Nope, the 4-day Memorial Day weekend is May 25-28.
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Wkd Box Office Est. 0511-13 12 - Depp/Burton bask in shadow of Whedon's Avengers
- Thread starter xaosslug
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Nope, the 4-day Memorial Day weekend is May 25-28.
Bravo
I would guess $455-460M if it hits ~$400M on Thursday. Avengers won't drop 50-60% on its third weekend after dropping 50% on its second weekend. Second weekend drops are almost always steeper. The only exception would be if a gigantic release was happening on Avenger's third weekend. Even then, Spider-Man 3 only dropped 50% on its third weekend (it dropped 61% the week before), despite Shrek 3 launching to $120M+. Avengers is facing Battleship.
Isn't that... next week?
I guess we'll see. I'm inclined to think that it will be able to hold a solid spot in the top 3 for the foreseeable future.
The lead over Avatar has most likely peaked (max was $160m), now it's all downhill.
Over TDK, it might still increase past yesterday's peak ($59m) after the weekend, but not by much.
As long as Avengers' weekends make up for the weekdays it will continue to increase. With Memorial Day Weekend, we will have to wait until at least May 25th before the Avengers has its largest lead over TDK.
sonycowboy
Member
@ERCboxoffice said:
Amazingly Tuesday went up from Monday (yesterday was 8.2M)... That doesn't ever seem to happen. Anyway, the comparison with TDK is that Avengers dropped 51.9% from last Tuesday where TDK dropped 53.9%, so the drops are still better than TDK so far.
B_Rik_Schitthaus
Banned
...
Didn't someone say earlier that Tuesdays preform better than Monday, while Wednesday and Thursday preform worse than Monday.
sonycowboy
Member
It absolutely happens, I just didn't think it happened in the 2nd week of big movies very often (although it did with Hunger Games), as there's still an accelerated burn off of demand. Also, as it wasn't posted in this thread, Monday's actuals came in at 7.9M instead of the 8.2 originally estimated by ERC. Finally, we are a lock for Thursday hitting 400M in 14 days (vs previous record for TDK of 18 days) and also hitting 450M in 17 days (vs TDK at 27 days)
I was thinking of the May 18-20 weekend as "next week(end)" but I suppose it's more accurately described as "this week". So yeah, you'd be right. My bad. :/
Speedymanic
Banned
So apparently The Dictator is a somewhat good movie. Pretty shocked truth me told, was expected something along the lines of Ali G.
Anyway, seems TA is on the way out and with competition coming up almost every week. Had a good run, I guess...but dat Avvy and Titanic gross is forever out of reach.
The surprising thing to note is that they had almost a thousand more theaters showing TA, but the legs just weren't there.
Anyway, seems TA is on the way out and with competition coming up almost every week. Had a good run, I guess...but dat Avvy and Titanic gross is forever out of reach.
The surprising thing to note is that they had almost a thousand more theaters showing TA, but the legs just weren't there.
ratcliffja
Member
The main reason Avatar is likely untouchable for a while is because it's a movie that basically had to be seen in theaters in 3D because nobody wants to invest in a 3D TV right now. I know a lot of people who are actively seeking to see The Avengers in 2D as I did. Titanic is a significantly more remarkable achievement since it was done without 3D in its original run where it made most of its money. With all that being said, I think The Avengers can make at least 1.5 billion before all is said and done.
Speedymanic
Banned
A good point, but the near 1000 additional theaters showing both2d and 3d (more 3d based on my experience) should have been enough to offset that.
Then there's inflation.
Anyway, seems it was never destined to beat Avvy after that record breaking opening and second week. It burnt out too fast.
People who are comparing The Avengers to Avatar are missing the point. Avatar was released at a different time of the year, when movies open smaller and hold longer. It was also a technological watershed which helped it grow into a cultural event of the sort that's only been seen a handful of times in the last 10-15 years. Acting as if The Avengers is a disappointment because it's not going to pass Avatar is ridiculous since there is no comparison between Avatar/Titanic and 99% of other movies. Besides, Avengers has demonstrated remarkable holds compared to other May movies. It's shown incredibly strong legs for a big-opening summer movie.
Let's not forget that no one thought The Avengers would even come close to what it has already achieved before writing it off, too.
Let's not forget that no one thought The Avengers would even come close to what it has already achieved before writing it off, too.
sonycowboy
Member
Fixed.
Tough comparisons for any movie to those 2 guys... They had everlasting legs for different reasons. And, even with that TA, if it can withstand the competition has a very real shot at matching Titanic's original box office take before the re-release.
But, overseas, TA isn't anywhere close to those movies. It's big, but will be will be lucky to make it to #4 all time internationally behind those and HP7.5
Speedymanic
Banned
yeah, it was more of a response to the hyperbolic talk of it reaching or exceeding Avvy numbers.
It was never going to happen after the explosive OW, there was nowhere to go but down and fast at that. Unlike Avvy, which opened modestly but kept people coming back and back and back...even in the face of some stiff competition, which TA hasn't really had yet.
So, The Avengers actually improved 7% over Monday to earn $8.47M and pass The Hunger Games on the all-time domestic chart. This is only a 52% fall from last Tuesday, as opposed to 54% for TDK. It's also encouraging since Avengers' daily gross fell on each weekday last week. I had thought that Avengers would end up just short of the $400M mark after Thursday, but now I'm going to have to say I think it will pass that and possibly even Spider-Man at $403M.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=avengers11.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=daily&id=avengers11.htm
Thor did it and so did Cap America. I'm pretty sure I can find more examples. Bargain Tuesdays have had a increasing impact in the last 2-3 years.
That said, solid number for Tuesday. This weekend is basically going to decide how the legs are going to be, I know people said the same for last weekend but this weekend is when the summer competition heats up.
Speedymanic
Banned
Real competition will come next week in the form of MiB3. I'd be shocked if TA lost the top spot to either Dictator or BS this weekend.
It wont lose the top spot this weekend. Battleship is tracking really awful and due to the genre of Dictator, it doesnt pose any threat. Avengers will lose some audience as the TA demo will finally have some options.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Avengers is going the first film to top 3 weekends in May since Code of Silence did all the way back in 1985. And in that era the summer BO officially started on Memorial Day weekend, so this is really unbelievably impressive.
T.M. MacReady
NO ONE DENIES MEMBER
No competition after July 20th?
Ice to see you, Batman!!
Ice to see you, Batman!!
MrPink93485
Member
No competition after July 20th?
Ice to see you, Batman!!
That's nearly a month after release, TDKR will have made some 85% of its domestic gross by then
planar1280
Banned
I think that the Avengers will be fine through to the end of the month. Memorial Day is a big weekend. We have had multiple movies break 60-70M opening week on the past, so I think this year can handle whatever MIB3 opens with plus ~$40M for the Avengers.
With an $8.5M Tuesday, Avengers is in a good spot heading into this weekend.
Figure a drop of 20% for tomorrow -> $6.8M
And a 5-6% drop for Thursday -> $6.4M
That would put the total at just over $402M
Assuming a 145% increase on Friday, a 50% increase on Saturday, and a 35% increase on Sunday, you would get:
Fri = 15.7M
Sat = 23.5M
Sun = 15.3M
For a third weekend total of $54.5M and a grand total of $457M.
That would be a 47% weekend drop, which should be fairly conservative. TDK dropped 43% in week 3. If the Avengers dropped 43% this weekend it will make $58.7M. So there is a chance it passes the Original Star Wars by Sunday.
planar1280
Banned
As I see it:
It will make 55 million this weekend. 44 million next weekend (50 million if you could 4 days memorial days), 26 million the next weekend, 12 million the week after, 6 million ...
totalling around 590-600 million
It will make 55 million this weekend. 44 million next weekend (50 million if you could 4 days memorial days), 26 million the next weekend, 12 million the week after, 6 million ...
totalling around 590-600 million
I bet you it will.
What do you wanna bet?
planar1280
Banned
Total Recall will flop and I think it will be third, Bourne might take first place with 60-70 million while TDKR will likely be 2nd. That is if TDKR opening weekend is around the 160-180 range. If it is in the huge 180-200 range TDKR will remain number 1 with 80-90 million.
Spider-man will be a good barometer as to how a reboot within 5 years or original will work at Box Office
Why would TDKR have an $80-90M third weekend even if it does open in the 180-200M range?
planar1280
Banned
oops my bad. he mentioned 10 days later i thought it was the week afterwards, I just looked TR and Bourne come out 15 days after release. In that case it will likely be 2nd place with around 40-50 million
DonasaurusRex
Online Ho Champ
...i havent even seen the new bourne trailer wtf....
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
He should bet everything he has. Because it's a 100% guarantee you'll be wrong.
Probably 3rd place. I can see Total Recall doing fairly.
He should bet everything he has. Because it's a 100% guarantee you'll be wrong.
Well step ahead then son
edit: Mission Impossible did almost 700 WW, whoaza
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Avatar bet sound good?
And I hope one of those films actually moves, for their sake not TDKR. It's beyond retarded and they'll just cannibalize each other.
If it gets to 580M .. which it will, Disney will keep it in theatres long until it gets to 590ish and with some creative accounting boom 600M.
That is all assuming it slows down and doesnt blow past 600M.
If TDKR does $40M third weekend, than Bourne will probably take first place. If TDKR does $50M+, than I am not sure. It will depend whether or not people buy a Bourne movie without Damon in the lead.
Right now, I think Total Recall has the most bomb potential for the summer behind Battleship, so I doubt it will break $40M. I could be wrong though. Maybe it will actually be half decent.
Right now, I think Total Recall has the most bomb potential for the summer behind Battleship, so I doubt it will break $40M. I could be wrong though. Maybe it will actually be half decent.
MrPink93485
Member
Seems doubtful to me that Bourne will open in the 60 M range without Matt Damon and a 5 year gap between the previous one. 40-50 million opening is possible, but that means TDKR can still be #1 that weekend if it opened around 180 million OW.
planar1280
Banned
lets see.
Total Recall's directors best start of a established movie is 33 million OW with Live Free or Die Hard
The screenplay writers resume includes Live Free or Die hard, Unstoppable and Race to Witch Mountain
Colin Farrell whose highest OW movie was SWAT with 37 million..
I think TDKR is safe
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Total Recall is going to bomb.
planar1280
Banned
Speedymanic
Banned
Is there any hype for the new Bourne? Trailer looks decidedly average and I doubt Renner is well known enough to carry something like Bourne.
Has bomb written all over it.
As for TR, I have a feeling it will be a surprise hit.
My current avvy bet will be over by then, so I'm happy to go up against anyone who thinks it will bomb.
It won't do gangbusters, but it will do reasonably well. A solid OW with somewhat good legs.
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