It doesn't try to be both though. It's really just a prequel. I'm not sure where any talk about reboot comes from. The Magneto childhood scenes are directly based on the one established in X-Men 1. The setting and history is meant to be consistent with the rest of the X-Men movies. There is no reboot at all. It's a prequel series.
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Wkd Box Office Est. 0511-13 12 - Depp/Burton bask in shadow of Whedon's Avengers
- Thread starter xaosslug
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It doesn't try to be both though. It's really just a prequel. I'm not sure where any talk about reboot comes from. The Magneto childhood scenes are directly based on the one established in X-Men 1. The setting and history is meant to be consistent with the rest of the X-Men movies. There is no reboot at all. It's a prequel series.
planar1280
Banned
Mondays numbers are out
https://twitter.com/#!/ERCboxoffice/status/202405911338295296
Avengers 8.2 (381 Million)
Dark Shadows 2.3 (32 Million)
Avengers down 74% from sunday and 57 % from last monday
DS down 76% from sunday
https://twitter.com/#!/ERCboxoffice/status/202405911338295296
Avengers 8.2 (381 Million)
Dark Shadows 2.3 (32 Million)
Avengers down 74% from sunday and 57 % from last monday
DS down 76% from sunday
sonycowboy
Member
@ERCboxoffice said:
Avengers had $18,898,999 last Monday, so that's a 56.6% drop. (TDK had a 57.1% Mon-Mon drop)
planar1280
Banned
if it needs to get to 600 it should have tracked at 10+ million on Monday. Long term tracking is now at 560-580 Million, that is just 20-40 million above TDK
So it's looking pretty likely that it will pass TDK? And maybe even Titanic?
Why are you making it sound like a meagre achievement? It's third best ever.
sonycowboy
Member
It looks to just miss 400M by Thursday... But still get to 450 by Sunday.
Ehhh... I don't see that. One day that is a non-summer weekday I don't think can change the projection that much.
planar1280
Banned
TDK most likely 95% chance, chances of passing titanics 650 million figure? i think less than 10 %
planar1280
Banned
who said its a meagre achievement. I am laying realistic numbers for people who think it will actually pass titanics number let alone Avatars, it will easily make around 150 million more domestically, but for it to get to 650 Million it would need to come close to 50 million again on memorial weekend.
AbsoluteZero
Banned
Think I might try to see Avengers again today or tomorrow at The Prytania. Problem is that the showing is at 5:15 and I don't know if I can make it there in 15 minutes from my workplace. Hmm.
XiaNaphryz
LATIN, MATRIPEDICABUS, DO YOU SPEAK IT
If you don't care about the trailers beforehand, don't you have more time?
Sho_Nuff82
Member
How is Emma Frost a grown woman in the 1960's world of First Class, but a teenager in the roughly 1980's universe of XMen Origins: Wolverine? How is a bald, non-crippled Patrick Stewart Xavier present at the end of Wolverine? How is Cyclops' brother about 20 years older than he is?
It's much easier to see it as a reboot.
Didn't you also poo-poo the chances of a $100 mil second weekend based on last Mondays numbers?
I don't think they see Origins as canon at all. As far as the others, I'm sure they could easily write around that. I don't think First Class is necessarily a direct prequel, but it's also not a reboot either.
AbsoluteZero
Banned
True, though being a one-screen theater I can't imagine how many trailers they'd possibly play.
I might try to get out early maybe tomorrow or Thursday.
I don't understand the methodology that only gets the Avengers to 580M.
It's debut was much bigger than TDK, its second weekend hold was better than TDK, and now its second Monday has held better than TDK.
Up through this point (Day 11) TDK had earned 65% of its ultimate gross. If The Avengers holds this pace, it is on track for $627M.
planar1280
Banned
Updated
planar1280
Banned
yes I did, I had it at 85-95 Million. I did NOT have it at 115-120 million that many people had.
Competition: next weekend it will probably get 50-55 million staying number one, but then comes MIB III and summer officially begins with big blockbusters one after another, competition kills legs. TDK had hardly any competition from big blockbusters after its release.
next weekend:
Battleship - flop
Dictator - medium
May 22nd weekend
MIB III - blockbuster
Chernobyl Diaries - medium
May 29th weekend
Battlefield America - medium
Snow White and the Huntsman - between medium and blockbuster
June 8th weekend
Prometheus - Blockbuster
Madagascar - Blockbuster
June 15th weekend
Rock of Ages - medium to blockbuster
June 22nd weekend
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter - medium
Brave - Blockbuster
June 29th weekend
GI Joe 2 - medium to blockbuster
July 6th weekend
Amazing spiderman - blockbuster
Savages - medium
July 13th weekend
Ice Age 3 - blockbuster
July 20th - weekend
Dark Knight Rises - blockbuster
July 27th weekend
Step up revolution - medium
The watch - medium
I miss seeing John Carter on that.Updated
vicissitudes
Banned
John Carter is on that. It's the x-axis.
TrumanBurbank
Member
foodtaster
Banned
Updated
Thanks for continually posting the graphs, I find them really interesting. If it's not too much trouble, would it be possible to put Harry Potter DH2 on there? I'm curiously to see how a movie that was so frontloaded would look graphically when compared to the other blockbusters you have listed.
Thanks again for the all the charts.
I don't see this at all. It has held better than the Dark Knight almost every day so far, and is currently running about $58M ahead of the the Dark Knight, yet you think its legs will just drop off resulting in it loosing ground for the rest of its run? The Dark Knight had fairly similar third week competition as the Avengers will have. The Mummy 3 opened to $40M which will probably only be a little lower than Battleship's opening, and Step Brothers' second weekend take was similar to what Dark Shadow will make this weekend. Your competition reasoning also breaks down when you consider week 4 is memorial day weekend. What it loses in later weeks will be made up for on Memorial day. These movies are 90% done by week 5 or 6 anyhow. As long as the Avengers stays competitive through Memorial day, poor late legs are going to make the difference of maybe 5% of the total. Also, Summer can support a number of movies. No reason why the legs for the Avengers will be that poor.
If the rest of the weekdays follow today, the Avengers will make $27.1M through Thursday, putting its total at almost exactly $400M. A 45% drop on its third weekend (which would be steeper than the Dark Knight's 43% third weekend drop), would give the movie $56.7M, putting the total at ~$457M. Another round of 50% weekday drops (which would be high. Iron Man 1 was dropping less than 40% that week) and a 40% weekend drop on the 3 day memorial day weekend (again high), would put the movie at $504M. And that was being conservative.
If you change this weekend's drop to 40%, the following weekday drops to 40%, and the Memorial day drop to 35% you get $518M before Memorial Day Monday. And none of those drops would be particularly amazing for a well liked blockbuster. Iron Man 1 had slightly better drops than this scenario, and it had a $55M opener in its third weekend (Narnia 2) and a $100M opener in its fourth Memorial day weekend (Indy 4). At worst, Avengers will have similar competition.
EDIT: Regarding competition killing legs, Summer 2008 was probably as packed as this summer will be. Most weekends had a $50-60M opener through June and early July leading up to The Dark Knight. Despite this, Iron Man made 21% of its gross after the Sunday of Memorial day weekend. If the Avengers hits $510M by the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend, and has similar legs it will reach $640. To reach $600M after hitting $510 on Memorial Day weekend, Avengers will only need 15% of its total gross going forward.
And just to drive this competition notion into the ground even further, Iron Man made a larger portion of its earnings after its fourth weekend than The Dark Knight did. Despite the fact that it faced major openings almost every weekend, and the Dark Knight coasted with little competition.
planar1280
Banned
Actuals are in for Monday,
The Avengers -- $7,923,789
Dark Shadows -- $2,311,455
The Avengers -- $7,923,789
Dark Shadows -- $2,311,455
If you look at similar movies (Iron Man 2, Thor, etc) Second Monday Drops are usually steeper than week-to-week drops for the rest of the week. I still think the Avengers will hit $400M by Thursday. At the very least, I think the Tues-Wed drop won't be as steep as last week now that demand has been burnt off.
planar1280
Banned
Thanks for continually posting the graphs, I find them really interesting. If it's not too much trouble, would it be possible to put Harry Potter DH2 on there? I'm curiously to see how a movie that was so frontloaded would look graphically when compared to the other blockbusters you have listed.
Thanks again for the all the charts.
http://i.imgur.com/M2WrU.jpg
Tuesdays are always higher than Mondays and Wednesday and Thursdays are always lower than mondays, especially in week 2
TrAcEr_x90
Member
haha, if they were smart, theyd do another release at the end of summer.
Interesting that Avengers has finally started to slow down realistically. It certainly seems that Beating Titanic is almost out of the equation now, but it could still probably settle at about 600 million domestic or so, which would set a really high bar for TDKR. Poor Sculli?
What's XMen Origins: Wolverine?
See this makes it even easier!
What's XMen Origins: Wolverine?
See this makes it even easier!
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
TDKR is really the last blockbuster of the summer, which is going to help it, just like it did for TDK. Really, the only possible $50m opener after it is The Expendables 2.
Tuesday's gross will end up higher. It's just the nature of how Tuesdays perform nowadays, but the Wednesday drop will compensate for it.
Even if you take away Origins. The early scene in X3 where a bald and walking Prof. X visits a young Jean Gray with Magneto screws up the timeline for First Class.
I consider FC a reboot.
Sorry for continuing this OT topic.
DonasaurusRex
Online Ho Champ
looks like MIB III will be the first storm for the Avengers to weather, i dunno how many people are "stoked" for battleship. I guess the real question is what movie is gonna be the word of mouth movie, Avengers is apparently one, I think the next one will be either Prometheus or Brave. If Avengers is still in the top 10 in mid June - July then i see 600m for it.
Damnit, you're all poking holes in my precious theory! Nooooo!
Man, Fox sure sucks at continuity!
Where was this sentiment when the Cameron loyalists downplayed and still do TDK's domestic gross?
Oh my jesus, wow. I never noticed any of that. Then again I just watched those XMen movies for fun, never tried to analyze them or anything. But, yeah, wow, they really fucked their timelines all up didnt they..
Are you talking week-to-week drops? Because out of the last 5 marvel movies to release in the first week of May (ie every major summer starter for the last 5 years), Iron Man 1 was the only one that had a worse week-to-week drop on its second Tuesday compared to its second Monday. Probably because it actually increased on its first Tuesday over the Monday gross (which didn't happen with any other May Marvel film).
A rule that only happens 1 out of 5 times doesn't seem like much of a rule to me. I wouldn't be surprised to see Avengers get a better drop tomorrow.
Also, as an X-men fan, the continuity stuff in First Class really pissed me off. They should have just rebooted the franchise and used the actual first class of X-men (plus Mystique if they needed her in there). Instead they tried to follow the continuity that Wolverine already messed up...
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Batman dulled those scissors earlier and set depth chargers underneath their feet.
Dat prep time!
Dat prep time!
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Even that has it's own problems though. In X-men 1 Xavier explains that Magneto is able to block Cerebro's signals because he helped build it, which is obviously not the case in First Class.
Obviously Cerebro in X-Men is not the same as the one in First Class. Throughout the comic book history, the two have reconciled stuff enough to work together. I could see that happening and, at some point, they build a new Cerebro.
Liquidsnake
Banned
Wow excellent.
Thank you! It still amazes me how slow-boiling Titanic was. It took two months to outstrip DH2 but it still had more than $200M left in its original run. Wow.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
I think it'll pass up Star Wars this weekend. The three openers this weekend (well, 1 on Wednesday) is going to prevent it from dropping like Spider-Man or Iron Man 1 did, but I still see ~$60m.
I think the weekend will be higher than$40M. $55M.
That's next week right?
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