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Wkd Box Office Est. 05•18-20 •12 Avengers sinks the Battleship & drowns The Dictator

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planar1280

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http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_numbers/studio_estimate/2012-05-20

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*Aborted*

THIS WEEKEND The band of shawarma-eating Marvel super heroes will take on incoming fire from movies based on a board game, a pregnancy book, and real-life tyrants. Yes, Hollywood can turn any idea into a movie. New releases trying to compete in an Avengers-dominated world are the action film Battleship and the comedy What To Expect When You're Expecting which both open Friday along with the Sacha Baron Cohen pic The Dictator which got an early jump on the weekend fun debuting on Wednesday.

For those already spending time and money on Robert Downey Jr.'s high-brow action extravaganza, a dose of mindless popcorn fun comes in the form of Battleship. Universal's big-budget naval action thriller is high on artillery and should play to those who don't need much story or famous stars and just like to watch stuff get blown up. The PG-13 film stars Taylor Kitsch trying to bounce back after anchoring the megaflop John Carter along with Liam Neeson, pop singer Rihanna, and Brooklyn Decker. Outside of the Taken star who doesn't have much screen-time, there are no proven box office draws in the cast. But the fact that there are no expensive 3D surcharges could help matters.

So that leaves the heavy lifting to the action sequences, special effects, and stunts. Battleship's marketing campaign has been active for months and audiences have been expecting a Transformers-at-sea flick for some time now. And that's what they will get. Avengers is obviously the bigger action option right now but a more low-brow male action crowd should take interest in Battleship given what is promised up on the big screen. And with the second weekend being a holiday frame - Memorial Day works well with this film theme-wise - look for a strong 11-day start before the numbers fade away to low levels.

Universal opened Battleship overseas two weeks before Avengers in a tactical move to collect what cash it could before a more superior title entered the marketplace to blow it out of the water. It's done a respectable $215M+ overseas although the final global tally will probably end at a mark that will be disappointing for such a costly investment of $200M+ for production alone. Domestically, Battleship launches in over 3,750 theaters on Friday and might gross about $42M over the weekend.

Sacha Baron Cohen returns with a new slice of his brand of bold, raunchy humor with The Dictator playing an eccentric Qaddafi-like ruler of a fictitious North African country who comes to the U.S. to address world leaders at the United Nations. The R-rated pic should play to his fan base which grew exponentially bigger after 2006's smash hit Borat only to shrink after 2009's Brüno which repelled audiences. That experience will hurt the $65M-budgeted Dictator as many who got burned will take a pass this time or at least wait until they get recommendations from numerous friends before buying a ticket.

Paramount and Cohen have been out there pimping their product in many out-of-the-box ways. The comedian's stunt at the Oscars got some attention and his numerous talk show appearances in character have risen awareness even though the humor has started to become tired already. Reviews have been fairly good and males should outnumber females. The political humor will make the audience more narrow as the comedy is not broad enough to appeal to a huge summer crowd. Word-of-mouth looks iffy down the road as opening day audiences on Wednesday gave a troubling C grade from CinemaScore. Now playing in 3,003 sites, The Dictator may premiere with around $16M over the weekend and $23M over five days.

Cameron Diaz, Jennifer Lopez, Elizabeth Banks, Chris Rock, Dennis Quaid, and Brooklyn Decker (in her second movie opening Friday) star in the pregnancy comedy What to Expect When You're Expecting based on the best-selling self-help book. The PG-13 film combines a powerful brand with a collection of big-name stars that should work well in attracting the target audience of adult women. Lionsgate's comedy offering is sprinkled with cast members that fall into many diverse categories across race, gender, and age so appeal could be broad. But Expect should skew heavily female given the subject matter and the fact that males have two huge action titles to go and see right now, plus a raunchy new political comedy.

These star-packed ensemble chick flicks can score big bucks as seen previously by Valentine's Day and He's Just Not That Into You. However, last December's New Year's Eve which debuted to a weak $3,714 average proved that audiences will also stay away when not interested. Reviews have been mixed for What to Expect which will not help matters since it's aimed at a more mature crowd that listens to critics. Trailers have done a good job trying to make the humor more broad in order to get in couples. The main competition this weekend will come from Johnny Depp's Dark Shadows which played to the same target demo. Opening Friday in 3,021 locations What to Expect When You're Expecting might debut with roughly $16M.

Only two holdovers will make a dent in the box office this weekend. Still set to reign supreme is the Disney smash The Avengers which should break $400M in record time (probably Thursday night) as it goes into its third domestic weekend. Battleship will certainly take away some of the male action crowd and the frame's other two newcomers will have an impact too, though smaller. But moviegoers have been very satisfied with the Marvel squad so a 40% drop might be in order. That would put The Avengers at about $60M for the frame and a sizzling $462M in 17 days. The global haul will approach $1.2 billion by Sunday rising to number four on the all-time worldwide list.

Johnny Depp's expensive vampire project Dark Shadows had a less than spectacular opening last weekend given its cost and starpower. Audiences have not been giving high marks so word-of-mouth will not take it much farther. Plus its adult female audience will see direct competition from What to Expect so a sizable 55% decline could result. That would put the Warner Bros. release at roughly $13M for the weekend and $51M after ten days.
Click to expand...

http://boxofficeguru.com/051612.htm
 
J

JB1981

Member
Battleship bomba. You guys think Avengers will reach 600 million domestic? Looks like it might be tough, no?

also: thank god Prometheus is releasing when the Avengers mania will have died off a bit or it might have been another victim
 
M

Manmademan

Member
LOL @ battleship. "Dictator" is low budget enough that it will probably be fine.

I had a copy of "bruno" I got on sale and watched the other day (because "the dictator" reminded me i owned it) and holy hell that thing's unwatchable. Article isn't kidding.
 
M

M.D

Member
Battleship had it's OS run and with that OW in the US, it looks like it will make less than John Carter WW

BobTheFork said:
What was the budget on Battleship?
Click to expand...

Official number? Box Office Mojo says 209 million, but it's probably higher than that... and it's probably way higher when you count the marketing spent on it

jakncoke said:
Battleship doing horrible is amazing, shame it's foreign numbers aren't bad though.
Click to expand...

It made 215 million and probably won't get much more than that. That's pretty horrible for a big blockbuster sci-fi movie, especially with that budget.

Is it me or these threads are more fun than NPD threads now? :p
 
S

Skel1ingt0n

I can't *believe* these lazy developers keep making file sizes so damn large. Btw, how does technology work?
WtEWYE also had a terrible OW.

Lol @ Taylor Kitcsh's (sp?) career. I expect to see him in low budget made-for-TV films in the next couple years. That said, it's actually kind of unfair. While he wasn't necessarily good in John Carter, that film didn't fail because of him. And neither did BS, I imagine.
 
R

Ripclawe

Banned
Word-of-mouth looks iffy down the road as opening day audiences on Wednesday gave a troubling C grade from CinemaScore
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dictator getting a C is basically an F. it will drop badly next week
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Skel1ingt0n said:
WtEWYE also had a terrible OW.

Lol @ Taylor Kitcsh's (sp?) career. I expect to see him in low budget made-for-TV films in the next couple years. That said, it's actually kind of unfair. While he wasn't necessarily good in John Carter, that film didn't fail because of him. And neither did BS, I imagine.
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nah. I saw John Carter and he was decent in it- I wouldn't say his performance was standout or anything but he's not a bad actor, and was convincing in his action scenes.

He just had incredibly bad luck picking films that SHOULD have been blockbusters, but were handled poorly.

Oddly enough, one of the criticisms of Battleship is that it has no A-list actors. The only draw is seeing boats explode. If the John Carter marketing hadn't been such a colossal screwup and the movie hadn't bombed, perhaps kitsch himself would have been a bigger draw and gotten more asses in seats.
 
P

planar1280

Banned
Manmademan said:
nah. I saw John Carter and he was decent in it- I wouldn't say his performance was standout or anything but he's not a bad actor, and was convincing in his action scenes.

He just had incredibly bad luck picking films that SHOULD have been blockbusters, but were handled poorly.

Oddly enough, one of the criticisms of Battleship is that it has no A-list actors. The only draw is seeing boats explode. If the John Carter marketing hadn't been such a colossal screwup and the movie hadn't bombed, perhaps kitsch himself would have been a bigger draw and gotten more asses in seats.
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Most likely he will fire his agent now
 
J

James Woods

Banned
Fuck off Taylor Kitsch. I got sick of hearing about your ass years ago when you were on that shit show with the putz from Early Edition.
 
J

jakncoke

Banned
M.D said:
Battleship had it's OS run and with that OW in the US, it looks like it will make less than John Carter WW



Official number? Box Office Mojo says 209 million, but it's probably higher than that... and it's probably way higher when you count the marketing spent on it



It made 215 million and probably won't get much more than that. That's pretty horrible for a big blockbuster sci-fi movie, especially with that budget.

Is it me or these threads are more fun than NPD threads now? :P
Click to expand...

Only cause numbers are involved now lol
 
P

planar1280

Banned
Kitsch Career is following a v similar path to Colin Farell, People thought he would be big and now he has a failing career
 
T

The Abominable Snowman

Member
Any new records broken by the Avengers this weekend? Is it still collecting Avatar's old record-breaker titles?

Do the guys in the other thread still think Avengers will top out in the $500m's?
 
J

JdFoX187

Banned
XiaNaphryz said:
What's most amusing is that Battleship has a post-credit scene that implies a sequel.
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I really wish studios would quit doing this. I thought John Carter handled the open-ended sequel-bait potential well, but too many movies end on a blatant cliffhanger or have a post-credit scene that "guarantees" another and it never comes. Quit worrying about setting up a franchise and make sure your first movie succeeds before you start worrying about getting another out there.
 
K

kswiston

Member
Dark Shadows lost its shot at $100M with that drop.

Avengers will take the Domestic comic book crown in two weekends. Should be at around $520M by the end of the 4-day Memorial Day Weekend.


The Abominable Snowman said:
Any new records broken by the Avengers this weekend? Is it still collecting Avatar's old record-breaker titles?
Click to expand...


It killed the fastest to $450M record. The Dark Knight held that record previously, taking 27 days to reach $450M. The Avengers hit $450M in 17 days.
 
megamerican

megamerican

Member
That's a pretty solid start for the Dictator. Given its low budget, international power, and probable strong aftermarket sales, it will likely be very profitable.

Glad to see Battleship flop. I have to say that while I'm not schadenfreude about Kitsch's disastrous year, he does seem to lack star charisma.
 
M

M.D

Member
megamerican said:
That's a pretty solid start for the Dictator. Given its low budget, international power, and probable strong aftermarket sales, it will likely be very profitable.

Glad to see Battleship flop. I have to say that while I'm not schadenfreude about Kitsch's disastrous year, he does seem to lack star charisma.
Click to expand...

Small budget? BOM says 65 million.. that's not huge, but with marketing, it's not really small budget
 
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