February 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

SwiftDeath said:
I always wonder if industry individuals might not have a pool going on whether or not The Last Guardian gets announced/released/scuttled etc.
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Oh absolutely.

Also, the people I know atleast, are very excited for new games. Guys on the battlefield team that are huge COD players, stuff like that. It's the publishers/marketing guys/suits that get into "console warz." The creative people generally want to try everything they can.
 
famousmortimer said:
Last month (where someone PM'd me and said i came in 2nd?) I was more of a cheater.


My reasoning for these numbers are... it's january, again, but with less reasons to buy either console. Also, short month. I actually just revised my ps4 number down to compensate for that as well.


The scuttlebutt behind the scenes is that the XB1 didn't pick up any steam... and, in fact, the titanfall bundle is currently selling below expectations but they are hopeful that it shoots up on tuesday. So I guess that shaped my XB1 numbers, slightly. But Im not sure how accurate that info is. There are just as many rumors among industry people as there are among us.
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Oh boy.
 
famousmortimer said:
Oh absolutely.

Also, the people I know atleast, are very excited for new games. Guys on the battlefield team that are huge COD players, stuff like that. It's the publishers/marketing guys/suits that get into "console warz." The creative people generally want to try everything they can.
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hey any insight on DK sales :P
 
famousmortimer said:
Last month (where someone PM'd me and said i came in 2nd?) I was more of a cheater.


My reasoning for these numbers are... it's january, again, but with less reasons to buy either console. Also, short month. I actually just revised my ps4 number down to compensate for that as well.


The scuttlebutt behind the scenes is that the XB1 didn't pick up any steam... and, in fact, the titanfall bundle is currently selling below expectations but they are hopeful that it shoots up on tuesday. So I guess that shaped my XB1 numbers, slightly. But Im not sure how accurate that info is. There are just as many rumors among industry people as there are among us.
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I also believe that Microsoft won't pick up sales in February, but I measured it as a slight decline (141K -> 135K), while yours is more robust (141K -> 106K).

Is the 35K MOM decline the product of a fundamentally weaker market in February? Or was the dust still settling in January and February represents the Xbox One's current state?

Obviously this is way behind where Microsoft wants to be...I'm using Sony's PS4 success as the benchmark for what Microsoft wishes to achieve.

I wonder if that will cause them to jump into more desperate measures if Titanfall fizzles out on the platform. I feel like Titanfall's impact on March-May NPD will be the impetus on whether or not Microsoft announces a sudden $399 SKU at E3 2014.
 
SwiftDeath said:
A $400 XB1 with kinect is obviously a better value than a $400 XB1 without a kinect so I agree? I simply meant that from a business perspective, I don't understand why MS is so keen on bundling in the kinect. Dropping the price will clearly improve their sales more than keeping the kinect at this point. Obviously doing both will result in at least the same amount of improved sales as dropping the price but in doing so MS would have to eat $50 - $75 USD per console for what the next 10 million consoles at least until they can cut the manufacturing cost? So like a loss of $500 - $750 million just so that everyone can have a kinect because it differentiates your product slightly?

Doesn't make sense to me at all from a business perspective although again at this point I have no frickin idea what MS is going to do



That's got to be an additional $30 - $40 USD a console then and it will only appeal to people who have internet capable of running a MP game decently, people who have a desire to play competitive MP shooters, and people who are willing to pay for gold. While that smaller demographic represents the one MS wants the most, I can't see it resulting in a massive shift in XB1's current sales trajectory in the US and UK. Guess we'll see though
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Kinect is a market differentiator and is integral to many parts of the system.

Strip away Kinect, and you have a less powered console compared to the PS4, and without Sony's first party.

Microsoft's challenge is to make Kinect relevant, rather than being a ball and chain weighing them down.
 
I'm waiting to make my predictions, but I remember PS4 being completely sold out or the entire month of February. And while I expect all other systems to be up, I don't think it's likely that PS4 sold over 200k.
 
James Sawyer Ford said:
Kinect is a market differentiator and is integral to many parts of the system.

Strip away Kinect, and you have a less powered console compared to the PS4, and without Sony's first party.

Microsoft's challenge is to make Kinect relevant, rather than being a ball and chain weighing them down.
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The problem is they needed to have done that BEFORE the system launched. They essentially had a public beta of the software for half of last generation and still are empty handed? The tech isn't going to benefit their system more than hinder it from a games perspective. A $400.00 price point would help them get the box into people's living rooms where they can rake in LIVE subscription sales and software royalties.
 
February has tended to be up over January. Fast tax refund checks? Waking up from Christmas malaise that affected January? Who knows. Figuring that there's going to be some bleed over into XB1 sales in February going by people having money in their pockets and no PS4s on the shelf, though. If it turns out not to be the case, live and learn. :)

theprodigy said:
edit: this reminds me, how does the points calculation for the prediction results work
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It's in the OP. Point values per system might not be accurate (should be 25 points per system currently, since PS3/WIU are units only), but rest should be okay.

donny2112 said:
See here for details on the point calculations.
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theprodigy said:
Hey Aquamarine, do you think 3DS/Wii U will receive similar January-->February bumps as last year or not?
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Wii U yes, I do see a similar bump because of DKC: TF moving a few copies, and February tending to be stronger.

3DS I see a bump from January like last year, but not as significant.
 
donny2112 said:
February has tended to be up over January. Fast tax refund checks? Waking up from Christmas malaise that affected January? Who knows. Figuring that there's going to be some bleed over into XB1 sales in February going by people having money in their pockets and no PS4s on the shelf, though. If it turns out not to be the case, live and learn. :)



It's in the OP. Point values per system might not be accurate (should be 25 points per system currently, since PS3/WIU are units only), but rest should be okay.
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oh, there's a bonus for correct order (not that anyone got it last month) and for placing in top 10 for units
and I got 11th
damn it!

edit: haha over half my points last month came from my 275k PS4 prediction

also why isn't it just +10 down to +1 for top 10
 
Yoda said:
The only place we've seen the kinect really catch on is in non-gaming relating areas. Its a quality piece of tech in its current incarnation, but not for gaming. $400 XB 1 w/Kinect would either be breaking even or taking a small lose. Most gamers, especially people who will buy it at $500 or $400 don't want it. It could increase their install base without having to pull a 2007 Sony where consoles sold = money lost. Unless Kinect Sports is something downright amazing, there are no 'killer-apps' coming out for this.

Another thing to consider is given that there won't be a juggernaut install base on any system(PS2/first half of last gen Wii). There is no reason for a 3rd party to make a Kinect focused game unless Microsoft backs them up substantially; but if MS can't make a killer-app for the Kinect is it reasonable to assume a 3rd party can?
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I honestly think we'll see some neat stuff when it comes to indie games. Plus the Xbox One will have streaming soon and it seems like people really want PS4 cameras for that feature on that system. We'll see what happens though. Think it's safe to say either way though that we will be seeing a $400 Xbox One during next Xmas season at the latest.

I like the kinect for the Xbox One a lot but mainly for its features in making the act of getting into games fast and just overall interface navigation. The head tracking in some of the "AAA" games like Forza is neat and I would like to see it be used in all racing games that have a cockpit view. I also liked Xbox Fitness and the Sports Rivals demo when I tried both out.

Edit: Oh, also interested in D4 too.
 
Umm, never done this before, but I'll try my hand at it.

[PS4] 224k
[XB1] 110k
[3DS] 65k
[WIU] 21k
[360] 35k
[PS3] 28k
 
Heshinsi said:
Umm, never done this before, but I'll try my hand at it.

[PS4] 224k
[XB1] 110k
[3DS] 65k
[WIU] 21k
[360] 35k
[PS3] 28k
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The Wii U's absolute lowest weekly figures are ~7.25K per week / ~29K per 4-weeks.

This month is four weeks of tracking, February is usually a bump from January, and we have Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze releasing for the system.

I don't see that equating to a significant drop from 49K (January) to 21K. The Wii U isn't in its slowest sales period, and it didn't do poorly enough in January to warrant such a low figure.

Then again, anything's possible when it comes to the Wii U...
 
Aquamarine said:
The Wii U's absolute lowest weekly figures are ~7.25K per week / ~29K per 4-weeks.

This month is four weeks of tracking, February is usually a bump from January, and we have Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze releasing for the system.

I don't see that equating to a significant drop from 49K (January) to 21K. The Wii U isn't in its slowest sales period, and it didn't do poorly enough in January to warrant such a low figure.

Then again, anything's possible when it comes to the Wii U...
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I don't see Donkey Kong doing anything for the system here either
that being said, Wii U isn't gonna take the plunge to Vita territory just yet
 
Hoo-doo said:
What will cause the X1 to overtake the PS4 this february? Titanfall anticipation?
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His Xbone number is less than Jan so his reason is definitely not "Titanfall anticipation".

If I had to guess, I'll say it's because PS4 was supply constrained in Feb.
 
Aquamarine said:
I don't see that equating to a significant drop from 49K (January) to 21K. The Wii U isn't in its slowest sales period, and it didn't do poorly enough in January to warrant such a low figure.

Then again, anything's possible when it comes to the Wii U...
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The WiiU has shown some not super horrible numbers in the US though. The collapse of last gen gave it some company and december sales were not too bad. It's not quite as not super horrible as the Vita is in Japan.

You know the market is messed up when I can't call Japan's second best selling console's sales decent :P
 
Ty4on said:
The WiiU has shown some not super horrible numbers in the US though. The collapse of last gen gave it some company and december sales were not too bad. It's not quite as not super horrible as the Vita is in Japan.

You know the market is messed up when I can't call Japan's second best selling console's sales decent :P
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The Vita may not be doing particularly well in Japan, but I don't think you could call what the WiiU has been doing here better. Through Mar 2, the Vita has sold around 250k in Japan. The WiiU would have to sell 200k in February just to catch up. The Wii US:PSP Japan ratio was about 2:1.
 
Ty4on said:
The WiiU has shown some not super horrible numbers in the US though. The collapse of last gen gave it some company and december sales were not too bad. It's not quite as not super horrible as the Vita in the US.
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fixed
Vita sells as much in one week in Japan as it does in one month of NPD data
 
[PS4] 210K
[XBO] 95K
[WiiU] 40K

Aquamarine said:
This month is four weeks of tracking, February is usually a bump from January
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It is? Well I might have to revise then...

[PS4] 290K
[XBO] 160K
[WiiU] 80K

These are my most optimistic predictions, the other being pessimistic. I just assumed Feb would be lower than January partly b/c it's a shorter month.
 
theprodigy said:
also why isn't it just +10 down to +1 for top 10
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Wanted to give a greater weight for getting the top units result instead of "just" one point more than second/nine points more than tenth. Also provides more of a curve to ease into the no-bonus area than just a straight line.

More like
infinity2.jpg
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than
missing_graph.png
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.

jhmtehgamr20xx said:
I just assumed Feb would be lower than January partly b/c it's a shorter month.
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NPD months are defined as 4 or 5 week months going from Sunday to Saturday for each week. They do not try to match the calendar. jvm provides a Google spreadsheet defining each NPD month in a link in the OP. In NPD calculations, January and February are both 4-week months.

Also, if you intend your results to be counted, please follow the format in the OP.
 
famousmortimer said:
The scuttlebutt behind the scenes is that the XB1 didn't pick up any steam... and, in fact, the titanfall bundle is currently selling below expectations but they are hopeful that it shoots up on tuesday. So I guess that shaped my XB1 numbers, slightly. But Im not sure how accurate that info is. There are just as many rumors among industry people as there are among us.
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I'm not surprised tbh; also had a feeling low Feb #s were why they went with a TF bundle to begin with, not just January #s.

donny2112 said:
helpful advice
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Thnx man; I'll get on reformatting that post.
 
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