• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Wkd Box Office Est. 05•11-13 •12 - Depp/Burton bask in shadow of Whedon's Avengers

Status
Not open for further replies.

Tobor

Member
I get it! Either Whedon is a total hack and has nothing to do with the success of the Avengers, or Whedon is a visionary in the company of Cameron, Nolan, and Spielberg who single-handedly carried this film to box office records! There is no in-between! Absolutely no way that both Marvel and Whedon contributed to the film's success!

Haha, exactly.
 

kswiston

Member
Yes, Joss made everything work great --- which is awesome, but audiences don't get attached to directors just because they make a studios vision work, they get attached when that director has a unique vision.

I am not arguing that Whedon is equal to Nolan as a director. Nolan's movies have been extremely consistent (the only one I didn't like was Insomnia), and I think he will be a big power player in the Movie industry during the next 20 years.

And yes, the Avengers sold itself. It was always going to open big and make money. However, I think Joss took what could have been a $350-400M film and gave it what it needed to be a $575-625M film. He is responsible for that wider success in the same way Sam Raimi was responsible for the wider success of Spider-Man.
 
Yes, Joss made everything work great --- which is awesome, but audiences don't get attached to directors just because they make a studios vision work, they get attached when that director has a unique vision.

I'm curious, how would you break down the success of a film like Alice?

Was it the IP, Burton, or Depp/Bonham Carter/Hathaway?
 
I am not arguing that Whedon is equal to Nolan as a director. Nolan's movies have been extremely consistent (the only one I didn't like was Insomnia), and I think he will be a big power player in the Movie industry during the next 20 years.

And yes, the Avengers sold itself. It was always going to open big and make money. However, I think Joss took what could have been a $350-400M film and gave it what it needed to be a $575-625M film. He is responsible for that wider success in the same way Sam Raimi was responsible for the wider success of Spider-Man.
I guess I can agree with you here.

I'm curious, how would you break down the success of a film like Alice?

Was it the IP, Burton, or Depp/Bonham Carter/Hathaway?
The combination of all 3 + the post-Avatar 3D craze.

Welcome!

You should catch up on the last couple Box Office threads. Be entertained!
Yes! Also be sure to put Good Job Bob on your ignore list before he disparages the good people at your workplace!

Someone please quote this so he sees it
 
Ouch, just saw that Battleship did $420k from 1,074 theaters at midnights. I'm not sure it can open higher than $25m now.

Taylor Kitsch is having a rough year.
 

artist

Banned
Thor is a bad template for the Avengers. Thor held up well in its second weekend, but was killed in week 3 by Pirates 4 which played to the exact same demographic. Pirates 4 also took most of Thor's 3D venues, opening in 4100+ theatres. Then the week after both the Hang-Over 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2 launched, taking even more screens from Thor. On top of that Bridesmaids and Fast 5 were still going strong.

What Avengers has going for it:

1) No major 3D competition until Memorial Day weekend. Avengers will keep all those 3D screens this weekend.
2) None of the holdovers besides the Avengers are making any money. Dark Shadows will be lucky if it makes 15M this weekend. All other holdovers will be under 5M.
3) All of the new releases added together will make less than Pirates 4 did.
4) It's still making big money, and is about the only family option currently (unless you want to count battleship).

Avengers will continue to hold onto a large proportion of screens and showtimes than Thor because it is making theatres a lot of cash, and there are no better options yet. I expect the Avengers to drop better than Thor this week and in its fourth weekend.

There is still no reason to doubt that the Avengers will continue to keep pace with the Dark Knight percentage wise for the next two weeks (especially with the holiday weekend in its fourth frame). That will be enough to push it to $600M, even if its has less than stellar holds in June. At this point I agree that a 3.36x multiplier for the Avengers is far fetched. That would give it a final tally of $695M. But I also think your $570M is lowballing things. The movie is going to pass $500M by the end of Memorial Day weekend.
Despite all of that you do agree that Avengers will not have TDK's legs and it will definitely be the most front loaded movie in the top 5 and top 10. And I did say 570M+ meaning that is the lowest I expect Avengers to do.
 

Mondriaan

Member
Despite all of that you do agree that Avengers will not have TDK's legs and it will definitely be the most front loaded movie in the top 5 and top 10. And I did say 570M+ meaning that is the lowest I expect Avengers to do.
Given The Avengers' performance in its opening weeks, the only way it could not be front loaded would be to surpass Avatar I think.
 

artist

Banned
Also smh @ the downplaying of Titanic's run compared to Avatar. Titanic's run will rape Avatar's run any day, any time ..
 
Despite all of that you do agree that Avengers will not have TDK's legs and it will definitely be the most front loaded movie in the top 5 and top 10. And I did say 570M+ meaning that is the lowest I expect Avengers to do.

Harry Potter DH2 says hello (that's WW #3)... That, and it's also tracking ahead of TDK, and will likely ease to being behind it, but not by too much. It's a bit of apples to oranges comparison for many of the top movies because Avatar and Titanic started modestly but had crazy legs, many of the movies were prior to the start of the monster opening weekend (which really took off with the original spiderman), and then you've also got animated movies that are famous for their multipliers.
 

border

Member
How hard is Dictator going to bomb? I can't see anything entertaining about the trailers and promos. You could taste desperation in the air when Cohen's character showed up on Saturday Night Live.

It feels like the project got greenlighted in 2004 (War or Terror, Iraq invasion) and just sat in the can for years.
 

Htown

STOP SHITTING ON MY MOTHER'S HEADSTONE
Ring me when an original IP from Whedon makes even a quarter of Inceptions WW gross, I'll be impressed then.

Um.

Inception happened AFTER Dark Knight and Batman Begins, not before. How much money did his pre-Batman movies make?

Yeah.

Don't act like Nolan is some historically visionary director and Whedon is garbage just because Inception did well. Nolan built his mass market name with two good blockbusters, THEN had a super successful new IP. If Serenity released after Avengers, it would have made a fuckton of money, too.
 

artist

Banned
How hard is Dictator going to bomb? I can't see anything entertaining about the trailers and promos. You could taste desperation in the air when Cohen's character showed up on Saturday Night Live.

It feels like the project got greenlighted in 2004 (War or Terror, Iraq invasion) and just sat in the can for years.
BOM's take;
BoxOfficeMojo said:
Bar for Success
Battleship is a big-budget action movie with a recognizable brand and a huge marketing campaign behind it, so it really ought to be earning at least $50 million in its opening weekend. What to Expect When You're Expecting and The Dictator are both in fine shape if they get to $25 million for their three-day and five-day weekends, respectively.
 
Um.

Inception happened AFTER Dark Knight and Batman Begins, not before. How much money did his pre-Batman movies make?

Yeah.

Don't act like Nolan is some historically visionary director and Whedon is garbage just because Inception did well. Nolan built his mass market name with two good blockbusters, THEN had a super successful new IP. If Serenity released after Avengers, it would have made a fuckton of money, too.

While I agree with your point, let's not pretend that's true.
 
Um.

Inception happened AFTER Dark Knight and Batman Begins, not before. How much money did his pre-Batman movies make?

Yeah.

Don't act like Nolan is some historically visionary director and Whedon is garbage just because Inception did well. Nolan built his mass market name with two good blockbusters, THEN had a super successful new IP. If Serenity released after Avengers, it would have made a fuckton of money, too.

Really? What's your basis for saying this? Do you think people are going to flock to theaters because his name is plastered on a poster?

Following this logic for a moment, his name is also attached to CiTW, why hasn't that seen a bump?
 

Mondriaan

Member
Really? What's your basis for saying this? Do you think people are going to flock to theaters because his name is plastered on a poster?

Following this logic for a moment, his name is also attached to CiTW, why hasn't that seen a bump?
It would have gotten a bump if the Avengers had instead gone to see this really great horror movie that Stark felt like recommending.
 
Um.

Inception happened AFTER Dark Knight and Batman Begins, not before. How much money did his pre-Batman movies make?

Yeah.

Don't act like Nolan is some historically visionary director and Whedon is garbage just because Inception did well. Nolan built his mass market name with two good blockbusters, THEN had a super successful new IP. If Serenity released after Avengers, it would have made a fuckton of money, too.


This is too easy

Movies he has directed

Following - budget 6,000 Gross 43,000

Memento - 5 million - 25.5 million

Insomnia - 46 million - 113.7 million

Batman Begins - 150 million - 371 million

Prestige - 40 million - 53 million

Dark Knight - 185 million - 541 million

Inception - 160 million - 293 million


Whedon

Serenity - budget 40 million - gross - 25 million

In every movie he made money . He built his name off memento and Insomnia . Learn some movie history
 
This is too easy

Movies he has directed

Following - budget 6,000 Gross 43,000

Memento - 5 million - 25.5 million

Insomnia - 46 million - 113.7 million

Batman Begins - 150 million - 371 million

Prestige - 40 million - 53 million

Dark Knight - 185 million - 541 million

Inception - 160 million - 293 million


Whedon

Serenity - budget 40 million - gross - 25 million

In every movie he made money . He built his name off memento and Insomnia . Learn some movie history
Yup.

Nolan built up his name over time and now he's an absolute powerhouse filmmaker; something I highly doubt Whedon will ever come close to being.
 
Still impresses. He took a virtually toxic movie franchise and managed to turn it around. Not many people can do that.

$371 million is the WW intake. I'm not sure why he's mixing domestic and WW grosses in his post. Also box office profits for the studio is a bit more complicated than domestic gross - production budget.
 
$371 million is the WW intake. I'm not sure why he's mixing domestic and WW grosses in his post. Also box office profits for the studio is a bit more complicated than domestic gross - production budget.

Yeah, domestic gross was 205m.

Still impressive after the shite that was Batman and Robin. Not many directors/writers would be able to pull it off.
 

Jasoneyu

Member
This thread is reminding me of the Gaming side. That's not a good thing.

Yeah i don't know where this director wars came from. At least on the console side there could be an argument that the success of one could be a complete determent or so that one side and more exclusitivey/games etc.

But with this nolan vs whedon stuff its just weird. You can enjoy both movies/directors without them being mutually exclusive.

For Whedon I love his sharp humor and interesting characters (grew up with buffy/angel). His take on a super hero movie is fun and imaginative sticking more with the lore of comic books in general.

While Nolan provides a more serious and provocative concepts (in memento/inception etc.) and more serious comic book movie in his films.

Both will make a killing in the box office and I'll enjoy both as writer/directors.
 
cmbadv25.jpg

Why are you still dealing with Bob? Shame on you.
 

sharbhund

Member
This is too easy

Movies he has directed

Following - budget 6,000 Gross 43,000

Memento - 5 million - 25.5 million

Insomnia - 46 million - 113.7 million

Batman Begins - 150 million - 371 million

Prestige - 40 million - 53 million

Dark Knight - 185 million - 541 million

Inception - 160 million - 293 million


Whedon

Serenity - budget 40 million - gross - 25 million

In every movie he made money . He built his name off memento and Insomnia . Learn some movie history

It makes me sad that Insomnia grossed more than twice what The Prestige brought in.

Edit: Never mind, just realized he's mixing domestic and WW totals. The Prestige is roughly equal to Insomnia in total gross, which is still wrong.
 

Cipherr

Member
Yeah i don't know where this director wars came from.

There were always Cameron fanboys. A few Nolan fanboys after Memento and mainly Batman. But the whole director war stemmed from Whedon making a great movie here that stands with some of the greatest of all time in terms of gross. A lot folks are salty as hell about that for some reason. Its sort of odd too. I can't understand the hate, its not like Whedon is some super well known director, especially for movies. Who the hell scours low rated TV series to find directors to hate on?

SMH. Haters gonna hate I guess.
 
Yeah i don't know where this director wars came from. At least on the console side there could be an argument that the success of one could be a complete determent or so that one side and more exclusitivey/games etc.

But with this nolan vs whedon stuff its just weird. You can enjoy both movies/directors without them being mutually exclusive.

For Whedon I love his sharp humor and interesting characters (grew up with buffy/angel). His take on a super hero movie is fun and imaginative sticking more with the lore of comic books in general.

While Nolan provides a more serious and provocative concepts (in memento/inception etc.) and more serious comic book movie in his films.

Both will make a killing in the box office and I'll enjoy both as writer/directors.

I'm genuinely looking forward to what Whedon does next, if only to see if the success from TA rubs off/how much freedom he's given to work on a new movie.
 
It seems weird that there are still people who are interested in seeing Avengers that haven't already seen it at this point, but I think everything I've predicted about Avengers has been wrong, so, who knows?

The most interesting thing about the Avengers run is trying to gage how big the market is for superhero movies. There's really no way to know until Avengers' run is over.

I was justified in downplaying its potential success before it released. I was proven wrong and accepted as much. A non issue.

Actual success. I've conceded it's doing well, I'm commenting on the easons for that success. Opened in more screens, retaining most of those screens for nearly 3 weeks after release, 3d tax, no competition.

Bringing these up isn't downplaying its success, it's commenting on why it's doing so well.

The one factor you keep neglecting is that audiences were thoroughly satisfied. Audience satisfaction is the lynch pin of this movie's success. Without it, all its other advantages would be meaningless. Brilliantly marketed films can bomb when the audience isn't happy. Just look at Batman and Robin.
 
There were always Cameron fanboys. A few Nolan fanboys after Memento and mainly Batman. But the whole director war stemmed from Whedon making a great movie here that stands with some of the greatest of all time in terms of gross. A lot folks are salty as hell about that for some reason. Its sort of odd too. I can't understand the hate, its not like Whedon is some super well known director, especially for movies. Who the hell scours low rated TV series to find directors to hate on?

SMH. Haters gonna hate I guess.
If you're a nerd than you've heard other nerds champion on and on about how great Whedon's work is, no one is scouring TV to find directors to hate on.

I've actually gotten into arguments about Whedon In real life.
 

artist

Banned
$371 million is the WW intake. I'm not sure why he's mixing domestic and WW grosses in his post. Also box office profits for the studio is a bit more complicated than domestic gross - production budget.
Regardless of the WW take, its domestic take of 200M+ was impressive, especially coming off a toxic previous movie from the same franchise. BB had the best legs for a comic book movie released in the past 20+ years even beating out SM1. And then it made close to 200M more in disc sales + rentals. It was one of the key reasons why TDK did so well.

There were always Cameron fanboys. A few Nolan fanboys after Memento and mainly Batman. But the whole director war stemmed from Whedon making a great movie here that stands with some of the greatest of all time in terms of gross. A lot folks are salty as hell about that for some reason. Its sort of odd too. I can't understand the hate, its not like Whedon is some super well known director, especially for movies. Who the hell scours low rated TV series to find directors to hate on?

SMH. Haters gonna hate I guess.
I said this before but Whedon broke into my top 10 directors because of Avengers and Cabin. The guy has a knack for writing funny and witty screenplay and can bring the movie's plot together in a decent way, plus his take on action is pretty good too. The Helicarier sequence reminded me of Avatar's final big airship battle, that is the biggest compliment I can give to Whedon.
 
Nikki's wayyy to early projections (she continues to update through the night):

Nikki said:
FRIDAY 12:45 PM: What a disaster at the North American box office this early summer weekend with everything from today and a week ago tanking except for Marvel’s The Avengers which should make another $53M. Universal’s Battleship is stuck at $9M-$11M today and $30M (which is around the same meager amount where Warner Bros’ Dark Shadows debuted last weekend and is on life support now). Parament’s The Dictator which opened weakly Wednesday is completely falling apart even for an ‘R’ rated movie with just $12M. And Lionsgate’s What To Expect When You’re Expecting is beating it with $15M. Hollywood is in a very dark mood today — and I’m finding that the movie moguls are not appreciating my humor when I ask, “Are your bags packed?”
 

artist

Banned
Slightly higher estimates from HR;

Battleship - 32-34M
What to Expect When You’re Expecting - 13-14M
The Dictator - 13-14M
 

kswiston

Member
Regardless of the WW take, its domestic take of 200M+ was impressive, especially coming off a toxic previous movie from the same franchise. BB had the best legs for a comic book movie released in the past 20+ years even beating out SM1. And then it made close to 200M more in disc sales + rentals. It was one of the key reasons why TDK did so well.

Batman Begins had good legs, but its opening weekend multiplier seems better than actually was because the movie opened on a Wednesday. The 5 day opening was $73M, which was over a third of its domestic total. If you simply look at the first weekend take, than Twilight: Eclipse had amazing legs (300M is almost 4.7x its three day opening weekend of 64M).
 
Last night's update/estimates from Nikki:

Nikki said:
1. Marvel’s The Avengers (Disney) Week 3 [4,349 Runs] PG13
Friday $15.5M, Weekend $52.5M, Cume $454.5M

2. Battleship (Universal) NEW [3,690 Runs] PG13
Friday $9.5M, Weekend $26M

3. The Dictator (Paramount) NEW-Wed [3,008 Runs] R
Friday $5.5M, Weekend $16.0M, Cume $23.0M

4. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsgate) NEW [3,021 Runs] PG13
Friday $4.4M, Weekend $12.0M

5. Dark Shadows (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,755 Runs] PG13
Friday $3.7M (-61%), Weekend $11.5M, Cume $49.6M

6. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 9 [2,064 Runs]
Friday $850K, Weekend $2.4M, Cume $391.0M

7. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight) Week 3 [354 Runs] PG13
Friday $800K, Weekend $3M, Cume $8.7M

8. Think Like A Man (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 5 [1,722 Runs] PG13
Friday $800K, Weekend $2.4M, Cume $85.6M

9. The Lucky One (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,055 Runs] PG13
Friday $650K, Weekend $1.8M, Cume $57.0M

10. Pirates! Band Of Misfits (Aardman/Sony) Week 4 [1,840 Runs] PG
Friday $450K, Weekend $1.4M, Cume $25.7M
 

Kusagari

Member
Battleship not even making 30m OW would be a disaster of epic proportions. What to Expect is mega bombing as well. And I see Dark Shadows absolutely collapsed

Not a good weekend at all for movie companies. Only Avengers is doing good.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom