It will never happen to the extent some in this thread are hoping.
Consoles are tapping into new markets, so there will always be even more people interested in them.
Microsoft FY16 Q1: Xbox HW rev down 17%, live rev up 17%, XBL MAU users up 28% to 39M
- Thread starter Rymuth
- Start date
It will never happen to the extent some in this thread are hoping.
Consoles are tapping into new markets, so there will always be even more people interested in them.
But considering we're going to see a decline in console sales at the exact same time streaming media is exploding, it probably tells us the only people interested in using video game consoles to stream media are people who were going to buy the video game console in the first place, right?
The issue isn't that no one uses video game consoles to stream media. A lot of people do it. I do it. My PS3 has got a heck of a lot of more Netflix usage than anything else. But I'm a person who posts on a video game message board.
There's no reason for people who have little to no interest in video games in buying a video game console when there's a plethora of cheaper options that do the job just as well, if not better. Microsoft was counting on the opposite. They thought that video game consoles could be positioned as a living room hub that everyone would use, even if they don't care about video games. A lot of the original strategy for the Xbox One was based on that (see the NFL stuff, cable TV integration (which was another swing and a miss just as 'cable cutting' became a thing)). That horse has well and truly bolted.
The 360 was an unqualified success, even after the bumpy start and RROD horror. But in three years they've gone from the undisputed leader in the US to second place, and are looking at a 30-40% reduction in userbase. And for what, to chase a strategic goal that's no longer possible? And while they've been spending billions chasing a mirage, they've completely missed the boat on the biggest technology revolution since the PC (smartphones)?
1st Course
Member
This is Microsoft first Q with Bing profitable. Good stuff.
I wouldn't say so considering the gen is still young. This is on top of the fact that Nintendo plays a huge role (if not the biggest role) in the home console decline too.
There were people who weren't big gamers (or even gamers period for that matter) that bought a 360 late during the gen to mostly stream media -- this was even with MS at the time requiring an Xbox Live subscription to do so. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen late during this current gen as these consoles get even cheaper and possibly smaller/slimmer.
I wouldn't say this. Family heads for example who may be only interested in media could decide to get a console for games and media due to other (younger) family members caring about games.
Yes, MS did indeed think that they could get core gamers at the same time they could get "post 2011 Xbox 360 users". It wasn't a smart idea as the majority of people who buy consoles during the early part of the gen are really big gamers.
The Xbox One has become better for media since then even though MS has greatly reduced the media focus from Xbox One's advertising. I wouldn't be surprised to see it make a comeback late this gen. You mentioned the cable cutting trend and the Xbox One has become a solid box for that thanks to apps like Sling TV and the future update for DVR functionality with antenna TV.
They would be in a similar spot even if they didn't target media goals from the start in my opinion. PS3 caught up to the 360 even though the former had a one year head start (and far more positivity early in the gen) thanks to the Playstation brand being more popular worldwide. The gen was pretty much decided months before the PS4 and Xbox One were revealed when it became obvious that both consoles would release during the same year in my opinion. Only thing that would possibly be different is Xbox One being #1 in US but I don't think it would have been enough to play a huge role on worldwide sales.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if it's sub-500K. What are the combined NPD numbers for the past three months? Something along the lines of 600K? Rest of the world isn't really helping that much, so selling more than 1M over Q1 would be a feat. How much stock was there at the beginning of the quarter? I would wager plenty, probably enough to cover the sell-through. There were no significant new bundels, as the Halo one only started shipping recently.
Relatively speaking, how young is this gen? We are almost two years in what is probably going to be a five year generation. And if Xbox One sales have not already peaked, they will when Halo 5 launches. Will that spur Xbox One yearly figures over those of last year's? It's a coin toss.
Prototype Viktor
Member
And from now on it will be used 49% less
Hydrargyrus
Member
No numbers now?
Ha ha ha, oh wow!
Ha ha ha, oh wow!
One positive is that Kyle Orland (Ars Technica) can't make his clickbait shipment estimation articles now. Or maybe he will just make them even more hilarious now...
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
They're also not going to be showing Silver and Gold subscriptions separately but are just going to show how many people logged into LIVE.
Hmmm Engadget seems to have an entirely opposite view from most people here on GAF.
http://www.engadget.com/2015/10/22/xbox-live-monthly-active-q1/
Article actually implies that Sony is hiding their service numbers by reporting hardware sale numbers (which they apparently only break even on) and that they should be following MS by reporting service numbers.
Then the article says that the decrease in revenue is solely on phones.
Also they say that the 39 million number is for gold members. I thought that was just active users?
Hmmm... Interesting take.
http://www.engadget.com/2015/10/22/xbox-live-monthly-active-q1/
Article actually implies that Sony is hiding their service numbers by reporting hardware sale numbers (which they apparently only break even on) and that they should be following MS by reporting service numbers.
Then the article says that the decrease in revenue is solely on phones.
Also they say that the 39 million number is for gold members. I thought that was just active users?
Hmmm... Interesting take.
boredandlazy
Member
We have nothing to read into too much any more!
KurtSloane
Banned
It's a nonsense take, 39m users across the 360 install base and X1, that's supposed to be a good number?
Remember, with xbone, gold subscriptions encompass all profiles on the console. The gold silver split doesn't mean what it used to anymore.
Both games were released first on PC and then over almost a year later ported to consoles. Not very good examples imo
But if you compare AAA titles that launched at the same time on consoles and PCs then you will see that often the console versions leads in sales. Batman AK, Mad Max, MGS5, heck even Witcher 3 a formally known PC game sold more on consoles than on PCs this year. And I bet with Battlefront, Fallout 4, CoD, AC and so on nothing will change that fact.
Consoles are important for this industry no matter how much you hate these "garbage" boxes lol
DarkLordMalik
Member
This thread started with Xbox is doomed and has now turned into consoles are doomed. Seriously? =/
1st Course
Member
Where in the article do they imply that?
GribbleGrunger
Dreams in Digital
They can say what they like now, can't they. MS just gave them the freedom to do just that,
Hmmm looks like the author edited the part out. When i read this a while ago on my feedly feed it had a portion about that. Including that exact part in parantheses (that Sony only breaks even on hardware sales).
I'm guessing they took it out because they couldn't verify that Sony was only breaking even or that the information was flat out incorrect?
Yeah, I'm not seeing it either...
Nightengale
Member
Sony hiding their active users ayyyy lmao.
PSN+SEN has 65 million active users, Engadget. Go look it up.
PSN+SEN has 65 million active users, Engadget. Go look it up.
Nightengale
Member
Probably realises he's wrong after doing further due diligence? Sony has gone on record multiple times saying they're profitable on a hardware level.
That's what I'm guessing. So strange that they stealth edited that out and didn't even put something at the end stating so. Usually journalists do that.
EDIT: Ahhhh my bad. It's my mistake I just noticed where I saw it. It was one of the dumb comments responding to the article. It's late and I got confused with it actually being in the article. Dumb me.
PhantomVash808
Member
I don't know if anyone notice this but according to Game Informer, Microsoft will not be using console shipments as its primary metric for success beginning with this quarter, we have been told. The company is more focused on engagement, leading it to choose Xbox Live usership as its leading statistic.
Very interesting
http://www.gameinformer.com/b/news/archive/2015/10/22/xbox-hardware-sales-down-xbox-live-user-up-to-39-million.aspx
Very interesting
http://www.gameinformer.com/b/news/archive/2015/10/22/xbox-hardware-sales-down-xbox-live-user-up-to-39-million.aspx
So in a little more than 1 year MS went from reporting 360/Xbone split shipped numbers to Xbox family shipped numbers to nothing at all?
When they stop revealing objective numbers, and start using some weird PR metric instead, you know things have to be really bad.
When they stop revealing objective numbers, and start using some weird PR metric instead, you know things have to be really bad.
I mean it does make sense. Subscriptions is continuing revenue that is very easily quantifiable whereas console hardware sales only represent continuing revenue in an indirect way (future game sales, possible subscriptions, etc.).
So in a little more than 1 year MS went from reporting 360/Xbone split shipped numbers to Xbox family shipped numbers to nothing at all?
When they stop revealing objective numbers, and start using some weird PR metric instead, you know things have to be really bad.
Well it's not totally PR. As long as they do end up giving exact numbers for actual Gold subscribers it's actually a pretty good metric for how well they are doing. Fans put in _______ hours and made _______ headshots into x game would be PR.
For example, if MS sold 100 million Xboxes and none of those people bought games or subscribed to Gold, they would actually lose money, and that number would be meaningless. But a gold subscriber is paying them a monthly fee and that is easily accountable.
However, they are reporting only number of XBL users, many of which could easily be free users that contribute nothing except traffic. Now, if they reported the number of Gold subscribers, that would be a good judge of revenue.
Yeah in my post before this one I noted that if they started giving clear numbers for just gold subscribers it would actually be a good indicator. Mucking it up with silver members would make it a much more useless metric.
Also would be interesting to note that the annual subscription goes on sale for $34.99 fairly often. So we don't really know how many of those subs would be giving MS $59.99 a year and how many are at the discounted rate.
Ifs and buts candy and nuts.
It's pretty clear they are reporting 'Xbox live family numbers'.
Edit: sorry, you clarified in the mean time.
I don't remember MS ever disclosing the number of Gold subscriptions, only the total number of Xbox Live users. (Same with Sony, IIRC.)
Nightengale
Member
Sony does this gen. It's basically 50% of the PS4 install base. Earlier this year they mentioned over 10 million Plus (during the time they sold over 20mil PS4s)
If they were giving out exact Gold subscribers numbers, I'd agree with you, but where in the published reports are them?
I must be blind, but all I see is "Xbox Live monthly active users", which frankly is meaningless metric.
Actually, I think I am among those 39 million, as my 3yo daughter plays Angry Birds on my ancient Nokia Windows 7 phone.
That's how meaningful that statistic is.
It's not really meaningless, they have 39 million active users that they can monetize, Gold isn't the only way to do that anymore.
They could have monetized Silver accounts in 2007 as well, nothing has really changed.
travisbickle
Member
It's just another metric that's going to slowdown over time because the One's not as popular as the 360. I honestly think the only reason they chose it is because it's around the inevitable 30 million mark Sony will announce after Christmas.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Keep dreaming. AAA gaming will be in huge trouble if consoles die.
Sure, but keyword here is "can": a gold subscriber is surely giving them his/her money right now, an active user potentially is not. How many users are there in a situation like in the post just above yours?
Shipped hw numbers are a good metric, quarterly increase (or decrease) of gold subscribers are a good metric, xbox live active users are definitely not.
Go_Ly_Dow
Member
New thread?
And what happens when that number goes down?
They can't rely on the sizeable chunk still on 360s forever.
Things definitely changed, back then games weren't even available digitally. The consumer also changed since then, digital purchases are more common now, that includes games, movies, music, & whatever can be found in the MS store.
Ask yourself, why did MS focus on TV so much before launch? They wanted people to buy the console and keep it on at all times, someone may watch a movie on TV, like it, & then go to the MS store immediately to impulse buy the sequel, that's one example of consumer monetization that is easier to do now than back in 2007.
Sure, not every active silver user would bring money to MS, 39 million is the total potential users that can be monetized, Apple doesn't get any money from you if you're just an iTunes member, that doesn't mean they don't care how many iTunes users are active, more users means a bigger pool of consumers to monetize.
They could sell the console at a profit. Oh wait, they already tried that.
KurtSloane
Banned
In any instance the fact that MS have hidden sales of hardware numbers and focused on the only "positive" in monthly active users (not subscribers) only points to an attempt at spin, not a change of focus as to what constitutes "success" in the modern era.
TBiddy
Member
You are crazy, if you really think that.