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I have no idea where you got 15.46M. US June 2025 LTD is nearly 17M. End of 2024 was ~16.3M

So the thing is, different analytic firms have different XBS sell through estimates which muddy things. Omdia had XBS end of 2024 at 32.5M. IDG has it somewhere around 34M. My end of 2024 shipment estimate was <36M. ~37M is my June 2025 estimate. I only care to estimate shipments but seeing what the US sold through this year alone (~700K), worldwide sell through is probably ~1.3M in 2025. Going off that IDG figure, XBS sell through would be somewhere in the 35M's right now. A 37M shipment estimate would not be immediately inaccurate as that's within 2M unsold units, 2M or more being typical for consoles. If you take Omdia's figure then XBS is nearly 34M, making ~37M practically impossible.

demigod linked a topic with an older video of yours, I noticed this is a video you made a couple of weeks after.




Assuming this is with the data from IDG and whatnot ?

 

[Kacho]

All you guys arguing Xbox S/X sales +/- a couple million units based on guesstimates and different data on different sites to feel better about yourselves. LOL

Under 30 million would be extremely disastrous though. The way Series consoles are selling now it probably wouldn't hit the 30 million mark. Thats a big story if true.

 

[mckmas8808]

Thanks for showing up in the thread, Welfare . You're one of the presences I miss at GAF, post-exodus. Apologies for the bonehead lol's. You deserve more respect than that.

I don't expect you'll be hanging around, given the piling-on, but I do appreciate the drop-in. Cheers.

Yeah I don't like the piling on either. Even if I disagree with his numbers on Xbox here. His methodology is mostly solid and he puts in the work to give us a overall grasp of how the "BUSINESS" of gaming is doing world-wide. So, I respect that. People can agree to disagree on somethings. But we don't have to be assholes.

 

[leo-j]

Under 30 million would be extremely disastrous though. The way Series consoles are selling now it probably wouldn't hit the 30 million mark. Thats a big story if true.

Microsoft knows this, hence why they are on PS and soon nintendo. The console market for them is shrinking.... going from 55-60 million to MAYBE 40 million is a disaster when nintendo is at 150 million and sony is going to be over 100 million again.

 

[Welfare]

demigod linked a topic with an older video of yours, I noticed this is a video you made a couple of weeks after.




Assuming this is with the data from IDG and whatnot ?

That video was made before IDG's recent ~107M estimate, but the sell through estimates didn't inform any of my estimates for shipments. If I did that, I would not have gotten XB1 up to 57M before ~58M was confirmed. Basically every public sell through estimate for XB1 turned out to be hot ass after from 2016 on.

 

[Steve Holt]

After the BioShock news and their recent spree of game cancellations and studio closures. Despite being one of the most valuable and profitable companies in the world. Maybe these guys don't deserve to be in the games industry.

Their innovations such as GamePass hasn't helped the industry. Arguably harmed it.

 

[Humdinger]

Yeah I don't like the piling on either. Even if I disagree with his numbers on Xbox here. His methodology is mostly solid and he puts in the work to give us a overall grasp of how the "BUSINESS" of gaming is doing world-wide. So, I respect that. People can agree to disagree on somethings. But we don't have to be assholes.

Exactly.

I also don't like the transparent partisanship. People love to hear negative Xbox news here and will tear down anything that remotely resembles good news on that "side" (although I'm not clear how 37 m. is good news, really.) I say that as a PS-only owner, not an Xbox fan. And I'm not claiming to be "above" that, either. I find stories about Xbox stepping on rakes very entertaining. But it seems to me that this is where most of the piling-on and assholery originates. If someone was allegedly overestimating PS5 sales, I doubt they would face a similar backlash. That sort of reaction is fine in the context of normal console warrior topics but seems misplaced here.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

I mean, except for yourself, vast majority of people would not pay $600 for XSX when they could get a PS5 between $450 and $500.

Well that's an interesting point. I would say that the vast majority of anyone who's bought a Series X paid the exact same price as they would have for a PS5, so I'm not sure what your point is. The price increase (which Sony has also done in many territories all over the world since the generation started) was very recent and likely hasn't made a dent. I mean it was like not even 2 months ago?

Let's not pretend it's like profoundly changed the trajectory of sales. I mean if you're gonna buy a console you're gonna buy a console. Series X and PS5 were the same price for nearly 5 years.

 

[StereoVsn]

Well that's an interesting point. I would say that the vast majority of anyone who's bought a Series X paid the exact same price as they would have for a PS5, so I'm not sure what your point is. The price increase (which Sony has also done in many territories all over the world since the generation started) was very recent and likely hasn't made a dent.

The conversation was about Xbox raising prices and who the heck would buy it at that price.

So… when replies are "I would", the reality is that most buyers would not buy an Xbox for $100 more than equivalent PS5.

 

[Topher]

Exactly.

I also don't like the transparent partisanship. People love to hear negative Xbox news here and will tear down anything that remotely resembles good news on that "side" (although I'm not clear how 37 m. is good news, really.) I say that as a PS-only owner, not an Xbox fan. And I'm not claiming to be "above" that, either. I find stories about Xbox stepping on rakes very entertaining. But it seems to me that this is where most of the piling-on and assholery originates. If someone was allegedly overestimating PS5 sales, I doubt they would face a similar backlash. That sort of reaction is fine in the context of normal console warrior topics but seems misplaced here.

They would though. From the same people applying the backlash in the PS to Xbox ports threads. Or in the threads where PS raised prices. Or the folks saying Sony manufacturered PS2 sales out of thin air. There is plenty of backlash to go around here on GAF and Sony/PlayStation are not immune.

 

[Dr. Wilkinson]

The conversation was about Xbox raising prices and who the heck would buy it at that price.

So… when replies are "I would", the reality is that most buyers would not buy an Xbox for $100 more than equivalent PS5.

It's just such an irrelevant question. Hardly anyone is buying one now, anyway. It was closer to even in the US at launch, but as Xbox output has slowed/ worsened/ whatever you choose to put there as a reason, the gap is so wide now that the generation is lost. Sony won. Theres no argument possible for the other way around. Hence the pivot to third-party ports and de-emphasis of in-house hardware. I don't understand why this is even an interesting argument to be had anymore.

Probably why it wasn't a hard choice for them to raise the price in the US to accommodate tariffs. It's not like many people are buying one, anyway.

Let's just not pretend for a second though that Sony isn't likely on the cusp of also raising price in the US as well, though. Nintendo just raised prices again today. Second time in 2 months. Only a matter of time.

 

[Steve Holt]

Xbox: 24M
Xbox 360: 84M
Xbox One: 58M
Xbox Series: 37M

Can only attribute that to one person.

 

[AREYOUOKAY?]

I mean, except for yourself, vast majority of people would not pay $600 for XSX when they could get a PS5 between $450 and $500.

You're right I wouldn't.

Subtotal

$559.99
$349.00

Good thing I got it in 2023 because who knows when the next sale like that would even be.

I did buy a PS5 from a GAFFER for $500 but it included a ton of extra stuff with it.

 

[Humdinger]

They would though. From the same people applying the backlash in the PS to Xbox ports threads. Or in the threads where PS raised prices. Or the folks saying Sony manufacturered PS2 sales out of thin air. There is plenty of backlash to go around here on GAF and Sony/PlayStation are not immune.

I'm not saying Sony doesn't get flak. I'm saying that someone presenting figures that were allegedly slightly skewed in favor of Sony - presenting those figures in apparent good faith, with a history and rigor behind them (vs. sheer fanboying) - would not face this sort of backlash on GAF. No, Sony is not immune to criticism. But I'm not going to pretend that it's even close to a fair balance.

 

[Mr Moose]

I'm not saying Sony doesn't get flak. I'm saying that someone presenting figures that were allegedly slightly skewed in favor of Sony - presenting those figures in apparent good faith, with a history and rigor behind them (vs. sheer fanboying) - would not face this sort of backlash on GAF. No, Sony is not immune to criticism. But I'm not going to pretend that it's even close to a fair balance.

Two of them provide numbers so we don't need guesstimates. MS should provide numbers as well.
There's nothing wrong with guesstimates, they can come in handy when trying to figure out splits in different countries (mainly US), but if people try to present them as fact then that becomes a problem.
Sony get a lot of shit, especially for their GaaShite and their potential release of games on Xbox (I think mostly only Xbox guys were happy with this, saying how not having "exclusives" is a good thing, pro consumer bullshit. It isn't, it devalues the console just like it did with Xbox).
(I'm not saying Welfare is presenting this number as a fact, but some in here are taking it that way).

 

[GHG]

If someone was allegedly overestimating PS5 sales, I doubt they would face a similar backlash.

Given the information at hand, I think you'd find the conversation would go exactly the same way.

When we have someone here who has direct access to AMD's data/information and you have their financial/stock market reports stating the same thing this is about facts, not feelings.

 

[AREYOUOKAY?]

Can't really do much with their basically gone presence in retail stores like Gamestop, Target, Walmart, Best Buy.

When the only physical games you have in stock is basically Outriders and Redfall sitting on shelves after all these years since they don't get any new game releases in stock you know things are bad.

 

[yazenov]

US has been ~50:50 for XBS since launch. Only recently has that probably been bumped to ~55%.

The +21M is sold through, Ampere had XBS sell through at +21M end of March 2023. Even then, just the US bringing up the XBS data up to and beyond 25M should be enough to debunk the whole "100M only" thing.

A little under 17M as of June 2025.

37 million XBS sold and 17 million of them sold in the US? So 46% of the total unit sold are in the US and the remaining 54% outside of the US where the console is basically dead? Zero chances of this being the reality. I call bullshit.

 

[PropellerEar]

Close to 3:1

 

[Topher]

I'm not saying Sony doesn't get flak. I'm saying that someone presenting figures that were allegedly slightly skewed in favor of Sony - presenting those figures in apparent good faith, with a history and rigor behind them (vs. sheer fanboying) - would not face this sort of backlash on GAF. No, Sony is not immune to criticism. But I'm not going to pretend that it's even close to a fair balance.

Backlash? It is a debate. Nothing more.

 

[mckmas8808]

Well that's an interesting point. I would say that the vast majority of anyone who's bought a Series X paid the exact same price as they would have for a PS5, so I'm not sure what your point is. The price increase (which Sony has also done in many territories all over the world since the generation started) was very recent and likely hasn't made a dent. I mean it was like not even 2 months ago?

Let's not pretend it's like profoundly changed the trajectory of sales. I mean if you're gonna buy a console you're gonna buy a console. Series X and PS5 were the same price for nearly 5 years.

The Xbox Series sales have been cut in half in America after the price increase. An immediate 50% drop in sales is a profound change in sales.

 

[mckmas8808]

It's just such an irrelevant question. Hardly anyone is buying one now, anyway. It was closer to even in the US at launch, but as Xbox output has slowed/ worsened/ whatever you choose to put there as a reason, the gap is so wide now that the generation is lost. Sony won. Theres no argument possible for the other way around. Hence the pivot to third-party ports and de-emphasis of in-house hardware. I don't understand why this is even an interesting argument to be had anymore.

Probably why it wasn't a hard choice for them to raise the price in the US to accommodate tariffs. It's not like many people are buying one, anyway.

Let's just not pretend for a second though that Sony isn't likely on the cusp of also raising price in the US as well, though. Nintendo just raised prices again today. Second time in 2 months. Only a matter of time.

What or when was the first Nintendo price increase?

 

[Moonjt9]

Xbox is selling like 100k per month and dropping fast. They'll never reach 40 mil. With how well gamepass seems to be going, I will be shocked if they make a bespoke console next gen.

I think the whole Xbox rog ally thing is the first step and sign that this is their new strategy going forward. Will see Xbox branded pcs next gen, not an actual Xbox console.

 

[Humdinger]

Backlash? It is a debate. Nothing more.

I'm referring to the piling on and ridicule via lol's. It's uncalled for and wouldn't happen were the situation reversed.

Given the information at hand, I think you'd find the conversation would go exactly the same way.

I doubt that very much.

 

[Three]

Xbox is selling like 100k per month and dropping fast. They'll never reach 40 mil. With how well gamepass seems to be going, I will be shocked if they make a bespoke console next gen.

I think the whole Xbox rog ally thing is the first step and sign that this is their new strategy going forward. Will see Xbox branded pcs next gen, not an actual Xbox console.

Nah, they have ABK to fund any disasters now. They already have a bespoke console leaked from AMD. I suspect they will try to launch with some exclusive sequels for a period (FH6 probably) and if there is no meaningful shift go back to their aspirations of being a day and date third party publisher on PS again.

 

[Topher]

I'm referring to the piling on and ridicule via lol's. It's uncalled for and wouldn't happen were the situation reversed.

Nah....I think it has been a good debate. I'll agree to disagree.

Edit: Am I being ridiculed via lol?

Spoiler

 

[Humdinger]

Nah....I think it has been a good debate. I'll agree to disagree.

Fine with me.

 

[mckmas8808]

Nah, they have ABK to fund any disasters now. They already have a bespoke console leaked from AMD. I suspect they will try to launch with some exclusive sequels for a period (FH6 probably) and if there is no meaningful shift go back to their aspirations of being a day and date third party publisher on PS again.

Exclusive.... Like Xbox only? Or when the game come out on Xbox Series and Xbox 720 type of exclusive?

 

[Three]

Exclusive.... Like Xbox only? Or when the game come out on Xbox Series and Xbox 720 type of exclusive?

Some Xbox 720 and PC timed exclusives is my guess (likely Series X crossgen too but they might just end up getting them to stream on gamepass for incompatible games, no idea there). It will likely be short periods of exclusivity like Indiana Jones.

 

[GHG]

I doubt that very much. If you could point me to a similar situation in reverse -i.e., someone of Welfare's "stature," so to speak (his history, rigor, reputation) stating something that (allegedly) slightly exaggerates Sony sales figures - and who is then met with the same sort of lol's and pile-on we had here, I'll be happy to reconsider. But to me, the partisanship is an obvious factor. (Again, I say that as a PS guy, not Xbox).

You're asking the wrong guy, I'll gladly challenge anyone regardless of the "stature" of the individual being questioned, or subject matter in the scenario where what's being purported is factually or contextually incorrect. That's always been the case and you'll find plenty of examples of me doing so here - discussion with Justin Davis of IGN when he decided to try and defend one of his staff members for a dishonest review.

Which leads me to ask, what's with all the glazing? The guy is just as fallible as every other person on this planet. The difference is how he's deciding to handle it. If he's actually interested in accurate reporting/analysis then this is a scenario where he should be open to his claims and assumptions being challenged if it leads to an outcome where his data ends up being more factually correct.

AMD have been lumping the Steam Deck in with the other consoles for reporting purposes since 2022 (Lisa Su herself outlined this):

Su said that AMD's semi-custom business grew by "double-digits" on a year-over-year basis due to consumer demand for the Playstation 5, Xbox One, and Valve's Steam Deck.

"Sales for this game console generation continue to outpace all prior generations, and we expect 2022 to be a record year for our semi-custom business," Su said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/03/amd-earnings-q1-2022.html

Based on the fact that we have K KeplerL2 challenging it, AMD's own latest 10k filing clearly outlining how they categosie things and Lisa Su herself also previously stating as much back in 2022, this represents an appropriate jump off point for him to do further investigation, but yet instead he's decided to stubbornly dig his heels in and bury his head in the sand.

If this is the hill he wishes to unceremoniously die on, then so be it.

 

[Heisenberg007]

So both the basis of this guesstimate are incorrect?

• If we go by Xbox hardware revenue >> this data would be incorrect because that also includes Xbox controllers, SSD expansions, etc. and this guesstimate didn't account for that.
• If we go by AMD's SCBU numbers >> this data is incorrect because it didn't account for Steam Deck (and PS5 Pro?).

Taking into account the missing variables, I think we will land at less than 30M - which is something that Kepler also said.

 

[thismeinteil]

You're asking the wrong guy, I'll gladly challenge anyone regardless of the "stature" of the individual being questioned, or subject matter in the scenario where what's being purported is factually or contextually incorrect. That's always been the case and you'll find plenty of examples of me doing so here - discussion with Justin Davis of IGN when he decided to try and defend one of his staff members for a dishonest review.

Which leads me to ask, what's with all the glazing? The guy is just as fallible as every other person on this planet. The difference is how he's deciding to handle it. If he's actually interested in accurate reporting/analysis then this is a scenario where he should be open to his claims and assumptions being challenged if it leads to an outcome where his data ends up being more factually correct.

AMD have been lumping the Steam Deck in with the other consoles for reporting purposes since 2022 (Lisa Su herself outlined this):

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/03/amd-earnings-q1-2022.html

Based on the fact that we have K KeplerL2 challenging it, AMD's own latest 10k filing clearly outlining how they categosie things and Lisa Su herself also previously stating as much back in 2022, this represents an appropriate jump off point for him to do further investigation, but yet instead he's decided to stubbornly dig his heels in and bury his head in the sand.

If this is the hill he wishes to unceremoniously die on, then so be it.

He also said the US has been 50:50 for Xbox, and has actually moved to 55:45 recently. He said Xbox is approaching 17M in the US according to his estimates. So if we use 16.8M for the US and the 50:50 ratio, that's only 33.6M. Where's the extra 3.4M coming from?

 

[yazenov]

Props to the guy for at least coming here and explaining his "estimates".

Say what you will about the accuracy of his estimates, but I'll give him credit where it's due. Respect for engaging and discussion with people who disagrees with him outside of the eco chamber. Unlike many others running away to blue sky and blocking everyone that disagrees with them.

 

[Astray]

Yes, it would've been a much better idea to do an Xbox Series X digital, instead of the Series S.

But I suppose the appeal of launching a lower priced machine that could be seen as a gateway to their ecosystem and GamePass was far too tempting.

Their core thesis for this gen has been that console TAM is not impossible to increase, however, they didn't anticipate how low Sony would go with their initial digital PS5, and they also didn't anticipate how entrenched network effects are and how gaming as a whole is now facing a hard cap on TAM growth (COVID basically exposed the industry's claims of perpetual growth and showed investors the absolute ceiling of the market).

They also had a core thesis that exclusives weren't important for pushing consoles, then pivoted to them being important enough to spend over 80 billion on, then pivoted back to them not being important when upper management realized how much money was being burnt in the division.

All this in the space of ONE GENERATION, mind you.

These guys are absolute jokers who simply don't understand the market they're in.

Are times that bad that we have people desperately trying to wrestle away the ~5m steam deck sales and make them Xbox sales?

Have some dignity.

Those 5 mil can be the difference between "bad, but not quite Wii U" and "As bad as Wii U". So I understand the fervor behind it lol.

This Microsoft Gaming management clearly cares a LOT about this difference in optics, so anyone who wants to placate them has to as well.

 

[Astray]

I'm not saying Sony doesn't get flak. I'm saying that someone presenting figures that were allegedly slightly skewed in favor of Sony - presenting those figures in apparent good faith, with a history and rigor behind them (vs. sheer fanboying) - would not face this sort of backlash on GAF. No, Sony is not immune to criticism. But I'm not going to pretend that it's even close to a fair balance.

You forget that nobody needs to present figures on behalf of Sony -good or bad- because they announce them every quarter.

Same goes for Nintendo, only one brand has allowed the market to argue about its sales estimates for 2 gens in a row.

 

[Ar¢tos]

You forget that nobody needs to present figures on behalf of Sony -good or bad- because they announce them every quarter.

Same goes for Nintendo, only one brand has allowed the market to argue about its sales estimates for 2 gens in a row.

That's because the numbers are so good it would make the other 2 feel deep shame and discomfort.
Be thankful for MS kindness.