February 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes March 10th

I

Into

Member
[360] 68K
[3DS] 87K
[PS3] 50K
[PS4] 280K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 160K


Do not see how or why people are predicting the XB1 to have some miraculous jump, January to February traditionally does not offer that. The only thing that is historically assured is a small bump to everything
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
[360] 57K
[3DS] 112K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 195K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 145K

Let's hope my predictions ring true for this month!
 
A

anexanhume

Member
SwiftDeath said:
Man the Feb NPD thread is going to be crazy. March even more so
Click to expand...

March is MS's do or die month. If they can't beat PS4 in NA that month, they might never again this year. I don't have a lot of confidence in H2A trumping whatever Sony does unless MS aggressively bundles or (gasp) price drops.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
anexanhume said:
March is MS's do or die month. If they can't beat PS4 in NA that month, they might never again this year. I don't have a lot of confidence in H2A trumping whatever Sony does unless MS aggressively bundles or (gasp) price drops.
Click to expand...

Yes there will be a reckoning if XB1 is second fiddle to PS4 in March's NPD. I can see it going either direction to be honest. XB1 will certainly have a strong showing though. I am curious what the hell Sony is doing supply-wise though as I can't tell where they have been allocating their stock for February. A sub 400K shipment to Japan is large but that still suggest 700K to 1M stock that was allocated elsewhere.

Feb numbers should let us know more about Sony's stock plans with Japan in the mix

MS has a decent Fall lineup with Horizion 2 and Sunset Overdrive and/or Quantum Break

I expect Sony's lineup has the potential to be better but not amazingly so. 2015 will be the first real year of the PS4 if verendus is anything to go by.

March is absolutely the indicator as to whether MS will drop the price of the console. If they lose March NPD I feel there is no other choice, although if it's close I dunno.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Road said:
Amazon best sellers in February: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-02/videogames/#1

3. PS4

23. XBO
71. XBO + Titanfall (pre-order)
Click to expand...

I wonder how many units the TF bundle was allocated. Has yet to sell out which is surprising although without knowing the numbers not that interesting.

It is interesting that PS4 is still charting high on best sellers in Feb. as I didn't see it available too much.

I guess it did appear in stock several times though

http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/full_history.php
 
L

LOCK

Member
I'm going to start predicting again.

[360] 55K
[3DS] 115K
[PS3] 58K
[PS4] 240K
[WIU] 70K
[XB1] 150K
 
B

Bundy

Banned
beast786 said:
[PS4] 158K
[XB1] 220K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 60K
[360] 80K
[WIU] 50K

Japan launch, pal charts with xb1 and lack of available on amazon clearly shows XB1 will take advantage of ps4 stock issues. plus now we have seen Titan fall
Click to expand...

fasTRapid said:
No way. We thought the same thing a month ago and then it still got outsold 2:1.
Click to expand...
Well, let's take a look at his posts in the "January Prediction Thread":

beast786 said:
I am not sure why people believe PS4 is more than XB1. PS4 was supply constrained just like in December. I expect overall he same ratio as December but just less numbers.
Click to expand...

beast786 said:
[360] 150K
[3DS] 200K
[PS3] 85K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 350K
Click to expand...

I see a pattern here :p
 
D

Delusibeta

Banned
I really don't see where people are getting an Xbone jump from, since the Titanfall bundle will count towards the March total, not the February total.

I'm expecting the PS4 demand to begin to taper off, but I also expect the Xbone demand to drop noticeably. Everything else will be in the doldrums.

Checking my score from last time, I vastly overestimated everything and predicted the 3DS to top the month by 50k, which in hindsight was dumb.
 
B

Bundy

Banned
N.Domixis said:
[PS4] 170K
[XB1] 13K
[3DS] 86K
[PS3] 48K
[360] 38K
[WIU] 51K
Click to expand...

kjkt.gif
 
D

DaBoss

Member
[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 120K
[3DS] 107K
[WIU] 51K
[PS3] 50K
[360] 47K

I'm gonna assume that sales are limited by supply for the PS4. The Japanese launch that has just occurred which required Sony to allocate units for Japan is not gonna help with this number. XB1 seemed to have its demand drop off past the holidays a la Wii U last year which declined from January to February.

Going to assume that that decline + January -> February increase is positive for 3DS, and a negligible amount for the rest.

TL;DR: Dedicated gaming sales are dead. ;_;
 
M

Miles X

Member
Delusibeta said:
I really don't see where people are getting an Xbone jump from, since the Titanfall bundle will count towards the March total, not the February total.
Click to expand...

Because February nearly always sees jump, tax month.


[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 180K
[3DS] 140K
[WIU] 70K
[PS3] 60K
[360] 70K
 
B

beast786

Member
Bundy said:
Well, let's take a look at his posts in the "January Prediction Thread":





I see a pattern here :p
Click to expand...

please I was dead on ps4 numbers, just didn't realize how badly xb1 would sell. This month is even worse. For more than a week ps4 was not even available on amazon. Looking at pal numbers it clearly shows how supply constraint ps4 was probably due to japan launch.
 
A

A_Gorilla

Banned
beast786 said:
please I was dead on ps4 numbers, just didn't realize how badly xb1 would sell. This month is even worse. For more than a week ps4 was not even available on amazon. Looking at pal numbers it clearly shows how supply constraint ps4 was probably due to japan launch.
Click to expand...

ITT: being off by 21k equals "dead on."
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
PS4 Sales (NPD compared to Global sales)


NPD - November 30th - 1138K (1138K LTD)
Global - 2 weeks - December 1st, 2013 - 2.1 million
NPD-to-Global ratio: 54%


NPD - January 4th - 863K (2001K LTD)
Global - 1 month - December 28th, 2013 - 4.2 million
NPD-to-Global ratio: 48%


NPD - February 1st - 271K (2272K LTD)
Global - 2.5 months - February 8th, 2014 - 5.3 million
NPD-to-Global ratio: 43%


NPD - March 1st - ???K
Global - 3 months - March 2nd, 2014 - 6.0 million
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
This month could be very interesting for one reason: Bravely Default outselling LR: Final Fantasy XIII :p
 
C

Capella

Member
beast786 said:
please I was dead on ps4 numbers, just didn't realize how badly xb1 would sell. This month is even worse. For more than a week ps4 was not even available on amazon. Looking at pal numbers it clearly shows how supply constraint ps4 was probably due to japan launch.
Click to expand...
Yet, it's well ahead of the XB1 in sales on Amazon for the month of Feb and this was before the Titanfall bundle was announced.
 
P

Prototype Viktor

Member
DaBoss said:
I'm gonna assume that sales are limited by supply for the PS4. The Japanese launch that has just occurred which required Sony to allocate units for Japan is not gonna help with this number. XB1 seemed to have its demand drop off past the holidays a la Wii U last year which declined from January to February.

Going to assume that that decline + January -> February increase is positive for 3DS, and a negligible amount for the rest.

TL;DR: Dedicated gaming sales are dead. ;_;
Click to expand...

yea but considering the rumor that Sony only put 350k to Japan for launch instead of the 1 mill the did US, they probably only saved 500k tops for the first 2-4 weeks in Japan and let the Japan manufacturing plant provide more
 
D

DaBoss

Member
Prototype Viktor said:
yea but considering the rumor that Sony only put 350k to Japan for launch instead of the 1 mill the did US, they probably only saved 500k tops for the first 2-4 weeks in Japan and let the Japan manufacturing plant provide more
Click to expand...
Not really a rumor, it is around that.
 
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