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[theprodigy]

actually, now that I think about it: do you think January 2013 Wii U numbers were depressed in any way compared to what it should have been?
I honestly don't feel the January-->February bump it got last year was really legit

edit: looking at last year's numbers, it seems like February 2014 is going to be down from February 2013, both for home consoles and handhelds
yikes

 

[LegendofLex]

actually, now that I think about it: do you think January 2013 Wii U numbers were depressed in any way compared to what it should have been?

There was that speculation that tons of systems were returned in Jan by speculators, which would have been negative sales. Don't remember what the verdict wound up being on that, but the Feb bump seemed to corroborate the idea.

 

[Duxxy3]

[360] 85K
[3DS] 160K
[PS3] 105K
[PS4] 220K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 105K

 

[Nemo]

[360] 50K
[3DS] 105K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 210K
[WIU] 45K
[XB1] 130K

 

[Skeff]

Updated my Numbers based on the Sony PR and the amazon listings, I've been thinking and I think a decrease for XB1 will probably happen thanks to the announcement of the Titanfall Bundle (those sales would be March) and I think the UK pricecut may have made people wait for that to make it's way to the US too. Also lowered PS4 based on the Sony PR for 6 million sold and my own guess as to what % of that was in the US.

 

[CMojicaAce]

[360] 85K
[3DS] 95K
[PS3] 75K
[PS4] 210K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 135K

 

[bequietdrive]

[PS4] 200 K
[XB1] 110 K
[3DS ]80K
[PS3] 75K
[WII U] 70K
[360] 50K

 

[mutatedwombat]

[PS4] 244K
[XB1] 127K
[3DS] 87K
[PS3]48K
[Wii U] 44K
[360] 44K

 

[Aquamarine]

actually, now that I think about it: do you think January 2013 Wii U numbers were depressed in any way compared to what it should have been?
I honestly don't feel the January-->February bump it got last year was really legit

Most unsold systems initially bought in November or December by scalpers were most likely returned in January when the demand plummeted.

NPD records a sale and records a return in the months they occurred.

So:

Console bought by a scalper looking to make a quick buck in December from Wal-Mart
NPD records it as +1 sales in December NPD results, adding to December's total

Console returned by scalper in January
NPD records it as -1 sales in January NPD results, subtracting from January's total

NPD is trying to be a benchmark for potential install-base. The system "had the potential to contribute to" the install-base from the time it was purchased up until the time it was returned, so it's relevant to include it on December's figures but subtract it from January's figures.

So yes, this phenomenon dragged down Wii U sales to 57K when they'd normally be higher. But I'm not sure how prominent this phenomenon is to the extent where Wii U sales would be significantly higher in January than if the rate of console return was per the norm.

That is, I do think that the existence of a January -> February bump last year was legitimate, but it was probably smaller than what the raw NPD figures (56.9K -> 66.0K) represented.

 

[Loris146]

[PS4]: 255K
[XB1]: 181K
[3DS]: 139K
[PS3]: 85K
[WiiU]: 65K
[360]: 70K

 

[Finalizer]

[360] 60K
[3DS] 100K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 240K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 120K

 

[FiggyCal]

[360] 50k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 57k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 62k
[XB1] 180k

My Xbox One numbers are pretty optimistic.

PS4 numbers are down for the Japanese launch. And as well as anecdotally, the system was sold out for the entire month of February.

Is there any reason why Vita isn't counted?

 

[Aquamarine]

[360] 50k
[3DS] 100k
[PS3] 57k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 67k
[XB1] 180k

My Xbox One numbers are pretty optimistic.

PS4 numbers are down for the Japanese launch. And as well as anecdotally, the system was sold out for the entire month of February.

Is there any reason why Vita isn't counted?

For the same reason why Wii, DS, PSP, and PS2 aren't counted. NPD still tracks them, but their sell-through is so low that it isn't worth it.

No sense in keeping up with the sales of a console that's effectively dead at retail. In the USA Vita is dead and buried with its <17K January 2014 figure. Where's the fun in predicting sales of dead consoles?

 

[Catchpenny]

[PS4] 243K
[XB1] 144K
[3DS] 130K
[PS3] 61K
[WIU] 60K
[360] 55K

PS4 really feels like a guess due to being supply constrained. Otherwise I'm going with a general bump all around, other than XB1 due to people waiting for Titanfall and a general lack of enthusiasm. I'm also bullish on 3DS due to Bravely Default pulling in some consumers that aren't in Nintendo's general sphere of influence, a solid if not spectacular month of software all around, and the feeling that January was a bit of a fluke for the platform.

I also almost never do this and don't have any special knowledge, so my guesses will likely be well off the mark.

 

[RexNovis]

Let's see if I can get as close as last time. Here we go:

PS4: 195K
XB1: 102K
3DS: 86K
Wii U: 47K
PS3: 43K
360: 41K

Overall I lowballed most estimates mostly due to low January figures coupled with expected lower demand in February. Also taking into account the Japanese PS4 launch likely eating up supply a bit for PS4 coupled with low demand and rumored expectation of a price cut for US on the XB1 resulting in some seriously low figures for the month. Hoping I hit within 5k accuracy on both fronts.&#12288;&#12288;

 

[Ty4on]

fixed
Vita sells as much in one week in Japan as it does in one month of NPD data

You misunderstood my post. I wrote "not super awful" as in almost OK. More would be better. I know the Japanese sales and believe the Vita will have another YoY increase there.

 

[theprodigy]

For the same reason why Wii, DS, PSP, and PS2 aren't counted. NPD still tracks them, but their sell-through is so low that it isn't worth it.

No sense in keeping up with the sales of a console that's effectively dead at retail. In the USA Vita is dead and buried with its <17K January 2014 figure. Where's the fun in predicting sales of dead consoles?

on the contrary, predicting sales of dead consoles is where all the fun is
*ba-dum-tish*

 

[doicare]

[360] 74k
[3DS] 150k
[PS3] 70k
[PS4] 200k
[WIU] 67k
[XB1] 145k

 

[ascii42]

on the contrary, predicting sales of dead consoles is where all the fun is
*ba-dum-tish*

I'm predicting two PS2s were sold.

 

[Aquamarine]

I'm predicting two PS2s were sold.

That's probably more than Ouya can manage.

 

[theprodigy]

for the record, I predict 2k for PSP /s

 

[SwiftDeath]

That's probably more than Ouya can manage.

I'm kind of curious if there was perhaps any month when PS2 managed to outsell the Vita in the US

Prob not but that would be crazy

Obviously I'm talking about a year or two ago

 

[funkystudent]

PS4: 250K
XB1: 120K
3DS: 100K
360: 60K
PS3: 50K
Wii U: 40K

 

[ascii42]

I'm kind of curious if there was perhaps any month when PS2 managed to outsell the Vita in the US

Prob not but that would be crazy

Obviously I'm talking about a year or two ago

The last month I can find with PS2 numbers was March of 2010, where it sold 118k. Impressive, but I think 2010 was the last year it was really available in stores.
Sales probably collapsed pretty quickly after that.

 

[Catchpenny]

The last month I can find with PS2 numbers was March of 2010, where it sold 118k. Impressive, but I think 2010 was the last year it was really available in stores.
Sales probably collapsed pretty quickly after that.

Damn. Console of the forever.

 

[Aquamarine]

The last month I can find with PS2 numbers was March of 2010, where it sold 118k. Impressive, but I think 2010 was the last year it was really available in stores.
Sales probably collapsed pretty quickly after that.

Throughout 2013, PS2 was selling hundreds of units each month.

For all intents and purposes, it no longer exists in the USA retail market.

 

[theprodigy]

Throughout 2013, PS2 was selling hundreds of units each month.

For all intents and purposes, it no longer exists in the USA retail market.

hey Aquamarine, what about the epic PSP vs Ouya battle

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 120K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 62K
[360] 70K
[PS3] 55K

stop copying my predictions, cheater! /s

 

[Anth0ny]

[PS4] 180K
[XB1] 120K
[3DS] 110K
[WIU] 62K
[360] 70K
[PS3] 55K

 

[ascii42]

Throughout 2013, PS2 was selling hundreds of units each month.

For all intents and purposes, it no longer exists in the USA retail market.

I was actually one of those. I bought one from Wal-Mart early last year because I was concerned my old fat was dying and I wanted to get a slim while I still could. Felt weird leaving a store with a new PS2 when I had also done so nearly 12 year earlier. I think that Wal-Mart still has copies of Ski and Shoot.

 

[Amentallica]

PS4: 264k
Xbox One: 174k
Wii U: 67k
3DS: 100k

 

[allan-bh]

[360] 70k
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 60k
[PS4] 190k
[WIU] 65k
[XB1] 130k

 

[Apophis2036]

Probably alone but the most interesting thing for me this month is the DKC TF numbers, I really hope we get them.

What would be respectable for the US install base, 150 000 ?.

 

[Aquamarine]

I'm kind of curious if there was perhaps any month when PS2 managed to outsell the Vita in the US

Prob not but that would be crazy

Obviously I'm talking about a year or two ago

Nope. Back in 2011 (the year before Vita came on the shelves), PS2 didn't even manage 30K in any month throughout the entire year.

2012 for PS2 was dead, and 2013 for PS2 was super dead.


The Vita's lowest month in 2012 was 34K, so 2012 Vita was performing better than 2011 PS2. However, Vita would struggle compared to 2010 PS2.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Nope. Back in 2011 (the year before Vita came on the shelves), PS2 didn't even manage 30K in any month throughout the entire year.

2012 for PS2 was dead, and 2013 for PS2 was super dead.


The Vita's lowest month in 2012 was 34K, so 2012 Vita was performing better than 2011 PS2. However, Vita would struggle compared to 2010 PS2.

Vita was born too late to see the glory of the PS2

PS3 learned of that quite well in its early life though

Thanks as always Aqua

 

[twinturbo2]

One guy on twitter who will remain nameless is convinced that the Wii U will outsell the Xbox One in Feb. NPD's. I want to know what the hell he's smoking, because I doubt it's legal outside of Colorado and Washington State.

[360] 45k
[3DS] 165k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 400k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 300k

 

[donny2112]

Remember to use the format in the OP, if you want your entry counted.

 

[Aquamarine]

Vita was born too late to see the glory of the PS2

PS3 learned of that quite well in its early life though

Thanks as always Aqua

Vita's <17K January 2014 figure makes me quite worried that 2014 Vita will be very similar to 2011 PS2.

If that's the case, brace yourself for 8K / 10K Vita months.

 

[SwiftDeath]

One guy on twitter who will remain nameless is convinced that the Wii U will outsell the Xbox One in Feb. NPD's. I want to know what the hell he's smoking, because I doubt it's legal outside of Colorado and Washington State.

[360] 45k
[3DS] 165k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 400k
[WIU] 40k
[XB1] 300k

Not to be rude but he's likely just smoking a stronger variant of what you are?

400K PS4 sales might be possible if the stock was available which is unlikely

300K XB1 sales in Feb. with the introduction of the Titanfall bundle that won't be counted in sales until March 11th though would be insane

[Less insane then the Wii U outselling the XB1 though lol]

Vita's <17K January 2014 figure makes me quite worried that 2014 Vita will be very similar to 2011 PS2.

If that's the case, brace yourself for 8K / 10K Vita months.

Yeah Vita is likely toast even with Sony's retail voodoo in the US at this point

 

[twinturbo2]

Not to be rude but he's likely just smoking a stronger variant of what you are?

400K PS4 sales might be possible if the stock was available which is unlikely

300K XB1 sales with the introduction of the Titanfall bundle that won't be counted in sales until March 11th though would be insane

[Less insane then the Wii U outselling the XB1 though lol]

MS is going to close the gap, bit by bit, then things should get going and a lot more closer after E3.

I'm just wildly guessing at my numbers, though, they're probably going to be wrong.

 

[ascii42]

Vita's <17K January 2014 figure makes me quite worried that 2014 Vita will be very similar to 2011 PS2.

If that's the case, brace yourself for 8K / 10K Vita months.

Eep. So PS2 probably sold ~100k for the entire year? I'd hope the Vita can beat that, since the Vita will hopefully still get a holiday bump, whereas I'm guessing the PS2 was relatively flat all year by that point.

 

[SwiftDeath]

MS is going to close the gap, bit by bit, then things should get going and a lot more closer after E3.

I'm just wildly guessing at my numbers, though, they're probably going to be wrong.

No worries I'm always wrong so I shouldn't be one to talk

It would be great for the industry if we had that kind of number for HW sales this month considering how poor a showing January was in total

Not convinced MS will do anything at all to close the gap outside of March this year until E3 when they will likely drop price but that's just me

 

[Aquamarine]

Eep. So PS2 probably sold ~100k for the entire year? I'd hope the Vita can beat that, since the Vita will hopefully still get a holiday bump, whereas I'm guessing the PS2 was relatively flat all year by that point.

More like 220K. The 8K / 10K months happened in the mid-year ghetto (May-August). It jumped back up to ~20K from September-December.

 

[AcademicSaucer]

I really hope that bravely default sales meet nintendo expectations, otherwise , we are getting the second game somewhere never and jamais

 

[theprodigy]

I really hope that bravely default sales meet nintendo expectations, otherwise , we are getting the second game somewhere never and jamais

What would Nintendo's expectations even be for it?

 

[skedar897]

[360] 45K
[3DS] 110K
[PS3] 75K
[PS4] 243K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 175K

 

[samus4ever]

[360] 50K
[3DS] 110K
[PS3] 45K
[PS4] 290K
[WIU] 65K
[XB1] 120K

I'm going lower for X1 simply because I believe it will lose a few sales since the Titanfall bundle was announced and would hold people off from buying the system until the 11th. I think PS4 will be slightly higher since I have a few friends who were actually able to walk in and buy from stores last month.

 

[donny2112]

~10 hours left to predict for February's NPD!

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

XB1 dropping below 100k for February would cause a meltdown.

 

[Dedication Through Light]

I was dead last last month? ouch

[360] 70K
[3DS] 110K
[PS3] 88K
[PS4] 196K
[WIU] 60K
[XB1] 120K

 

[LordOcidax]

[360] 38K
[3DS] 116K
[PS3] 47K
[PS4] 198K
[WIU] 57K
[XB1] 97K