February 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

L

LicenceToK1ll

Member
beast786 said:
please I was dead on ps4 numbers, just didn't realize how badly xb1 would sell. This month is even worse. For more than a week ps4 was not even available on amazon. Looking at pal numbers it clearly shows how supply constraint ps4 was probably due to japan launch.
Click to expand...

Well the February best sellers list on Amazon suggests the PS4 is still comfortably outselling the Xbone so i expect the same scenario as in January.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
So does the Forza bundle make anyone else think that Microsoft's internal tracking didn't show a very good number over the last month?

And the PS4 may be suffering from quite bad supply constraint?

This may end up a very bad February...
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
shinra-bansho said:
So does the Forza bundle make anyone else think that Microsoft's internal tracking didn't show a very good number over the last month?

And the PS4 may be suffering from quite bad supply constraint?

This may end up a very bad February...
Click to expand...

Are you talking about an American Forza XB1 bundle? As I haven't seen that

It seems to me that Chinese New Year really cut down the stock potentially available for Feb as Sony seems to have stockpiled a lot of what they got for March.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
[360] 65K
[3DS] 111K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 180K
[WIU] 66K
[XB1] 120K

let's go

edit: Xbox down

edit: PS4 down too after looking at Aquamarine's US/world split for sales

also some bonus predictions that may or may not end up looking stupid:
DK: TF-70k
FFXIII: LR-120k
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
LicenceToK1ll said:
Well the February best sellers list on Amazon suggests the PS4 is still comfortably outselling the Xbone so i expect the same scenario as in January.
Click to expand...

I know people are relying on Amazon (or other sites) for a PS4 since they are still hard for many to find in stores. Xbox One isn't though obviously.

shinra-bansho said:
So does the Forza bundle make anyone else think that Microsoft's internal tracking didn't show a very good number over the last month?

And the PS4 may be suffering from quite bad supply constraint?

This may end up a very bad February...
Click to expand...

Not sure. I was a bit surprised by it. I think this news pretty much confirms that there will be a $400 Xbox One in the fall as I predicted months before the system even launched. We'll find out soon.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Not sure. I was a bit surprised by it. I think this news pretty much confirms that there will be a $400 Xbox One in the fall as I predicted months before the system even launched. We'll find out soon.
Click to expand...

I think it will get announced at E3 but there are really only two questions in my mind on a pricedrop to $400, one, will it be announced at E3 or later? and two, will MS drop the kinect or not?

At this point I just want a XB1 for $400 so don't care if they decide to keep kinect in or not but it is a valid point of interest I think
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
SwiftDeath said:
I think it will get announced at E3 but there are really only two questions in my mind on a pricedrop to $400, one, will it be announced at E3 or later? and two, will MS drop the kinect or not?

At this point I just want a XB1 for $400 so don't care if they decide to keep kinect in or not but it is a valid point of interest I think
Click to expand...

I don't think they'll drop kinect. Too much money and time spent for it alongside system features made with it in mind.

Think they'll just drop the price and keep kinect.

And in terms of the announcement, I think they will simply announce a $500 Halo bundle at E3 and then announce a $400 Xbox One (with no games) shortly before the release of Halo.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I don't think they'll drop kinect. Too much money and time spent for it alongside system features made with it in mind.

Think they'll just drop the price and keep kinect.
Click to expand...

Up until like 2 weeks ago, I was fairly convinced the obvious move on MS's part was dropping kinect going forward but after this article I'm less certain.

I can't fathom what they see in kinect as clearly by the numbers the masses find a lower price more compelling than the kinect as it stands. It seems illogical to me to include it going forward but again I don't really care at a personal level, simply find it fascinating at a business level

Bgamer90 said:
And in terms of the announcement, I think they will simply announce a $500 Halo bundle at E3 and then announce a $400 Xbox One (with no games) shortly before the release of Halo.
Click to expand...

A Halo 2 Anniversary Bundle at E3? That would mean they are stuck with like 4 months of being at $500 without a bundle unless you expect them to keep the Titanfall bundle indefinitely? I thought that would be temporary as it can't be cheap. Nor would it be nearly as compelling to consumers as a $100 price drop would be.

I do agree though that a $400 base SKU for XB1 with or without kinect is needed by Fall if they want to stay in the game at all though
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
SwiftDeath said:
Up until like 2 weeks ago, I was fairly convinced the obvious move on MS's part was dropping kinect going forward but after this article I'm less certain.

I can't fathom what they see in kinect as clearly by the numbers the masses find a lower price more compelling than the kinect as it stands. It seems illogical to me to include it going forward but again I don't really care at a personal level, simply find it fascinating at a business level
Click to expand...

Don't see how anyone could complain about a lower price + kinect. If anything some may find it a better value especially with the Xbox One having streaming which is something that a decent number of people seem to be interested in.

A Halo 2 Anniversary Bundle at E3? That would mean they are stuck with like 4 months of being at $500 without a bundle unless you expect them to keep the Titanfall bundle indefinitely? I thought that would be temporary as it can't be cheap. Nor would it be nearly as compelling to consumers as a $100 price drop would be.

I do agree though that a $400 base SKU for XB1 with or without kinect is needed by Fall if they want to stay in the game at all though
Click to expand...

I'm expecting them to keep the Titanfall bundle for a while. The next big Xbox release which I guess is Sunset Overdrive is still many months away.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Don't see how anyone could complain about a lower price + kinect. If anything some may find it a better value especially with the Xbox One having streaming which is something that a decent number of people seem to be interested in.
Click to expand...

A $400 XB1 with kinect is obviously a better value than a $400 XB1 without a kinect so I agree? I simply meant that from a business perspective, I don't understand why MS is so keen on bundling in the kinect. Dropping the price will clearly improve their sales more than keeping the kinect at this point. Obviously doing both will result in at least the same amount of improved sales as dropping the price but in doing so MS would have to eat $50 - $75 USD per console for what the next 10 million consoles at least until they can cut the manufacturing cost? So like a loss of $500 - $750 million just so that everyone can have a kinect because it differentiates your product slightly?

Doesn't make sense to me at all from a business perspective although again at this point I have no frickin idea what MS is going to do

Bgamer90 said:
I'm expecting them to keep the Titanfall bundle for a while. The next big Xbox release which I guess is Sunset Overdrive is still many months away.
Click to expand...

That's got to be an additional $30 - $40 USD a console then and it will only appeal to people who have internet capable of running a MP game decently, people who have a desire to play competitive MP shooters, and people who are willing to pay for gold. While that smaller demographic represents the one MS wants the most, I can't see it resulting in a massive shift in XB1's current sales trajectory in the US and UK. Guess we'll see though
 
A

Apophis2036

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
I don't think they'll drop kinect. Too much money and time spent for it alongside system features made with it in mind.

Think they'll just drop the price and keep kinect.

And in terms of the announcement, I think they will simply announce a $500 Halo bundle at E3 and then announce a $400 Xbox One (with no games) shortly before the release of Halo.
Click to expand...

You think they will take a $1 billion loss over 10 million console sales if they just drop to $400 and keep Kinect this year ?.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Road said:
It will be top 5, maybe even top 3.

Chart position doesn't much because it can rank high even with terrible sales, such as 200k.
Click to expand...

I'm willing to bet it's not going to break 200k
but for reference, do we have the sales of the previous two entries' first month?
going NPD hunting gives me FFXIII=1322K and FFXIII-2<355K, that's actually a bigger drop than the UK, huh

edit: I'm gonna make the sort of brave but not really prediction that it'll end up sub-150k
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Road said:
It will be top 5, maybe even top 3.

Chart position doesn't much because it can rank high even with terrible sales, such as 200k.
Click to expand...

I thought you were talking about Bravely Default, looking at your post...strange you're talking about LR, the much inferior game sales-wise.

...Joking, but not that much
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
How Bravely Default and Lighting Returns: Final Fantasy XIII fared and are faring on Amazon + other sites.

February 12th (LR released on 11th; BD already released on 7th)

The battle inside Square-Enix

Bravely Default | Standard ($39.99) 4th / Collector's - 225th (available from other sellers; no price reported)

Lighting Returns: Final Fantasy XIII
PS3 ($59.99) - 9th
360 ($59.99) - 56th
Click to expand...

February 14th

Bravely Default | Standard ($39.99) 6th / Collector's - 371st (available from other sellers; no price reported)

Lighting Returns: Final Fantasy XIII
PS3 ($59.99) - 31st
360 ($59.99) - 131st
Click to expand...

Also, from what I remember, all the places over BD were occupied by download cards and PS4, so actually the best selling gaming item.

The same happened during the following week, with BD being still in top 20, even if around the low positions of top 20, but it was going down mainly due to special deals for download codes and retail games...so much that, last Friday, when most of them were over, was already 14th again. Still, counting download cards and consoles as well in the mix. LR? Outside of top 100 with the PS3 SKU, around 300th with the 360 one.

And, looking at Gamestop charts, as well as Best Buy ones, the situation was quite the same, with BD being high and, above all, higher than both LR SKUs. And it was available basically everywhere, except for Walmart, so not a case of sales being way higher on specific places due to the game being not available anywhere else.

During last week, the game started being sold out and being sold at a consistent markup, even at $64.99. And, finally,it went down. But, surprisingly, not as much as you'd expect. In fact, this is the situation on February 28th, around 9-10 PM GMT

Bravely Default ($53.99) - 56th

Lighting Returns: Final Fantasy XIII
PS3 ($59.99) - 177th
360 ($59.99) - 550th

At the time, Bravely Default was outselling on Amazon the following games, released that week

Plants v.s. Zombies: Garden Warfare (both SKUs)
Tales of Symphonia Chronicles
Thief for One
Layton
Castlevania: LOS2 for both

This week, it's back on stock. Currently, this is the situation on Amazon

@14:08 GMT

Bravely Default ($39.96) - 39th

Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII
PS3 ($45.94) - 109th
360 ($49.99) - 568th

For other references, Bravely Default is 5th in Gamestop Best selling games chart , 9th in Best Buy recent releases chart.

Instead, LR IS 34th (PS3) and 54th (360) in Gamestop chart, 19th (PS3) and 38th (360) in Best Buy's

Personal forecast

BD - 180k (retail + digital) --> what sold by Fire Emblem last year, but with a much bigger relevance of retail for obvious reasons
LR (all) - lower than 200k, around that ballpark / < 180k
 
T

theprodigy

Member
<180k?
that's weak
I must say, I am now extremely tempted to go for <130k

edit: anyone wanna do DK predictions instead?
I doubt it'll be significantly over Japan sales
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Comparing the start of the 7th-gen to the start of the 8th-gen:



January 2007

Total console / handheld software sales = $549 million software sales
$439 million console / handheld software sales adjusted for 4-week period
---7th-gen: PS3, Wii, 360, PSP, DS = $310 million software sales unadjusted, $248 million adjusted
---6th-gen: PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA = $239 million software sales unadjusted, $191 million adjusted

1) Wii: 436K (348K adjusted for 4 weeks)
2) PS2: 299K (239K adjusted for 4 weeks)
3) 360: 294K (235K adjusted for 4 weeks) (249K first January)
4) PS3: 244K (195K adjusted for 4 weeks)
5) DS: 239K (191K adjusted for 4 weeks)
5) GBA: 179K (144K adjusted for 4 weeks)
6) GC: 34K (27K adjusted for 4 weeks)
7) Xbox: 0.8K (0.7K adjusted for 4 weeks)


January 2014

Total console / handheld software sales = $224 million software sales

1) PS4: 271K
2) XB1: 141K
3) 3DS: ~97K
4) PS3: ~53.5K
5) Wii U: 49K (46K 4-weeks, 57K 5-weeks first January)
6) 360: ~48.5K
Wii: <25K
Vita: <17K
DS: Dead
PSP: what
PS2: hahaha





February 2007

Total console / handheld software sales = $441 million software sales
---7th-gen: PS3, Wii, 360, PSP, DS = $275 million software sales
---6th-gen: PS2, Xbox, GC, GBA = $165 million software sales

1) NDS: 485K
2) Wii: 335K
3) PS2: 295K
4) 360: 228K (161K its first February)
5) PSP: 176K
6) GBA: 136K
7) PS3: 127K
8) GC: 24K
9) Xbox: 0.5K



The video game retail software market was certainly a lot stronger back at the start of the 7th gen than it is now.

PS3 and 360 are following the same trend as GC / Xbox...that is, their market presence vanishes once their successor comes on the market.

The difference here is that PS2 / GBA were surprisingly resilient when PS3 / 360 / Wii came onto the market. But PS3 can't hold a candle to its predecessor in USA retail.

It will be interesting to see whether Xbox One's February 2014 is enough to outpace PS3's February 2007 (127K).
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Aquamarine said:
The difference here is that PS2 / GBA were surprisingly resilient when PS3 / 360 / Wii came onto the market. But PS3 can't hold a candle to its predecessor in USA retail.
Click to expand...

To be fair, one of the big reasons for PS2s longer tail was the emergence of Guitar Hero, Rock Band and the Dance/Music craze.
 
A

ascii42

Member
CosmicQueso said:
To be fair, one of the big reasons for PS2s longer tail was the emergence of Guitar Hero, Rock Band and the Dance/Music craze.
Click to expand...

Yep. PS2 was the only option for playing Guitar Hero until April 2007, and after that was still the cheapest option by far.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
hey shinra-bansho, since that PAL thread is dead by now, could you clarify where you got this part from?
shinra-bansho said:
Hmm, 360 and PS3 seemingly holding up reasonably well despite successor launches, collectively down only 27%. The Xbox One alone can make up for that decline.

Comparatively, from what I can infer, I think the PS3 and 360 collectively saw a greater than 50% decline Y/Y in January NPD, which is terrible even considering the extra week in 2013.

Question though, jvm, (and you may have answered this before, I forget) is this a 4 week month against a 4 week month for the UK data?
Click to expand...

since you said you were talking about software there

edit: looking at DK: TF's Japan performance and looking at how DKCR did in Japan vs America, I'm going to confidently guess it'll be around 70k this month

(also chart rankings from Japan+Europe, disregarding PS4 launch/Knack in Media Create:
Japan: 2-->7-->16
UK: 4-->21
Germany: 1-->5
France: 1-->???)
 
P

pretty done

Member
Mpl90 said:
Personal forecast

BD - 180k (retail + digital) --> what sold by Fire Emblem last year, but with a much bigger relevance of retail for obvious reasons
LR (all) - lower than 200k, around that ballpark / < 180k
Click to expand...

I haven't played BD yet since I don't own a 3DS, but nothing would make me happier than it outselling both versions of FFXIII-3. Would be the biggest "fuck you, you dumb fucks" to Square and yet they still probably wouldn't get the message.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
[360] 55K
[3DS] 110K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 150K

Somehow optimistic (lol) about the WiiU.

Now, when will those PS4 owners buy their Vita... :(
 
T

theprodigy

Member
famousmortimer said:
[360] 49k
[3DS] 98k
[PS3] 47k
[PS4] 245k
[WIU] 51k
[XB1] 106k
Click to expand...

for reference, his January numbers:
[360] 104k (+~100%)
[3DS] 130K (+34%)
[PS3] 88k (+~76%)
[PS4] 235k (-13%)
[WIU] 54k (+5%? I forgot the number)
[XB1] 110k (-22%)

ranking: 2nd (units)/4th (points), granted everyone aimed too high last month

funny, I was planning on revising XB1 to 120k already

Ty4on said:
Now, when will those PS4 owners buy their Vita... :(
Click to expand...

in America?
never

edit: this reminds me, how does the points calculation for the prediction results work
 
F

famousmortimer

Banned
Trevelyon said:
is this a friendly stab in the dark or does it come well informed, or at least one vendor's numbers.
Click to expand...

Last month (where someone PM'd me and said i came in 2nd?) I was more of a cheater.


My reasoning for these numbers are... it's january, again, but with less reasons to buy either console. Also, short month. I actually just revised my ps4 number down to compensate for that as well.


The scuttlebutt behind the scenes is that the XB1 didn't pick up any steam... and, in fact, the titanfall bundle is currently selling below expectations but they are hopeful that it shoots up on tuesday. So I guess that shaped my XB1 numbers, slightly. But Im not sure how accurate that info is. There are just as many rumors among industry people as there are among us.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
famousmortimer said:
My reasoning for these numbers are... it's january, again, but with less reasons to buy either console. Also, short month. I actually just revised my ps4 number down to compensate for that as well.
Click to expand...

Jan NPD and Feb NPD have the same time coverage, 4 weeks for both.
 
Yoda

Yoda

Member
Bgamer90 said:
I don't think they'll drop kinect. Too much money and time spent for it alongside system features made with it in mind.

Think they'll just drop the price and keep kinect.

And in terms of the announcement, I think they will simply announce a $500 Halo bundle at E3 and then announce a $400 Xbox One (with no games) shortly before the release of Halo.
Click to expand...

The only place we've seen the kinect really catch on is in non-gaming relating areas. Its a quality piece of tech in its current incarnation, but not for gaming. $400 XB 1 w/Kinect would either be breaking even or taking a small lose. Most gamers, especially people who will buy it at $500 or $400 don't want it. It could increase their install base without having to pull a 2007 Sony where consoles sold = money lost. Unless Kinect Sports is something downright amazing, there are no 'killer-apps' coming out for this.

Another thing to consider is given that there won't be a juggernaut install base on any system(PS2/first half of last gen Wii). There is no reason for a 3rd party to make a Kinect focused game unless Microsoft backs them up substantially; but if MS can't make a killer-app for the Kinect is it reasonable to assume a 3rd party can?
 
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