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I don't trust Hillary any further than I could throw her. She will say whatever she has to, and make whatever deals she has to if they will get her into the white house. If she has to stab the American people in the back and let us rot to do it, I wouldn't put it past her. She cant even fake coming off as genuine, which is one of the easiest things to do. If she gets the nomination, I won't even bother voting.

 

[dramatis]

Fundraising. No one else can compete. And she has a legacy of lobbying to continue.

That's a factor, but it's matched on the Republican side. Jeb has raised more money than she has (actually, I'm not sure if that's official campaign or super PAC, he entered the race kind of late to raise more via super PAC). Trump is apparently willing to drop bombs of money into the race, and the Koch brothers will probably be here too.

 

[Kathian]

Some people have deluded themselves into thinking its impossible for the Republicans to win to comfort themselves as they see the Republicans as alien. People also for some reason Hilary should be the next Dem nominee yonks ago and have just stuck with it so long their blind to anything else.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

I can forecast a year in advance that a cartoon character won't win. Trump, the brain surgeon who said Obama care is worse than slavery, Herman Cain -- They're all the same and they don't ever win, even though they may poll high with the base at certain points early in the process. Anyone who thinks Trump or anyone else from the "clown car" will get the nomination or even win the general is absolutely crazy and/or just not good at this.

Which of the viable candidates will win isn't something you can be productive in forecasting a year out, though. For all I know it'll be Martin O'Malley or Jim Webb. You just never know at this point.

I'll do a $40 paypal wager that O'Malley and Webb will not be the nominee.

 

[ivysaur12]

Which of the viable candidates will win isn't something you can be productive in forecasting a year out, though. For all I know it'll be Martin O'Malley or Jim Webb. You just never know at this point.

I can tell you with 100% certainty that Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb will not be the nominee.

 

[Konka]

Why do you keep posting this map? New Hampshire and Virginia are far from sure things, and Iowa/Colorado have consistently been more blue than either one for a while.

This is the first time I've posted it? Virginia has had a dramatic shift since 2008 and looks more like a lean dem and Hillary has been polling well there.

 

[Days like these...]

It shouldnt be, and that is why it is insanely important that a Democrat wins the White House.

The best chance this country has at taking money out of politics is through a liberal supreme court and getting political re-districting under control.

If Sanders supporters want to realistically have a socialist be competitive on the national stage they better not get all whiny and take their ball and go home when Sanders likely doesnt get the nomination.

Because Hilary will become their best chance to move toward a system that will give underdog candidates like Sanders a true fighting chance. Because undoing Citizens United through liberal court appointments and being in an advantageous position during the next redistricting process is the best first step true champions of election reform can hope for. Sitting out, voting third party or protest voting should be off the table.

I love how hilldawg fans lecture us about what we should do when she gets the nomination. I'd like to know what they're going to do when Bernie gets the nomination.

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Legitimate question: who's the Democrats' "backup plan?" I ask because a lot can happen in a year -- and I'm not talking about scandals, manufactured or otherwise, but something that causes her to be unable or unwilling to run. (Health problems, sudden desire to spend time with grandchildren instead, etc.)

Would it be someone like Biden, or is it more likely to be her VP pick (e.g., Booker or Castro)?

 

[Jonm1010]

Some people have deluded themselves into thinking its impossible for the Republicans to win to comfort themselves as they see the Republicans as alien. People also for some reason Hilary should be the next Dem nominee yonks ago and have just stuck with it so long their blind to anything else.

No one has said it is impossible but the probability is very unlikely.

I made this challenge in the last thread but go to 270 to win and find me a realistic path where the Republicans win? When you take into context historical numbers, current demographics and current polling it takes quite a bit of "if this, then that, and then maybe this could happen and then possibly this could also happen" and it all just becomes an unrealistic mess.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I love how hilldawg fans lecture us about what we should do when she gets the nomination. I'd like to know what they're going to do when Bernie gets the nomination.

He is not getting it so there is no need to know what we would do.

 

[Jonm1010]

I love how hilldawg fans lecture us about what we should do when she gets the nomination. I'd like to know what they're going to do when Bernie gets the nomination.

I'd vote for Bernie. Bernie is closer aligned to my views and I like a lot of his policies outside of trade. Although I don't think he would be a very effective president and could really fracture and hurt the Democratic party.

However Bernie's probability to win the nomination is ridiculously low and you sound delusional with your confidence.

 

[kirblar]

Legitimate question: who's the Democrats' "backup plan?" I ask because a lot can happen in a year -- and I'm not talking about scandals, manufactured or otherwise, but something that causes her to be unable or unwilling to run. (Health problems, sudden desire to spend time with grandchildren instead, etc.)

Would it be someone like Biden, or is it more likely to be her VP pick (e.g., Booker or Castro)?

It'd be Biden. Apparently a 1-term promise is being floated in discussions if he were to run.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

I love how hilldawg fans lecture us about what we should do when she gets the nomination. I'd like to know what they're going to do when Bernie gets the nomination.

He isn't gonna get it, but IF he did, be ready to lose the general as Fox and Co. pull him apart for being a self confirmed socialist. Bernie also won't get the black or hispanic vote on anywhere near the same level as Hillary.

 

[Toxi]

I just don't like her as a person. She has limited interpersonal skills and so that makes it super hard for me to back her. Obama, say what you want, he had a likability factor.

Hillary comes across as entitled and believes being President is her birth right.

Her husband was EXTREMELY likable, in fact he is my favorite POTUS (of my lifetime anyway)

"I want a President I could have a beer with."

For fuck's sakes, did we learn nothing from 2000 and 2004?

 

[ivysaur12]

Legitimate question: who's the Democrats' "backup plan?" I ask because a lot can happen in a year -- and I'm not talking about scandals, manufactured or otherwise, but something that causes her to be unable or unwilling to run. (Health problems, sudden desire to spend time with grandchildren instead, etc.)

Would it be someone like Biden, or is it more likely to be her VP pick (e.g., Booker or Castro)?

Biden would probably get a similar coalition to Hillary of minority voters, more centrist Democrats, and Amtrak riders.

 

[NeoXChaos]

No one has said it is impossible but the probability is very unlikely.

I made this challenge in the last thread but go to 270 to win and find me a realistic path where the Republicans win? When you take into context historical numbers, current demographics and current polling it takes quite a bit of "if this, then that, and then maybe this could happen and then possibly this could also happen" and it all just becomes an unrealistic mess.

 

[Jonm1010]

I don't trust Hillary any further than I could throw her. She will say whatever she has to, and make whatever deals she has to if they will get her into the white house. If she has to stab the American people in the back and let us rot to do it, I wouldn't put it past her. She cant even fake coming off as genuine, which is one of the easiest things to do. If she gets the nomination, I won't even bother voting.

For the countries sake I hope you don't live in a swing state so this sort of ignorance doesnt carry any real weight in actually harming the chances for a Democratic presidency again.

 

[danwarb]

That's a factor, but it's matched on the Republican side. Jeb has raised more money than she has (actually, I'm not sure if that's official campaign or super PAC, he entered the race kind of late to raise more via super PAC). Trump is apparently willing to drop bombs of money into the race, and the Koch brothers will probably be here too.

The same individuals and businesses will make up much of the funding for both Hillary and whoever the Republican nomination is.

 

[SolidSnakex]

I'm a bit confused: are we voting for policy, or as some sort of shallow American Idol-type contest? I keep seeing "she seems fake" and "I don't like her," etc.. as though that has some sort of bearing on how policies work.

This is the kind of petty "I need to be able to have a beer with him" shit that got us into trouble in 2000.

Why is "She seems fake" a bad reason? I'd say it's a pretty good reason considering you're voting for someone to run the country. If you don't think someone is honest about their stances, then why the hell would you want to vote for them? Obama was elected not because people simply liked him, but because he came across as being a genuine person that actually connected with voters that never were interested in voting before. Hillary is basically the complete opposite of him. The shit she's running on her Twitter and website are painful in how hard it's trying to reach young voters. And i'd imagine that it's having the opposite effect because it comes across as completely fake.

 

[ivysaur12]

Yeah, this is probably the most realistic path the Republicans have to win. It's challenging, though, because Virginia is becoming a lot bluer a lot faster and the parts of Virginia that are Democratic-leaning are exploding in population compared to the Republican-leaning parts of the state.

 

[Days like these...]

He is not getting it so there is no need to know what we would do.

You're arrogance is really off putting and the reason why many Bernie supporters won't vote for hilldawg. I'm also done voting for garbage just because its less garbage than other garbage. If she gets the nod I'll print a T-shirt that says 'Hillary '16 at least were getting f*cked by a democrat'

 

[kirblar]

Why is "She seems fake" a bad reason? I'd say it's a pretty good reason considering you're voting for someone to run the country. If you don't think someone is honest about their stances, then why the hell would you want to vote for them? Obama was elected not because people simply liked him, but because he came across as being a genuine person that actually connected with voters that never were interested in voting before. Hillary is basically the complete opposite of him. The shit she's running on her Twitter and website are painful in how hard it's trying to reach young voters. And i'd imagine that it's having the opposite effect because it comes across as completely fake.

Obama has put into place a number of policies during his lame-duck period that require a democratic successor in order to cement. If there's a GOP one, there's a good chance a number simply get wiped out because they're executive orders. Baking them in takes time.

 

[Konka]

You're arrogance is really off putting and the reason why many Bernie supporters won't vote for hilldawg. I'm also done voting for garbage just because its less garbage than other garbage. If she gets the nod I'll print a T-shirt that says 'Hillary '16 at least were getting f*cked by a democrat'

If his supporters are that petty and myopic then they probably deserve whatever they get.

 

[ElTopo]

Bernie is more likely to take the Democratic nomination at this point.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

You're arrogance is really off putting and the reason why many Bernie supporters won't vote for hilldawg. I'm also done voting for garbage just because its less garbage than other garbage. If she gets the nod I'll print a T-shirt that says 'Hillary '16 at least were getting f*cked by a democrat'

and what happens when Bernie drops out and tells everyone to vote Hillary?

Bernie is more likely to take the Democratic nomination at this point.

Not at all

 

[HylianTom]

I love how hilldawg fans lecture us about what we should do when she gets the nomination. I'd like to know what they're going to do when Bernie gets the nomination.

For primaries, I'm voting for the most unelectable GOP candidate with a shot at the nomination.

But for the general, I'm voting for whoever the Democratic nominee is.. because I understand the stakes and how this system works. I'm not going to throw a temper tantrum, especially if I live in a swing state, as I'm not willing to screw-over progressivism's long term viability if my fellow Democrats don't agree with me on the nominee.

Pretty simple, right?

 

[Konka]

Bernie is more likely to take the Democratic nomination at this point.

Provide a single fact to substantiate that claim.

 

[ivysaur12]

Why is "She seems fake" a bad reason? I'd say it's a pretty good reason considering you're voting for someone to run the country. If you don't think someone is honest about their stances, then why the hell would you want to vote for them? Obama was elected not because people simply liked him, but because he came across as being a genuine person that actually connected with voters that never were interested in voting before. Hillary is basically the complete opposite of him. The shit she's running on her Twitter and website are painful in how hard it's trying to reach young voters. And i'd imagine that it's having the opposite effect because it comes across as completely fake.

You realize she's not the one actually posting a tweet asking for responses in emojis, yes? I don't think her social media team is doing a good job, for what it's worth, but it's not like she's trying to rack her brain to come up with ways to be more "likable" and goes, aha, emojis!

I guess -- what's "fake"? If you've followed her through her career, her core principles haven't really changed, or have evolved in ways that are consistent with the party and times. There's a pretty consistent through-line for her motivations and beliefs, and even if you think they're too corporate-friendly or hawkish, it's not like she's running a campaign of saying anything to get elected. I mean, I get that's the narrative, but that also ignores, like, 37 years of being in the public eye.

 

[Jonm1010]

Virginia is going to be tough to go Red. Now compare that - which is probably the most realistic path for Republicans - to how much easier the road is for Democrats.

Its not even a contest.

Republicans have a huge uphill battle while Democrats just need to get a few swing states and its over.

 

[Days like these...]

If his supporters are that petty and myopic then they probably deserve whatever they get.

If people choose Hillary over Bernie yes we deserve what we get. I know I know supreme court justice. I got it.

 

[Advocatus Diaboli]

Why is "She seems fake" a bad reason? I'd say it's a pretty good reason considering you're voting for someone to run the country. If you don't think someone is honest about their stances, then why the hell would you want to vote for them? Obama not because people simply liked him, but because he came across as being a genuine person that actually connected with voters that never were interested in voting before. Hillary is basically the complete opposite of him. The shit she's running on her Twitter and website are painful in how hard it's trying to reach young voters. And i'd imagine that it's having the opposite effect because it comes across as completely fake.

Joe Biden stole my cookies once; I'd still vote for him. I also bro'd out with Lindsey Graham for a week, and I'd never consider him at the ballot box.

I see your point: you want someone with integrity, who leads with conviction, and who can be trusted to make good on campaign promises. On the other hand, that sort of thing can be empirically examined, considering Hillary's Senate record. (For instance, Donald Trump has no voting record; he could be part of Bernie Sanders' long con to disrupt the Republican party at this point.) Hillary's uncharismatic and wooden and has trouble connecting to the average American. I think talking to her one on one would be painful, whereas I could at least shoot the shit with Obama for an hour talking about basketball.

... but that doesn't actually matter in governing. Not much, anyway. The charisma needed to broker deals in Congress isn't the kind that's, I don't know, needed to participate in a pie baking contest at the Pawnee State Fair.

 

[jtb]

Bernie has made every indication that he will not be a petty, sore loser. (And he has absolutely no reason to be, anyways.) He'll endorse Hillary the moment he concedes.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

If people choose Hillary over Bernie yes we deserve what we get. I know I know supreme court justice. I got it.

Stomp your feet, take your toys. I got it.

Bernie has made every indication that he will not be a petty, sore loser. (And he has absolutely no reason to be, anyways.) He'll endorse Hillary the moment he concedes.

That isn't the problem it is his petty, sore loser fans.

 

[Zophar]

I don't think Clinton is guaranteed to win, but I can't see any realistic scenario where the GOP retakes the White House in 2016.

 

[G.ZZZ]

Apparently socialists policies are "simple solutions to complex problems not doable in real life".

America exceptionalism at its finest, nothing exist but america.

 

[Konka]

If people choose Hillary over Bernie yes we deserve what we get. I know I know supreme court justice. I got it.

You apparently don't "got it".

 

[ivysaur12]

Joe Biden stole my cookies once; I'd still vote for him. I also bro'd out with Lindsey Graham for a week, and I'd never consider him at the ballot box.

I see your point: you want someone with integrity, who leads with conviction, and who can be trusted to make good on campaign promises. On the other hand, that sort of thing can be empirically examined, considering Hillary's Senate record. (For instance, Donald Trump has no voting record; he could be part of Bernie Sanders' long con to disrupt the Republican party at this point.) Hillary's uncharismatic and wooden and has trouble connecting to the average American. I think talking to her one on one would be painful, whereas I could at least shoot the shit with Obama for an hour talking about basketball.

... but that doesn't actually matter in governing. Not much, anyway. The charisma needed to broker deals in Congress isn't the kind that's, I don't know, needed to participate in a pie baking contest at the Pawnee State Fair.

Also, for all of Obama's charisma, he's done a terrible job connecting with congressional Democrats and the animosity between this administration and congressional Democrats has become so pointed that I'm not sure if there's anything they can do to fix that rift during the final leg of his presidency.

 

[Days like these...]

Stomp your feet, take your toys. I got it.



That isn't the problem it is his petty, sore loser fans.

I am DONE voting for garbage because its less garbage than other garbage. Got it? Good.

 

[Jonm1010]

Apparently socialists policies are "simple solutions to complex problems not doable in real life".

America exceptionalism at its finest, nothing exist but america.

I think you took that out of context. His policies aren't doable under the current congressional structure. And that is very true.

Sanders isnt passing true Single Payer UHC, Free College tuition and robust safety net programs with a reluctant Democratic minority and a stonewalling Republican Majority in the House and likely Senate. He would be a lame duck for 4 years and then create a fracturing debate within the party about whether to support him for a second term or run someone against him IMO.

I wish we had a democratic party that wasn't that way and a government that would actually govern but unfortunately we don't.

 

[Arrogant Bastard]

I am DONE voting for garbage because its less garbage than other garbage. Got it? Good.

You have made it very clear, keep stomping your feet though. Hillary would be an extension of Obama, guess what, I would vote for him again.

You don't just get to roll in, I want my Bernie, if I cannot have my Bernie then I'm taking my toys home. Well I suppose you can, it is just exceedingly silly.

How would a Bernie POTUS be different than a Hillary one?

 

[The Technomancer]

Where are the Hillary voters/cheerleaders? I swear, I've never seen such lack of enthusiasm. Seems even Kerry had more excitement.

They exist in real life, I've encountered quite a few of them. They just aren't as likely to post online in the kind of circles you or I do

 

[Coolio McAwesome]

I don't think she'll win.

Donald Trump is getting people engaged in politics and bringing new eyes to political process. The record-setting ratings that the first GOP debate got should NOT be laughed off. It's not as though only Republicans support Trump. He resonates with independents as well.

Trump is not going to win the Republican nomination, but I don't think he'll run as a third-party candidate. What, then, will happen to all of his supporters? Many of them will latch on to whomever Trump eventually endorses. Trump is going to be a very important (and loud) voice in politics even after he loses the election. I think people are underestimating how he could effectively swing independent votes in the favor of a Republican candidate.

Everyone is looking forward to Trump running as a third-party candidate and fucking up the Republican party. I don't think it's going to happen. I think all of the attention that Trump is getting right now is going to eventually translate to more votes for the Republicans.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

Anyone who pays attention to politics knows a couple things:

1) Trump will not be the nominee. He'll flame out. Republicans always play footsy with wackos in the early part of the process. Herman Cain was frontrunner for the 2012 nomination for a time. The republicans will end up with an establishment type pick in the end. Someone like Jeb Bush (not sure if it'll be Jeb or not, but it won't be one of the cartoon characters).

2) Hillary is not guaranteed at all to be the nominee. She is the most likely candidate if you look at it now in 2015, but looking at things now in 2015 is completely pointless. You can't forecast politics a year in advance.

You may be very wrong this time around regarding Trump. He's just the right kind of nutjob where there just may really be enough who would be willing to support someone like him. He also has something that some of the other crazies lacked (and no I don't mean money), he has, in certain circles, a type of legitimacy or seriousness (Donald Trump and the word serious? Trust me, I know) about him where he's actually taken a bit more seriously or at his word than your typical loon. Many of us see disaster and an embarrassing campaign that just keeps on giving, but he's striking all the right chords with the people who are most excited to get out and vote in primaries. Herman Cain was always a sideshow, and something that the Republican party flirted with so as to not appear entirely racist, just as they did when they nominated Michael Steele as the head of the RNC, but quickly got rid of him the moment they felt the puppet started pulling his own strings.

As crazy as it seems, Donald Trump can win the Republican nomination this election cycle.

I don't think she'll win.

Donald Trump is getting people engaged in politics and bringing new eyes to political process. The record-setting ratings that the first GOP debate got should NOT be laughed off. It's not as though only Republicans support Trump. He resonates with independents as well.

Trump is not going to win the Republican nomination, but I don't think he'll run as a third-party candidate. What, then, will happen to all of his supporters? Many of them will latch on to whomever Trump eventually endorses. Trump is going to be a very important (and loud) voice in politics even after he loses the election. I think people are underestimating how he could effectively swing independent votes in the favor of a Republican candidate.

Everyone is looking forward to Trump running as a third-party candidate and fucking up the Republican party. I don't think it's going to happen. I think all of the attention that Trump is getting right now is going to eventually translate to more votes for the Republicans.

It will translate to more hatred of the Republican Party, because sooner or later people will start to realize what it means for someone like Trump to get what he desires in a Presidential candidate. The element you leave out in your equation is also the fact that Donald Trump cares more about Donald Trump than anything or anyone else. If you think that he's somehow going to make it easy, or comfortable, for Republicans to run a general election campaign, much less one that has his full support, then you're in for a very big surprise. He will do more harm than good, you can take that to the bank.

 

[dead souls]

I can tell you with 100% certainty that Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb will not be the nominee.

I don't know, maybe they're just biding their time...

 

[Manmademan]

Bernie is more likely to take the Democratic nomination at this point.

Hm. you wouldn't think google would be THAT hard to use, right

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

 

[120v]

Donald Trump is getting people engaged in politics and bringing new eyes to political process. The record-setting ratings that the first GOP debate got should NOT be laughed off. It's not as though only Republicans support Trump. He resonates with independents as well.

iirc McCain's acceptence speech at the 2008 RNC was the highest rated in history. that equated to votes... how?

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't know, maybe they're just biding their time...

Lying in wait! Just in case!

#Webbmentum2k16

 

[Hip Hop]

Has this ever been true in past pre-elections where a majority of people said "x president is guaranteed to win" and it actually happened?

 

[Jonm1010]

You may be very wrong this time around regarding Trump. He's just the right kind of nutjob where there just may really be enough who would be willing to support someone like him. He also has something that some of the other crazies lacked (and no I don't mean money), he has, in certain circles, a type of legitimacy or seriousness (Donald Trump and the word serious? Trust me, I know) about him where he's actually taken a bit more seriously or at his word than your typical loon. Many of us see disaster and an embarrassing campaign that just keeps on giving, but he's striking all the right chords with the people who are most excited to get out and vote in primaries. Herman Cain was always a sideshow, and something that the Republican party flirted with so as to not appear entirely racist, just as they did when they nominated Michael Steele as the head of the RNC, but quickly got rid of him the moment they felt the puppet started pulling his own strings.

As crazy as it seems, Donald Trump can win the Republican nomination this election cycle.

The other side to this coin is a Trump nomination will do more damage in one election cycle to latino support of the party then the party has done in decades.

It will be a galvanizing force for Hillary to latch onto and for the foreseeable future cement the Republican party as the anti-latino party and long-term, that is a party killer for the GOP given demographic trends.

 

[jtb]

I would assume that all that Biden support would sooner go to Hillary than to Bernie, as well, once he officially drops out of the race.

That isn't the problem it is his petty, sore loser fans.

Oh, I know. But the spoiler contingent will shrink and shrink as Bernie's chances fade and as the general grows nearer.