I dunno, I could see LFR having a bit of an impact on subs, the gear from it in HM/BRF looks like utter garbage, not really a compelling reason to go out there and complete a whole set.
Of course, that is not how that guy in that thread sees it. I believe he may be out of touch with reality if he thinks LFR is the reason subs are down so much.
I think the initial reaction that LFR keeps people around makes sense at first, but if you really think about it and what LFR does for the vast majority of players, I don't know that it does.
Being able to run the entire raid and kill the last boss in a day doesn't really seem to keep people around. I personally get the same sense of 'completion' from LFR as I do from Normal/Heroic.
I did a little bit of raiding with a guild in MoP and a little with LFR, and unless I looked at my armory page, I couldn't tell you which I killed in LFR and which I killed in a "regular" raid. To me, they are the same. In WotLK, I would go through that annoyance of finding a guild of people I could get along with, go to their raids with their rules, and wait week after week to progress with them through people leaving and drama and whatnot, so eventually I would kill Malygos or Yogg+0.
I don't know that I would catagorize myself as a casual player, but I'm definitely not a mythic raider or even WANT to be one. My options in my mind are:
-Go through the headache of finding a guild, getting a raid spot, progressing, wiping, spending gold on pots/flasks/food, waiting around for people who don't show up that night, finding pugs.
-Just queue up LFR and kill blackhand in like 20 minutes. The gear isn't the same and the rewards aren't the same, but I can also just wait a little while until I'm level 110 or something solo-farm the gear and mount like I do with ICC and Al'Akir every week.
This is all just me and my anecdotal evidence obviously, but it doesn't seem that far off when you make the game "completable" (albeit in a super easy way) when someone is done, they unsubscribe. When you have to invest time in a guild and get to know them, play with them and share loot with them, it takes a lot longer to beat a raid than a 40 minute queue and facerolling the bosses. Even if you don't get to that point in the game where you are in a guild and raid-ready, it's still a far off goal and something left to do in the game, it's a carrot on the end of a longer stick.
When you see stuff like the majority of players don't get past level 10, is it really surprising that the majority of players may level up, queue for LFR, complete it and then unsub? I also tend to go with MMO-Champ being the opposite of reality, they usually have it completely backwards.