just means "Fan," but with an extra gendered syllable glued to the end of it for flavor, I guess.

Anyway, is there a finite, pre-planned end to Force Awakens' run? Does it get three weeks and then yanked? Or did Disney managed to broker a deal that lets it play there a little longer? Anyone know what the deal is there?

 

[Cheebo]

Like I said, no concrete prediction.

And uh whatever you say buddy.

It was completely insane to think Ultron ever had a shot at out-grossing the most popular film franchise in existence. I thought everyone saying that, as you did were in denial about the realities of the two franchises. To make that sort of prediction required some level of fanboy/irrational decision making. As is the case in any sort of prediction like this.

To think that there was a world where more people wanted to see an Avengers movie over Star Wars is insane, not just now but earlier in the year. Because Star Wars even in the prequel era and decade of no films ran circles around Marvel in popularity. It was nonsense then, especially now in context.

It's Avatar crushing numbers domestically and Titanic level worldwide numbers of course go beyond what nearly anyone could predict.

 

[JeffZero]

Yeah, the term "fanboy" has been permanently stigmatized for me. I can't read it and not instantly assume it's being used to address something negative. I have to read posts all over again if I begin to suspect someone is actually using the word in a relatively pleasant manner, haha.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

so has James Cameron put up that ad out in Variety to acknowledge that all-important stat(some say the ONLY important stat) domestic box office take yet

 

[Bobby Roberts]

so has James Cameron put up that ad out in Variety to acknowledge that all-important stat(some say the ONLY important stat) domestic box office take yet

Nah.

Maybe Monday?

Wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't happen, honestly. Not out of pettiness or whatever, but I mean - it's an old tradition from the days when people still gave a shit about magazines.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

Nah.

Maybe Monday?

Wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't happen, honestly. Not out of pettiness or whatever, but I mean - it's an old tradition from the days when people still gave a shit about magazines.

and when the domestic total was the big stat

inb4cheebo

 

[kswiston]

Anyway, is there a finite, pre-planned end to Force Awakens' run? Does it get three weeks and then yanked? Or did Disney managed to broker a deal that lets it play there a little longer? Anyone know what the deal is there?

Its more about screen loss in China. Theatres have no contracts that keep films going for 2-3 weeks guaranteed. There are a ton of local films releasing on the 15th.I think it will do well until then. We'll see what legs look like after that though. TFA definitely more competition than Furious 7 had. Kung Fu Panda 3 on Jan 29 will probably mark the end of its run.

 

[Cheebo]

and when the domestic total was the big stat

inb4cheebo

Find me a single studio who would rather make more overseas than what Star Wars did domestic. Because there aren't any. The take home on foreign gross is vastly less than domestic for studios.

 

[duckroll]

Bayformers 4 got dinos and robots. Robot dinos, even. Duckroll's favorite movie confirmed.

Don't get me wrong, robot dinosaurs are AWESOME, and I definitely loved the shit out of that part of the movie. BUT. Robot dinosaurs are not dinosaurs. They are simply robots which resemble dinosaurs. So it doesn't count as the ultimate dream yet. First we need someone to make a Dino Wars movie so we can have dinosaurs with robotic weapons and armor. So they're not robots, but they're dinosaurs which have properties of robots. Also super cool. THEN we need a Robots vs Dinosaurs movie which includes normal robots, dinosaur robots, normal dinosaurs, and dinosaurs with augmented weapons. ALL IN ONE FILM. The world will not be able to accept so much awesome in one package. That is when all things will come to an end.

 

[jett]

It was completely insane to think Ultron ever had a shot at out-grossing the most popular film franchise in existence. I thought everyone saying that, as you did were in denial about the realities of the two franchises.

To think that there was a world where more people wanted to see an Avengers movie over Star Wars is insane, not just now but earlier in the year. Because Star Wars even in the prequel era and decade of no films ran circles around Marvel in popularity.

Really? It was insane (of all things) to think that the sequel to a well-received by critics and audiences alike 1.5 billion grossing movie would outgross TFA, in a post that was literally made over a year ago?

Marvel Studios didn't even exist when Episode 3 came out.

To make it clearer, when you initially brought all of this shit up, I thought you were talking about prediction figures, not some random Avengers vs. TFA thread. The crazies in my post referred to people predicting over two billion or three. Which was fucking crazy. At the time. Obviously not so crazy anymore.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Its more about screen loss in China. Theatres have no contracts that keep films going for 2-3 weeks guaranteed.

Okay, cool. I'd been told there were contracts with foreign distributors that spelled out specifically how long your film got to run, regardless of its success in that region. But instead, Star Wars gets to stretch its legs, however long they may be.

Which, according to you might be about a week before the local films kick in its shins, and then Kung Fu Panda stomps it out.

edit: you think Max Landis sees that gif sometimes, and goes "Man, remember when my douche levels were someone maintainable? What happened to that sweet summer child..."

 

[jett]

Don't get me wrong, robot dinosaurs are AWESOME, and I definitely loved the shit out of that part of the movie. BUT. Robot dinosaurs are not dinosaurs. They are simply robots which resemble dinosaurs. So it doesn't count as the ultimate dream yet. First we need someone to make a Dino Wars movie so we can have dinosaurs with robotic weapons and armor. So they're not robots, but they're dinosaurs which have properties of robots. Also super cool. THEN we need a Robots vs Dinosaurs movie which includes normal robots, dinosaur robots, normal dinosaurs, and dinosaurs with augmented weapons. ALL IN ONE FILM. The world will not be able to accept so much awesome in one package. That is when all things will come to an end.

You've activated the BAYSIGNAL.

 

[kswiston]

Okay, cool. I'd been told there were contracts with foreign distributors that spelled out specifically how long your film got to run, regardless of its success in that region. But instead, Star Wars gets to stretch its legs, however long they may be.

Which, according to you might be about a week before the local films kick in its shins, and then Kung Fu Panda stomps it out.

Well they get a month, but that often doesnt matter since the last week or so is peanuts.

 

[Toa TAK]

edit: you think Max Landis sees that gif sometimes, and goes "Man, remember when my douche levels were someone maintainable? What happened to that sweet summer child..."

Did you ever see his MOS video?

 

[JeffZero]

That is when all things will come to an end.

Well, I mean.

Now I know.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Did you ever see his MOS video?

I stopped watching his videos pretty quickly, but I think I saw that one? Is that where he pitches an even more violent Man of Steel that basically sounds like Batman v. Superman?

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Well they get a month, but that often doesnt matter since the last week or so is peanuts.

Okay, so they DO have a restriction on how long they're able to go.

But like you said, Star Wars basically has a viable week to itself before local films beat it up, and Kung Fu Panda takes it out.

Unless it actually surprises. Which it might do. Or it might not. It's hard to tell when the most reliable predictor was pre-sales for a single theater chain that now apparently means not much because they were running a discount deal, although we don't know if they were running a discount deal for the previous movies either, but they probably weren't, but then again, even if they were, it's still a single theater chain, so extrapolation isn't all that great a bet, especially since the market is still pretty new and not that predictable, at least by our standards.

So yeah, buy a powerball ticket and wait to see if you got four, five, or six numbers.

 

[Anth0ny]

I didn't mean fanboy in a derogatory fashion at all lol. but it's weird how negative that work had been spun in recent years.


also star wars is going to beat furious 7 in china. book it.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

The word fanboy began negatively. Because it's a negative. A fanboy is a fan who can't handle their fandom, like a little boy. That's it.

Over time, it got cleaned up and wore a nicer hoodie.

 

[kswiston]

also star wars is going to beat furious 7 in china. book it.

Might as well stick to $3b worldwide at this point.

 

[Surfinn]

How long until the premier?

Funny how so many people who had never followed any sort of movie tracking in China before suddenly got so excited at by the hour updates of estimated ticket pre-sales at a single chain (?) without knowing anything about how the data might have extrapolated historically or how data sets might have changed over given periods. I guess people like watching numbers get larger and pretend it means something while getting excited over nothing. That explains the popularity of MMOs anyway.

It's just for fun, spurs some hope for fans that the movie will do well in one of the world's largest markets. No one is claiming to be an expert or that these presales mean instant success.

 

[MMarston]

I stopped watching his videos pretty quickly, but I think I saw that one? Is that where he pitches an even more violent Man of Steel that basically sounds like Batman v. Superman?

Max Landis can be a pretty creative guy and can do some pretty fun projects if he puts his mind to it (e.g. Death and Return of Superman, Wrestling Isn't Wrestling).

Everything else seems to overly obnoxious, narcissistic chaff. Something that, as you pointed out, seems to have increased when I recently re-visited his YT channel.

 

[Toa TAK]

I stopped watching his videos pretty quickly, but I think I saw that one? Is that where he pitches an even more violent Man of Steel that basically sounds like Batman v. Superman?

I think that was his take on Death of Superman (??) with Braniac at the end, right?

The video for anyone who's interested.

 

[kswiston]

How long until the premier?

Midnight shows started 30mins ago

We'll have first day numbers for China tomorrow morning. Maybe a rough estimate tonight.

 

[BronsonLee]

also star wars is going to beat furious 7 in china. book it.

You never had me
You never had your car!

 

[Surfinn]

Midnight shows started 30mins ago

We'll have first day numbers for China tomorrow morning. Maybe a rough estimate tonight.

Thanks for this and for the other information you've provided throughout the thread. Very informative.

 

[Svafnir]

Estimated China midnight number is 2.7m USD.

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/685469644942110720

"Which is about 17.8m yuan. This is the 4th biggest midnight opening of all time in China, behind Transformers 4 (21.1m yuan), Age of Ultron (29.8m), and Furious 7 (52.5m)."

Reddit source.

 

[BumRush]

Estimated China midnight number is 2.7m USD.

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/685469644942110720

"Which is about 17.8m yuan. This is the 4th biggest midnight opening of all time in China, behind Transformers 4 (21.1m yuan), Age of Ultron (29.8m), and Furious 7 (52.5m)."

Reddit source.

All 3 of those films finished +$220M but obviously it's assuming a lot to say TFA will perform the same.

 

[pestul]

Estimated China midnight number is 2.7m USD.

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/685469644942110720

"Which is about 17.8m yuan. This is the 4th biggest midnight opening of all time in China, behind Transformers 4 (21.1m yuan), Age of Ultron (29.8m), and Furious 7 (52.5m)."

Reddit source.

1/3 of F7.. ouch.

 

[Concept17]

Don't get me wrong, robot dinosaurs are AWESOME, and I definitely loved the shit out of that part of the movie. BUT. Robot dinosaurs are not dinosaurs. They are simply robots which resemble dinosaurs. So it doesn't count as the ultimate dream yet. First we need someone to make a Dino Wars movie so we can have dinosaurs with robotic weapons and armor. So they're not robots, but they're dinosaurs which have properties of robots. Also super cool. THEN we need a Robots vs Dinosaurs movie which includes normal robots, dinosaur robots, normal dinosaurs, and dinosaurs with augmented weapons. ALL IN ONE FILM. The world will not be able to accept so much awesome in one package. That is when all things will come to an end.

See this guy just gets it.

 

[firelogic]

Disney's HUGE marketing push in China detailed. China's largest theatre owners predicted an average of $277M when all is said and done.

"Disney's first step was to partner with Chinese Internet giant Tencent to make the entire Star Wars saga available for streaming online. In addition to the first six movies, Tencent's digital Star Wars hub also rolled out an array of supplementary content, including shorts, behind-the-scenes features, official merchandise offers and more.

The studio then dispatched a small army of Stormtroopers to climb the Great Wall, creating a set of publicity images that promptly went viral worldwide, followed by the installation of life-size X-wings and TIE fighters in the public plazas of Beijing and Shanghai's most fashionable shopping districts. J.J. Abrams, Daisy Ridley and John Boyega jetted east shortly after Christmas for a glitzy premiere held in Shanghai's Grand Theatre, where an Imax screen was specially built for the event.

Most savvy of all, perhaps, Chinese pop star Lu Han was recruited to serve as an “honorary Jedi" and local promotional partner. The rising 25-year-old star's boyish looks and influential online brand have earned him a reputation as "China's Justin Bieber," and he has been instrumental in building awareness among the young female Chinese demographic, which wields considerable influence over movie grosses. Han released a music video on Wednesday for his latest single, "Inner Force," which features extensive footage from the film (see it here).

Other efforts have included promotional spots on Running Man, one of China's most watched reality shows, and a specially created set of shareable emoticons for QQ, the instant messaging service preferred by Chinese young people (think Snapchat)"

 

[Nibel]

so has James Cameron put up that ad out in Variety to acknowledge that all-important stat(some say the ONLY important stat) domestic box office take yet

I wished you were James Cameron

 

[QuantumZebra]

1/3 of F7.. ouch.

As long as it breaks $200 milly in China I think we will see it beat Titanic.

If it somehow blows up there ($400+) ... THEN we will see if it can take out Avatar WW

 

[Jack The Nipper]

china is such a wild card but like I said weeks ago it isn't a movie that can easily draw them in. They know nothing about it for the most part.

If it hits buzz then that will be the key.

I could see a struggle to 200 million but if it hits a nice buzz then much higher. Fast already has a big fan base here. Even see the old man in the small food store watching it on his laptop and he doesnt know a word of english

 

[Anth0ny]

1/3 of F7.. ouch.

worry not, star wars will have legs even the rock would be jealous of

 

[Surfinn]

Estimated China midnight number is 2.7m USD.

https://twitter.com/ChinaBoxOffice/status/685469644942110720

"Which is about 17.8m yuan. This is the 4th biggest midnight opening of all time in China, behind Transformers 4 (21.1m yuan), Age of Ultron (29.8m), and Furious 7 (52.5m)."

Reddit source.

Surprising to me. I get that the franchise hasn't been popular in China, but this is a movie that has a broad appeal to the general audience. Every single person I've seen it with who hasn't seen a SW movie or was never a fan enjoyed TFA, and I've seen paralleled semtiment online. A while back people were saying general movie fans would enjoy TFA even MORE than SW enthusiasts (I think it was Bobby), and I think that's definitely the case. As a movie goer, how does the movie not have as much appeal (in comparison to other top films) there? I don't get it.

But.. we shall see.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Funny how so many people who had never followed any sort of movie tracking in China before suddenly got so excited at by the hour updates of estimated ticket pre-sales at a single chain (?) without knowing anything about how the data might have extrapolated historically or how data sets might have changed over given periods. I guess people like watching numbers get larger and pretend it means something while getting excited over nothing.

THIS THIS THIS

It was a fun read though.

 

[Jack The Nipper]

Surprising to me. I get that the franchise hasn't been popular in China, but this is a movie that has a broad appeal to the general audience. Every single person I've seen it with who hasn't seen a SW movie or was never a fan enjoyed TFA, and I've seen paralleled semtiment online. A while back people were saying general movie fans would enjoy TFA even MORE than SW enthusiasts (I think it was Bobby), and I think that's definitely the case. As a movie goer, how does the movie not have as much appeal (in comparison to other top films) there? I don't get it.

But.. we shall see.

a lot of people just dont like these kind of movies. My friend likes gone girl, fast even liked pixels but she felt bored to death with original star wars.

 

[PhoncipleBone]

.

To think that there was a world where more people wanted to see an Avengers movie over Star Wars is insane, not just now but earlier in the year. Because Star Wars even in the prequel era and decade of no films ran circles around Marvel in popularity.It was nonsense then, especially now in context.

 

[firelogic]

china is such a wild card but like I said weeks ago it isn't a movie that can easily draw them in. They know nothing about it for the most part.

If it hits buzz then that will be the key.

I could see a struggle to 200 million but if it hits a nice buzz then much higher. Fast already has a big fan base here. Even see the old man in the small food store watching it on his laptop and he doesnt know a word of english

Disney's done all they can to get the word out. Disney's marketing in China.

 

[Chamber]

Surprising to me. I get that the franchise hasn't been popular in China, but this is a movie that has a broad appeal to the general audience. Every single person I've seen it with who hasn't seen a SW movie or was never a fan enjoyed TFA, and I've seen paralleled semtiment online. A while back people were saying general movie fans would enjoy TFA even MORE than SW enthusiasts (I think it was Bobby), and I think that's definitely the case. As a movie goer, how does the movie not have as much appeal (in comparison to other top films) there? I don't get it.

But.. we shall see.

All of those movies had recent entries to help build an audience. The last Star Wars movie was over a decade ago and it wasn't that good. I think that's why a lot of people expect Ep VIII to do better than VII overseas.

Even still, it had the 4th biggest midnight showing ever and people are shook. Some perspective would help.

 

[Anth0ny]

a lot of people just dont like these kind of movies. My friend likes gone girl, fast even liked pixels but she felt bored to death with original star wars.

that's different. the new star wars is basically the original star wars just faster and more intense

 

[Surfinn]

a lot of people just dont like these kind of movies. My friend likes gone girl, fast even liked pixels but she felt bored to death with original star wars.

But that's exactly my point. TFA is drastically different from the pacing and direction of the OT and PT. It feels totally different, which explains why people who just enjoy action/adventure movies fit right in.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Disney's HUGE marketing push in China detailed. China's largest theatre owners predicted an average of $277M when all is said and done.

Huh. That's more optimistic than we'd been thinking. Then again, they're theater owners, so maybe they have reason to be a little more optimistic?

A while back people were saying general movie fans would enjoy TFA even MORE than SW enthusiasts (I think it was Bobby), and I think that's definitely the case.

Was indeed. Even wrote a feature on it.