Wkd Box Office 01•08-10•16 - #1 (& Oscar? >_>) elude Leo as TFA 4peats & breaks China

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ryutaro's mama said:
Translation: TFA was as heavily front loaded as I and others thought it would be. TFA is behaving like a heavily anticipated blockbuster, complete with predictable drops.

Avatar behaved how it fucking chose to. No one knew week to week what was coming.
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Pretty much. It's the difference between a known IP and a unknown.

Unknown has to find an audience. Star Wars it's obviously built in.
 
So, TFA actually hewed extremely close to the projections I made using Sherlock Holmes drops. My numbers said $28.7 million Mon-Thu, TFA made $28.2. The weekend was $41.4 vs. $41.6(projected). I guess I should look at Sherlock Holmes for next week.
 
Holmes had a pretty good rebound for the weekend of the 15th, actually. 55% drop to a 40% drop (followed by a couple 30% weekends, too) Lost some theaters that weekend, though. Is Star Wars finally gonna start losing screens next weekend, as well?
 
I don't know if we'll ever see something like Titanic again. Everyone was going to see it, it's still at #2 WW and ticket prices were so much lower then.
 
Inebriated said:
I don't know if we'll ever see something like Titanic again. Everyone was going to see it, it's still at #2 WW and ticket prices were so much lower then.
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Yeah that was insane. Let's not forget the 28M dollar opening weekend. LOL! And it played for what 8 months?
 
Branduil said:
Well, almost every movie ever is frontloaded compared to Avatar. And TFA had the biggest opening weekend of all time, so that frontloads things even more. Its multiplier is going to get close to 4 which is actually extremely good for an opening weekend of that size(obviously). Previous opening weekend record holders had multipliers of about 3 which TFA already surpassed last week.
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It also broke a shit ton of weekday records because it came out during a major holiday season. Released in May it might have done about the same numbers but much slower. The reality is it doesn't have the Worldwide pull of Avatar.
 
excelsiorlef said:
It also broke a shit ton of weekday records because it came out during a major holiday season. Released in May it might have done about the same numbers but much slower. The reality is it doesn't have the Worldwide pull of Avatar.
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Pretty much. Cameron's movies play so damn well overseas.

Thus, I have no doubt Avatar 2 pulls in 2B.
 
So if TFA follows Sherlock Holmes drops this week, it will do $14 million Mon-Thu, $25 million on the weekend, and another $6 million on MLK Jr. Day, bringing it's total to $857 million.
 
Branduil said:
So if TFA follows Sherlock Holmes drops this week, it will do $14 million Mon-Thu, $25 million on the weekend, and another $6 million on MLK Jr. Day, bringing it's total to $857 million.
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I just don't see it collapsing that fast... it would definitely put the kibosh on topping Titanic WW though.
 
Sherlock Homes drops going forward from this weekend would put The Force Awakens at $920M Domestic.

However, I think Star Wars will start to pull ahead of Sherlock Holmes in holds this coming week. $16M the previous weekend wasn't enough to keep it from losing a lot of screens and a decent amount of venues to new films (Book of Eli, and the wide release of The Lovely Bones). Star Wars is coming off of a $40M+ weekend.

Avatar lost 137 venues on MLK weekend. I think Star Wars will have a similar or slightly higher loss. There are three wide releases coming next weekend that will need a lot of screens, but we still have Point Break and Concussion tying up 2k venues a piece. Joy is tying up 2500 venues. Chipmunks almost 3k. Hunger Games, Creed and The Good Dinosaur are all over 1k. All of those films combined made half as much as Star Wars did this weekend. That's where most of the screen losses will come from. Hateful 8 will be down a fair deal as well.

Star Wars needs a drop of around 25% during the 3-Day weekend next week to have any hope at getting within stretch range of $1B. Tough, but not impossible.
 
BumRush said:
Waaaaait, multiple people in here think that the revenant had....shitty cinematography???
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It's GAF. Anything that becomes heavily praised will later get slammed by a vocal, attention seeking minority soon after.

In this case you have one of the consensus best cinematographers alive growing in recognition and so it is fitting he will start getting his haters.
 
So, the Revenant took home best (dramatic) picture, director, and actor at the Golden Globes. That should be good for legs next week.
 
I don't really get the frontloaded talk. TFA's opening weekend is going to end up being 25-26% of it's final gross which is insane considering how big it's opening weekend actually was. There's only so much money to be made.
 
Chamber said:
I don't really get the frontloaded talk. TFA's opening weekend is going to end up being 25-26% of it's final gross which is insane considering how big it's opening weekend actually was. There's only so much money to be made.
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Frontloaded doesn't mean first weekend only.

The majority of the people that wanted to see it, saw it in huge numbers in the first 3 weeks.

It's not poised to have insane legs and has had drops consistent with a massive summer blockbuster.

What would you call that?
 
I have a feeling The Revenant actuals will be much higher. Movie was completely sold out at my local theatre. I was forced to sit in the very front row but damn...what an experience.
 
FullMetalx117 said:
I have a feeling The Revenant actuals will be much higher. Movie was completely sold out at my local theatre. I was forced to sit in the very front row but damn...what an experience.
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I'd pass in those cases. Was feeling super hot in the back center of sw. Hate when I need to get up and can't see. Moved to one of the free seats next to the aisle and felt much better. I hate going to the cinema
 
Inebriated said:
I don't know if we'll ever see something like Titanic again. Everyone was going to see it, it's still at #2 WW and ticket prices were so much lower then.
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Taking a look at Box Office Mojos tickets sold. Avatar ends up with close to 40million less tickets sold. Force Awakening is about to pass Avatar.

It's no surprise still why Star Wars did as well as it did. Looking at it. ROTJ, ESB, FA, and PM. All sold 90million+ tickets. ANH is the second most, only behind Gone with the Wind. Even ROTS and AOTC are still in the top 70.
 
shintoki said:
Taking a look at Box Office Mojos tickets sold. Avatar ends up with close to 40million less tickets sold. Force Awakening is about to pass Avatar.

It's no surprise still why Star Wars did as well as it did. Looking at it. ROTJ, ESB, FA, and PM. All sold 90million+ tickets. ANH is the second most, only behind Gone with the Wind. Even ROTS and AOTC are still in the top 70.
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Box Office Mojo's adjusted list has a lot of issues with inaccuracy, and shouldn't be used as a precise measure of attendance. For recent films, it doesn't take ticket premiums into consideration. Avatar's attendance was closer to 75M. The Force Awakens will finish up around 95M. Gone with the wind took 7 years to hit 100M tickets (and the total on Mojo is inflated). A New Hope's initial run was also 90-100M tickets, but it was re-released in the summers of 1978 and 1979 (in addition to the two documented re-releases on BOM).
 
Every list you look at with adjusted box office numbers varies wildly. One of them I saw has Gone with the Wind at like $6.5B. I don't even want to think about it anymore.
 
Looking very far into the future with release dates, Guardians of the Galaxy 2 is set for May 5 and Star Wars 8 is set for May 26--is Disney not worried about potential cannibalization?
 
numble said:
Looking very far into the future with release dates, Guardians of the Galaxy 2 is set for May 5 and Star Wars 8 is set for May 26--is Disney not worried about potential cannibalization?
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When Avatar 2 gets pushed back from Dec 2017, SW8 will take its spot.
 
No way in hell that Star Wars misses its 40th anniversary. Guardians will suffer being released in the same month, but 2017 is stacked and a May weekend will still bring in $$$. Disney could hold off on the preordering until later, cannibalization ahoy
 
ryutaro's mama said:
Frontloaded doesn't mean first weekend only.

The majority of the people that wanted to see it, saw it in huge numbers in the first 3 weeks.

It's not poised to have insane legs and has had drops consistent with a massive summer blockbuster.

What would you call that?
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Avatar also made the majority of its gross over the first 3 weeks (just barely). What is the official definition of front loaded when it comes to BO gross?

TFA is going to have an excellent multiplier and probably top 2 of any film with a 100M OW. It's going to be on par or close to Inside Out and American Sniper which are both regarded as having very good legs.
 
3N16MA said:
Avatar also made the majority of its gross over the first 3 weeks (just barely). What is the official definition of front loaded when it comes to BO gross?

TFA is going to have an excellent multiplier and probably top 2 of any film with a 100M OW. It's going to be on par or close to Inside Out and American Sniper which are both regarded as having very good legs.
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Not the majority of it's overseas grosses iirc.
 
Nodnol said:
I've lost track; how likely will TFA take over $2 billion world wide?
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Not quite a lock but looking very likely. Avatar looks way out of reach now unless TFA musters some astonishing legs worldwide. Titanic is closer but even that looks a fair gap now.

I reckon TFA will break $2 billion but finish shy of Titanic on current trends/
 
numble said:
For GotG 1, it made about $100 million after the 3rd week, including around $75 million in weeks 4-8, and it was the #1 movie for weeks 4-6. And a lot of that was owing due to lack of competition in the market.
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Are this domestical numbers or international and domestical? Because Guardians released like a month later in a couple of european countries.
 
GAMEPROFF said:
Are this domestical numbers or international and domestical? Because Guardians released like a month later in a couple of european countries.
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I was talking about domestic release dates so of course domestic. But you have an implied point--the fact that international releases don't tend to perfectly line up with domestic releases would make it more likely for the 2 Disney movies to cannibalize each other internationally.
 
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