In the end I sided with the Crucible Knights because in terms of roleplaying and my character's mentality, it made the most sense. They're a stable form of law and order in the city, they would give me good access to the duc, and they weren't gangsters or criminals. The big turn off was that some of them were fucking racists. I have to say, when I returned from the delivery quest to find the Forge Knights fucking all of them up, and I didn't see the racist bastard at the entrance, I was overjoyed. Due to the events at the end of Act 2 I haven't been able to return to check if he actually survived, but I hope he died horribly.
